Final Predictions For 2010 Midterm Election

As promised, here is a look at our final predictions for the 2010 midterm elections.

Summary

Governors: 30-20 Republicans, Republicans +6 (possible range GOP +4-9)
Senate: 51-49 Democrats, Republicans +8 (possible range GOP +5-9)
House: 224-211 Republicans, Republicans +45 (possible range GOP +29-59)

Continue reading below for a race-by-race list of all Governors, Senate and House races. Also, check out our guide for watching the election results tonight.

Governors

Current: 26 Democrats, 24 Republican
Projection: 31 Republicans, 19 Democrats, Republicans +7
Best Democratic Scenario: 28 Republicans, 22 Democrats, Republicans +4
Best Republican Scenario: 33 Republicans, 17 Democrats, Republicans +9

Seats Not Up for Election: 7 Democrats, 6 Republicans

*Note: I am counting Rhode Island independent Lincoln Chafee as a Democrat and predicting he will win his state's gubernatorial election.

Safe Democrat (3)
Arkansas (Mike Beebe)
Maryland (Martin O’Malley)
New York (David Paterson retiring)

Likely Democrat (2)
New Hampshire (John Lynch)
Rhode Island (Donald Carcieri retiring)

Lean Democrat (5)
California (Arnold Schwarzenegger retiring)
Colorado (Bill Ritter retiring)
Hawaii (Linda Lingle retiring)
Massachusetts (Deval Patrick)
Minnesota (Tim Pawlenty retiring)

Toss Up Democrat (2)
Oregon (Ted Kulongoski retiring)
Vermont (Jim Douglas retiring)

Toss Up Republican (3)
Connecticut (M. Jodi Rell retiring)
Florida (Charlie Crist retiring)
Ohio (Ted Strickland)

Lean Republican (1)
Illinois (Pat Quinn)

Likely Republican (4)
Georgia (Sonny Perdue retiring)
Pennsylvania (Ed Rendell retiring)
Texas (Rick Perry)
Wisconsin (James Doyle retiring)

Safe Republican (17)
Alabama (Bob Riley retiring)
Alaska (Sean Parnell)
Arizona (Jan Brewer)
Idaho (C.L. “Butch” Otter)
Iowa (Chet Culver)
Kansas (Mark Parkinson retiring)
Maine (John Baldacci retiring)
Michigan (Jennifer Granholm retiring)
Nebraska (Dave Heineman)
Nevada (Jim Gibbons retiring)
New Mexico (Bill Richardson retiring)
Oklahoma (Brad Henry retiring)
South Carolina (Mark Sanford retiring)
South Dakota (Mike Rounds retiring)
Tennessee (Phil Bredesen retiring)
Utah special (Gary Herbert)
Wyoming (Dave Freudenthal retiring)

Senate

Current: 59 Democrats, 41 Republicans
Projections: 51 Democrats, 49 Republicans, Republicans +8
Best Case Democratic Scenario: 54 Democrats, 46 Republicans, Republicans +5
Best Case Republican Scenario: 50 Democrats, 50 Republicans, Republicans +9
Seats Not Up for Election: 40 Democrats, 23 Republicans

*The situation in Alaska defies the physics of this table. I am predicting a narrow victory for Lisa Murkowski as a write in over Republican Joe Miller in Alaska. In the last 24 hours, Murkowski said that she would caucus with the Republicans if she is elected. Thus, in the table below, she is counted as a Republican. I do not believe Democrat Scott McAdams can win this race.

