State of the Day - Maryland

Maryland is and has always been a little bit of both North and South. Politically, it has produced quite a few colorful characters. It has changed over the past century from a manufacturing and fishing state centered on Baltimore to a suburban state. Baltimore still dominates the state in many ways and is the driver behind the state's long Democratic tradition. Democrats are also helped by a 29% African-American population that votes overwhelmingly Democratic. The Washington suburbs in Montgomery and Prince George's County have become heavily Democratic as well. Maryland is now one of the most Democratic states and that does not look likely to change any time soon. The state's safe Democratic majority produces many influential Democrats such as Governor Martin O'Malley, Senator Barbara Mikulski, and House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer.

Republicans do hope to take the Governor’s Mansion back in 2010 with a comeback from former Governor Robert Ehrlich, whose 2002 victory made him the first Republican governor since Spiro Agnew resigned in 1969. However, this seems like a long shot. They also should take back the Eastern Shore seat they shamefully lost in 2008.

President – 10 Electoral Votes

Maryland has not come close to going Republican since George H.W. Bush won it a generation ago. Only in a Republican landslide will the final result here look even somewhat respectable.

The primary here will be February 14, the week after Super Tuesday. This could make it an important state if there is still a race. Theoretically, Mitt Romney should do well here although there is certainly an opening for a more socially conservative candidate. An underfunded Mike Huckabee won 29% here in 2008 even though it was obvious by that point John McCain would be the nominee. LEAN DEMOCRAT.

Governor – Martin O’Malley (D)

In 2002, Robert Ehrlich became the first Republican to be elected Maryland Governor since Spiro Agnew in 1966. He put up respectable poll numbers despite a sometimes rocky relationship with the Democratic state legislature and in many ways positioned himself well for reelection in 2006. However, O’Malley tied him to George W. Bush and was able to send him away in a tidal wave. O'Malley struggled with low job approval numbers after raising taxes in an attempt to get the budget situation under control. His numbers have rebounded somewhat, although the race has been close throughout the summer.

O'Malley seems to have opened up a 5-10 point lead in the last month. In a state like Maryland where the default option is Democrat, this makes it look like O'Malley is in pretty good shape. LIKELY DEMOCRAT.

Prediction: Gov. O’Malley (D) 54%, Ehrlich (R) 46%

Senior Senator – Barbara Mikulski (R)

One can almost forget that Mikulski faces reelection this year. Queen's County Commissioner Eric Wargotz does not have the slightest chance of ousting Mikulski, though her margin might be a bit reduced. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

Prediction: Sen. Mikulski (D) 61%, Wargotz (R) 39%

Junior Senator – Ben Cardin (D)

Cardin needed a good Democratic wind to defeat Michael Steele (remember when he was hot?) for this seat in 2006. There is no reason to believe that Steele (whose credibility is totally shot by now), or anybody else, could mount a serious challenge in 2012. LIKELY DEMOCRAT.

House 1 – Frank Kratovil (D)

The Eastern Shore seat in Maryland should never vote for a Democrat. John McCain won 59% in this district two years ago. Kratovil needed more than just a good Democratic climate to win. His breakthrough came when hard right Republican State Senator Andy Harris knocked off the rather liberal Rep. Wayne Gilchrest in the Republican primary. Gilchrest endorsed Kratovil and took enough Republicans with him to propel the Democrat to a 49-48 win.

Harris is back looking for another shot and has come reasonably close to Kratovil in the funding race. Both have raised over two million dollars. This has been an especially nasty race. Kratovil calls Harris "extreme" and has run ads calling him pro-pollution, pro-cancer, and anti-children. I'm not making this up. He has also hitting Harris over his idea for a 23% national sales tax, without bothering to mention that that is part of plan to eliminate the income tax. For his part, Harris has tried to tie Kratovil to very unpopular national Republicans.

Kratovil has opposed the big ticket Democratic agenda items and has made himself as tough a target as he can. Harris will have to overcome the stigma of his loss from two years ago. The radically different climate helps, as does the disappearance of Gilchrest from the scene. Kratovil is behind even in Democratic polls and a neutral Monmouth University poll showed Harris ahead 53-42. Harris is not an ideal Republican nominee, but he should be good enough to restore order here. LEAN REPUBLICAN.

House 2 – Dutch Ruppersberger (D)

The district isn’t totally Democratic, but Ruppersberger appears safe against Republican nominee Marcelo Cardarelli. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

House 3 – John Sarbanes (D)

The old Maryland name has no serious Republican challenger, with all due respect to GOP nominee Jim Wilhelm. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

House 4 – Donna Edwards (D)

If Edwards loses I’ll wear a Peyton Manning jersey for a year. Republican Robert Broadus has nothing working for him. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

House 5 – Steny Hoyer (D)

Charles Lollar is a surprisingly competitive GOP nominee, but he has no chance anyway. The only real interest here is what will happen to the Majority Leader after the election, especially if Democrats lose the House. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

House 6 – Roscoe Bartlett (R)

Bartlett never bothers to fundraise much, but it does not matter in this district. Democrat Andrew Duck would have a better chance by quacking around the district. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 7 – Elijah Cummings (D)

Moving on, Republican Frank Mirabile has put $100 of his own money into this campaign. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

House 8 – Chris Van Hollen (D)

This seat is nearly as Democratic as Cummings’s, and Van Hollen is free to concentrate on other races as head of the DCCC since he doesn't need to worry about Republican Michael Phillips. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

House Predictions: 6 Democrats, 2 Republicans…+1 REPUBLICAN.