State of the Day - Arkansas

Arkansas has produced more than its share of talented Democratic politicians, most notably President Bill Clinton. This is especially notable because Arkansas, though beautiful, is a small state with few natural resources. Arkansans tend to be quite socially conservative. Without a landed elite like most of the old Confederate states, it has also provided opportunities for businessmen to take chances and amass fabulous wealth. Still, those with a taste for populism have created a political climate that tilts heavily Democratic even to the present day, though Republicans have dominated Presidential elections since Bill Clinton left the stage.

Arkansas's long suffering Republican Party took advantage of the national mood and had perhaps the best election in its sorry history. Republican John Boozman crushed Democratic Senator Blanche Lincoln, and Republicans captured two House seats from two retiring Democrats. The Democratic edge in state politics did not disappear, however, as Democratic Governor Mike Beebe won election easily and the party held the Legislature.

Democrats will control redistricting, but it's not clear that they can really do much. The heavily Republican Third District has grown the most, and needs to transfer about 65,000 people to the First and Fourth Districts. Arkansas is Democratic on the state level, but also conservative, so it is not likely to dump its new Republican Representatatives as easily. Democrats will probably have to be happy with merely making sure Fourth District Rep. Mike Ross can continue to win.

President – 6 Electoral Votes

Arkansas has become increasingly Republican in Presidential elections. It has fewer African-Americans than any Southern state and disproportionately large populations of socially conservative, lower income, and non-college educated whites. In short, it is a demographic disaster for Barack Obama. Barring a total Republican meltdown I cannot envision any scenario in which Obama comes close to winning Arkansas in 2012.

Arkansas has moved its primary for 2012 to May 22, so it probably will not matter. If there was still a race at this point, I would favor the socially conservative, populist candidate to the extent one is in the race. Mike Huckabee would obviously be a huge favorite if he was still around. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

Governor – Mike Beebe (D)

Beebe has very high approval ratings and slaughtered Republican Jim Keet 64%-34%. Beebe will be ineligible for reelection in 2014, and if Arkansas continues to trend Republican this should be a major pickup opportunity. LIKELY REPUBLICAN.

Senior Senator – Blanche Lincoln (D)

Lincoln survived a bizarre primary challenge funded by liberals and unions angry at Lincoln's centrist/conservative voting record. Talk about a waste of time. Lincoln's career came to a crashing end this year as Democrats simply fell out of favor here. Republican Rep. John Boozman clobbered her 58%-37%, one of the worst performances by an incumbent Senator that I can remember. The only other Republican Senator Arkansas has elected since Reconstruction, Tim Hutchinson, lost after one-term due to his own self-destruction. Barring a similar situation, Boozman has put himself in position for a long career. LIKELY REPUBLICAN.

Junior Senator – Mark Pryor (D)

Republicans did not even put up a candidate against the popular Pryor in 2008. One has a hard time seeing a situation in which he would go down in 2014, but one could have said that about Blanche Lincoln in 2006. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

House 1 – Marion Berry (D)

Berry really delivered a blow to national Democrats by retiring and leaving behind some choice words for the White House. Republican Rick Crawford beat Berry's chief of staff, Chris Causey, 52%-43%. The Northeast Republican seat has become seriously Republican in national races, while retaining its Democratic roots in local races. This gives the Democrats hope, but historically that type of seat does not return to voting for Democrats once it has crossed over to the GOP. The seat needs to pick up about 30,000, and due to the circumstances surrounding the other districts it would be very hard to shore up the Democratic strength here. LEAN REPUBLICAN.

House 2 – Vic Snyder (D)

Snyder also created some serious headaches for national Democrats by retiring. This Little Rock based seat is the most Democratic district in Arkansas, but still leans Republican in federal races by national standards. Republicans had a big edge in candidate quality here, which enabled Tim Griffin to win the seat by a runaway 58%-38%. The seat needs to shed only about 7,000 people in redistricting and will likely stay in very similar form. LEAN REPUBLICAN.

House 3 – John Boozman (R)

This part of Northwest Arkansas has always been the state’s one Republican stronghold. Republican Steve Womack won this open seat 72%-28%. It needs to lose 65,000 people in redistricting, complicating any efforts Democrats might make to help themselves. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 4 – Mike Ross (D)

This Southern Arkansas seat is a mostly Republican area, at least in national races. However, Ross has entrenched himself very well. Most such Representatitives lose in 2010, but Ross was one of the few to survive, winning 58%-40%. He may find more competition in the future, but if he survived this year it bodes well for his future. The seat needs to pick up 43,000 people. This probably won't help him, but Democratic redistricters can probably ensure he avoids a catastrophe. LEAN DEMOCRAT.