State of the Day - Nevada

Nevada was an empty desert that became a state only because Republicans wanted three Electoral Votes in 1864, and it remained that way until the 1930's when legalized gambling made Las Vegas into what it is today. Las Vegas, and to a lesser extent Reno/Carson City, have built a service oriented economy that boomed until it busted hard in 2008. The state has the highest percentage of non-native residents of any state. The real estate market crashed harder here than perhaps anywhere, and the resulting recession has left Las Vegas reeling and the state with a catastrophic budget situation. The family friend era of marketing Las Vegas is long gone and the city now focuses on a tone of "what happens in Vegas stays in Vegas." In the rest of the state, mining and ranching remain prominent industries.

2010 was a big Republican year in Nevada. Republicans easily retained the Governor's Mansion and took the swing Third District House seat they lost in 2008. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid was narrowly reelected only because the Republicans nominated a historically bad candidate against him. Looking to 2012, Nevada should be a hotly contested state in the Presidential election, both in the general election and its early Republican caucus. The big question on the state level surrounds Senator John Ensign and his reelection in the face of admitted philandering and alleged illegal payoffs.

Nevada will probably add one seat in redistricting. The process is split between a Democratic legislature and new Republican Governor Brian Sandoval. The new seat will pretty much have to be around the Las Vegas area. The logical solution would be to create another suburban swing seat similar to the current Third District. However, I would expect Republicans to attempt to protect new Third District Rep. Joe Heck. Any attempts to do so would probably make the Fourth District lean Democratic. One solution may be to try to protect Heck and create a Hispanic Majority fourth district. The Second District should be out of Clark County entirely, making it more Republican. I'd expect one safe seat for each party, a Republican leaning but competitive Third District, and a Democratic leaning Fourth District well positioned to elect a Hispanic.

President – 5 Electoral Votes

Nevada has been a swing state in the past five Presidential elections, but it has trended toward the Democrats during that time. Bill Clinton, thanks in large part due to a pledge not to store nuclear waste in Nevada, won it narrowly twice as he was winning comfortably nationwide. George W. Bush did a bit better than his national showing here in 2000, but a bit worse in 2004. Barack Obama ran two points better here. Thus, while Nevada will probably vote for the winner, in a close election Democrats could win Nevada narrowly while losing the election. Still, this should be prime target territory in 2012. Barack Obama specifically has not helped himself by making multiple derogatory comments about Las Vegas. If the economy remains in the dumps, Republicans will win this state.

Nevada looks like it will again have an early caucus, probably on January 28. Mitt Romney did well in caucus states, including Nevada with its sizable Mormon population. However, the 2008 caucuses were overshadowed by the South Carolina primary the same day, and probably will be again in 2012. LEAN REPUBLICAN.

Governor – Jim Gibbons (R)

Gibbons spent four years mired in scandal and lost the primary to Brian Sandoval. He in turn stomped Harry Reid's son Rory, 53%-41%, in the general election. Sandoval has a very tough job ahead of him and every reason to expect strong opposition in 2014. TOSSUP REPUBLICAN.

Senior Senator – Harry Reid (D)

Reid won 50-45 even while exit polls (which skewed Democratic as normal again this year) said that 55% of Nevadans disapproved of Reid. That is an indictment of his hopeless opponent Sharron Angle. I cannot improve on Brit Hume's description of her as "conspicuously weak". Reid is a survivor so I am probably done betting against him in 2016. TOSSUP DEMOCRAT.

Junior Senator – John Ensign (R)

Ensign, a voluble social conservative, had an extramarital affair with the wife of his top staffer. And you thought your office politics were insufferable! His parents then gave the woman $96,000, which Ensign adamantly denied was a payoff. He said it was a gift. Are we supposed to believe this? In days gone by, public officials who acted like this would slink off, but apparently shame is a lost trait in today’s world. Ensign wants to run again in 2012. Republicans would be much better served with another nominee. Rep. Shelley Berkley is considering running and would be a strong candidate. The situation is too fuzzy to make out at the moment, but Ensign is obviously in serious trouble. Still in the current environment this would probably be a situation similar to David Vitter in Louisiana this year. TOSSUP REPUBLICAN.

House 1 – Shelley Berkley (D)

This district is safe and Berkley won another easy race. The district will lose some people but probably not enough to effect Berkley. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

House 2 – Dean Heller (R)

Heller won this Republican leaning "rest of the state" seat in 2006 and held it in 2008 against hellacious opposition. Like most similarly situated Representatives, he had a pass this time. His district should get even more Republican in redistricting. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 3 – Dina Titus (D)

Titus lost this suburban Las Vegas swing seat after one term 48%-47% to Joe Heck. In its current iteration, it will be a prime marginal district. It will need to lose about a third of its population in the next census. This should make it pretty easy for Republicans to create a distinctly Republican leaning seat. However, if the redistricters instead try to create another toss up or Republican leaning district, Heck will be severely endangered. TOSSUP DEMOCRAT.