State of the Day - New York

New York City has grown over 400 years from an industrious Dutch colony to one of the leading cities of the world. It has a great history of tolerance and openness to new ideas that has helped make it a leader first in manufacturing and later in finance and culture. Historically, New York state politics has been a battle between the city and lower profile Upstate New York. For the most part, both parties in New York have favored activist government. Republicans carried Upstate and Democrats dominated the city, leaving suburbanites and Jews to cast the swing votes in this always close state. Together, leaders of both parties built a leader in the big unit economy. In the last thirty years, trends have moved away from these big units and New York has struggled. The state has suffered from social problems, dysfunctional government, red ink, and social unrest while barely growing and falling behind California, Texas, and Florida in population. The 1990's saw an uptick under the leadership of two Republicans, Governor George Pataki and New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani.

September 11, 2001 was a "game changer". New York City struggled to recover economically only to be knocked on its rear by the 2008 financial crisis. This has exacerbated the long trend of New Yorkers moving elsewhere, and in fact, most new transplants to New York today are foreign immigrants. It's not clear what kind of economy they will face going forward, especially as the state and New York City suffer severe budgetary problems. Even the suburbs with their very high taxes have struggled. Upstate New York is a perennial economic disaster. The political result of all this upheaval has been to make the state heavily Democratic. The suburbs now vote comfortably Democratic and Upstate New York isn't all that Republican anymore. Not even Democratic scandals and general dysfunction in Albany has been able to threaten Democratic dominance.

That said, New York Republicans were able to have a modicum of success in 2010, going from the brink of extinction in the House delegation to picking up six, and perhaps seven House seats. It appears the Republicans also recaptured the State Senate. However, Republican statewide candidates fared horribly and it does not appear as if they will be able to win statewide office anytime soon.

New York is expected to lose a seat during redistricting. While Democrat Andrew Cuomo will be Governor and the Democrats will control the State House, the State Senate is not settled. The Republicans appear to have regained control by a 32-30 margin but three seats are still in recounts with the attendant questionable shenanigans. With six or seven new Republicans, there will certainly be no shortage of targets should Democrats control the process. Under any circumstances, the seat will have to come out of Upstate and specifically Western New York. The easiest solution would involve eliminating outgoing House Rules Chairman's Louise Slaughter's 28th District, which has lost an astounding 8% of its population in the last decade and looks like a weird barbell connecting Buffalo and Rochester. Her overwhelmingly Democratic territory could then be used to endanger Republicans in the 25th, 26th, and 29th Districts. Still, if the 83 year old (in 2012) Slaughter wants to keep going, Democrats will probably feel obliged to keep her in a safe seat. She could take on some Republican territory and effectively squeeze out one of the aforementioned Republicans.

President – 31 Electoral Votes

The best news for Republicans here is that New York will lose another Electoral Vote for the umpteenth Census in a row (actually fifth). Warmer climates and functional government seem to attract people. Still, with the track the President is on, who knows? Anyway, New York’s Super Tuesday primary has byzantine ballot access procedures, which means that the establishment candidate is likely to have no competition. Hear that, Mitt? LEAN DEMOCRAT.

Governor – David Paterson (D)

In the past four years, Democrats have provided New York with two Governors. The first resigned after frequenting prostitutes. The second couldn't govern his way out of a paper bag. Come to think of it, the first one couldn't either. Republicans managed to find a nominee for Governor, Carl Paladino, who was worse than either of them. The new Democratic Governor, Andrew Cuomo, has a very low bar to clear here. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

Senior Senator – Charles Schumer (D)

On the off chance Republicans ever compete in a statewide race here again, it probably won't be this one. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

Junior Senator – Kirsten Gillibrand (D)

Gillibrand was supposed to be vulnerable but had no primary challenger and defeated Republican Joe DioGuardi 62-26. Let's here it for appointments! I have no reason to believe Republicans have any chance of competing here in 2012. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

House 1 – Tim Bishop (D)

This Long Island seat saw a twist on Election Night. In a reversal of roles, Bishop was ahead by 3,500 votes on Election Night but the late ballots actually went Republican. As of now, Republican Randy Altschuler leads by 383 votes. Bishop has demanded a recount and the two candidates have already begun what promises to be a lengthy court battle.

In any event, this district needs to add about 12,000 residents in redistricting, and about the only place to get them is from Democratic leaning Western Suffolk County. That should help the Democrats here in what is now a perfectly even district. In fact, Bishop probably would have won by about 1,000 votes under the potential 2012 boundaries. TOSSUP DEMOCRAT.

