State of the Day - Ohio

Ohio was originally settled by both Northerners and Southerners, which created a geographical political divide that mirrored the nation and persists to this day. This has made Ohio a perennially important state, and indeed, Republicans have always relied on it to win national office. The state gave the nation a series of Republican Presidents after the Civil War, but Union strength and the New Deal helped revitalize the Democrats after the New Deal realignment.

Over the last fifty years Ohio has been the most important swing state in national elections, not having voted for a loser since Richard Nixon in 1960, but Republicans generally have had an edge in state contests. Democrats took control in 2006, as a down economy, tax increases, and scandal led the party to win the Governor's Mansion, a Senate seat, a House seat, and several statewide offices. Democrats continued to surge in 2008, delivering the state to Barack Obama while picking up three House seats and the State House. Through all this population growth has stagnated as the economy has remained primarily industrial, big company focused, and stuck in a seemingly permanently sluggish state. While Republicans have always run best in the Southwest part of the state, Democrats rely on the heavily unionized population in the Northeast and African-American voters in Cleveland.

The Republicans bounced back in a big way in 2010. They easily kept the open Senate seat of George Voinovich and defeated Democratic Governor Ted Strickland. They also captured five House seats, four of which they had lost in the 2006-2008 disasters. They also recaptured full control of the State Legislature. Looking forward to 2012, Ohio will clearly again be a prime battleground in the Presidential election though at the moment it is not looking good for President Obama. Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown will also face a major test as he runs for a second term.

Ohio is projected to lose two House seats from the 2010 Census. As a result of the 2010 elections Republicans will control the process. The biggest population loss in the state is around Cleveland and the industrial area from Youngstown in the East to Toledo in the west. This is also the most Democratic district in the state. The easiest district to eliminate would be that of Marcia Fudge in Cleveland, which lost 10% of its population. However, those in control of redistricting will not eliminate a black majority district. Expect Fudge to pick up the rest of Cleveland, in essence squeezing Dennis Kucinich out of his seat and into a primary with either Fudge or Betty Sutton. Republicans also will probably try to draw out Tim Ryan out of the population losing Mahoning Valley, but must be careful because of much of his heavily Democratic district is surrounded by marginal territory.

President – 20 Electoral Votes

Ohio is just about even in White House races. It voted one point more Democratic than average for George W. Bush in 2004, and one point less Democratic than average for Barack Obama in 2008. With a large number of electoral votes on a basically even playing field, we can guarantee that the GNP of several small nations will be spent here in 2012. Ohio is the canary in the coal mine, and will almost certainly vote for the winner. However, there is a caveat. President Obama seems to have lost working class white voters, who make up a disproportionate part of the Democratic voting base here. In a close election, this could put him at more of a disadvantage than might appear on paper. It is possible for a Democrat to win without winning Ohio, however, as Al Gore very nearly proved in 2000. I cannot see a scenario in which a Republican could do the same. A recent Rasmussen poll showed Obama’s approval rating here at an anemic 45%, with 46% strongly disapproving of his job performance and 8% somewhat disapproving.

With a primary a month after Super Tuesday, Ohio could prove to be an important state if there is a still a competition past that point, as it was for the Democrats in 2008. Given Ohio's economic problems, I think it could be a good opportunity for an economic centered candidate like Mitt Romney. LEAN REPUBLICAN.

Governor – Ted Strickland (D)

Two years ago, Strickland was popular and considered a potential Vice Presidential pick. By the end, things were so bad it seems he did well to lose by only 49%-47% to John Kasich. Kasich now has a difficult job and will be hard pressed to maintain his own popularity. TOSSUP REPUBLICAN.

Senior Senator – George Voinovich (R)

Voinovich’s retirement came at a good time for Republicans, who would have been hard pressed to lose given the Republican tide this year. Still, Democrat Lee Fisher's campaign was notably bad, and the new Republican Senator Rob Portman won a smashing 57-39 victory. Portman is an able and attractive Senator, but there is always a possibility he could be "DeWined" in a strong Democratic year. LEAN REPUBLICAN.

Junior Senator – Sherrod Brown (D)

This promises to be one of the most contentious races of 2012. Brown is a lefty whose victory over moderate Republican Mike DeWine in 2006 was almost entirely due to external factors. Potential Republican nominees include Jon Husted, who was just elected Secretary of State, Rep. Jim Jordan, and new Lieutenant Governor Mary Taylor. TOSSUP DEMOCRAT.

House 1 – Steve Dreihaus (R)

This Cincinnati seat is prime marginal territory. Steve Chabot held it for seven terms before losing it in 2008. Chabot came back to beat Driehaus 52-45. It should continue to be hotly contested, however. Chabot should get an edge because he will need to pick up 90,000 voters which will have to come from heavily Republican territory. TOSSUP REPUBLICAN.

House 2 – Jean Schmidt (R)

“Mean Jean” has gone three years without saying anything stupid, and while her 59%-34% victory over a token candidate is behind a normal Republican showing in this Suburban Cincinnati/Southern Ohio seat, it is close enough to make Republicans breath easier. She will probably need to give up some territory to shore up marginal freshmen Steve Chabot and Bill Johnson, but she can still draw from enough Republican territory to have a safe district. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 3 – Mike Turner (R)

Turner has made himself safe in this Dayton based seat. He should pick up more Republican territory to further fortify him.

