State of the Day - Virginia

As the first and biggest of the original thirteen colonies, Virginia did much to establish the United States and played a big part in the traditions and ideals that would create, and nearly destroy, it. The white landed aristocracy dominated Virginia through the Civil War and well into the mid-20th century. In the second half of the twentieth century, the state changed as African-Americans were allowed to vote, the population shifted away from rural areas, and the DC suburbs boomed. This has led to political shifts changing partisan control of the state about once a decade since the 1970's. Republicans used the tax issue to take control of the state in the 1990's. Moderate Democrat Mark Warner won the Governor's Mansion in 2001 with a broad based victory, inaugurating a decade that saw the Democrats surge in the state. Yet most of the Democratic success in the state, wins by Tim Kaine for Governor in 2005, Jim Webb for Senate in 2008, and Barack Obama in 2008, relied heavily on huge Democratic margins in Northern Virginia. The suburbs here have shifted toward the Republicans here, as they have nationally since Barack Obama took office, leading to the landslide election of Republican Robert McDonnell as Governor in 2009.

2010 marked another course correction in Virginia politics. Republicans picked up two Republican leaning House seats, the Second and Fifth Districts, that had previously dumped weak Republican incumbents in 2008. They also beat longtime moderate Democratic Rep. Rick Boucher in an area that had trended Republican in most other races. They failed by a narrow margin to oust first term Rep. Gerald Connolly out of the Northern Virginia suburban Eleventh District.

Virginia should continue to be a competitive state in 2012. The mercurial Senator Jim Webb faces a potentially tough reelection, and the state should be a prime target in the Presidential race. Barack Obama carried Virginia for the Democrats for the first time since 1964, but Republicans probably have to carry Virginia to beat him. Virginia probably will not gain a new House seat. The Legislature is split, so look for a status quo plan. Republicans would probably like to strengthen their freshmen in the Second and Fifth Districts, but to do so will probably have to agree to strengthen Gerald Connolly and keep the Tenth District winnable for a Democrat if longtime GOP Rep. Frank Wolf retires.

President – 13 Electoral Votes

As the DC suburbs of Northern Virginia have grown larger and more Democratic, Virginia has trended rapidly toward the Democrats. Bob Dole ran seven points ahead of his national showing in winning Virginia in 1996. George W. Bush twice ran three points ahead of his average. Barack Obama won Virginia by 53-46, exactly his national showing. If Republicans cannot check this trend, Virginia will be a Democratic leaning state in a decade. For now, however, I would guess that the state is still just a hair Republican. Barack Obama organized heavily here, and John McCain most certainly did not, which probably gave the Democrat a couple of points. Obama has not seemed to “take” here as President, and this means that Virginia is in serious danger of flipping back toward the Republicans in 2012.

Virginia’s primary is scheduled for February 14, making it one of the first tests after Super Tuesday. If the race is still ongoing, this could be a very important primary. Evangelicals are a huge presence here and I would expect a Palin/Thune/Huckabee type to have an edge over a Romney/Daniels. Mike Huckabee won 41% here in 2008 even though his campaign was effectively over the week before. LIKELY REPUBLICAN.

Governor – Robert McDonnell (R)

Virginia is the last state to limit its governors to one term. Lt. Governor Bill Bolling stood aside for McDonnell in 2009 and presumably will be the 2013 GOP nominee. Virginia has elected a Governor of the opposite party of the President for almost forty years now, and it probably will again in 2013. TOSSUP REPUBLICAN.

Senior Senator – Jim Webb (D)

Webb is a rather mercurial fellow. He is one of the more conservative Democrats. He also has a pugnacious personality who takes on some rather odd causes. His victory in 2006 had more to do with the national climate and the self-flagellation of his opponent, George Allen. I could see his appeal going either way. He should receive a strong challenge in 2012. Allen is reportedly considering a rematch and appears to have a free pass to the nomination if he wants it. Allen does not seem ideally suited to appeal to swing voters, but he could probably help himself in this regard if he manages to avoid duplicating one of the worst campaigns in recent memory. The 2012 election will probably also depend on the national climate. TOSSUP REPUBLICAN.

Junior Senator – Mark Warner (D)

Unlike Webb, Warner has demonstrated broad appeal as a popular former Governor. He is much less likely to have trouble winning reelection in 2014. LIKELY DEMOCRAT.

