State of the Day - Michigan

Michigan was originally frontier settled by Yankees who made the state overwhelmingly Republican through the 1920's. The state became an industrial center, first in lumber and then for automobiles, attracting immigrants from abroad and blacks from the South. Democrats surged here in the 1930's as unions flexed their muscles. Democrats dominated here for thirty years and built a large welfare state. The automobile industry collapsed in the 1970's and ever since then Michigan's big manufacturing economy has suffered. The state (with the notable exception of the City of Detroit) recovered as taxes were lowered and union membership declined in the 1980's and 1990's, helping the economy to diversify. However, the auto industry totally collapsed again in the 2000's and the state has essentially been in a recession since 2001. The big three auto companies collapsed under the weight of fuel effiency standards and big union contracts, finally ending in the bankruptcy of GM and Chysler in 2008-2009. Democrats have a big base in what is left of the City of Detroit and the heavily unionized, suffering industrial towns, while Republicans dominate the rest of Outstate Michigan and the Upper Peninsula. The Detroit suburbs hold the balance of power. The balance usually tilts just a bit to the left of center, though Republicans remain very competitive.

Republicans look in good shape to make gains in 2010. They look virtually certain to regain the Governor’s Mansion. In addition, the GOP finds itself in excellent shape to take over two House seats with an outside shot at picking up two more. Democrats, thanks in large part to mismanagement of the state, find themselves on the defensive, and have only a long shot of picking up one House seat.

Michigan – 17 Electoral Votes

Michigan has long been near the middle of the American political spectrum, but just enough to the left for George W. Bush to lose it twice while winning narrow national victories. Barack Obama won 57% here, four points better than his national showing. This may the one state where Obama’s bailout of General Motors and Chrysler would actually help him, though his statewide approval rating is in the mid-40’s. The Republicans could easily win here, however, if they won a decent sized national victory. At this point, Obama looks like he would lose by about how much he won by in 2008, which would put Michigan right on the dividing line.

Mitt Romney’s father was Governor here, and that could give Romney a boost if he is the nominee. He would certainly be favored in a primary. Romney won the 2008 primary, but only by 39%-30% over John McCain. The state's open primary would probably work against Sarah Palin. TOSSUP DEMOCRAT.

Governor – Jennifer Granholm (D)

Granholm finds herself term-limited out of office, which is just as well since she could not win another term anyway. Democrats nominated Lansing Mayor Virg Bernero, who seemingly offers more of the same high tax, pro-union policies that have gotten Michigan in trouble in the first place.. Republicans nominated venture capitalist Rick Snyder. Snyder has held huge leads in every poll. There hasn't even been a single outlier poll that showed Bernero within single digits. Snyder will win easily. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

Prediction: Snyder (R) 59%, Bernero (D) 40%

Senior Senator – Carl Levin (D)

Levin may see some competition in 2014 if it is a huge Republican year, but otherwise this seat is his for as long as he wants it. LIKELY DEMOCRAT.

Junior Senator – Debbie Stabenow (D)

Stabenow has an advantage, but will probably see strong competition, especially if Barack Obama continues to drag down his party in 2012. Tea Partier Chad Dewey has already announced his candidacy, but Republicans will have to do better than that. Former Governor John Engler or Secretary of State Terri Land would probably start off as even money bets to win. LEAN DEMOCRAT.

House 1 – Bart Stupak (D)

Stupak took a good deal of grief for his role in the passage of the Obama health care bill, and decided to retire rather than face a difficult reelection in this very marginal Northern Michigan/Upper Peninsula seat. Democrats nominated State Rep. Gary McDowell to replace him.

McDowell is trying to run as a Stupak clone, touting his Second Amendment bona fides. However, unlike Stupak he makes no reference in his material to being pro-life. He also lukewarmly supports the health care bill, which is probably not a great stance here. His biggest immediate problem is anemic fundraising, with less than $150,000 total raised.

Republicans should really win this seat, but they have some problems. Physician Dan Benishek won the primary by 15 votes. He identifies as a Tea Party candidate and is running on cutting spending, cracking down on the Federal Reserve, and calling McDowell a politician. For his part, McDowell seems to have resorted to attacking Benishek personally, ripping him for inappropriately claiming expenditures. Luckily for Benishek, a promised "Tea Party" third party challenge never really materialized. Benishek had a huge lead in an August We Ask America poll, but two polls, one independent (EPIC-MRA) and one Democratic (The Hill/Penn, Schoen & Berland) show a very narrow lead for Benishek. I think he has the edge in a year like 2010, despite his problems. LEAN REPUBLICAN.

House 2 – Pete Hoekstra (R)

Hoekstra gave up this seat in an unsuccessful run for Governor. He will be replaced by State Rep. Bill Huizenga, who will defeat token Democrat Fred Johnson in this mostly Republican seat. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 3 – Vernon Ehlers (R)

Ehlers is retiring from this Grand Rapids seat. State Rep. Justin Amash, backed heavily by the Club for Growth, won the Republican primary. Democrat Pat Miles is running surprisingly vigorously in this Republican leaning seat. His big problem is that his party label is a killer here, which Miles proves by running as a “non-partisan voice”. He has said he will not support Nancy Pelosi for Speaker of the House.