House 4 – Jim Jordan (R)

This Mansfield based Central Ohio seat is safely Republican. Expect Jordan to end up with some complex district lines designed to get Democratic voters away from Steve Stivers, Pat Tiberi, and Jim Renacci. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 5 – Bob Latta (R)

Latta's Northwest Ohio seat is mostly Republican and Democrats have not contested it. Redistricters may give him some of Marcy Kaptur's territory, which would help eliminate a Democratic seat further east. If so, this seat may become vulnerable to a big Democratic year though it still should lean Republican. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 6 – Charlie Wilson (D)

Wilson sort of fell asleep in this marginal seat running the length of Eastern Ohio, and lost 50%-45% to Bill Johnson. Had Wilson won this district, it would have been a pretty obvious candidate to eliminate. Instead, expect Republican redistricters to add Republican territory from Jean Schimdt and Bob Gibbs in the Southern part of the state. TOSSUP REPUBLICAN.

House 7 – Steve Austria (R)

Austria turned some eyebrows from his bizarrely ignorant claim that Franklin Roosevelt caused the Great Depression, but he still won 62%-32% in this mostly Republican Central Ohio seat. Like Latta, he'll probably take on some Democratic areas that might make him more vulnerable to a tsunami but should make him fine in most circumstances. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 8 – John Boehner (R)

I suspect redistricters will find some way to keep a safely Republican seat here. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 9 – Marcy Kaptur (D)

Kaptur fell under 60%, but her Toledo based seat is safe. Her bigger problem is redistricting. Expect her to lose some territory to Bob Latta, but she should still have a district because Republicans will want to keep Toledo in a heavily Democratic district. Expect Toledo to be connected on a narrow band to some of the Cleveland area, and Kaptur possibly be in a district with Betty Sutton or Dennis Kucinich. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

House 10 – Dennis Kucinich (D)

Kucinich fell to 53%, but he may be out of luck in 2012. His district lost population and will need to pick up about 110,000 people. The districts surrounding him also lost population. Kaptur, Kucinich, Sutton, and Fudge put together are barely enough for three districts, and Kucinich is right in the middle. He will almost certainly have to run in a primary against one of the three on mostly new territory. TOSSUP DEMOCRAT.

House 11 – Marcia Fudge (D)

This Cleveland seat lost nearly 11% of its population in this decade. However, there will be a black majority Cleveland seat, so expect her to pick up most of the rest of Cleveland from Dennis Kucinich and go on about her merry way. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

House 12 – Pat Tiberi (R)

Tiberi's Suburban Columbus seat only needs to pick up about 17,000 people, fewest of any seat in the state. Tiberi may be a victim of his own success. He's done well enough (60%-37% in 2010) in this swing district that Republicans will feel more compelled to fortify Steve Stivers next door than Tiberi. LIKELY REPUBLICAN.

House 13 – Betty Sutton (D)

This Akron/Suburban Cleveland leans Democrat, but will likely be lumped in with heavily Democratic territory and Cleveland, leaving Sutton with a potential primary. LEAN DEMOCRAT.

House 14 – Steven LaTourette (R)

This Northeast Ohio seat is prime marginal territory, but LaTourette has been strong even in Democratic wave years. The problem for Republicans is that LaTourette needs to pick up about 60,000 people, and he is surrounded by heavily Democratic territory. Expect a seat that LaTourette will be strongly favored in but that would be hotly contested if he left. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 15 – Mary Jo Kilroy (D)

Kilroy never seemed like a strong candidate in this Columbus area seat, and she lost a bid for a second term by an astounding 57%-38% to Steve Stivers, the man she barely beat in 2008. Stivers should pick up some Republican voters in redistricting. However, he presumably won't get to run against Kilroy again. TOSSUP REPUBLICAN.

House 16 – John Boccieri (D)

This Canton based seat leans Republican and Boccieri stood no chance to the wave, losing 52%-41% to Jim Renacci. Because the seat leans Republican, Renacci will probably have to take on some Democratic territory to eliminate Democratic seats. This could provide an opportunity for Democrats if their party bounces back. TOSSUP REPUBLICAN.

House 17 – Tim Ryan (D)

Republicans will probably try to eliminate Ryan's Youngstown based, heavily Democratic seat. It's lost population, but it is surrounded by quite a bit of Republican held marginal territory. Still, with some convoluted boundaries expect Youngstown to be connected to the Cleveland/Akron area and the excess territory will be parceled out in small amounts to LaTourette, Renacci, and Bill Johnson. If Ryan wants to continue to serve in 2013, he'll probably have to run in a primary. SEAT ELIMINATED.

House 18 – Zack Space (D)

Space won in 2006 due to scandals and lost this mostly Republican Southeast Ohio seat to Bob Gibbs by a humbling 54%-40% to Bob Gibbs. This seat will have to be renumbered. However, some form of it will survive, probably taking Democratic areas from Bill Johnson and making the seat a bit more Democratic, but still leaving Gibbs in good shape. SEAT ELIMINATED.