State of the Day - Wisconsin

Born of old German stock, Wisconin has a bipartisan progresive tradition. Originally a heavily Republican state (Ripon, Wisconsin, was one of the party's birthplaces), the Progressive Republicans of Governor and Senator Robert "Fighting Bob" LaFollette helped Wisconsin become a leader in civil service, public education, income taxes, and referendum. With the notable exception of Senator Joseph McCarthy, Wisconsin has provided national liberal leaders such as Gaylord Nelson, William Proxmire, Russell Feingold, and several LaFollettes. The state's economy has generally been focused on manufacturing and dairy farming. This has led to economic distress and the rise of competitive conservative Republicans, personified by Governor (1987-2001) Tommy Thompson, who helped make Wisconsin a national leader in welfare reform. The state is now pretty much balanced between the parties, with the odd (for 2010) pattern of Republicans doing well in the suburbs and small cities with the Democratic base being in rural areas. Tracking the national results, 2010 was a big year for Wisconsin Republicans who knocked off Feingold, took the open Governor's Mansion, and won two House seats.

Wisconsin should continue to be competitive, and should provide a pretty good bellwether for national results in 2012. Republicans will control redistricting, but it will be very hard to do anything useful. Democratic Reps. Tammy Baldwin and Gwen Moore have very safe districts. Republicans will try first to shore up new Representatives Sean Duffy and Reid Ribble. To do so will probably require switching some territory between the Third and Seventh Districts, making Ron Kind immune to challenge.

President – 10 Electoral Votes

Wisconsin will inevitably be seriously contested in 2012. It is trending a bit Democratic, however. George W. Bush lost it twice by less than a point, the first time matching his national average and the second time running two points behind that average. Barack Obama ran three points ahead of his national showing, winning 56%-43.% Wisconsin is closely divided such that either party could win, though Democrats absolutely must win the state to win nationally.

Wisconsin’s primary is scheduled for two weeks after Super Tuesday, making it potentially important if the race goes beyond that point. In the unlikely event Tim Pawlenty is still in the race, he would have to win this race in his backyard. TOSSUP REPUBLICAN.

Governor – James Doyle (D)

Doyle decided not to run for a third term, undoubtedly influenced by low approval ratings. Combined with the national mood, Republican Milwaukee County Executive Scott Walker had a relatively easy time defeating Democratic Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett. His will not be an easy job. TOSSUP REPUBLICAN.

Senior Senator – Herb Kohl (D)

Even if somebody wanted to run against Kohl in 2012, he’d have to deal with about a gazillion dollars. Rep. Paul Ryan has already announced he will only consider running if Kohl retires. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

Junior Senator – Russell Feingold (D)

Wave elections happen when incumbents lose, even though they would not normally face much of a test. The Feingold election defines "wave". Republican Ron Johnson beat him 52%-47%. Johnson is usually referred to as a Tea Partier, but he is a much more complex and appealing figure than somebody like Rand Paul. He could turn out to be a Rod Grams type or he could build a solid career. Time will tell. TOSSUP REPUBLICAN.

House 1 – Paul Ryan (R)

Ryan proves my theory that voters are ready to vote for serious candidates. This Southeast Wisconsin seat is a very marginal district that Obama carried, yet the very conservative Ryan never had any problems. The seat needs to lose 21,000 people in redistricting. Given that he's about to become a very prominent conservative figure, redistricters should try to find a way to shove some of his more Democratic territory to Gwen Moore. I'd expect Ryan to have a safer district. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 2 – Tammy Baldwin (D)

The Madison-based seat is a Democratic stronghold. The seat needs to lose 28,000 people, which will probably go to Ron Kind. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

House 3 – Ron Kind (D)

Kind is a veteran Democrat in a Democratic leaning rural Southeast Wisconsin seat and rarely has any problems getting reelected. 2010 was not a good year for people like Kind, but he held on 50%-47%. The seat needs to lose only about 8,000 people. Republicans would like to target Kind, but it will probably be impossible to do so without ending the career of new Seventh District Rep. Sean Duffy. Under the current lines, Kind would remain vulnerable. TOSSUP DEMOCRAT.

House 4 – Gwen Moore (D)

This Milwaukee district is one of the most Democratic in the country. It needs to gain 36,000 people, but this fact won't change. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

House 5 – Jim Sensenbrenner (R)

The Waukesha/Suburban Milwaukee seat is safely Republican and should remain so, losing only 6,000 people. SAFE REPUBLICAN.


House 6 – Tom Petri (R)

Petri did not receive a real challenge in this Republican leaning seat during the bad Republican years. The Sheboygan/Oshkosh area seat leans Republican anyway, but it is iced down for Petri. It needs to pick up about 8,000 people. Republicans would love to use this seat to shore up Eight District Rep. Reid Ribble, but doing so would leave this seat vulnerabe if it came open. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 7 – David Obey (D)

Obey’s decision to retire opened up this tossup Northwest Wisconsin seat to a competitive race. It was won by Republican Sean Duffy by an impressive 52%-44%. Duffy is considered a Republican star, but he will be very hard pressed to win reelection here in a better Democratic year. Look for Republican redistricters to try to help him by exchanging some of his more Democratic territory for more Republican areas in Ron Kind's district. The messier the lines look, the better for Duffy. If the district remains the same just adding 15,000 people for equal population, Duffy becomes a big underdog. TOSSUP DEMOCRAT.

House 8 – Steve Kagen (D)

Kagen won this very marginal Green Bay based seat in 2006. He quickly won a reputation for being a firebrand, especially after confronting Karl Rove in a White House restroom. In 2008,, he won thanks in large part to the Democratic tide. In the Republican tide of 2010, he was pounded 55%-45% by Tea Partier Reid Ribble. The new Congressman here is not considered a star like Duffy, but he should have a bit of a better chance to hold the seat. This is good, because under the circumstances there is very little Republicans can do to make his seat more Republican without causing problems elsewhere. The seat only needs to add about 500 people to meet the equal population standard. TOSSUP REPUBLICAN.