South Dakota was the last redoubt of the Native American population, and even today boasts a (struggling) Native population of 8%. After Wounded Knee in 1890, the state attracted white miners to a sort of wild west atmosphere. The state still has wide swaths of empty space, both in the Eastern Plains and more rocky West. Politically, the state was settled by midwestern Republicans and mostly voted that way outside of a tendency to vote for populists like William Jennings Bryan during farm busts. The state swung hard to the right in the late 1970's, resulting in a repeal of usury laws that has made South Dakota a mecca for banks and credit card companies. The end results have made South Dakota a relative economic success story, especially compared to other states in the Midwest. Farming, ranching, and mining have employed progressively fewer people. Republicans generally dominate national races but Democrats have done well here in the personality driven state and local politics, though Senator Tom Daschle and Representative Stephanie Herseth Sandlin lost heated elections in the Republican years of 2004 and 2010, respectively. Socially, the state is very conservative and has been a leading arena for anti-abortion legislation. Republicans dominated in 2010 and look good to continue a dominant position going forward.
President – 3 Electoral Votes
South Dakota did not have the same appeal for Barack Obama as North Dakota. There is no reason to think it will be competitive in 2012. South Dakota has one of the last primaries, currently scheduled for June 5. Between the timing and the potential presence of South Dakota Senator John Thune, the state is highly likely to be irrelevant in determining the nominee. SAFE REPUBLICAN.
Governor – Mike Rounds (R)
Democrats have not won the Governor’s Mansion here since 1974, and Rounds finished his two terms with solid popularity. Lieutenant Governor Dennis Daugaard won a spirited Republican primary and crushed Democrat Scott Heidepriem 62%-38%. Barring some sort of disaster, Daugaard should be good for two terms. SAFE REPUBLICAN.
Senior Senator – Tim Johnson (D)
Johnson is well liked and well regarded in South Dakota, but he probably could not survive a good Republican opponent in a year like 2010. He comes up for reelection in 2014. TOSSUP DEMOCRAT.
Junior Senator – John Thune (R)
Thune was unopposed, and it would not have mattered if he was. Although something of a blank slate, his conservative record, good looks, charm, and hero status from defeating Tom Daschle make him a serious contender for the 2012 Presidential nomination. If that does not work out this seat is safe as long as he wants it. SAFE REPUBLICAN.
House At-Large – Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D)
Herseth Sandlin kept a moderate voting record and did everything right, but it wasn't enough. She lost 48%-46% to Kristi Noem, an appealing but very conservative favorite of the Tea Party. South Dakota's conservative bent should give Noem ample opportunity to hold on, but personal foibles could put her at risk, especially if Herseth Sandlin tries a comeback. TOSSUP REPUBLICAN.
House Predictions: 1 Democrat...NO CHANGE
Wednesday, December 8, 2010
State of the Day - South Dakota
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By 2012, The National Popular Vote bill could guarantee the Presidency to the candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC).
Every vote, everywhere (including South Dakota), would be politically relevant and equal in presidential elections. Elections wouldn't be about winning states. Every vote, everywhere would be counted for and directly assist the candidate for whom it was cast. Candidates would need to care about voters across the nation, not just undecided voters in a handful of swing states.
In the 2012 election, pundits and campaign operatives already agree that only 14 states and their voters will matter under the current winner-stake-all laws (i.e., awarding all of a state’s electoral votes to the candidate who receives the most popular votes in each state) used by 48 of the 50 states. Candidates will not care about 72% of the voters- voters-in 19 of the 22 smallest and medium-small states (including South Dakota), and big states like CA, GA, NY, and TX. 2012 campaigning would be even more obscenely exclusive than 2008 and 2004. Candidates have no reason to poll, visit, advertise, organize, campaign, or care about the voter concerns in the dozens of states where they are safely ahead or hopelessly behind. Policies important to the citizens of ‘flyover’ states are not as highly prioritized as policies important to ‘battleground’ states when it comes to governing.
The bill would take effect only when enacted, in identical form, by states possessing a majority of the electoral votes--enough electoral votes to elect a President (270 of 538). When the bill comes into effect, all the electoral votes from those states would be awarded to the presidential candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC).
The Electoral College that we have today was not designed, anticipated, or favored by the Founding Fathers but, instead, is the product of decades of evolutionary change precipitated by the emergence of political parties and enactment by 48 states of winner-take-all laws, not mentioned, much less endorsed, in the Constitution.
The bill uses the power given to each state by the Founding Fathers in the Constitution to change how they award their electoral votes for president. Historically, virtually all of the major changes in the method of electing the President, including ending the requirement that only men who owned substantial property could vote and 48 current state-by-state winner-take-all laws, have come about by state legislative action.
In Gallup polls since 1944, only about 20% of the public has supported the current system of awarding all of a state's electoral votes to the presidential candidate who receives the most votes in each separate state (with about 70% opposed and about 10% undecided). Support for a national popular vote is strong in virtually every state, partisan, and demographic group surveyed in recent polls in closely divided battleground states: CO-- 68%, IA --75%, MI-- 73%, MO-- 70%, NH-- 69%, NV-- 72%, NM-- 76%, NC-- 74%, OH-- 70%, PA -- 78%, VA -- 74%, and WI -- 71%; in smaller states (3 to 5 electoral votes): AK – 70%, DC – 76%, DE --75%, ME -- 77%, NE -- 74%, NH --69%, NV -- 72%, NM -- 76%, RI -- 74%, and VT -- 75%; in Southern and border states: AR --80%, KY -- 80%, MS --77%, MO -- 70%, NC -- 74%, and VA -- 74%; and in other states polled: CA -- 70%, CT -- 74% , MA -- 73%, MN – 75%, NY -- 79%, WA -- 77%, and WV- 81%.
The National Popular Vote bill has passed 31 state legislative chambers, in 21 small, medium-small, medium, and large states, including one house in AR (6), CT (7), DE (3), DC (3), ME (4), MI (17), NV (5), NM (5), NY (31), NC (15), and OR (7), and both houses in CA (55), CO (9), HI (4), IL (21), NJ (15), MD (10), MA(12), RI (4), VT (3), and WA (11). The bill has been enacted by DC, HI, IL, NJ, MD, MA, and WA. These 7 states possess 76 electoral votes -- 28% of the 270 necessary to bring the law into effect.
http://www.NationalPopularVote.com
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