State of the Day - Arizona

Note: Arizona was accidentally published before Alabama and Alaska. Rather than pulling this back, we will be publishing State of the Race tomorrow, followed by State of the Day articles for Alabama and Alaska on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively.

Arizona has some of the oldest communities of Native Americans, but it is also one of the nation’s fastest growing states. Its population has increased 27% in this decade. Originally, Arizona was a sparsely populated, agricultural state. However, after World War II, the state’s libertarian policies, personified by Senator Barry Goldwater, attracted many new businesses and people who helped make Arizona one of the most Republican states. It has grown through immigration, but also attracted Americans from other states drawn by the booming technology and housing sectors. Illegal immigration from Mexico has caused controversy, culminating in the nationally controversial bill requiring police officers to inquire about immigration status in certain situations earlier this year. The issue has festered even as crackdowns and a slowing economy has reduced immigration. The housing collapse had a particularly pernicious effect here, and puts the state’s low taxes at risk. Democrats have improved their standing this decade, with Janet Napolitano twice winning the Governor’s Mansion and the capture of three formerly Republican House seats in 2006 and 2008. Still, the state still retains its libertarian consensus, even if the immigration issue appears to be driving the 2010 elections.

2010 was a disaster for Arizona Democrats. Despite winning national attention for a bumbling debate performance, Republican Governor Jan Brewer won reelection easily over a strong Democratic opponent. Democrats lost two House seats (and kept a third only because of a terrible Republican candidate) all while failing to threaten John McCain. Arizona should be more competitive in a normal year, but given the rise of the immigration issue and President Obama's suit against the state, it seems that Republicans will maintain an advantage, at least for the short term.

Arizona will pick up one seat in 2012. Arizona has an independent redistricting commision. The fastest growing area by far is the heavily Republican Phoenix suburbs. This would make it pretty likely to create a new seat that, at minimum, gives Republicans a very good chance to win. if I had to guess, a heavily Republican seat will be created at the expense of strengthening Eighth District Democrat Gabrielle Giffords.

President – 10 Electoral Votes

Frankly, Barack Obama probably would have won this state in 2008 had John McCain not been the Republican nominee. He would not win it if the election occurred today, and he looks unlikely to come close here. While I generally do not think the immigration issue is a big winner for Republicans in general elections (see Hayworth, JD and Graf, Randy), suing the state with great fanfare probably will not work in his favor. Also, the immigration issue seemed to work better for Arizona Republicans than it did in 2006 or 2008. A recent poll showed that 54% of Arizonans “strongly disapproved” of Obama. He has probably put Arizona too far out of reach even if he improves his standing.

As of now, Arizona’s primary is scheduled for February 28, three weeks after Super Tuesday. It could very well move up. It is a wide open state which could be very important if there is still a race after Super Tuesday. Arizona is more libertarian than social conservative and seems to have a preference for economic conservatives. Steve Forbes won here in 1996 and Mitt Romney lost to Arizonan John McCain by a respectable 47%-34% here in 2008. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

Governor – Jan Brewer (R)

Brewer was elected Secretary of State in 2002 and became Governor in 2009 when Janet Napolitano resigned to become Secretary of Homeland Security. For a while her standing was very weak, and she faced primary challenges and was running behind Democratic Attorney General Terry Goddard. However, her standing improved drastically when she signed the immigration law. Her primary challenges essentially disappeared, and she started running twenty points ahead of Goddard, and continued to do so even after a disastrous debate performance. Brewer ended up winning 55%-42%, and is now a national star for anti-immigration conservatives. LEAN REPUBLICAN.

Senior Senator – John McCain (R)

McCain faced a strong primary challenge from former Rep. J.D. Hayworth, but easily checked it by moving himself shamelessly to the right. McCain fancies himself as an honorable and principled man, but he gets to be the own judge of his honor and principle. He never had any serious risk of losing to Democrat Rodney Glassman, winning 59%-35%. LIKELY REPUBLICAN.
Junior Senator – Jon Kyl (R)

Kyl is the Minority Whip. He easily survived against a decent opponent in the disastrous GOP year of 2006. Approaching 2012, he should be fine. Democrats will have to defend a large amount of open seats elsewhere, making it unlikely the party will choose to target this race. Still, Democrats might have candidates that could give Kyl a run for his money. LEAN REPUBLICAN.

