State of the Day - Minnesota

Minnesota has a long tradition of clean politics and great (mostly liberal) leadership. The state was originally settled by German and Scandanavian immigrants who have defined the state's culture ever since. Politically, Minnesota has always been economically liberal and open to third parties. The Farmer-Labor Party dominated state politics in the 1920's and 1930's before merging with the Democrats in 1944. The DFL would go on to dominate Minnesota politics while the state grew smartly. Culturally, the state is something akin to Mr. Clean with high levels of political participation. Both parties have a tendency to nominate extreme candidates, and that has helped continue the tradition of high vote totals for third party candidates like Former Governor (1999-2003) Jesse Ventura. He won mostly through suburban support, which swung to the Republicans in their victories for Senate and Governor in 2002 but preferred Democrats in 2006 and 2008. Today Minnesota is just to the left of center of American politics.

This state could actually be a relative success story for Democrats in 2010. While their hopes of knocking off lightning rod Michele Bachmann seem long at this point, Democrats are in excellent shape to reclaim the Governor’s Mansion. Republicans are seriously contesting three Democratic House seats, but their efforts seem unlikely to pay off.

Note: The Minnesota Democrats are actually the Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party (DFL), since the 1944 merger. I refer to them simply as Democrats for the sake of simplicity and consistency.

President – 10 Electoral Votes

By narrowly voting for its favorite son Walter Mondale in 1984, Minnesota has obtained the distinction of having the longest streak of voting Democratic, last voting Republican for Richard Nixon in 1972. This drastically overstates Minnesota’s Democratic leanings. George W. Bush targeted this state and narrowly lost twice, and Barack Obama’s 54% here barely outstripped his 53% nationwide. If a Democrat loses the Presidential race by four or more points, he would probably lose Minnesota. If Barack Obama does not improve his current standing, he will lose Minnesota.

Minnesota has caucuses, which are scheduled for March 6, a month after Super Tuesday. Presumably Governor Tim Pawlenty would dominate this event if still in the race. Otherwise, grassroots activists tend to dominate the proceedings. TOSSUP REPUBLICAN.

Governor – Tim Pawlenty (R)

Pawlenty elected not to run for another term, instead going all in on a run for the White House. He never commanded majority support in Minnesota, so it’s hard to see that turning out well, but that’s a discussion for another article. State Rep. Tom Emmer won the Republican nomination to replace him after a hotly contested Republican convention contest. He is running on reducing spending. His biggest problem at the moment is controversy over his personal finances.

Democrats nominated former Senator Mark Dayton, who narrowly won the primary after losing the convention endorsement. Dayton was a controversial figure during his Senate term, but is spending a ton of money to try to rehabilitate himself. He is running on an economic platform in the liberal Minnesota tradition and calling for a tax hike on high income earners. Still, his previous problems seem to be evident as his polling numbers have not gotten above the low 40's and his leads have shrunk.

As is typical in Minnesota, the race is complicated by the presence of Independence Party Candidate Tom Horner. Horner has increased his support and is currenty pulling 13-14 percent, if not a bit higher, and Minnesota third party candidates seem to hold their votes well. Dissatisfaction with Pawlenty and the state's Democratic base should get Dayton 40%, and that math makes it tough, but not impossible to win. It is a bad sign for Emmer that anti-Dayton votes seem to be going to Horner instead of him. Thus, Dayton has to be the favorite to pull out the win. LEAN DEMOCRAT.

Prediction: Dayton (D) 46%, Emmer (R) 40%, Horner (I) 14%

Senior Senator – Amy Klobuchar (D)

Klobuchar has high job approval ratings and seems to have attended the Chuck Schumer School of Publicity Attraction. Republicans riding high off 2010 will probably challenge her in 2012, but she has a definite edge. LEAN DEMOCRAT.

