State of the Day - Tennessee

Tennessee was a swing state from the moment it entered the Union, and was the only Confederate state that was even remotely competitive after the Civil War. The state has been one of the centers of modern American culture, as Nashville is the heart of country music and Memphis one of the major centers for jazz and the blues (and Elvis Presley's Graceland). Tennessee always had a vibrant Republican Party based in the Western part of the state that did not want to secede, and avoided the one party politics and racial strife that ravaged most of the South. However, Democrats' cultural liberalism and fast growing suburban Nashville has made Tennessee overwhelmingly Republican in the last two decades, symbolized memorably by its rejection of native son Al Gore in 2000. Tennessee continued to become more Republican and voted for John McCain by a wider margin than it ever did for George W. Bush. Economically, the state has embraced non-union auto jobs and the health care industry, hardly Democratic growth areas. Tennessee has no income tax and faced with huge budget deficits caused by the state's TennCare Health plan, Democratic Governor Phil Bredesen chose to cut back the health plan rather than consider new taxes.

Bredesen will be replaced by a Republican. The GOP also picked up three House seats formerly held by conservative Democrats. Republicans also increased their margins in the state Legislature and will control redistricting. They should have no problems locking in their 7-2 House majority. It seems highly doubtful that Democrats will be able to threaten Senator Bob Corker or compete for the state's electoral votes in 2012.

President – 11 Electoral Votes

In retrospect, we should never have expected Al Gore to win this state. It has simply become too Republican. John McCain did better here than George W. Bush ever did, which bodes poorly for President Obama’s 2012 hopes in Tennessee.

The Super Tuesday primary could be interesting. It should theoretically favor Mike Huckabee, but his winning total here in 2008 was only 34%, winning rural areas and Memphis. John McCain got 32% and Mitt Romney got 24%, almost all of it in Metro Nashville. This suggests there is an opening for a non-Southern social conservative here. Huckabee may have to fight for the rural vote this time with Newt Gingrich, who boasts a similar regional edge. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

Governor – Phil Bredesen (D)

Even though Bredesen was the Mayor of Nashville who orchestrated the move of the Oilers to Tennessee, it pains me to say he has been a successful Governor, but he has. That, combined with the Democratic candidacy of Mike McWherter, son of a popular former Governor, should have proven a boon for Democrats. However, Republican Bill Haslam crushed McWherter 65%-33%. It was that kind of year for Democrats. With that kind of result, Haslam will need to pull a Spitzer or Sanford to avoid getting reelected. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

Senior Senator – Lamar Alexander (R)

Alexander irritates some hard core conservatives from time to time. Still, he is pretty conservative and popular after a long career in Tennessee. He’s not going anywhere in 2014. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

Junior Senator – Bob Corker (R)

Democrats hate Corker since the NRSC ran the supposedly racist (“Call me, Harold”) ad against Democrat Harold Ford in their 2006 race. I don’t see what is racist about pointing out that Ford, who was cutting ads about his values from church pews, would attend parties at the Playboy Mansion. If you’re representing Playboy, who else do you get but a platinum blond? Anyway, Corker has emerged as one of the more substantive and impressive Republicans in the Senate. Hank Williams, Jr. has announced he’d like to challenge Corker in the primary. After this Delaware thing, I wouldn’t say anything is certain, but I like Corker’s chances. LEAN REPUBLICAN.

House 1 – Phil Roe (R)

Roe is safe in one of the nation’s most Republican districts. The seat is based and Kingsport and East Tennessee and needs to pick up about 15,000 new residents, but will not change significantly. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 2 – John Duncan (R)

This Knoxville seat won’t be electing Democrats anytime soon. Duncan has nearly $2 million on hand, suggesting a future run for statewide office. Expect only minor changes to the lines to shed 21,000 people. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 3 – Zach Wamp (R)

Wamp left this Oak Ridge/Chattanooga seat to run unsuccessfully for Governor. The primary meant everything in this Republican district, and it was won by Charles Fleischmann. The seat only needs to add about 5,000 people. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 4 – Lincoln Davis (D)

Republican Scott DesJarlais did not seem like much of a candidate, but the "D" was so toxic this year that he beat Davis by a resounding 57%-39%. In truth, this rural Central Tennessee district should not have elected a Democrat in the first place (McCain got 64%, and this district won't elect a Democrat again any time soon). The seat needs to add 10,000 people and should see only minor changes. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 5 – Jim Cooper (D)

Cooper held on in this swing Nashville seat 54%-42%. Cooper's problem right now is redistricting. He is surrounded by Republican territory and a creative Republican redistricting could make his district lean Republican. Still, I would expect Republicans to play it safe and keep Nashville in one seat and simply take out 9,000 people to meet the equal population standard. This is not certain, however. LEAN DEMOCRAT.

House 6 – Bart Gordon (D)

This mostly Suburban Nashville/Murfreesboro seat has become terrible territory for the Democrats. Gordon's retirement led the Democrats to essentially concede the seat to Republican State Senator Diane Black. She should be safe for a long time. This fast growing seat will need to shed 54,000 people. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 7 – Marsha Blackburn (R)

This highly Republican Suburban Nashville/Clarksville seat needs to shed 52,000 people, which will probably be used to shore up the Eighth District. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 8 – John Tanner (D)

Tanner’s retirement from the West Tennessee seat was another terrible blow for the Democrats. However, this is not totally hopeless. While the seat leans Republican (56% for John McCain), it maintains enough of its ancestral Democratic loyalty to where it still routinely elects Tennessee Democrats. In a year like 2010 however, Republican Steve Fincher won easily, 59%-39%. The Northwest Tennessee seat should become much more Republican in redistricting. The Memphis seat next door needs 78,000 people, but this seat needs 29,000 people. The end result should be about an extra 100,000 heavily Republican voters from the Sixth and Seventh Districts, making Democratic efforts to regain this seat likely fruitless. LIKELY REPUBLICAN.

House 9 – Steve Cohen (D)

The Jewish Cohen seems to have made himself comfortable in this majority black seat after easily defeating a flat out racist primary challenge in 2008. The Memphis seat needs to pick up 77,000 new citizens, but this should remain a majority black, heavily Democratic seat. SAFE DEMOCRAT.