State of the Day - Texas

My home state has become big enough to be a driving force in national politics while retaining the wide open culture it has always featured. Texas and Texans have reached the highest highs and lowest lows. It was a poor farming state before oil was struck at Spindletop in 1901. The energy industry remains important, but the economy has become vibrant through diversity in the areas of defense, high tech, and health care, transforming Texas's urban areas into some of the prime growth territory in the nation. The recession has hurt, but not as badly as other parts of the country. These qualities have made Texas a prime destination both for immigrants and opportunity seekers from other state, all of whom contribute to, not detract from, the famous Texas spirit. For its conservative reputation, Texas has been much more tolerant to immigrants from Mexico than its border brethren. Long Democratic like other former Confederate states, Texas is now a nearly one party Republican state. Democrats hope that they climb back with the growing Hispanic population, but Republcian Governor Rick Perry got 40% of Hispanics in 2010 and the Democrats do not seem anywhere close to being able to win anything outside of their bases in the urban cores, Austin, and the Rio Grande Valley. The Texas Democratic Party is currently as low as it has ever been.

2010 was an unqualified disaster for Texas Democrats. They lost two Hispanic Majority House seats, couldn't come close to knocking off a long time Republican Governor with middling popularity, and took a cold bath downballot symbolized by losing 22 seats in the State House. 2012 does not look any more promising for the Democrats in any form.

Texas should pick up four seats in reapportionment. From a pure numbers game, it would not be hard to draw four new Republican seats as the fastest growing areas in the state are the Republican suburban counties. However, there are some problems with this. First, the Voting Rights Act (especially under an Obama Justice Department), will probably mandate one or perhaps even two Hispanic majority districts. Secondly, Republicans just picked up two Hispanic majority House seats in 2010, which will probably require shoring up if the GOP hopes to keep them in better years. Third, heavily Republican West Texas seats have experienced no population growth, and will have to pick up new territory. The current 23-9 GOP edge in the House delegation is pushing it, even for Texas, so expect a couple of the new seats to be Democratic with Democrats having opportunities to expand their numbers by two or three seats in the next decade.

President – 34 Electoral Votes

Neither Barack Obama nor any Democrat will carry Texas anytime soon. The March 6 primary may become important if Super Tuesday does not produce a clear winner in the 2012 primary. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

Governor – Rick Perry (R)

Perry is the longest serving Governor in Texas history. He always seems vulnerable because Democrats loathe him and independents don’t love him, but it never quite works out for his opponents. He easily checked a primary challenge from Kay Bailey Hutchison, who ran the worst campaign of the cycle. In a year like 2010, Democrat Bill White had no chance, even had he run a good campaign. Perry won 55%-42%, and I would not bet against him if he ran for a fourth full term in 2014. Democrats seem incapable of winning statewide anytime soon. LIKELY REPUBLICAN.

Senior Senator – Kay Bailey Hutchison (R)

Hutchison’s campaign for Governor was one of the most pathetic things I’ve ever seen. Her pro-choice views were already dicey in a Texas Primary (which she never had to win to get this seat), and her proclivities for pork were an especially bad fit in 2010. She kept shooting herself in the foot, anyway. Her first ad was a bizarre explanation of why she wasn’t resigning from the Senate to fight health care reform. Of course, if that was her aim then why was she running for Governor, anyway? At one point she claimed she supported Roe v. Wade because it reduced the number of abortions in the United States. Her predictable loss was like watching a slow motion train wreck.

She had said repeatedly that she would resign in 2009, and several candidates spent the year running to replace her. Eventually, she postponed the resignation until after the primary and then said she would serve out her term. However, three Republicans, former Secretary of State Roger Williams and Railroad Commissioners (oil regulators) Michael Williams and Elizabeth Ames Jones just kept running. This simply confirms the obvious fact that even if she runs for reelection in 2012, Hutchison cannot win the Republican primary. Those Republicans may also be joined by Dallas Mayor Tom Lepper, Lieutenant Governor David Dewhurst, or Attorney General Greg Abbott. Former Comptroller John Sharp, a loser for Lieutenant Governor to Rick Perry in 1998 and Dewhurst in 2002, has stopped his campaign on the Democratic side for now, but he may get in gear for 2012 as well. I am certain Texas will elect a Republican in 2012, and I am equally certain that it will not be Kay Bailey Hutchison. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

Junior Senator – John Cornyn (R)

Unless Hispanics really start voting in droves, Cornyn will be safe in 2014. LIKELY REPUBLICAN.