Junior Senator – Al Franken (D)

One of the more humorous occurrences of the 2008 election came from the recount in Franken’s narrow victory over Norm Coleman, when several ballots had to be examined by hand because, while voting for Franken, they had notes on them like, “but I don’t like him”, “only because he’s a Democrat”, or “because I have to”. Franken is a polarizing figure, shown by the fact he ran 12 points behind Barack Obama. He’ll obviously need to do better in 2014. He will certainly have strong, well funded opposition. Yet, Minnesota twice elected the extreme liberal Paul Wellstone, so Franken is certainly not toast. Franken could benefit by adopting a tone closer to something like Wellstone’s happy liberal warrior persona. TOSSUP REPUBLICAN.

House 1 – Tim Walz (D)

Walz took this marginal Southern Minnesota district in the Democratic landslide of 2006. Republicans nominated State Rep. Randy Demmer to try to take it back. Demmer has repeatedly tried to tie Walz to Washington and criticized his votes for health care and cap and trade. In return, Walz has hit Demmer for favoring "Social Security privatization" and criticized his stand against extended unemployment benefits.

As has often been the case this cycle, I am not convinced Republicans have nominated a candidate that can win. Demmer is probably too far to the right and his fundraising has not been totally up to snuff, though he does have outside help. A SurveyUSA poll released last week showed Walz up 47-42, ahead but not out of danger. This seems about right. Walz could lose, but he'd probably be about lost seat numer 70 for the Democrats. LIKELY DEMOCRAT.

House 2 – John Kline (R)

Republicans who survived 2006 and 2008 in Republican leaning seats are pretty safe this time. Democrat Shelley Madore is not a serious candidate. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 3 – Erik Paulsen (R)

In 2008, Democrats probably would have won this marginal seat had they not nominated a candidate from the far left. This cycle is a different story, and Democrat Jim Meffert is not up to the task. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 4 – Betty McCollum (D)

This seat will never be in play, which may or may not be news to Republican Teresa Collett. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

House 5 – Keith Ellison (D)

This one will REALLY never be in play, with all due respect to Republican Joel Demos. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

House 6 – Michele Bachmann (R)

This suburban seat is mostly Republican, but Bachmann has put it in play with some, uh, interesting views. She won in 2008 with a sizzling 46% against an incompetent candidate in 2008, even as John McCain took 53% here. Even in a year like this one she is vulnerable, and Democratic State Senator Tarryl Clark has taken advantage of Bachmann’s mouth to raise over $4 million. Of course, Bachmann’s big mouth allows her to raise over $11 million, making this the House race with the most total money raised in the nation.

Clark would have won this race in 2008, but this is 2010. Bachmann reminds me of Marilyn Musgrave in Colorado, who lost a very Republican district by staying on the far, far right for much too long. Bachmann will be in trouble going forward (think she'll be a redistricting target?), but I just cannot see this district electing a Democrat in a year like this. Bachmann leads in SurveyUSA polls by something like 49-40. If you like Bachmann, you’ll love this election year, because the 112th Congress looks likely to produce several Bachmann clones. LIKELY REPUBLICAN.

House 7 – Collin Peterson (D)

This Western Minnesota seat leans Republican, but Peterson is the Agriculture Chairman and a quite vocal dissenter from his party’s leadership. Republican Lee Byberg is running a credible race, but isn't getting much publicity.

I don't have any reason to believe Peterson is in trouble, but this race is worth keeping an eye on given how bad things look for the Democrats. This is especially true after Peterson, who voted against and criticized the health care bill, said it was important to move forward and that repealing it would be a waste of time. LIKELY DEMOCRAT.

House 8 – James Oberstar (D)

This Duluth/Iron Range seat is pretty marginal, but the Oberstar has never had a problem. He has gotten some bad publicity for apparently having a grand total of one donor for his district. In his role as Transportation Chairman, he has also become a symbol for spending and earmarks, which is not a positive in this year.

Republican Chip Cravaack is credible but underfunded. Still, he insists he can win. Obertsar could lose (one recent poll only had him leading by a small margin), but I would be very surprised if that happened. LIKELY DEMOCRAT.

House Predictions: 5 Democrats, 3 Republicans…NO CHANGE