State of the Day - North Dakota

North Dakota is still pretty much the empty nirvana of wheat growing it was when Lewis and Clark passed through over two centuries ago. It has been the slowest growing state over the past century. As would be expected in an agricultural state, the politics here has shown a populist, and at times radical streak, during times of low commodity prices. In 1915 the Non-Partisan League began catering to small farmers and forty years later merged with the Democrats, who have kept the tradition of populist economic positions alive. Republicans generally have the upper hand here, but like most small states, politics is primarily personal. Democrats have done well and the Congressional delegation was all Democratic until the 2010 elections. Still, the economy is changing away from agriculture and toward tourism. More North Dakotans now live in cities. The state has surprisingly become somewhat of a high tech center. The recession has perversely helped staunch North Dakota's population loss, as the state's low unemployment rate makes it attractive. The state has also become a player in the energy industry, producing oil, coal, natural gas, and lignite. All this progress means that North Dakota, long the oldest state in the union, is getting younger and its politics may be becoming more dynamic.

Republicans finally broke through in 2010. The elections became nationalized and overwhelmed the personal appeal of long time Democratic Rep. Earl Pomeroy. Democratic Senator Byron Dorgan retired rather than face a likely loss at the hands of popular Republican Governor John Hoeven. The other Democrat, Senator Kent Conrad faces election in 2012 and must be worrying about the unpopularity of his party in this state that should easily vote Republican for President in 2012. Democrats will likely be too occupied facing him to put up much of a challenge to new Republican Governor Jack Dalrymple.

President – 3 Electoral Votes

Barack Obama actually targeted North Dakota after polls showed him doing surprisingly well here. He still lost 53-45, which indicates that North Dakota is unwinnable for Democrats.

The state had a Super Tuesday caucus four years ago, though no plans have been made for 2012. One would have to assume the state would come down to a contest between Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty and South Dakota Senator John Thune. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

Governor – John Hoeven (R)

Hoeven will resign on December 7 to take his seat in the Senate. He will be replaced by Lieutenant Governor Jack Dalrymple. Hoeven was wildly popular, so if Dalrymple can avoid falling on his face he should be okay. He would start with a huge advantage over potential Democratic opponents like former Attorney General and 2000 nominee Heide Heitkamp, former Agriculture Commissioner Roger Johnson, Rep. Earl Pomeroy, State School Superintendent Wayne Sanstead SAFE REPUBLICAN.

Senior Senator – Kent Conrad (D)

Conrad is in excellent personal position, but he could always be vulnerable to a Republican tidal wave (though he did easily survive 1994). Republicans used their silver bullet, John Hoeven, on the other Senate seat this year, leaving them no obvious candidates. If 2012 turns out like 2010, it won't matter. LEAN DEMOCRAT.

Junior Senator – Byron Dorgan (D)

Governor John Hoeven's entry into the race essentially sealed the result, even had Dorgan not retired. He won 76%-22% and should have a long career in the Senate. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House At-Large – Earl Pomeroy (D)

Pomeroy had consistently shown personal appeal that allowed him to run well ahead of his party. The 2010 elections showed a national unwillingness to show that kind of personal support to Democratic candidates in Republican areas, and Pomeroy lost 55%-45% to Rick Berg. Pomeroy did vote for the health care bill and that did not help him, but it probably did not matter. This should be a safe Republican seat and barring disaster, Berg should not have much difficulty holding it. LIKELY REPUBLICAN.