State of the Day - Rhode Island

Rhode Island and Providence Plantations (a 2010 referendum to shorten the name failed) was founded by outcasts and has a political tradition based in contrariness, going back to his stubborn refusal to ratify the Constitution. In the 1930's, long Republican Rhode Island shifted to the Democrats in an almost violent upheaval, and the Democrats have remained in charge since. The state's economy stalled for much of that period, but started growing in the 1990's. Still, the state has mostly pursued liberal policies, tinged with a fair amount of corruption in state politics. Democrats have not elected a Governor since 1990, but aside from that, Democrats have dominated.

The new Governor will be Lincoln Chafee, who succeeded his legendary father in the Seante in 1999 and lost his seat in the Democratic tide of 2006. He left the Republican Party and ran notably to the left of the Democratic candidate in 2010. Republicans failed to take an open House seat. 2012 looks like another year of Democratic dominance here. Redistricting will result only in a minor shift of 3,500 people from the First to the Second District in order to meet the equal population standard.

President – 4 Electoral Votes

The Republicans might be able to compete here if Barack Obama’s popularity reached George W. Bush levels. Maybe. The March 6 primary should give a boost to Mitt Romney if the race is still dragging on at that point. LIKELY DEMOCRAT.

Governor – Donald Carcieri (R)

Carcieri was term limited. The race to replace him was won by the former liberal Republican Senator Lincoln Chafee, running as an independent. He ended up running well to the left of Democrat Frank Caprio, so much so he got a not so tacit endorsement from Barack Obama. Caprio was leading until he told Obama to "take his endorsement and shove it." He ended up a distant third as Chafee edged Republican John Robataille 36%-34%. Going forward, it is hard to know what to expect. I consider Chafee a Democrat. His success in 2014 will probably be dependent on keeping a serious Democratic nominee out of the race. TOSSUP REPUBLICAN.

Senior Senator – Jack Reed (D)

Reed may be the least likely Senator to lose his seat in 2014. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

Junior Senator – Sheldon Whitehouse (D)

It’s hard to see Rhode Island Republicans putting up a challenge unless Governor Donald Carcieri runs. If he passes, the sacrificial lamb would probably be one of Warwick Mayor Scott Avedisian, State Republican Chairman Giovanni Cicione, or Cranston Mayor Allen Fung. LIKELY DEMOCRAT.

House 1 – Patrick Kennedy (D)

Kennedy retired from the coastal Rhode Island seat. Democrat David Cicilline had numerous ethical problems and a terrible climate, but still won 51%-44%. It's hard to see Republicans winning if they couldn't do so in 2010. LIKELY DEMOCRAT.

House 2 – Jim Langevin (D)

Langevin got 60% in the interior seat, which is nominally more hospitable to Republicans than the First District. It is hard to envision a scenario where Republicans could beat him. LIKELY DEMOCRAT.

House Predictions: 2 Democrats…NO CHANGE