State of the Day - Vermont

Vermont is an old state in many ways but is on the cutting edge of American liberalism. Vermont has spent most of its history as a small state full of Yankee farmers who raised their children to grow up and live elsewhere. In the last fifty years, Vermont has turned itself into a mecca of tourism, conservation, and environmentalism, in the process increasing its population by nearly 50%. The state has no gun control laws but has perhaps the most stringent land use policies in the nation. In the process, Vermont has shifted from a state that voted for Alf Landon over Franklin Roosevelt in 1936 (along with only Maine) to one that is perhaps the most Democratic state in the nation. This liberalism has been most obvious nationally in the form of civil unions for homosexual couples, which Vermont first adopted in 2000. Governor Jim Douglas had been the last remaining Republican of any consequence in Vermont, but he retired this year and was replaced by a Democrat.

There is no reason to expect that 2012 should prove anything but yet another cycle of Democratic dominance in Vermont.

President – 3 Electoral Votes

If we are even discussing Vermont in two years, Democrats will obviously be beyond all help and hope. The state’s March 6 primary comes a month after Super Tuesday. While it would be overshadowed by Texas and Ohio, it should provide an opening for a moderate or economic conservative (Romney or Daniels) over a Southern or social conservative (Palin or Gingrich). LIKELY DEMOCRAT.

Governor – Jim Douglas (R)

Douglas had opted not to seek a fifth two year term. He will be replaced by Democrat Peter Shumlin, who defeated Lieutenant Governor Brian Dubie 50%-48%. Vermont tends to avoid turning out its Governors after one two year term, so Shumlin should win again in 2012. This is doubly true because if nobody gets 50%, the race is decided in the heavily Democratic Legislature. LEAN DEMOCRAT.

Senior Senator – Patrick Leahy (D)

Leahy crushed Len Britton 64%-31% and can keep this seat for life. Here’s an interesting fun fact. Leahy is technically the only Democrat Vermont has ever sent to the Senate. The state was historically Republican. Senators Jim Jeffords (independent) and Bernie Sanders (Socialist) caucused with the Democrats, but never officially joined the party. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

Junior Senator – Bernie Sanders (D)*

*Sanders is technically an independent Socialist, but he caucuses with the Democrats and the Democrats do not run candidates against him. He is, for all intents and purposes, a Democrat, and I treat him as such.

There is no reason to believe Sanders will have any problems winning in 2012. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

House At-Large – Peter Welch (D)

Christine O’Donnell should have moved to Vermont, because Republicans aren’t going to win any of these races anyway. Welch won 64%-32% and is safe as you can get. SAFE DEMOCRAT.