State of the Day - Missouri

Missouri was the original forefront of the American West. It was an important state that was also on the forefront of the slavery issue that dominated American politics through the Civil War. The state is not as conspicuous today, but it still provides a decent approximation of America. There is competitive balance between the two metropolitcan areas of St. Louis and Kansas City and the mostly rural rest of the state. Until 2008, Missouri had the longest streak of voting for Presidential winners and state politics are very competitive. The metro areas vote Democratic and rural Missouri votes Republican. Missouri is now firmly to the right of average in Presidential races and while Republican control the legislature, Missouri Democrats have done very well in statewide races.

Missouri had a potential barnburner of an open Senate race between two famous names in Missouri politics, Republican Rep. Roy Blunt and Democratic Secretary of State Robin Carnahan. However, Blunt seems assured of winning in this very Republican year. Longtime Democratic Rep. Ike Skelton is in big trouble. Republicans also have longshot hopes of knocking off Democratic Reps. Russ Carnahan and Emanuel Cleaver.

President – 11 Electoral Votes

Missouri is clearly now a decently Republican state after sticking with John McCain, albeit by less than 4,000 votes, while states like Indiana and North Carolina went for the Democrat. Missouri could still vote Democratic, but the trend here is Republican. Obama would need to win a bigger victory than he did in 2008 to think about carrying Missouri, and I have a really hard time seeing such a scenario unless the Republicans nominate a disastrous candidate. For the first time in living memory I do not think Missouri will be a target state in 2012.

The Super Tuesday primary could be vitally important because the winner takes all the delegates, but the state offers no decided edge to anyone. Mike Huckabee has a good start in the Southern part of the state, but in 2008 he won almost no votes elsewhere and could manage only essentially a three way tie, as John McCain’s 33% edged out Huckabee’s 31% and Mitt Romney’s 29%. LIKELY REPUBLICAN.

Governor – Jay Nixon (D)

Governor Nixon benefited not only from the national Democratic wind in 2008, but from the unpopularity of the retiring incumbent, Republican Matt Blunt, as well as from ineffectual opposition. The most recent poll shows Nixon’s approval rating sliding to 43%, which would make him very vulnerable in 2012. Republicans have two potentially strong candidates in Lieutenant Governor Peter Kinder and House Speaker Ron Richard. Nixon clearly has work to do over the next two years. LEAN REPUBLICAN.

Senior Senator – Christopher “Kit” Bond (R)

Bond decided to retire after four terms, setting up a battle of famous families. Republicans nominated Rep. Roy Blunt, the former Majority and Minority Whip. Blunt is also the father of unpopular former Governor (2005-2009) Matt Blunt. Democrats nominated Secretary of State Robin Carnahan, daughter of former Governor (1993-2000) Mel and former Senator (2001-02) Jean Carnahan, and brother of Rep. Russ Carnahan. Both are obviously well heeled for the campaign. This race simply has not developed into anything competitive. Blunt has steadily widened his lead and is consistently polling above 50% with a 9-13 point lead. Missouri does not seem inclined to elect Democrats this year, even Robin Carnahan. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

Junior Senator – Claire McCaskill (D)

McCaskill fancies herself as a moderate and a maverick, but she has supported her party on big ticket items. Despite her efforts, she has become a rather polarizing figure. In a state where your party is the minority, this is bad. McCaskill is vulnerable in 2012, but Republicans will need a strong candidate. TOSSUP REPUBLICAN.

House 1 – William Lacy Clay (D)

Republican Robyn Hamlin will learn that majority African-American districts simply do not have competitive general elections. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

House 2 – Todd Akin (R)

Democrats could not touch Akin when they were riding high. Democrat Arthur Lieber will not touch him this year. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 3 – Russ Carnahan (D)

Republican Ed Martin is running a surprisingly strong race in this mostly Democratic district, raising nearly $1.3 million. He is trying to hit Carnahan over spending and jobs, while capitalizing on discontent among independents. Carnahan has essentially ignored him until recently. However, an independent group was funding a website and advertisements claiming Martin helped cover up instances of abuse by Catholic priests. This race did garner some attention after a crazy idiot threw a Molotov cocktail into Carnahan’s campaign office. This of course started rumors that some Tea Partier’s anger had boiled over, but in actuality the criminal was a disgruntled former Carnahan worker.

John Kerry got 57% here and even in 2010, this seat is probably about number 90 in terms of those most likely to flip to the GOP. Carnahan did have big leads in two August polls, including one from a Republican organization. LIKELY DEMOCRAT.

House 4 – Ike Skelton (D)

In almost all races this rural Western Missouri seat is overwhelmingly, safely Republican. However, it has loved its 34 year Representative, giving him 66% even as it gave John McCain 60%. Skelton serves Chairman of the Armed Services Committee but generally puts up a conservative record. He did vote for the stimulus and cap and trade bills, however.

Republican Vicky Hartzler is attacking these votes and his party label. She has raised about $1.1 million and should be competitive. She is a self identified evangelical Christian and is running hard against national Democrats. She has tried to tie Skelton to Nancy Pelosi. Her latest ad did go after Skelton personally, showing a video of him swearing during a speech at a college. The horror!

The question, of course, is how nationalized the election is here. Skelton can still win by himself, but national Democrats couldn't get 30%. Skelton has been playing this game for years but the rope is tighter now. This is obviously a competitive race on terrible Democratic tossup. I would have to rate this a tossup.

I will go with Skelton by a nose. While he is under 50% he has led in all polls and a local media poll released this week had him up 46-39. Skelton's long record will get him through. Barely. I think. TOSSUP DEMOCRAT.

House 5 – Emanuel Cleaver (D)

Cleaver, the former Kansas City Mayor, already has a road named himself in Kansas City. This seems presumptuous, but this is a normally safe seat.

Republican Jacob Turk is competitive and some Republicans are talking this seat up as a potential surprise. I don't see it. Turk picked up 36% here in his unsuccessful 2008 race against Cleaver. Even if you give him 10 points for the climate it still isn't that close. If Cleaver loses tomorrow night, the Democrats will have one of the worst nights in the history of elections. LIKELY DEMOCRAT.

House 6 – Sam Graves (R)

This district is mostly Republican, and Graves clobbered a very strong Democratic challenger in 2008. Clint Hylton is not a strong Democratic challenger in 2010. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 7 – Roy Blunt (R)

Blunt gave the seat, one of the safer Republican districts in the nation, up to run for the Senate. Democrat Scott Eckersley is not totally comatose, but has no chance of beating Republican nominee Billy Long. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 8 – Jo Ann Emerson (R)

Democrat Tommy Sowers has raised nearly $1.5 million, which is money the Democrats could better use somewhere that did not give John McCain 62% in 2008. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 9 – Blaine Luetkemeyer (R)

Luetkemeyer had to struggle to win this Republican seat when it came open in 2008, but has no competition this year. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House Predictions: 5 Democrats, 4 Republicans…NO CHANGE