State of the Day - New Jersey

Editor's Note: This article was not published in alphabetical order due to error. We are publishing it today, and will resume our normal order tomorrow.

New Jersey is not so much a state as it is two giant suburbs for cities in other states. Originally an agricultural state, New Jersey became a high income center of finance, pharmaceuticals, and high tech in the Twentieth Century. The Garden State has become home to a center of sports stadiums, office parks, and casinos. In its own way, New Jersey is pretty decent microcosm of America (if a bit annoying when you need to get gas). Attracted originally by plentiful jobs and affordable housing, New Jersey has always attracted immigrants. Aside from that, the state has shed population this decade as the state's major industries have either shrunk or moved elsewhere. The state has not helped matters by imposing some of the nations highest taxes (especially property taxes) and most onerous insurance mandates, leading to high health care costs. As suburbs nationally have shifted to the Democrats in the last twenty years based on cultural issues, New Jersey has gone from a Republican leaning state to a mostly Democratic state. New Jersey is ridiculously expensive to campaign in, and the state's politics are run by often corrupt local political machines. In the last decade alone, scandals have ended the careers of Senator Bob Torricelli, Governor Jim McGreevey, and several state legislators. The state seemed to revolt against high taxes, bloated government, and corruption in 2009 by electing the crusading Republican former U.S. Attorney Chris Christie as Governor.

Since taking office, Christie has been a whirlwind force of change to the state’s political culture. It remains too early to tell what effects the new administration will have on New Jersey politics in the long run. New Jersey was not immune to the 2010 Republican wave, as the Third District dumped freshman Democratic Rep. John Adler.

Aside from Christie, the most important story here in the next year will be redistricting. The state is expected to lose one seat. The state has a convoluted process that usually results in a rather neutral process. On pure numbers, Donald Payne's Newark based seat has lost population and could easily be eliminated. However, this is a black majority district and is likely to remain. The same logic will apply to Albio Sires' 49% Hispanic Thirteenth District. The seat will most likely have to be eliminated from the northern part of the state. Most likely, some combination of Leonard Lance's Seventh District and Bill Pascrell's Eighth District will fortify the minority districts and create a Democratic leaning seat with the remaining territory. As a potential compromise, the new plan could make the districts of Frank LoBiondo and new Republican Jon Runyan safer for them.

President – 15 Electoral Votes

New Jersey has become a reliably Democratic state in Presidential elections. It is not in the top tier of Democratic states with New York and Massachusetts, however. New Jersey teased Republicans in 2000 and 2004, but ultimately was not all that close. It is possible that in the long run, positive effects from the new Chris Christie administration or a change in suburban voting patterns could move New Jersey to the right. For 2012, the state will remain Democratic in the absence of a massive Republican victory. In the current climate, New Jersey would be very winnable for the GOP (which is reflected in our rating below).

New Jersey has a Super Tuesday primary. The obscene expense of running campaigns here and its relative lack of Southern style Christian conservatives would give Mitt Romney an edge over people like Mike Huckabee and Sarah Palin. Actually, this could be a good state for Mitch Daniels, as he seems to be a kindred spirit for Chris Christie. TOSSUP REPUBLICAN.

Governor – Chris Christie (R)

Many candidates talk about change, but Chris Christie really has brought change. He went to war with the state legislature over new taxes and the budget and picked a fight with the teacher’s union and public employees. This sounds bad, but he won and in so doing made a huge dent in New Jersey’s woeful budget picture. Polls have Christie with a hair over 50% job approval (which is higher than President Obama’s, by the way.) I think there is a high probability that Christie will anger a majority of voters by 2013, if for no other reason than he truly seems to put other things ahead of maintaining popularity. This will be a fascinating administration to watch, but it will not be easy in this Democratic state. TOSSUP DEMOCRAT.

Senior Senator – Frank Lautenberg (D)

When Lautenberg won his first Senate term in 1982, he ripped his seventy-two year old as opponent as too old to do the job. By 2014, Lautenberg will be 90. He has also had health problems. Lautenberg always has low ratings and Republicans thought he was vulnerable in 2008, but the GOP was not going to win a Senate seat here that year. If Lautenberg runs expect the GOP to talk this race up again, but I do not see him losing. LEAN DEMOCRAT.

