State of the Day - Utah

Utah is an impressive acheivement of an oppressed religious group building a wonderful society in a harsh environment in the middle of nowhere. Utah remains a mostly Mormon state, and it has grown rapidly. This ethic has helped make Utah the state with the lowest rates of obesity, drug use, and divorce, and a repository of language knowledge gleaned from missionary trips. While Utah generally voted Democratic through the 1940's, the state's self reliant nature has made it perhaps the most Republican state today. Mormons tend to vote so Republican (80%) that the church has stressed that there is nothing sacrilegious about voting Democrat. The only pocket of Democratic strength at all is Salt Lake City itself, which is the most "gentile" part of the state. Rep. Jim Matheson, son of a popular former Governor, has managed to hold his house seat with relative ease, but that is about the limit of Democratic strength here.

Matheson managed to survive the Democratic disaster in 2010. Republican Senator Robert Bennett did not, finishing third at the Republican convention and failing to get on the primary ballot. Senator Orrin Hatch may face a similar challenge in 2012. The Republican domination of Utah should continue.

Utah will gain one seat in redistricting and Republicans will control the process. Matheson's district is already heavily Republican by national standards but appears safe for him. This occurred even though Democratic strength in Salt Lake City was divided among the three districts when Republicans tried to draw him out in 2002. It is not clear that Republicans could draw him out. Republicans may just concede Matheson's presence and give him a more Salt Lake based seat. The fourth seat should be heavily Republican.

President – 5 Electoral Votes

Utah is about the last place that would ever vote Democrat for President. Mormon Mitt Romney, savior of the 2002 Salt Lake Olympics won 89% here in the 2008 primary, and will presumably dominate the 2012 Super Tuesday primary as well.

Governor – Gary Herbert (R)

Utah elects its Governors during Presidential election years. However, Governor Jon Huntsman resigned in August, 2009 to become Ambassador to China, and under Utah law that necessitated a special election for the final two years of Huntsman’s term. Herbert defeated Salt Lake County Mayor Peter Corroon 64%-32%. He should not have any problems in 2012. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

Senior Senator – Orrin Hatch (R)

Democrats have no chance of winning this seat, but Hatch may face a challenge from conservatives similar to the movement that toppled Robert Bennett this year. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

Junior Senator – Robert Bennett (R)

Bennett finished third at the state Republican convention, which under Utah law kept him off the ballot for the primary, won by conservative Mike Lee. This was not a situation like Delaware. While much of the criticism of Bennett was unfair, Utah should logically produce some of the most conservative Senator. Lee certainly didn't have a problem, trouncing Sam Granato 61%-33%. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

Prediction: Lee (R) 64%, Granato (D) 36%

House 1 – Rob Bishop (R)

This Salt Lake/Ogden seat is one of the safest Republican seats in the nation. It will lose about 198,000 people as Utah gains another seat. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 2 – Jim Matheson (D)

This is easily the most Democratic district in Utah, covering the eastern part of Metro Salt Lake City in addition to rural Southeast Utah. That said, by national standards it should be a safely Republican seat. John McCain won 58%. Matheson was one of the very few conservative Democrats representing a Republican area to survive the 2010 bath. Republican redistricters could try to draw Matheson out, but he obviously has a strong base of support in Salt Lake City, and Republicans already tried to split that base in 2002. He will always be vulnerable, but it will be hard to draw him out. This seat will lose 198,000 people and in creating a new district will make this one more Salt Lake based and more Democratic. TOSSUP DEMOCRAT.

House 3 – Jason Chaffetz (R)

Barack Obama won 29% in the South Salt Lake/Provo seat. It will lose 247,000 people and remain heavily Republican. SAFE REPUBLICAN.