State of the Day - Mississippi

Mississippi has produced an astouding number of great writers, but its primary legacies have been racism and poverty. Mississippi is still 50th in many measures, but it is a much closer 50th than it has ever been. The state has made great strides in race relations, as well. The economy has grown beyond cotton to feature manufacturing (with new Toyota and Nissan plants), shipbuilding, and gambling. Hurricane Katrina in 2005 caused great damage (especially to the casinos), but Mississippi responded much better than Louisiana. The recession has set back economic progress, at least for the moment. Voting here is extremely racially polarized, and although Mississippi's 37% black population is the highest in the nation, this state generally favors the Republicans. Still, conservative white Mississippi Democrats can and do win on the local and state level, and Democrats maintain control of the Legislature and U.S. House delegation.

The question for Mississippi in 2010 is whether those conservative Democratic House members can survive. Gene Taylor’s twenty-one years as a consistent thorn in the side of the Democratic leadership has made him invulnerable in the past, but he is facing the fight of his life. First District Rep. Travis Childers has served only since 2008, and he will have a very hard time holding on in this very Republican year. The year is so Republican that even Bennie Thompson in the 65% black Second District has a competitive race.

President – 6 Electoral Votes

Barack Obama said that he could make Mississippi a swing state, presumably due to his ability to maximize the African-American vote. This was never anything more than a pipe dream, even though he did maximize the African-American vote. Mississippi may be a tad more Democratic than Alabama, but that’s only an academic point.

Mississippi’s primary will not occur until March 13, which will probably be too late to matter. Mississippi would definitely prefer more conservative candidates like Sarah Palin, John Thune or Newt Gingrich over perceived moderates like Mitt Romney. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

Governor – Haley Barbour (R)

Barbour cannot run for reelection in 2011. Pearl River County Supervisor Hudson Holliday has already declared his candidacy for the nomination. Better potential Republican candidates include Lt. Phil Bryant, former Lt. Governor Amy Tuck, and former New Orleans Federal Reserve Bank President Dave Dennis. Hattiesburg Mayor Johnnie Dupree is seeking the Democratic nomination, but he may be opposed by 2007 loser John Eaves, Attorney General Jim Hood, Supreme Court Chief Justice William Waller, or Bill Luckett. Barbour remains popular and in the current political climate there is no way that Democrats will win this. LIKELY REPUBLICAN.

Senior Senator – Thad Cochran (R)

Cochran has reached Senator for Life status, which will be confirmed in 2014. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

Junior Senator – Roger Wicker (R)

Wicker was appointed in December 2007 when Trent Lott resigned. He won the special election by ten points in a terrible climate, with sky high African-American turnout, against a well known former Governor. It is hard to see any way he loses in 2012. LIKELY REPUBLICAN.

House 1 – Travis Childers (D)

When Haley Barbour appointed Roger Wicker to the Senate in 2007, he must have assumed that a Republican would easily hold this Northeast Mississippi district. It was a decent assumption. This is a safe Republican district that gave John McCain 62%. Yet, Childers successfully painted himself as a “Mississippi Democrat.” Meanwhile, Republicans nominated a terrible candidate just as the bottom was falling out of the economy. This confluence pushed Childers to a special election victory 49-46. Against the same poor candidate in November, Childers won 54-44.

Republicans have found themselves a new candidate in the form of State Senator Alan Nunnelee, a prodigious fundraiser who has matched Childers in that regard. Surprisingly for 2010, Nunnelee is running a substantive campaign that is staying away from the far right, for the most part. He is attacking Childers for spending votes, including a recent bill to provide aid to local governments. Childers uses this issue to call Nunnelee “anti-education.” Nunnelee is otherwise mostly avoiding Childers's voting record and trying to discuss his party affiliation.

Childers is using his $1.8 million war chest to call Nunnelee a tax raiser. If you did not see a party label, you’d think Childers was a Republican. He touts his social conservative and tax cutting bona fides, and makes no mention of his national party leadership. In fact, he professes to have not decided whether he will again back Pelosi for Speaker.

Childers is doing everything he can, and by so doing has given himself a shot. However, in a year like 2010, I have to give the edge to any sentient Republican in a district like this. A Democratic poll by Mark Penn showed Nunnelee up five with Childers at an anemi 39%. TOSSUP REPUBLICAN.

House 2 – Bennie Thompson (D)

The West Mississippi seat was designed as a Democratic stronghold and it has a 65% black population. Thompson actually has competition this year from Republican Bill Marcy. At least, that is the conventional wisdom.

The only thing at all suggesting that Marcy is competitive is a leaked internal poll from the Republican, showing him up 42-41. No, Marcy's endorsement by Sarah Palin is not competitive in this district. Yes, this is a Democratic year. But this district is still 65% black, and it is universally agreed upon that blacks have not abandoned the Democratic Party. Even in a year like 2010, Thompson is not going to lose to a Republican who has raised less than $50,000, even if he is African-American. LIKELY DEMOCRAT.

House 3 – Gregg Harper (R)

Of the three overwhelmingly Republican districts in Mississippi, this is the only one actually represented by a Republican. Democrat Joel Gill reports $0 raised but $70 cash on hand. I’d ponder that, but I have other things to do. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 4 – Gene Taylor (D)

On paper, this Hattiesburg/Gulf Coast district should never elect a Democrat. In some ways, they don’t. Taylor simply is never a dependable vote, and usually loudly dissents from his party’s leadership on any high publicity vote. Voting against the stimulus bill, Taylor said “if there was a vote for ‘hell no’, I’d push it.” Heck, the man is not even a dependable vote for Speaker. Taylor has more vigorous opposition that usual this year from Steve Palazzo.

Of course, this is also a different year than usual. Barack Obama won 32% of the vote here so you have to figure the President's approval rating in this district is somewhere in the 20's. That is one heck of an anvil to carry around. Nancy Pelosi is a bigger anvil for Taylor. Palazzo is hammering Taylor on his votes for Pelosi. His latest ad shows the House Chamber giving Taylor a standing ovation when casting his 2007 Speaker vote for Pelosi. Ironically, the reason that Taylor got a standing ovation is because he had previously refused on several occasions to vote for the Democratic Speaker candidate.

Palazzo is doing nothing but attacking Taylor, so much so that Taylor has joked he was looking forward to a debate to see if Palazzo could say anything besides "I approve this message." It's a good message here, but Palazzo has a bigger problem. A Tea Party rival who lost to Palazzo in the primary has endorsed Taylor.

This is one of those situations where the rock of a popular Democratic incumbent meets the hard place of a very unpopular national Democratic primary. Which one will give? I don't know, so this race is a tossup. I'd give the slightest edge to Taylor. The difference between Taylor and Childers in the First District is that Taylor has been walking this tightrope for 21 years. He ran 43 points ahead of Barack Obama in 2008, which I think will give him enough reservoir to survive. TOSSUP DEMOCRAT.

House Predictions: 2 Democrats, 2 Republicans…+1 REPUBLICAN.