Safe Democrat (7)
Delaware special (Ted Kaufman retiring)
Hawaii (Daniel Inouye)
Maryland (Barbara Mikulski)
New York (Charles Schumer)
New York special (Kirsten Gillibrand)
Oregon (Ron Wyden)
Vermont (Patrick Leahy)

Likely Democrat (1)
Connecticut (Christopher Dodd retiring)

Lean Democrat (2)
California (Barbara Boxer)
West Virginia special (Carte Goodwin retiring)

Toss Up Democrat (1)
Washington (Patty Murray)

Toss Up Republican (4)
Alaska (Lisa Murkowski*)
Colorado (Michael Bennet)
Illinois (Roland Burris retiring)
Nevada (Harry Reid)

Lean Republican (1)
Pennsylvania (Arlen Specter retiring)

Likely Republican (1)
Wisconsin (Russell Feingold)

Safe Republican (20)
Alabama (Richard Shelby)
Arizona (John McCain)
Arkansas (Blanche Lincoln)
Florida (George LeMieux retiring)
Georgia (Johnny Isakson)
Idaho (Mike Crapo)
Indiana (Evan Bayh retiring)
Iowa (Charles Grassley)
Kansas (Sam Brownback retiring)
Kentucky (Jim Bunning retiring)
Louisiana (David Vitter)
Missouri (Christopher “Kit” Bond retiring)
New Hampshire (Judd Gregg retiring)
North Carolina (Richard Burr)
North Dakota (Byron Dorgan retiring)
Ohio (George Voinovich retiring)
Oklahoma (Tom Coburn)
South Carolina (Jim DeMint)
South Dakota (John Thune)
Utah (Robert Bennett retiring)

House

Current: 256 Democrats, 179 Republicans (includes 2 vacancies assigned to party that previously held seat)
Projection: 224 Republicans, 211 Democrats, Republicans +45
Best Case Democratic Scenario: 227 Democrats, 208 Republicans, Republicans +29
Best Case Republican Scenario: 238 Republicans, 197 Democrats, Republicans +59

For the sake of brevity, if a race is rated safe, it is not listed.

Safe Democrat (121)

Likely Democrat (57)
AR-4 (Mike Ross)
CA-18 (Dennis Cardoza)
CA-47 (Loretta Sanchez)
CO-7 (Ed Perlmutter)
CT-1 (John Larson)
CT-2 (Joe Courtney)
CT-4 (Jim Himes)
CT-5 (Chris Murphy)
DE-AL (Michael Castle retiring)
GA-12 (John Barrow)
IL-8 (Melissa Bean)
IA-1 (Bruce Braley)
IA-2 (Dave Loebsack)
IA-3 (Leonard Boswell)
KY-3 (John Yarmuth)
LA-2 (Joseph Cao)
ME-2 (Michael Michaud)
MA-4 (Barney Frank)
MA-5 (Niki Tsongas)
MA-6 (John Tierney)
MI-9 (Gary Peters)
MI-15 (John Dingell)
MN-1 (Tim Walz)
MN-7 (Collin Peterson)
MS-2 (Bennie Thompson)
MO-3 (Russ Carnahan)
MO-5 (Emanuel Cleaver)
NJ-6 (Dave Pallone)
NJ-12 (Rush Holt)
NM-3 (Ben Ray Lujan)
NY-2 (Steve Israel)
NY-4 (Carolyn McCarthy)
NY-13 (Michael McMahon)
NY-22 (Maurice Hinchey)
NY-25 (Dan Maffei)
NY-27 (Brian Higgins)
NC-4 (David Price)
NC-11 (Heath Shuler)
NC-13 (Brad Miller)
OH-10 (Dennis Kucinich)
OH-13 (Betty Sutton)
OK-2 (Dan Boren)
OR-1 (David Wu)
OR-4 (Peter DeFazio)
PA-4 (Jason Altmire)
PA-13 (Allyson Schwartz)
PA-17 (Tim Holden)
RI-1 (Patrick Kennedy retiring)
TN-5 (Jim Cooper)
TX-15 (Ruben Hinojosa)
TX-25 (Lloyd Doggett)
TX-27 (Solomon Ortiz)
UT-2 (Jim Matheson)
WA-6 (Norm Dicks)
WA-9 (Adam Smith)
WV-3 (Nick Rahall)
WI-3 (Ron Kind)