House 1 – Louie Gohmert (R)

Gohmert seems to be aiming at becoming one of the leading mascots for the Tea Party. He probably needs to get behind candidates with more hair, such as Christine O’Donnell. This Lufkin/Tyler seat needs to shed about 36,000 people. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 2 – Ted Poe (R)

When Poe was a district judge, he got some renown for imposing shaming punishments. I wonder if we should consider doing that to Congress. This East Houston/Beaumont seat needs to lose about 92,000 people. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 3 – Sam Johnson (R)

Democrats have no chance in this bright red district. Suburban Dallas will probably get another seat. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 4 – Ralph Hall (R)

The 87-year old Hall said he was going to retire in 2004. He also said he’d never switch parties. By violating the second pledge, he was able to violate the first pledge. This northeat Texas seat is still mostly rural, but it is suburban enough to need to shed 120,000 people. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 5 – Jeb Hensarling (R)

Um, Texas does not have many competitive districts. This seat is based in suburban Dallas and need to lose about 50,000 people. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 6 – Joe Barton (R)

Not even Barton’s turn as Democrat Bogeyman of the Week put his status in question. This suburban Dallas seat needs to lose about 110,000 people. SAFE REPUBLICAN

House 7 – John Culberson (R)

This West Houston district has trended about ten points toward the Democrats in this decade, and it still isn’t close at all. Losing 110,000 people won't hurt Culberson. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 8 – Kevin Brady (R)

Brady has an average American Conservative Union rating of 93, yet the local Tea Party opposed him as too liberal. His big apostasy is guns, probably because his father was a lawyer who was shot by a defendant in a courthouse spree shooting. When does the madness end, Sarah? This Southeast Texas seat will continue to be one of the most Republican in the country. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 9 – Al Green (D)

Barack Obama got 77% in this South Houston seat. It only needs to lose about 35,000 people, so it should not affect the Republican redistricters too much. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

House 10 – Michael McCaul (R)

McCaul routinely runs behind Republicans at the top of the ballot, which might put McCaul in trouble in a district that wasn’t so overwhelmingly Republican. This weird Suburban Houston/Suburban Austin grew like gangbusters in this decade, and currently is about 1.3 seats worth of people. McCaul hopes to do better in a district anchored more toward his base in Austin. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 11 – Mike Conaway (R)

Democrats are outnumbered by wind farms in this Midland/Odessa based seat. Even a slow growing seat like this one needs to shet 23,000 people with the four new seats. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 12 – Kay Granger (R)

Safe Republican seat in Fort Worth, yawn!!!! This seat will lose 103,00 people. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 13 – Mac Thornberry (R)

They don’t do Democrats out here in Amarillo and Wichita Falls. This district did not grow at all and will still stay pretty much the same, only losing 3,000 people. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 14 – Ron Paul (R)

Conventional Republicans have given up trying to oust Paul, whose voting record ends up being one of the more liberal among Republicans, especially on non-economic issues. This Galveston to Corpus Christi seat needs to lose about 70,000 people. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 15 – Ruben Hinojosa (D)

This McAllen based seat is actually a pretty marginal district in national elections. George W. Bush carried the district twice. It still supports local Democrats, however, and Hinojosa survived the wave 56%-41%. It needs to shed about 90,000 people, and they will almost certainly be Republicans from the northern part of the district used to create new Republican seats. LEAN DEMOCRAT.

House 16 – Silvestre Reyes (D)

After four years chairing the Intelligence Committee, do you think Reyes knows now if al-Qaeda is a Shiite or Sunni group? Reyes does know how to win this heavily Democratic El Paso seat. It should survive redistricting with minor changes that make it more Democratic by cutting 50,000 people out of suburban El Paso. LIKELY DEMOCRAT.

House 17 – Chet Edwards (D)

Edwards finally ran out of luck two years after getting a little too friendly with Barack Obama. It probably did not matter however, as all of the white, rural, conservative little Chets lost in the State House. Edwards's humiliating 62%-36% loss pretty much ends Democratic hopes here for the foreseeable future. The Waco based seat needs to shet about 70,000 people. LEAN REPUBLICAN.

