State of the Day - Alabama

Alabama’s politics have forever been a battle between the Appalachian tinged northern part of the state and the stereotypical Deep South. Like all the states of the old Confederacy, it was long Democratic, though often divided between conservatives and economic populists. The Civil Rights movement of the 1960’s completely reoriented Alabama politics. George Wallace was the stalwart conservative fighting that movement, and he kept Alabama Democratic through the 1980’s as he remained the dominant figure. Alabama has moved on from Wallace and a commitment to civil rights and racial equality is now an accepted norm across the political spectrum. Not coincidentally, Alabama has been one of the best states in economic growth over the past two decades, especially in the area of non-unionized auto manufacturing. Blacks vote overwhelmingly Democrat, and in federal races whites votes overwhelmingly Republican, though the Democrats do remain very competitive in state and local races. Alabama Democrats can win when they do well among the traditionally populist, though socially conservative white voters in North Alabama. Still, Alabama is on balance a very Republican state.

As such, 2010 was a disaster for Alabama Democrats. They didn't come close to winning the Governor's Mansion or Richard Shelby's Senate seat. They lost two conservative House seats they had won in 2008 (one on a party switch earlier in the cycle). The Republican wave erased the last vestiges of the old Democratic majority, as Republicans won control of the Legislature for the first time since Reconstruction.

Republicans will therefore control redistricting. The GOP controls all but one black majority district, so they should basically keep the status quo adjusting for equal population. The Democratic Seventh District has lost population, so if anything the Republican districts will become even more so.

President – 9 Electoral Votes

Alabama will stay Republican even in the most Democratic landslides.

Alabama has a Super Tuesday primary, which is likely to vote for a more socially conservative candidate over a moderate or economically oriented conservative. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

Governor – Bob Riley (R)

Barred from a third term, Riley overcame some early struggles with a proposed tax increase to leave office with solid job approval ratings. Democrats were optimistic that conservative Rep. Artur Davis could win this, but he lost the primary to the more liberal Agriculture Commissioner Ron Sparks. It probably didn't matter in a disaster like 2010. Republican Robert Bentley won 58%-42%. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

Senior Senator – Richard Shelby (R)

Shelby used to be a Democrat in what seems like another time. He still has support from trial lawyers, which means that Democrats cannot even form a base of a respectable campaign. Shelby just won a fifth term 65%-35%. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

Junior Senator – Jeff Sessions (R)

Sessions has perhaps the most conservative voting record in the Senate, and as ranking Republican on the Judiciary Committee, serves as a lightning rod for Democratic criticism. This has no effect in Alabama. Sessions easily checked competent Democratic opponents in his first two races, and delivered a smackdown to an overwhelmed opponent in 2008. Barring a “wide stance” level meltdown or a population exchange with Massachusetts, Sessions should have this seat for as long as he wants it. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 1 – Jo Bonner (R)

Bonner easily checked a weak primary challenge and had no Democratic opposition in this safe Republican district. The Mobile based district needs to shed only 6,000 people and should remain basically unchanged. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 2 – Bobby Bright (D)

Perhaps no district in the country represented the disaster the GOP suffered in 2008 than this one. This Southeast Alabama seat is an utterly Republican district which gave John McCain 63%. Yet, the Democrats nominated a well known and conservative candidate, Bobby Bright, who took this seat by less than 2,000 votes. Bright couldn't have advertised his conservatism and dislike of Nancy Pelosi any louder, but it was impossible for him to win in 2010. He lost to Republican Martha Roby 51%-49%. The district needs to pick up 8,000 people, but redistricters might try to shift some Democrats to the Seventh District to shore up Roby. This would require very convoluted lines, however. LIKELY REPUBLICAN.

House 3 – Mike Rogers (R)

This East Alabama seat is a more reasonable district for Democrats than the previous two, and Rogers has seen some opposition. He received only 53% two years ago, but got a pass this year. Rogers might have put this district on ice, which he has not managed to do since winning the seat in 2002. He needs to pick up about 7,000 people and is surrounded by Republican territory. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 4 – Robert Aderholt (R)

This slice of North Alabamais one of the safest Republican seats in the country, and Aderholt was sensibly unopposed. He heeds to add about 12,000 people in redistricting, which will come from even more Republican territory. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 5 – Parker Griffith (R)

The Republicans had actually never won the election for this northern Alabama seat, which should be a Republican lock, until this year. Veteran Democratic conservative Bud Cramer held it for years, and in 2008 the Democratic wave allowed another local conservative Democrat Parker Griffith, to eek out a win. Griffith found the national Democratic Party too liberal for his tastes (or electoral prospects) and switched parties in late 2009. Nobody let the local GOP in on the welcoming party, and he found himself on the wrong end of a primary pounding from Madison County Commissioner Mo Brooks, who easily won the seat 58%-42% in November. Now that this seat has taken the plunge it isn't going blue again anytime soon. The seat needs to shed 15,000 people. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 6 – Spencer Bachus (R)

This may be the most Republican district in the nation. Bachus easily beat back a primary challenge. He had no Democratic opponent, probably because the party couldn’t find a member in the district. The Suburban Birmingham seat needs to lose 53,000 people, which can be used to shore up other Republicans. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 7 – Artur Davis (D)

Davis ran for Governor and fell flat on his face in the primary. This opened up a scramble in the Democratic primary for this African-American majority district. Terri Sewell won the Democratic nomination, and thus the seat, in the Democratic primary runoff. The seat needs to pick up 50,000 people, but a black majority district will remain for Sewell.