State of the Day - North Carolina

North Carolina has grown from an impoverished backwater with a textile based economy to a fast growing state with cutting edge education and strong economic performance. While the old traditions live on, the Research Triangle has led the development of a new North Carolina that is one of the world centers of the high tech, pharmaceutical, and finacial services industry. This has created some cultural tension with conservative, rural North Carolina. The result has been polarized politics with often progressive policies but with a culturally conservative tone. After all, this is still the state that elected Jesse Helms. Democrats have generally controlled state races with Republicans winning national races, though Barack Obama did win here. North Carolina House Democrats did alright in surviving 2010, but Republicans captured the Legislature for the first time and in so doing put at least a temporary stop to what had looked like a Democratic trend.

Democrats face severe challenges here in 2012. Barack Obama will be hard pressed to repeat his narrow victory here. Governor Bev Perdue is wildly unpopular and seemingly will need a miracle to win a second term.

The state's Democratic majority in the U.S. House delegation will also face extreme peril from redistricting. Democrats have always controlled this in North Carolina, and ten years ago packed five heavily Republican districts in such a way as to leave three heavily Democratic seats and five swing or Democratic leaning seats which were all Democratic after 2008. The Democrats lost one of these seats in 2010, but that had more to do with the incumbent than anything. The Governor does not have a veto on redistricting bills, so Republicans can take a free shot at reversing this plan. Republicans will leave in place the two black majority districts (1st and 12th), and pretty much have to leave a heavily Democratic 4th District for David Price. They will probably need to leave one safe Democratic district for one of Brad Miller, Mike McIntyre, or Larry Kissell (probably Miller), but they can target the other two along with Heath Shuler, who is harder to target based on his location in the Western corner of the state. Expect at least a two seat gain in redistricting for the Republicans.

President – 15 Electoral Votes

Barack Obama was the first Democrat to win North Carolina since Jimmy Carter in 1976. It’s easy to say that will not happen again, and at the current rate it will not. However, in the long run North Carolina could very well become a swing state. The Democrat base here is mostly African-Americans and highly educated whites - they are more likely to stay Democratic than blue collar whites. So, while it will take a serious comeback for Obama to win North Carolina in 2012, this is a state that bears watching. North Carolina’s early May primary will come too late to matter. If it does, it should favor the candidate more identified with cultural conservatism, as much of the primary electorate comes from rural, culturally conservative North Carolina. LIKELY REPUBLICAN.

Governor – Bev Perdue (D)

Perdue’s approval ratings have been consistently below 30%. Add into that a scandal and criminal investigations into her 2008 fundraising efforts. Incumbents simply do not come back from that. Expect several credible Republicans to run in 2012, including former Charlotte Mayor and 2008 loser, Pat McCrory, High Point University President Nido Qubein, former Raliegh Mayor Paul Coble, and State Senator Phil Berger. Democrats’ best shot would be for Perdue to retire. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

Senior Senator – Richard Burr (R)

Burr won 55-43 over Elaine Marshall, which is not particularly impressive in a year like 2010. Expect him to have serious competition in 2016. LEAN REPUBLICAN.

Junior Senator – Kay Hagan (D)

Hagan ran a good campaign, but it was a Democratic year and Republican Senator Elizabeth Dole was simply a disaster. Hagan will almost certainly get tough competition, though she’ll be tough herself. She would have a hard time surviving a climate like 2010. TOSSUP REPUBLICAN.

House 1 – G.K. Butterfield (D)

This is one of the few black majority districts Republicans could win, but it would take a "Bloomberg" situation. Butterfield got 59% in 2010. The biggest issue for Butterfield is that this district lost population and needs almost 90,000 new people. As of now, it is a complex web of Northeast North Carolina designed to create a black majority district. Expect a similarly convoluted effort to draw a black majority district. The Voting Rights Act requires it, and Republicans redistricters would like to pack this seat full of Democrats. Expect it to take some black and Democratic voters from the Second District. LIKELY DEMOCRAT.

House 2 – Bob Etheridge (D)

This grotesque looking slice of Central North Carolina is prime swing territory in national elections. Nevertheless, Etheridge held it easily until this year and probably would have held it in 2010 year had he not assaulted a cameraman and ended up on YouTube. He ended up losing 50-48 to "Mama Grizzly" Renee Elmers. Expect Ellmers to trade some heavily Democratic areas to G.K. Butterfield in exchange for some Republican territory from Howard Coble. Still, the effect won't be too much or else other marginal Democrats would be stregthened. This should remain competitive because the Democratic vote is growing faster than the Republican vote. TOSSUP REPUBLICAN.

House 3 – Walter Jones (R)

This is a heavily Republican district in the Eastern part of the state designed with convoluted boundaries designed to put as many black voters as possible in G.K. Butterfield's district. It could survive with only minor changes, but expect some sort of effort to get him to take some of Mike McIntyre's Democratic voters. Jones can afford to have them. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 4 – David Price (D)

This is a mostly Democratic district which encompasses the Research Triangle. It is also the fastest growing district in the state. It will shed some 60,000 people, but Republicans will leave something for Price. LIKELY DEMOCRAT.

House 5 – Virginia Foxx (R)

Foxx is not an impressive performer but it won't matter in rural Northwest North Carolina. This district needs to pick up 25,000 people. She could pick up some territory as part of attempts to draw out Brad Miller or Heath Shuler, and will have a more Democratic, but still safe Republican seat. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 6 – Howard Coble (R)

Coble can afford to trade quite a bit of his heavily Republican Central North Carolina seat for some more marginal territory currently representated by Larry Kissell. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 7 – Mike McIntyre (D)

This district leans Republican. Expect McIntyre to trade Walter Jones for some more Republican territory. McIntyre is a survivor but 2012 should be his toughest election yet. Barring a total redo of the map, however, he will not be easy to draw out. TOSSUP DEMOCRAT.

House 8 – Larry Kissell (D)

This is a swing district that the freshman Kissell managed to hold 53-44 in 2010. He will probably receive a gift of heavily Republican suburban Charlotte from Sue Myrick, which will seriously endanger him in 2012. Still, his impressive 2010 performance means he can't be written off yet. TOSSUP DEMOCRAT.

House 9 – Sue Myrick (R)

Myrick's heavily Republican suburban Charlotte seat will need to shed about 90,000 people. A good portion of that will probably be used to make Larry Kissell's life miserable. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 10 – Patrick McHenry (R)

McHenry will probably have to pick up about 30,000 people in his Western North Carolina seat. It won't endanger him, but it does limit the ability to go after Heath Shuler. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 11 – Heath Shuler (D)

This Western North Carolina seat leans Republican, but Shuler is a local football hero who has put up one of the more conservative voting records among Democrats, voting against TARP, the stimulus, and the health care bill. He was rewarded with a solid 54-46 victory. He will need to pick up about 20,000 new people. While these should be heavily Republican, Shuler should be able to survive. Republicans will be hard pressed to go after him because his district is in the Western corner of the state, bordering only Patrick McHenry's district, and McHenry also needs to pick up voters. TOSSUP DEMOCRAT.

House 12 – Melvin Watt (D)

Republicans will make sure there will be a black majority district for Watt. It could not be any more bizarrely shaped than what he has now. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

House 13 – Brad Miller (D)

This Democratic leaning seat was gerrymandered for Miller as a new seat 10 years ago. Any efforts to draw him out of his Raleigh to Greensboro slice of the northern part of the state will be hampered by the fact that this is one of the fastest growing parts of the state. Still, he has some heavily black territory that could be shifted to G.K. Butterfield, who needs voters. LEAN DEMOCRAT.