State of the Day - Alaska

Alaska is a unique state that has always balanced reliance on the federal government with a very libertarian attitude. It is a diverse state that is becoming more urban, but that has quite a bit of the wild in its makeup. The state’s economy has centered around oil and energy since the North Slope Oil Strike of 1967. Oil has provided revenue for the state, but it has even further increased federal involvement in the state regulating the oil and building environmental safeguards. Alaska citizens get a yearly dividend check from the $28 billion Permanent Fund, originally set up from North Slope proceeds. The state’s native population has problems, but thanks in large part to smart federal policies, they do better here than in the “Lower 48”. Other federal policies have been more controversial, such as the ban on oil drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge. The newest energy project in Alaska is a natural gas pipeline, which was the main issue that brought Sarah Palin to the Governor’s Mansion. Fishing and tourism remain important. Corruption has been a problem, and Palin capitalized on corruption issues surrounding former Republican Governor Frank Murkowski, former Senator Ted Stevens, Rep. Don Young, and several state legislators. By 2008, this had overwhelmed the ability of the veteran Congressional delegation to secure federal funds. Stevens lost and Young nearly did as well. Despite these setbacks and some local quirks, Alaska remains mostly Republican.

Afther their brief 2008 resurgence, Alaska Democrats turned back into pumpkins in 2010, as Governor Sean Parnell and Rep. Don Young were re-elected easily. Conservatives did suffer a defeat of sorts as Senator Lisa Murkowski was reelected as a write-in after losing the Republican primary to Joe Miller, who promptly imploded.

There is no reason to believe that Democrats can challenge Young or contend for the state's three Electoral Votes in 2012.

President - 3 Electoral Votes

Alaska briefly looked potentially competitive in 2008 until Sarah Palin arrived on the Republican ticket. Had McCain looked elsewhere for a running mate, he probably still would have won Alaska. I cannot imagine the state being competitive in 2012, and presumably Alaska will send Palin delegates to the national convention. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

Governor – Sean Parnell (R)

Parnell came close to a promotion twice in 2008, losing a primary challenge to Don Young by 204 votes and then finding himself in position to succeed Sarah Palin should she have been elected Vice President. He remained Lieutenant Governor, but surprisingly became Governor when Palin resigned. Parnell easily defeated Ethan Berkowitz 59%-38%, and given Alaska's Republican bent will be a strong favorite for another term in 2014. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

Senior Senator – Lisa Murkowski (R)

Murkowski lost the primary narrowly to Tea Partier Joe Miller. The Republican nominee turned out to be one of the worst candidates in recent memory, totally alienating pretty much anybody outside of the activist Republican base. The Democrat was a total non-entity. As a result, Murkowski managed to win reelection as a write-in candidate by approximately 39%-35% to 23% for the Democrat (it is hard to tell exactly the margin at this point because of the difficulty of counting write-in votes). Miller has been contesting the election in court, but it is pretty clear that he won't win. Murkowski will get another six years, and God only knows what will happen in 2016. TOSSUP REPUBLICAN.

Junior Senator – Mark Begich (D)

I feel pretty certain in saying that Begich would not have won had Ted Stevens not been convicted of a felony a week before the election. I say this because Stevens came disturbingly close to winning anyway. Any ambitious Alaska Republican is almost certainly eyeing this race already. Begich will certainly do all he can to produce a moderate record, though he did support the Obama Health Bill. He would have pretty much no chance against a generic Republican in a year like 2010, but we have no idea what 2014 will look like. I still think he will begin his race as an underdog. LEAN REPUBLICAN.

House At-Large – Don Young (R)

Young nearly lost both primary and general elections in 2008 due to ethical issues. It looked as if an indictment was imminent, but two years later nothing has come of that. Until something does, Young is safe. SAFE REPUBLICAN.