State of the Day - West Virginia

West Virginia has featured a coal centered economy for most of its history. The state became unionized and heavily Democratic, but has generally occupied the lower rungs of states in terms of economic statistics. It has diversified some in recent years, but its younger residents have left in large numbers and left the state with a very old population. Mining, particulary of the mountaintop variety, has remained very important and liberal environmentalists have helped turn West Virginia reliably Republican in Presidential elections. West Virginia remains Democratic on the state level, but Republicans have taken two of the three House seats and the state seems to be in the early states of a transition similar to those Southern states have been through over the past fifty years.

Democrats managed to keep the Senate seat of the late long time Senator Robert Byrd, only because the immense popularity of Democratic Governor Joe Manchin overcame the immense unpopularity of the national Democratic party. Manchin will have to toe a very difficult line to win reelection. Democrats have a decent chance to hold the Govenror's Mansion, but Republicans should easily keep the two House seats they hold. Redistricting will require only minor shifts in population from the Second District to the First and Third Districts. Democrats control the process but there isn't much they can do to help themselves.

President – 5 Electoral Votes

It seemed a fluke when George W. Bush won this state in 2000. It wasn’t. West Virginia is now a Republican state in presidential elections, and if any Democrat can break the string it will not be Barack Obama, who lost the 2008 primary 67%-26%, even after it was obvious he would be the nominee. That late primary (May 8 for 2012) means the state probably won’t matter, but if it does it should be a good state for a culturally conservative candidate. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

Governor – Earl Ray Tomblin (D)

Tomblin became Governor in November after Joe Manchin resigned after his election to the Senate. Under West Virginia law, he remains State Senate President until the next election in 2012. West Virginia remains Democratic in state races. Rep. Shelley Moore Capito would be the strongest Republican candidate. If she passes, Republicans will probably nominate either Secretary of State Betty Ireland or State Senator Clark Barnes. Much will probably depend on Tomblin's performance in office. LEAN DEMOCRAT.

Senior Senator – Jay Rockefeller (D)

It is hard to see Rockefeller losing, but if 2014 happens to be a huge Republican year this could be a surprisingly interesting race. LEAN DEMOCRAT.

Junior Senator – Joe Manchin (D)

Manchin was a popular Governor when the Senate seat came open after Robert Byrd's death earlier this year. President Obama and the Democrats were so unpopular here that it almost did not matter. However, Manchin ran an energetic campaign highlighting his opposition to major parts of the Democratic agenda, at one point literally shooting a copy of the cap and trade bill. Combined with Republican missteps, this allowed Manchin to eek out an impressive 54%-43% victory.

It is hard to see national Democratic fortunes improving in West Virginia for 2012. Manchin has basically set himself up to be the next Zell Miller, supporting the Democrats on nothing. If he falls short of this, he will be in major trouble. He is a prime candidate for a party switch closer to the 2012 election. TOSSUP REPUBLICAN.

House 1 – Alan Mollohan (D)

This Northern West Virginia seat had become mostly Republican, though the veteran Mollohan was presumably safe in 2010. However, Mollohan had serious ethical problems and went down in the primary to State Senator Mike Oliverio. Oliverio ran to Mollohan’s right. Only in West Virginia!

Oliviero promptly lost by 457 votes to Republican David McKinley. The new Representatve is hardly safe with a margin like that, but this is the sort of seat that does not flip back to the Democrats once it is gone. The district needs to gain only about 7,000 people in redistricting. LEAN REPUBLICAN.

House 2 – Shelley Moore Capito (R)

The Central West Virginia district has become a Republican seat, and Capito entrenched herself. The seat will lose 25,000 people in redistricting. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 3 – Nick Rahall (D)

This rural Southern West Virginia seat has developed a Republican lean in national races. Rahall has rarely faced a challenge in his 34 years in Congress, but this Republican year will not be easy for him. Still, Rahall is Chair of the Resources Committee, and thus is an excellent position to defend the coal industry so vital in this district. He managed to win 55%-45%. Rahall will continue to be favored, but as West Virginia slowly shifts Republican, he should see more challenges. His district will need to pick up about 17,000 people in redistricting. LEAN DEMOCRAT.