State of the Day - South Carolina

South Carolina historically has featured grinding poverty, terrible racism, and extremely reactionary (and overwhelmingly Democratic) politics. Since World War II, South Carolina has invested in economic expansion and while it still lags behind in many areas, it has been growing rapidly and is no longer anything near a backwater. Race relationships and opportunities for blacks have increased exponentially as well, though the political result of the Civil Rights Era turned South Carolina into a mostly Republican state. Much of the recent Republican strength comes not from racists but from newcomers seeking economic opportunity. With the retirement of longtime Democratic Senator Ernest Hollings in 2004, Republicans came to have complete control here.

2010 was a very good year for South Carolina Republicans. Original Mama Grizzly Nikki Haley stirred controversy but held onto the Governor's Mansion being vacated by disgraced Republican Mark Sanford. Republicans also defeated long time Blue Dog Democratic Rep. John Spratt. South Carolina will pick up a seat in redistricting, and Republicans should have no problem making it their own (probably in the Charleston area) and continuing to dominate South Carolina in 2012.

President – 8 Electoral Votes

South Carolina, like all Deep South states, has a racially polarized electorate in national races. Like the rest of the Deep South, this allowed Barack Obama to do better than previous Democratic candidates by building black turnout, though he still did not come close to carrying the state. He will not do so in 2012.

The primary, scheduled for the Saturday immediately after New Hampshire, has probably been the most important primary on the GOP side. It has sealed nominations for Ronald Reagan, George H.W. Bush, Bob Dole, George W. Bush, and John McCain. Stereotypically, the state favors religious and social conservatives, although this is not as true as you would think. Yes, John McCain won here in 2008 because Mike Huckabee and Fred Thompson divided the social conservative vote, but McCain and Mitt Romney together got 48%. In other words, the primary will be important and winnable for all candidates again in 2012. Newt Gingrich, a firebrand Southern conservative from just across the border in Northern Georgia, would seemingly have a great shot at making his stake to the nomination here. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

Governor – Mark Sanford (R)

Sanford's disastrous tenure is at an end. He will be replaced by Nikki Haley, who engendered controversy but strong support from conservatives. The end result was a 51%-47% victory over second tier Democrat Vincent Sheheen, which was not impressive for a Republican in South Carolina this year. Haley will be on the spot and this could be a Democratic opportunity in 2014. LEAN REPUBLICAN.

Senior Senator – Lindsey Graham (R)

Graham’s diversions from Republican orthodoxy are much more symbolic than substantive. Even so, he has much more to worry about from a primary challenger than from a Democrat. LIKELY REPUBLICAN.

Junior Senator – Jim DeMint (R)

DeMint was not going to lose anyway, though somebody other than the mercurial Alvin Greene could have come closer than 63%-28%. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 1 – Henry Brown (R)

Brown retired and will be replaced by Republican Tim Scott, an African American who defeated Strom Thurmond Jr. in the primary. This Charleston/Coastal Carolina seat will need to shed about 180,000 people, so it should remain safely Republican. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 2 – Joe Wilson (R)

Wilson famously became a poster boy for the inability of people in the political arena to act like adults when he shouted “You Lie!” at President Barack Obama during the State of the Union Address. This being an era of anger and vituperation in politics, both Wilson and his Democratic opponent Rob Miller were able to raise a ridiculous amount of money. In the end, it did not help Wilson as he coasted to an unimpressive 53%-44% win. If Wilson keeps up this act he could face trouble in a more normal year. This Columbia/Southwest South Carolina is not totally unwinnable for Democrats, so redistricters may try to shore up Wilson as the district sheds 140,000 voters. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 3 – Gresham Barrett (R)

Barrett retired to run for Governor. This overwhelmingly Republican seat should remain that way for Jeff Duncan. This Anderson based seat needs to shed about 75,000 people in redistricting. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 4 – Bob Inglis (R)

Inglis had become somewhat of a moderate and a definite foreign policy dove, which made him an odd fit in this solidly Republican district. He lost the Republican primary to Trey Gowdy by a 2 to 1 margin. Gowdy cruised in November and should be fine going forward. The Spartanberg/Greenville seat will lose about 110,000 voters in 2012. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 5 – John Spratt (D)

The moderate Spratt had two major problems. He was Chairman of the Budget Committee in a year where the budget was a huge issue. He was also a Democrat, and 2010 was brutal for conservative Democrats in mostly Republican areas like rural Northern South Carolina. The new Representative will be Mick Mulvaney, who should be fine going forward barring major missteps. Just to be safe, expect redistricters to try to make this seat a bit more Republican as they remove 110,000 residents. TOSSUP DEMOCRAT.

House 6 – James Clyburn (D)

He won't be the Whip anymore, but Clyburn will still have a black majority district. SAFE DEMOCRAT.