House 18 – Sheila Jackson Lee (D)

Jackson Lee survived a serious primary challenge from a City Councilman who was subsequently charged with felony charges of evading arrest since dismissed. Republican John Faulk raised a decent amount of money from the multitude of people out there who view Jackson Lee as a windbag, but this is a heavily Democratic district. The inner city Houston seat will lose about 25,000 people in redistricting. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

House 19 – Randy Neugebauer (R)

This Lubbock/Abilene based seat is one of the worst in the country for Democrats. It has grown slowly and only needs to lose about 17,000 people. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 20 – Charles Gonzalez (D)

This district is not as Democratic as you’d think, but it’s still too Democratic for a Republican to think about winning. The San Antonio district will lose about 25,000 people. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

House 21 – Lamar Smith (R)

Next. The suburban Austin/San Antonio seat will lose about 121,000 people in redistricting, probably from the Austin part. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 22 – Pete Olson (R)

Republicans lost this seat in 2006 only because they didn’t have a candidate on the ballot. The suburban Houston seat is about 170,000 over the equal population and will probably from much of the basis for a new seat. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 23 – Ciro Rodriguez (D)

The vast San Antonio to El Paso seat actually leans Republican. Republicans held it until a December 2006 runoff election caused by a court mandated redistricting. Republican Quico Canseco took it from Rodriguez 49%-44% in November. Democrats will probably fight very hard to regain this Hispanic majority seat, but there is no reason Canseco cannot hold it. There is an excess of 98,000 people here, and Republicans may use that to shore up Canseco while creating a new Hispanic majority district. TOSSUP REPUBLICAN.

House 24 – Kenny Marchant (R)

Not hiring Democrats. This Metroplex seat has 103,000 spare Republicans for use elsewhere. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 25 – Lloyd Doggett (D)

Doggett was discomfited when the 2004 redistricting moved his safe Austin seat out into outlying areas. It still leans Democratic however. Democrats are pushing to have Austin dominating one seat. Republicans could do that and create a heavily Democratic district that basically eliminated Democrats from surrounding districts, or they could divide up Doggett's seat. Still, it will be mighty creative redistricting to create a plan that doesn't give a seat with enough of Austin for Doggett to win. TOSSUP DEMOCRAT.

House 26 – Michael Burgess (R)

This suburban Metroplex seat needs to lose 182,000 people. It will be almost imposssible not to create anothe safe Republican seat in the Dallas suburbs, and you could probably create two if you wanted. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 27 – Solomon Ortiz (D)

This Corpus Christi/Rio Grande Valley seat is 71% Hispanic but is a swing seat in national races. Even so, it usually supports local Hispanic Democrats. It flipped to Republican Tea Partier and talk show host Blake Farenthold, who beat Ortiz 48%-47%.

Ortiz was hurt by the Republican year, but his real problem were persistent allegations of severe ethical wrongdoing. The stink also helped defeat his son, State Rep. Solomon Ortiz, Jr. Farenthold is not Hispanic and looks likely to have a far right voting record, making him a poor fit in this district. The district only needs to lose about 49,000 people, so it could come back in current form. More likely, Republicans will try to shore up Farenthold by adding some of Ron Paul's and Ruben Hinojosa's more Republican territory and using some of this district to create a new Hispanic majority Democratic seat in the Valley. That still may not work, however, because the numbers are pretty tight and there just aren't huge pockets of Republican strength in the area. TOSSUP REPUBLICAN.

House 28 – Henry Cuellar (D)

Cuellar styles himself as a conservative. The district should theoretically be competitive, but why should Republicans bother. Perhaps they should have in a year like this. The Laredo based seat needs to lose almost 108,000 people, which may go to a new Valley seat. Cuellar should finally be able to declare victory in his blood feud with Ciro Rodriguez. LEAN DEMOCRAT.

House 29 – Gene Green (D)

Green keeps winning this Hispanic Majority East Houston seat. He should keep doing so in virtually the same district, minus 25,000 people. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

House 30 – Eddie Bernice Johnson (D)

John McCain got 18% here. The inner city Dallas seat will only lose about 14,000 people. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

House 31 – John Carter (R)

Ho hum. The Suburban Austin/Suburban Dallas seat will need to lose about 138,000 people. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 32 – Pete Sessions (R)

Sessions is riding high after a successful run as NRCC Chair, but he can ask Chris Van Hollen how long that lasts. This Dallas seat should remain unchanged with only a 14,000 person dropoff. It is trending Democratic, but not enough to threaten Session anytime soon. SAFE REPUBLICAN.