House 1 – Ann Kirkpatrick (D)

This sprawling Northeast Arizona seat leans Republican, but Kirkpatrick won one of the more impressive victories of 2008. She stayed out of trouble but in a year like 2010 had no chance against Paul Gosar, a very conservative dentist who sported an endorsement from Sarah Palin. Even so, he won only 50%-43%, indicating his position going forward is hardly safe. The seat will need to lose 110,000 people, and that will probably come from the more Republican areas closer to Phoenix, so this seat could be very interesting in 2012. TOSSUP REPUBLICAN.

House 2 – Trent Franks (R)

This is a safe Republican seat that includes Northwest Arizona all the way down to Sun City. It needs to lose 213,000 people. The easiest thing to do would be to take that to help create a new seat in the Phoenix suburbs, which might create an interesting open seat in the non-Phoenix area, since the Glendale resident Franks would probably stay at home. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 3 – John Shadegg (R)

After flirting with retirement in 2008, Shadegg took the plunge in 2010. Republicans had a contentious primary and nominated Ben Quayle, son of the former Vice President. Quayle won 52%-41%, which is not particularly impressive for this mostly Republican Suburban Phoenix seat. Quayle has already said some questionable things, so he has the potential to be one of those controversial types that has trouble holding a seat that should be held pretty easy, like Marilyn Musgrave or Bill Sali. The seat needs to lose only 13,000 people, so it should stay pretty much the same. LEAN REPUBLICAN.

House 4 – Ed Pastor (D)

This is a safe Democratic Hispanic majority seat in Phoenix. The seat should see only minor changes, shedding 21,000 people to meet the equal population standard. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

House 5 – Harry Mitchell (D)

Mitchell beat bombastic conservative JD Hayworth in 2006, but seemed to forget that his Suburban Phoenix seat leaned Republican when he voted for the health care bill. When the tide turned for the GOP in 2010, Mitchell did not have enough goodwill to survive, losing to David Schweikert 52%-43% after beating him 53%-44% two years earlier. This seat actually needs to pick up 4,000 people in redistricting, and should remain basically the same. TOSSUP REPUBLICAN.

House 6 – Jeff Flake (R)

Democrats have no chance in this suburban Phoenix seat. It grew by an astounding 45% in the last decade and needs to lose about 249,000 people. The excess will provide a great base for another Republican seat. Flake will continue to annoy Republican leadership with his hard core anti-spending stands for as long as he wants. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 7 – Raul Grijalva (D)

This Southwest Arizona district is not as Democratic a district as you would think given Grijalva’s emergence as a champion of left wing causes. Grijalva went too far when he recommended a boycott of Arizona over the immigration law. He barely won 49%-45%. The seat needs to lose about 100,000 people, and this should help Grijava as the Phoenix suburbs in his district will probably be taken out. Still, Grijalva will be hard pressed next time as Republicans will probably target him from the beginning of the cycle. TOSSUP DEMOCRAT.

House 8 – Gabrielle Giffords (D)

Giffords has become a national Democratic star. She also gets bonus points for being married to an astronaut. Even so, this Southern Arizona district leans Republican and in a year like 2010 that meant that Giffords was in trouble. She was probably saved by her Republican opponent, Jesse Kelly, who advocated abolition of the current tax system in favor of a 10% flat tax because "if 10% was enough for Jesus Christ, it's enough for the federal government." Giffords survived only 49%-47%, ensuring another difficult race in a tough environment in 2010. The seat needs to lose 45,000 people, which won't necessarily help Giffords. If Republicans can find a decent candidate I really like their chances here. TOSSUP REPUBLICAN.