New Hampshire is not representative of the nation at all, but it plays an outsized role in selecting the President. The state has always been fiercely independent. Low taxes became political orthodoxy here and sparked an economic boom even as the rest of New England stagnated. The fast growth has produced side effects like poorly planned communities and high real estate prices, but the state has still come a long way. Historically Republican New Hampshire has trended Democratic, thanks in large part to cultural issues. This was the only state that flipped from Bush to Kerry in 2004, and the state defeated its Republican Governor in 2004, two Republican House members in 2006, and a Republican Senator in 2008.
The Republicans bounced back in a big way in 2010. The GOP snatched both House seats back and Kelly Ayotte kept the Senate seat in Republican hands with a smashing victory. Democrat John Lynch won reelection, but with nearly twenty points less than he did two years earlier. Now Republicans must fight to hold onto their gains.
About 1700 people will need to shift from the First to the Second District in redistricting. The Republicans won huge majorities in the Legislature, so the process will be split. Expect only minor changes to the district lines that make no real difference.
President – 4 Electoral Votes
New Hampshire’s Democratic trend is overstated, as was proven on Tuesday. John Kerry won here narrowly in 2004 by finishing two points ahead of his national showing (50% here, 48% nationally). Barack Obama won easily in 2008, but his 54% only beat his national showing of 53% by one point. In other words, Barack Obama did not win New Hampshire because of his special appeal to the state or because New Hampshire has become more Democratic. He won it because it was a good enough Democratic year to where the states that were closest in 2004 all went easily Democratic in 2008. This also means he could easily lose it in 2012. New Hampshire will be one of the battleground states if the election is close. If Obama keeps stumbling, the state will flip.
Much will be written about the primary. I’ll just say for now that Mitt Romney absolutely cannot win the nomination without winning New Hampshire. TOSSUP REPUBLICAN.
Governor – John Lynch (D)
Lynch has been very popular for most of his tenure, but he beat Republican John Steven by only 53-45 in 2010. If he seeks a fifth two year term he may find his welcome has expired. TOSSUP DEMOCRAT.
Senior Senator – Judd Gregg (R)
Gregg is retiring, but Republicans easily kept his seat. Kelly Ayotte managed to win mainstream establishment support and an endorsement from Sarah Palin and won a smashing 60%-37% victory over Democratic Rep. Paul Hodes. Ayotte is well positioned for a long Senate career. LEAN REPUBLICAN.
Junior Senator – Jeanne Shaheen (D)
Shaheen lost 52%-47% in the Republican year of 2002 but won 52%-47% in the Democratic year of 2008. She'll be vulnerable to a bad political climate in 2014. TOSSUP DEMOCRAT.
House 1 - Carol Shea-Porter (D)
Shea-Porter was the liberal equivalent of a Tea Party candidate. Knowing this, her 54%-43% beatdown at the hands of Manchester Mayor Frank Guinta was not surprising. Guinta has a good base in the most populous city, but this seat should perennially be competitive. TOSSUP REPUBLICAN.
House 2 – Paul Hodes (D)
Hodes gave this seat up to lose a Senate race. He will be replaced by the man he beat in 2006, Charles Bass. The former and future Republican Representative won 48%-47% over Ann Kuster. This is a marginal district, but Bass was well known and in a great Republican climate his narrow margin is a serious worry. He is one of the most vulnerable Republican Representatives going forward. He's not likely to see any help in redistricting because any help would badly hurt Frank Guinta. TOSSUP DEMOCRAT.
Tuesday, November 9, 2010
State of the Day - New Hampshire
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By 2012, The National Popular Vote bill could guarantee the Presidency to the candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC).
Every vote, everywhere would be equal and counted for and directly assist the candidate for whom it was cast. Candidates would need to care about voters across the nation, not just undecided voters in a handful of swing states.
The bill would take effect only when enacted, in identical form, by states possessing a majority of the electoral votes–that is, enough electoral votes to elect a President (270 of 538). When the bill comes into effect, all the electoral votes from those states would be awarded to the presidential candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC).
The bill uses the power given to each state by the Founding Fathers in the Constitution to change how they award their electoral votes for president. Historically, virtually all of the major changes in the method of electing the President, including ending the requirement that only men who owned substantial property could vote and 48 current state-by-state winner-take-all laws, have come about by state legislative action.
The bill has been endorsed or voted for by 1,922 state legislators (in 50 states) who have sponsored and/or cast recorded votes in favor of the bill.
In Gallup polls since 1944, only about 20% of the public has supported the current system of awarding all of a state’s electoral votes to the presidential candidate who receives the most votes in each separate state (with about 70% opposed and about 10% undecided). Support for a national popular vote is strong in virtually every state, partisan, and demographic group surveyed in recent polls.
A survey of 800 New Hampshire voters conducted on December 16-17, 2008 showed 69% overall support for a national popular vote for President. Support was 80% among Democrats, 57% among Republicans, and 69% among independents. By age, support was 65% among 18-29 year olds, 66% among 30-45 year olds, 69% among 46-65 year olds, and 72% for those older than 65. By gender, support was 76% among women and 57% among men.
The National Popular Vote bill has passed 31 state legislative chambers, in 21 small, medium-small, medium, and large states, including one house in Arkansas (6), Connecticut (7), Delaware (3), The District of Columbia (3), Maine (4), Michigan (17), Nevada (5), New Mexico (5), New York (31), North Carolina (15), and Oregon (7), and both houses in California (55), Colorado (9), Hawaii (4), Illinois (21), New Jersey (15), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (12), Rhode Island (4), Vermont (3), and Washington (11). The bill has been enacted by the District of Columbia, Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, Maryland, Massachusetts, and Washington. These seven states possess 76 electoral votes — 28% of the 270 necessary to bring the law into effect.
See http://www.NationalPopularVote.com
Lynch will not have a say in redistricting since the GOP now holds veto-proof majorities in both houses in this cycle. Most of the action in this process will be on the state level however.
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