House 2 – Steve Israel (D)

Israel's 56-43 was impressive under the circumstances. The Long Island seat leans Democratic now, but will inevitably have to pick up a few Republicans in redistricting. That could make Israel a more inviting target. LEAN DEMOCRAT.

House 3 – Peter King (R)

King's Republican leaning Long Island seat has lost population, and will need to pick up about 50,000 new people (even before adjusting for population he will lose to the Second District). This will force him to pick up some Democratic territory. King has run double digits ahead of his party in good years and bad, so he should be safe, but this seat could be very competitive if it came open. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 4 – Carolyn McCarthy (D)

This Hempstead based seat leans Democratic, but will have to expand into New York City for the first time. McCarthy sagged to 54% but her seat should become much more Democratic. LEAN DEMOCRAT.

House 5 – Gary Ackerman (D)

Ackerman will have to expand further into Queens, which won't change the partisan makeup of this district at all. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

House 6 – Gregory Meeks (D)

Nothing could happen to threaten Meeks, even if he picks up a slice of Brooklyn. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

House 7 - Joseph Crowley (D)

Crowley will need to pick up about 10,000 people but that shouldn't be a problem in the Bronx and Queens. He only won 80% this year so it's not like this is marginal territory anyway. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

House 8 – Jerrold Nadler (D)

This West Side Manhattan/Brooklyn district is the fastest growing seat in the state and will actually need to shed about 22,000 voters, which will help fortify the other heavily Democratic New York City districts. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

House 9 – Anthony Weiner (D)

Weiner has been trying to get elected Mayor for years, but Michael Bloomberg changed the term limit laws. His Queens/Brooklyn seat is a veritable Idaho compared to the the surrounding districts, but it still leans Democratic. He can pick up the 21,000 people he needs from pretty much anyone (probably Nadler) and be even safer. LIKELY DEMOCRAT.

House 10 – Edolphus Towns (D)

Towns got 91% and needs only minor changes, so Democrats are good here in Brooklyn. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

House 11 – Yvette Clark (D)

Clark needs about 40,000 new residents, but is surrounded by Democrats in Brooklyn. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

House 12 – Nydia Velazquez (D)

Velazquez will probably get more of Manhattan and less of Brooklyn and Queens, but it won't matter at all. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

House 13 – Michael McMahon (D)

Republicans had a total melt down and blew this Staten Island based GOP leaning seat in 2008. McMahon seemed like he could hold on, but Republican Mike Grimm came through with a 51%-48% victory. The district will actually need to shed about 11,000 people, so it can lose part of its Brooklyn appendage and become marginally more Republican. TOSSUP REPUBLICAN.

House 14 – Carolyn Maloney (D)

Maloney's Manhattan/Queens district has lost population and will need about 43,000 new people. She will almost certainly keep some kind of safe Democratic district, however. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

House 15 – Charles Rangel (D)

Rangel’s ethical situation sent him careening to 80%, which is actually pretty terrible in a district that gave Barack Obama 93%. This district will probably have to expand into the Bronx, but it's pretty obvious that Rangel won't be going anywhere. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

House 16 – Jose Serrano (D)

This district's election results look like something from Syria. Serrano should get some new territory in the Bronx but this will still be one of the safest Democratic seats in the nation. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

House 17 – Eliot Engel (D)

Engel has a problem in that he is from the Bronx but this district will probably need to move out of New York City entirely and take on all of Rockland County. As long as he can find someplace like Mt. Vernon to his liking, Engel will be fine. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

House 18 – Nita Lowey (D)

Lowey's district will need about 10,000 more residents of Westchester, but it shouldn't affect her. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

House 19 – John Hall (D)

Hall picked up this swing suburban seat in the 2006 wave, but lost it 53-47 to Nan Hayworth. She may be helped slightly as the district will probably need to give a bit of its more Democratic territory closer to the city to Nita Lowey. TOSSUP REPUBLICAN.

House 20 – Scott Murphy (D)

Murphy won this marginal, rural Eastern Upstate seat by 726 votes in April, 2009, after Kirsten Gillibrand moved up to the Senate. He promptly lost it 55-45 to Christopher Gibson. For an upstate seat, it is actually in decent shape population wise, needing only about 12,000 new people. It will have to pick up more Democratic leaning territory to the west, however, so Gibson could be slightly disadvantaged in a tight race. LIKELY DEMOCRAT.