Junior Senator – Robert Menendez (D)

Menendez suffered from some ethical problems and probably would have been in a dogfight had he not run in the historically great Democratic year of 2006. If he were up this year, I think he would have lost to anybody credible. He is up in 2012, however, so he should be favored unless the Democrats are staring at another disaster. Apparently Lou Dobbs is considering this race. If he runs, either as a Republican or an Independent, Menendez is assured of reelection. If someone more credible runs, Menendez is in serious trouble. TOSSUP REPUBLICAN.

House 1 – Robert Andrews (D)

Only in New Jersey could someone run in a primary for Senate, lose, and then come back and claim his party’s nomination for the House. By using his wife as a seat warmer, Andrews did exactly that. He cruised for a second straight cycle against Dale Glading, even though he ran nine points worse since 2008. This should still be a Democratic seat based in Camden but Andrews will probably have to pick up some slightly less friendly territory. LIKELY DEMOCRAT.

House 2 – Frank LoBiondo (R)

LoBiondo is a tough target, having easily survived two horrible Republican years in this swing district. He had only token opposition this year. The only way to hurt LoBiondo in redistricting would be to carve up Andrews's seat. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 3 – John Adler (D)

Adler won this marginal open seat in 2008, and lost it in 2010 to Jon Runyan, a former Tennessee Titan and Philadelphia Eagle. Runyan supplants NFL washout Heath Shuler as the best football player in Congress. This seat will almost certainly pick up a bit of more Republican territory which can only help Adler. LEAN DEMOCRAT.

House 4 – Chris Smith (R)

Smith has made this Republican leaning seat safe for himself. His seat will pretty much have to remain in something like its current form. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 5 – Scott Garrett (R)

Redistricting won't make this mostly Republican seat any easier for Democrats. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 6 – Frank Pallone (D)

Pallone might have been in trouble in this district that touches much of the Jersey Shore, had Republicans not nominated underfunded Tea Partier Anna Little instead of a more attractive candidate in the primary. Pallone will probably have to pick up a few Republican voters. It would be enough to put Pallone in serious trouble in a similar environment with a better Republican candidate. TOSSUP REPUBLICAN.

House 7 – Leonard Lance (R)

I find it amazing Lance managed to win this tossup seat in 2008 when it came open. Democrats did not really contest it this time. Lance's problem going forward is that his district stands a pretty big chance of being carved up. The Western part of the seat could go to Garrett and Frelinghuysen while the Eastern part could preserve the seats of Payne and Sires. Lance could end up either running against Garrett or Frelinghuysen in a primary or running in a Democratic district against Bill Pascrell. If Lance keeps his seat reasonably intact it should be much more Republican. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 8 – Bill Pascrell (D)

Pascrell may also lose his safe seat in redistricting. He'd probably be okay running against Leonard Lance in a Democratic leaning seat. However, to do that he would theoretically have to give up his best Democratic territory to Payne. While Pascrell should end up somewhere where he has a good chance of winning, he can be certain of nothing. LIKELY DEMOCRAT.

House 9 – Steven Rothman (D)

Rothman will probably still have to keep a Hackensack based seat, but it will have to pick up some Republican territory. LEAN DEMOCRAT.

House 10 – Donald Payne (D)

This Newark based seat has lost population, but some kind of black majority district will be preserved. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

House 11 – Rodney Frelinghuysen (R)

Frelinghuysen should be able to keep a mostly Republican district. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 12 – Rush Holt (D)

Holt has turned this Democratic leaning Central Jersey seat into a stronghold after winning two very narrow elections in a previous incarnation of this district. However, he will probably need to pick up 60,000 Republican voters for the next election. This has an excellent chance of being a Republican pickup opportunity. TOSSUP REPUBLICAN.

House 13 – Albio Sires (D)

This is one of the most Democratic districts in the country. Redistricters will make sure that a Hispanic majority district remains safe for Sires. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

House Predictions: 8 Democrats, 5 Republicans…NO CHANGE