Lean Democrat (19)
AZ-7 (Raul Grijalva)
CA-20 (Jim Costa)
FL-22 (Ron Klein)
GA-2 (Sanford Bishop)
ID-1 (Walt Minnick)
IL-10 (Mark Kirk retiring)
IN-2 (Joe Donnelly)
KY-6 (Ben Chandler)
ME-1 (Chellie Pingree)
MN-8 (James Oberstar)
NJ-3 (John Adler)
NM-1 (Martin Heinrich)
NC-2 (Bob Etheridge)
NC-7 (Mike McIntyre)
NC-8 (Larry Kissell)
PA-12 (Mark Critz)
VA-9 (Rick Boucher)
VA-11 (Gerald Connolly)
WA-2 (Rick Larsen)

Toss Up Democrat (14)
CO-3 (John Salazar)
HI-1 (Charles Djou)
IL-17 (Phil Hare)
MA-10 (Bill Delahunt retiring)
MS-4 (Gene Taylor)
MO-4 (Ike Skelton)
NY-1 (Tim Bishop)
NY-19 (John Hall)
ND-AL (Earl Pomeroy)
OH-6 (Charlie Wilson)
OH-18 (Zack Space)
PA-8 (Patrick Murphy)
SD-AL (Stephanie Herseth Sandlin)
TN-4 (Lincoln Davis)

Toss Up Republican (16)
AL-2 (Bobby Bright)
AZ-5 (Harry Mitchell)
AZ-8 (Gabrielle Giffords)
CA-11 (Jerry McNerney)
IL-14 (Bill Foster)
MI-7 (Mark Schaeur)
MS-1 (Travis Childers)
NH-2 (Paul Hodes retiring)
NY-20 (Scott Murphy)
NY-23 (Bill Owens)
NY-24 (Michael Arcuri)
OR-5 (Kurt Schrader)
PA-10 (Christopher Carney)
TX-23 (Ciro Rodriguez)
WV-1 (Alan Mollohan retiring)
WI-7 (David Obey retiring)

Lean Republican (12)
AR-1 (Marion Berry retiring)
FL-12 (Adam Putnam retiring)
IN-9 (Baron Hill)
MI-1 (Bart Stupak retiring)
NM-2 (Harry Teague)
NV-3 (Dina Titus)
OH-16 (John Boccieri)
PA-7 (Joe Sestak retiring)
PA-11 (Paul Kanjorski)
SC-5 (John Spratt)
VA-5 (Tom Perriello)
WA-3 (Brian Baird retiring)

Likely Republican (34)
AL-5 (Parker Griffith retiring)
AZ-1 (Ann Kirkpatrick)
AZ-3 (John Shadegg retiring)
AR-2 (Vic Snyder retiring)
CA-3 (Dan Lungren)
CA-44 (Ken Calvert)
CA-45 (Mary Bono Mack)
CO-4 (Betsy Markey)
FL-2 (Allen Boyd)
FL-8 (Alan Grayson)
FL-24 (Suzanne Kosmas)
FL-25 (Mario Diaz-Balart retiring)
GA-8 (Jim Marshall)
IL-11 (Debbie Halvorson)
IN-8 (Brad Ellsworth retiring)
KS-3 (Dennis Moore retiring)
LA-3 (Charles Melancon retiring)
MD-1 (Frank Kratovil)
MN-6 (Michele Bachmann)
NE-2 (Lee Terry)
NH-1 (Carol Shea-Porter)
NY-29 (VACANT)
OH-1 (Steve Driehaus)
OH-12 (Pat Tiberi)
OH-15 (Mary Jo Kilroy)
PA-3 (Kathy Dahlkemper)
PA-6 (Jim Gerlach)
PA-15 (Charlie Dent)
TN-6 (Bart Gordon retiring)
TN-8 (John Tanner retiring)
TX-17 (Chet Edwards)
VA-2 (Glenn Nye)
WA-8 (Dave Reichert)
WI-8 (Steve Kagen)

Safe Republican (162)