House 1 – Rob Wittman (R)

Democrat Krystal Ball did not forsee her 64%-35% defeat. This meandering district, which includes Fredericksburgt, Williamsburg, and part of the Hampton Roads area, is a mostly Republican district where the Democrats could not top 42% in the best climate imaginable with a Presidential candidate who had a strong organization turning out votes. It needs to lose 46,000 people in redistricting. That will probably be used to shore up Scott Rigell in the Second District. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 2 – Glenn Nye (D)

This Virginia Beach/Norfolk district is the home of Pat Robertson and leans Republican, though Obama did carry it 51%-48%. That victory swept Nye into office 52%-47% over the perennially underwhelming incumbent Thelma Drake. Nye acted conservatively in office but had no chance in this environment, losing 53%-43% to Scott Rigell, who looks like a comer in the Republican Party. This seat needs to gain about 42,000 people, which should help give Rigell a boost. LEAN REPUBLICAN.

House 3 – Bobby Scott (D)

This seat is carefully drawn to put blacks between Norfolk and Richmond into a black majority district. While the seat needs to add 40,000 residents, no one can doubt that there will be a majority black seat safe for Scott. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

House 4 – Randy Forbes (R)

Forbes escaped two Democratic cycles without a serious challenge in this Republican leaning suburban Richmond and surrounds seat. Forbes should continue cruising, minus 17,000 constituents after redistricting. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 5 – Tom Perriello (D)

Democrat Tom Perriello won this Republican leaning rural Southern Virginia seat in 2008 by 727 votes over Virgil Goode, an incumbent who had a tendency to stick his foot in his mouth. Perriello was obviously going to be very vulnerable under any circumstance. Perriello, an earnest liberal, did everything people say they want their Congressman to do. He worked his district hard and voted for what he thought was right regardless of pressure. He then proved why so few politicians do that, losing 51%-47% to Robert Hurt. In all actuality, Perriello was probably helpless no matter what he did in a year like 2010. This seat needs to pick up about 34,000 new people and is surrounded by Republican territory. Democrats have proven they can be competitive here, but winning this seat back will be difficult. TOSSUP REPUBLICAN.

House 6 – Bob Goodlatte (R)

Nothing to see here. The Northwest Virginia seat is safely Republican, but needs to pick up 22,000 new people. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 7 – Eric Cantor (R)

This Central Virginia district isn’t totally Republican, but the incoming Majority Leader will be very difficult to beat. The district needs to shed about 30,000 people, which might help Robert Hurt. LIKELY REPUBLICAN.

House 8 – Jim Moran (D)

Moran’s frequent ethical peccadilloes make him continually vulnerable to a primary challenger. However, the Arlinton/Alexandria district is filled with government employees, making it impossible for Republicans. It needs to pick up 38,000 people, which will make the district a tad less Democratic but still nowhere near competitive. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

House 9 – Rick Boucher (D)

This Southwest Virginia seat is one of those dwindling number of districts that voted heavily Republican for most everything but sends its culturally conservative longtime Democratic Representative to Washington every two years. Like almost all of these districts, it quit voting for the Democrat in 2010 and sent Boucher packing 51%-47%. The new Congressman, Morgan Griffith, should be safe going forward. The seat will need to add 55,000 people. LEAN DEMOCRAT.

House 10 – Frank Wolf (R)

This should be a swing district in Northern Virginia, but Wolf is obviously popular. In a horrible 2008, he checked a strong challenge 59%-39%, running 13 points ahead of John McCain. Wolf won 63%-35% in 2010. The district will need to shed an eye popping 86,000 people in redistricting. That will probably come from a more rural area which will be transferred to Bob Goodlatte's seat, and could make this district more Democratic should Wolf retire. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 11 – Gerald Connolly (D)

This Fairfax based seat is still a swing seat, though it had trendly sharply Democratic this decade. However, Fairfax County voted for Robert McDonnell in 2009, and Connolly won by 920 vote against the same candidate he stomped 55%-43% two years earlier. The seat does need to shed 47,000 people. That will probably come out of the Manassas/Prince William County portion of the seat, which would help Connolly. He still may have a problem if Democrats don't recover their suburban mojo. TOSSUP DEMOCRAT.