State of the Day - Washington

Washington is perhaps America's hippest state and with companies like Starbucks, Amazon, Boeing, and Microsoft, definitely one of its most economically productive. Washington began life as a west coast port and mining country, leading to polarized politics. The state boomed around World War II due to heavy government investment in hydroelectric power and armaments. Washington seemed a serene island of production until Seattle exploded in riots and protests during World Trade Organization meetings in 1999. Boeing cut back on jobs in the state and the tech bust hurt badly. Still, Washington is doing okay. Politically, Washington was traditionally among the most Democratic states in the union, and while it leans Democratic today it is more competitive than in the past. Seattle is heavily Democratic and South and East Washington vote heavily Republican, leaving the Seattle suburbs to cast the deciding votes. The state adopted Louisiana style "jungle primaries" in 2008, but this has yet to make a difference in any major election.

2010 showed Republican strength as the party captured the swing seat of retiring Democratic Rep. Brian Baird. However, for the third time in six years Republican Dino Rossi fell just short in a statewide race, losing narrowly to Democratic Senator Patty Murray. There is no reason to believe the Republicans will be able to break through statewide in 2012.

Washington should gain one seat in reapportionment. The state has a redistricting commission designed to create relatively non-partisan plans. The new seat will probably need to be based in the Seattle suburbs, which would make it quite likely to be a competitive seat. If Republicans push to shore up Representative Jamie Herrera and Dave Reichert, this would make the new seat more Democratic leaning.

President – 11 Electoral Votes

Washington is the mirror image of a North Carolina or Indiana. On balance it is clearly a Democratic state. Yet, Republicans could clearly win it if Republicans won a solid national victory. TOSSUP DEMOCRAT.

Governor – Christine Gregoire (D)

Gregoire has run five points behind the Democratic presidential candidate in each of her two elections, needing a contentious recount to win the office in 2004. A July SurveyUSA poll showed her approval rating at a rock bottom 29%, making it highly unlikely she can win reelection in 2012. Dino Rossi, loser in 2004 and 2008, has expressed interest in the past. However, he lost again in 2010 to Senator Patty Murray, which really ruins his appeal. Attorney General Rob McKenna is the strongest Republican possibility. LIKELY REPUBLICAN.

Senior Senator – Patty Murray (D)

Murray got her strongest race yet in a terrible Democratic year. In the end, Republican Dino Rossi fell short again 52%-48%. Murray should continue to see strong challenges, but would have to be favored in 2016. TOSSUP DEMOCRAT.

Junior Senator – Maria Cantwell (D)

Cantwell is similarly situated to Murray for 2012. An August PPP poll showed her leading Rep. Dave Reichert by six points and Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers by eight points, but falling under 50% against both. If the climate remains toxic for Democrats, Cantwell could have a problem. LEAN DEMOCRAT.

House 1 – Jay Inslee (D)

Inslee lost in 1994, but that was in a much less Democratic district. This Seattle area district needs to lose about 77,000 people. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

House 2 – Rick Larsen (D)

This is a pretty even district that encompasses Everett, Bellingham, and the San Juan Islands. Larsen had generally had an easy go of things since winning this seat in 2000. In the big Republican year of 2010, his margin was down to 51%-49%. The seat needs to lose about 87,000 people, but it will be hard to make it more Democratic because the Republican part of the district is near the Canadian border.
TOSSUP DEMOCRAT.

House 3 – Brian Baird (D)

The moderate Baird retired from this marginal Southwest Washington seat. In a year like this one, it would be very hard for the Democrats to hold onto a seat like this. They didn't, as Republican Jaime Herrera won 53%-47%. The seat needs to shed 106,000 people, giving the Redistricting Commission the option to stregthen Herrera. However, doing so will make the new district more Democratic. TOSSUP REPUBLICAN.

House 4 – Doc Hastings (R)

This is an aggressively Republican Central Washington district that will not elect a Democrat. It will lose 76,000 people in redistricting. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 5 – Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R)

This East Washington district isn’t quite as Republican as the Fourth, but McMorris Rodgers has no actual competition. It will lose about 43,000 people. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 6 – Norm Dicks (D)

Dicks is entrenched in this Democratic leaning seat, winning 58%-42% in a terrible Democratic year. The Suburban Seattle Western Washington seat will lose only about 35,000 people in redistricting. LIKELY DEMOCRAT.

House 7 – Jim McDermott (D)

Republicans fit this Seattle district about as well as Tom Green on Masterpiece Theatre. If the controversial McDermott was going anywhere, he would have already gone. The seat is only about 13,000 people over the equal population standard if Washington gains a seat. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

House 8 – Dave Reichert (R)

Reichert was a local celebrity in suburban Seattle for his work in catching the Green River Killer, Gary Ridgway. Even so, he had strong opposition in 2006 and 2008 in this marginal seat. His survival was impressive. The much improved Republican political climate gave him a much stronger starting position, so much so that his 53%-47% win seems unimpressive. The seat needs to shed about 123,000 people. This might give Reichert a more Republican district, at the cost of making the new seat more Democratic. Otherwise, Reichert will continue to have close races. TOSSUP REPUBLICAN.

House 9 – Adam Smith (D)

This is not the famous economist. Rather, he represents a suburban seat which runs between Seattle and Olympia and leans Democratic. His 54%-46% win was impressive in a year like 2010. The seat will lose 62,000 people, which probably won't hurt Smith LEAN DEMOCRAT.