House 21 – Paul Tonko (D)

Tonko won 59-41, a good result for a bad year in this Democratic leaning seat. His district will have to expand by 25,000 people and this could make the seat more marginally Republican. However, redistricters are certain to keep a Democratic leaning seat based in Albany. LEAN DEMOCRAT.

House 22 – Maurice Hinchey (D)

This Democratic leaning Binghamton/Southeast New York seat would be easy to eliminate because its territory could be used to destabilize Republicans in the 19th, 20th, and 24th districts. However, Hinchey is a favorite of State House Speaker Sheldon Silver, so expect redistricters to simply add 25,000 voters from surrounding territory. That will make the district more Republican however. Hinchey won by a mere 52-48 margin this time, so he could face strong competition. TOSSUP DEMOCRAT.

House 23 – Bill Owens (D)

This very marginal (not, as was reported, heavily Republican, as Obama won 52% here) far upstate seat got national attention in November, 2009 when it had a special election to replace Republican John McHugh, who left to become Army Secretary. Republicans nominated the quite liberal Dede Scozzafaza because New York Republicans always know what they are doing. National conservatives rallied around Conservative Party nominee Doug Hoffman. Scozzafava dropped out in a huff and endorsed Democrat Owens, keeping just enough of the vote to allow Owens to win 49-47, with 4 for Scozzafava. Obviously, Owens was in serious trouble as he lost to the two combined Republicans. However, in November Republicans chose Matt Doheny in a primary over Hoffman, who had the Conservative line. Hoffman dropped out but still got 5%, and Owens won 48-46, making him perhaps the luckiest member of Congress. His district will need 35,000 new people. Owens would like to pick up part of Syracuse, but that would probably put the 25th District out of reach for Democrats. So, Owens will probably pick up more marginal rural territory. TOSSUP REPUBLICAN.

House 24 – Michael Arcuri (D)

Arcuri won in 2006 due to a great climate and an opponent who shot himself in the foot. However, he struggled in 2008 which made his 53-47 loss to Richard Hanna in 2010 totally predictable. This vast Central New York seat probably will not be eliminated because that would not help other Democrats. Still, it will have to pick up 40,000 voters. It could become more Democratic with the addition of parts of Syracuse, or made more Republican at the expense of other Republicans. It is hard to tell. TOSSUP REPUBLICAN.

House 25 – Dan Maffei (D)

As of now, Maffei is down 600 votes to Republican Ann Marie Buerkle. This may be a pyhrric victory for Republicans. If Louise Slaughter retires, heavily Democratic parts of Rochester will likely be added with would finish Buerkle. If Slaughter stays, the district could be carved up with Republican parts contributing to a heavily Republican district and Syracuse being used to give distinct Democratic leans to the currently marginal 23rd and 24th districts. TOSSUP DEMOCRAT.

House 26 – Chris Lee (R)

As Upstate districts go, this one is in fine shape needing only about 23,000 new residents. Lee won 72% this year and his district is too Republican to entice Democrats to eliminate it. Doing so would endanger Brian Higgins and firm up Republicans in the 25th and 29th Districts. Lee should be fine. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 27 – Brian Higgins (D)

Higgins needs about 60,000 new voters in this far Southwest New York seat, and finds himself in a bit of a pickle. If Louise Slaughter retires, he can trade some Republican areas for Buffalo and Niagara Falls and be fine. If Slaughter stays, she will either need to take some Republican territory (she can afford it) or Higgins will have a problem. LIKELY DEMOCRAT.

House 28 – Louise Slaughter (D)

This seat is sort of a barbell that connects heavily Democratic Buffalo and Rochester. It also is about 85,000 people short of the equal population standard. If Slaughter retires, her district would probably be eliminated and used to shore up Brian Higgins while endangering Chris Lee, Ann Marie Buerkle (or strengthen Dan Maffei, and Thomas Reed). There will be a safe Democratic seat in there somewhere, but we don't know what it will look like. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

House 29 – Thomas Reed (R)

This seat was held by freshman Democrat Eric Massa, who resigned in March in the wake of a series of bizarre behavior. Citing inability to hold the seat, uh, I’m sorry, a state budget crunch, David Paterson did not bother to call a special election. Republicans easily took the seat behind Thomas Reed 56-44. This Southern Tier seat leans Republican, but needs about 40,000 new people. If Louise Slaughter decides to try to hold on, it wouldn't be that hard to try to combine this district with another Republican held district in the 24th, 25th and 29th district. However, Democrats would not want to do this because it would strengthen the remaining Republicans, so Reed has a pretty good chance of being okay. LEAN REPUBLICAN.