State of the Day - Oregon

Oregon has always prided itself on being on the cutting edge of American life. It was originally settled by New Englanders, supplemented by timber harvesters in the early 1970's and environmentalists in recent years. Oregon has grown quite a bit, but not so much in Portland where land use is heavily restricted. Oregon's progressivism has shown up in politics, where it introduced initiative, referendum, and recall. It bans self-serve gas, mandates recycling, and has the smallest percentage of church attendance of any state. The state has a form of public health care (the state decides each year what treatments it can afford to pay for and does so) and has tried to legalize assisted suicide. Oregon was also among the first states to allow civil unions. It may be the most environmentally conscious state in the union, and in large part opposition to certain environmental initiatives has turned Eastern Oregon very Republican and kept the state competitive. Politically, the state is almost two separate states divided by the Cascade Mountains. Democrats have maintained a small but steady edge in the state's all mail-in elections.

Republicans could not break through in 2010 despite a national wave, failing to take the Governor's Mansion or defeating any Democratic Representatives. However, Republicans were able to force a split in the State Senate. The end result will probably ensure that the current Congressional districts remain more or less intact. That will make 2012 a slow year in Oregon unless Barack Obama continues to flag and makes this state competitive.

President – 7 Electoral Votes

Oregon has a reputation of being more Democratic than it is since it last voted Republican for Ronald Reagan in 1984. Still, the state has actually trended Democratic a bit over the 2000’s. Al Gore essentially tied here in 2000 47-47 (Ralph Nader got 5%). John Kerry won 51-47, three points better than his national average. Barack Obama ran four points ahead of his average, winning 57-40. Oregon should still vote for the Democrat in 2012, but if the environment stays as it is now it very well may not. Still, Oregon's narrow preference for Democrats in 2010 indicate it will be tough nut to crack for the Republican challenger.

Oregon’s May 15 primary probably will not matter. Eastern Oregon voters tend to be quite libertarian, like a Rocky Mountain state. Ron Paul got 14% as the only alternative to John McCain in 2008. It it were to matter, I would pick Sarah Palin over Mitt Romney, especially since the electorate would be disproportionately from Eastern Oregon. TOSSUP DEMOCRAT.

Governor – Ted Kulongoski (D)

Kulongoski was term limited. Democrats may very well have lost here, except popular former Governor (1995-2003) John Kitzhaber came into save the day. Still, he was only able to gut out a 49%-48% win over former Portland Trail Blazer player Chris Dudly. This could turn Dudley into a future officeholder, or it could put him on the path to being Dino Rossi. Expect Kitzhaber to face serious opposition in 2014. TOSSUP DEMOCRAT.

Senior Senator – Ron Wyden (D)

Wyden has gained a reputation as a classy, serious, center-left problem solver. This has probably helped him avoid a serious challenge in a year Republican enough to put Oregon in play. Wyden crushed Republican Jim Huffman 57%-40%. Still, if 2016 is a big Republican year and Republicans actually give Wyden a race, he could have a harder time. LEAN DEMOCRAT.

Prediction: Sen. Wyden (D) 59%, Huffman (R) 41%

Junior Senator – Jeff Merkley (D)

I feel comfortable saying that Merkley would not have pulled out his 49%-46% win over Senator Gordon Smith in 2008 without a huge Democratic wave. This should be a competitive race in 2014, but in this state Merkley would have an edge. TOSSUP DEMOCRAT.

House 1 – David Wu (D)

Wu had a race in this mostly Democratic Northwest Oregon seat, but won 55%-42%. He will need to shed about 30,000 voters in redistricting, and those will probably be Portland area Democrats used to shore up Kurt Schrader in the Fifth District. Wu should be okay, but his district will be more competitive. LEAN DEMOCRAT.

House 2 – Greg Walden (R)

This heavily Republican Eastern Oregon seat will only need to shed about 7,000 people, and nobody has any reason to change this district. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 3 – Earl Blumenauer (D)

This is not a district that will ever elect a Republican. Blumenauer will need to pick up 14,000 people in his Portland district. Expect him to adsorb some Republicans that Schrader would like to dump. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

House 4 – Peter DeFazio (D)

The moderate DeFazio had pretty much iced this otherwise marginal Eugene/Southeast Oregon seat. However, in this Republican year, he was held to a 53%-45% margin. He will need to pick up 23,000 more people who will probably make the district a tad bit more Republican. This could be one to watch in 2012. TOSSUP DEMOCRAT.

House 5 – Kurt Schrader (D)

Schrader was able to easily win this swing Williamette Valley seat without a contest in 2008 due to the huge Democratic year. In the huge Republican 2010 he won only 51%-46%. His district will probably be made more Democratic in redistricting, but it should still be a contest. TOSSUP DEMOCRAT.