State of the Day - New Mexico

New Mexico is a state with a unique makeup and some seeming contradictions. It has some of the nation's oldest settlements but an economy featuring some its most cutting edge technologies. There is a little Deep South and many Native Americans and Hispanics, but few recent immigrants. The state has some social problems and high rates of poverty, dropouts, drug use, teen pregnancy, and DWI's. Politically, the state has maintained a partisan balance and is close to the middle of the American political spectrum, even though it is far from average demographically. Democrats seemed to surge in the last decade with the national prominence of Governor Bill Richardson, but his standing fell in New Mexico and Republicans experienced a kind of comeback in 2010.

Republicans won back the Governor's Mansion and one of the House seats they lost in 2008. Redistricting should be split among the Democratic Legislature and new Republican Governor Susana Martinez. Expect only minor changes in the boundaries. The First District will need to shed about 20,000 people, the vast majority of that will have to go to the Second District. Expect these shifted voters to mostly be Republican, making that seat more secure for Republicans while simultaneously helping Democratic Rep. Martin Heinrich in the First District. These should lead to a quiet election in 2012, as Jeff Bingaman looks safe for reelection. The state should be hotly contested in the Presidential race.

President – 5 Electoral Votes

New Mexico swung toward the Democrats in 2008 by even more than you would expect given the national climate, as Barack Obama did three points better than John Kerry compared to the national average. Better Democratic turnout operations helped a bit, but the bigger issue was that while George W. Bush won 44% of Hispanics in 2004, John McCain could take only 30% of that vote. This is a big problem given that Hispanics make up 44% of the population.

New Mexico remains a swing state in Presidential elections, though it might have moved somewhat to the left of the midpoint. Then again, it might swing back again in 2012 so it is hard to tell. The state remains close enough to where it will vote Republican if the GOP wins a decisive victory. This looks even more true in the wake of the 2010 Republican comeback in New Mexico. For that reason, it remains a tossup in the current climate.

As of now, the New Mexico primary will still occur on June 5, which will almost certainly render it irrelevant. TOSSUP REPUBLICAN.

Governor – Bill Richardson (D)

Richardson's approval ratings have sunk the last two years in the wake of scandal, and his Lieutenant Governor was defeated 54-46 by Republican Susana Martinez. As the first Hispanic female Governor in the nation, Martinez is a potential Republican star. TOSSUP REPUBLICAN.

Senior Senator – Jeff Bingaman (D)

Bingaman has won in big Republican years (1994) and big Democratic years (2006). He will win in 2012, too. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

Junior Senator – Tom Udall (D)

2008 was a big Democratic year and his opponent was not the best, but getting 61% and running ahead of Barack Obama for an open Senate seat in 2008 was fairly impressive. Barring a disaster of epic proportions, it would take a seriously amazing GOP year to threaten Udall, especially since the Republican bench is currently empty. LEAN DEMOCRAT.

House 1 – Martin Heinrich (D)

This Albuquerque seat is supposed to be a swing district. Yet it has trended Democratic enough to where it has a definite lean to the left. This enabled freshman Democrat Martin Heinrich to hold the seat 52-48 in a big Republican year. He needs to lose about 20,000 voters in redistricting. This puts him at some risk but he should be able to shed Republican territory to the Second District. I still expect this race to be hotly contested. LIKELY DEMOCRAT.

House 2 – Harry Teague (D)

Teague picked up this Republican leaning Southern New Mexico seat when it came open in 2008. It was pretty obvious he would have trouble holding it in a Republican wave, and he lost 55-45 to his predecessor, Steve Pearce. The once and future Representative may get a challenge in 2012, but his stature, the districts Republican lean, and the fact that it will probably pick up about 18,000 mostly Republican voters all favor Pearce. LEAN REPUBLICAN.

House 3 – Ben Ray Lujan (D)

Lujan got competition in this Santa Fe/Northern New Mexico seat. However, the seat is mostly Democratic and even a Republican wave couldn't come close to ousting him. He is likely safe going forward. Redistricting should have very little effect here. LIKELY DEMOCRAT.