Amash is probably going to win this given the year, but it speaks volumes to his appeal that this one isn't on ice. While local polling has Amash ahead, he is not over 50%. He definitely has the potential to lose this seat unnecessarily in the future thanks to a hard edge ideological approach. LIKELY REPUBLICAN.

House 4 - Dave Camp (R)

Camp easily held this marginal seat through the last two disastrous cycles and can cruise this time against token Democrat Jerry Campbell. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 5 – Dale Kildee (D)

Redistricting is a much bigger threat to Kildee than Republican John Kupiec. SAFE DEMOCRAT.
House 6 – Fred Upton (R)

Democrats should really have fought for this seat in the last two cycles, but instead nominated the loud but outmatched Don Cooney, who is back for another tilt at the windmills in 2010. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 7 – Mark Schauer (D)

Schauer took advantage of a huge Democratic wave and a Republican incumbent way too conservative for this district to edge out a narrow win in this marginal seat in the southern part of the state. That Republican, Tim Walberg, is back for another shot in 2010.

Schauer’s biggest problem is that he has cheerfully supported the most controversial parts of the Obama agenda, namely health care, cap and trade (doubly unpopular in Michigan), and the stimulus. For a freshman in this district, it automatically makes him vulnerable. Also, he did not manage to get a majority in winning this seat two years ago.

Walberg is still who he was last time, an ideological conservative with backing from the Club for Growth. Of course, that’s a better thing this time around. Still, Schauer is scoring points by attacking Walberg for wanting to privatize Social Security.

Walberg is not a good fit for the district, but neither is Schauer. Schauer has a ton of money, but Walberg has enough to compete. I’m not sold on Walberg, as this is a district that really should be on ice for the GOP about now, but I naturally think this will turn out to be a vote against Schauer and his party. Walberg led in polling througout the year, but Schauer tied in a late September poll and led in a recent local media poll. This is too close to call. TOSSUP REPUBLICAN.

House 8 - Mike Rogers (R)

Like Upton, Rogers easily survived two bad years in a marginal district and is safe in a good GOP year against underfunded Democrat Lance Enderle. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 9 – Gary Peters (D)

Peters won this marginal suburban Detroit district in 2008 with a smashing 52-43 victory over Republican incumbent Joe Knollenberg. He’s obviously vulnerable in this environment, but he starts off from a better place than Schauer.

The Republicans' bigger problem is their candidate Andew “Rocky” Raczkowski. When last seen, he was receiving a whipping from Carl Levin in 2002. While he is quite the fundriser, he has asked to see President Obama’s birth certificate, which seriously reduces the chances he can win over the independent voters he needs to take the seat. As a Republican, people like this irritate me. Unlike some of his fellow Republican challengers this year, Raczkowski will need a huge wave to win this election. LIKELY DEMOCRAT.

House 10 – Candice Miller (R)

Miller is becoming a force in the House Republican Conference and has no real opposition in 2010, with all due respect to Democratic nominee Henry Yanez. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 11 – Thaddeus McCotter (R)

McCotter received only 51% in 2008 against a fifth tier candidate. This drew him a second tier candidate this time, Natalie Mosher. Unfortunately for her, the political climate precludes her from winning. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 12 – Sander Levin (D)

Republican Don Volaric is the political equivalent of the 2003 Detroit Tigers. SAFE DEMOCRAT.
House 13 – Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick (D)

Kilpatrick lost the primary to State Senator Hansen Clarke, mostly due to the fallout from the multiple felony convictions of her son, former Detroit Mayor “Classy” Kwame Kilpatrick. Clarke will easily defeat Republican John Hauler in a district which gave Obama 84%. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

House 14 – John Conyers (D)

Unlike Kilpatrick, Conyers had no trouble from a relative’s felony conviction. In his case, it was his wife, former Detroit Councilwoman Monica Conyers, who pled guilty to taking bribes. I guess that is what 46 years of seniority does for you. Republican Don Ukrainec is a sacrificial lamb. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

House 15 – John Dingell (D)

Dingell has been in the House so long Conyers used to work for him. In 55 years, he has never had a competitive general election. His lowest percentage was 59%, in 1994. He has a vigorous challenge this year from Rob Steele, who is trying to hammer Dingell on his seniority and the health care bill. A poll by an outfit called Rossman team made waves three weeks ago when it showed Dingell behind. Other independent polls have shown Dingell well ahead.

I don't see much chance of Dingell losing. This Suburban Detroit/Ann Arbor seat is very Democratic, enough to where it should still be safe even in a wave. Steele is touting an endorsement from Sarah Palin. If that helps him in a district where Obama received 68%, then I'll take Palin seriously as an electable Presidential candidate. LIKELY DEMOCRAT.

House Predictions: 9 Republicans, 6 Democrats…+2 REPUBLICANS.