State of the Day - Louisiana

Louisiana, with its charm, corruption, and horrendous public policy problems, is politically in a netherworld between the Deep South and a Latin American banana republic. The devastation caused by Hurricane Katrina in 2005 may just totally remake this fragile society. Despite the obvious vulnerability of New Orleans, Louisiana's leadership and political culture totally failed to prepare for or react to the storm. The incident destroyed the reputations of President George W. Bush and Democratic Governor Kathleen Babineaux Blanco. In reality, blame goes back generations and through all levels of government. The state was originally a colony of Spain and France (whose Napoleonic Code still forms the basis of law here), and has always relied on natural resources. Governor (1928-1932) and Senator (1932-1935) Huey Long might have been the most unabashedly populist political figure in American history, and his legacy still affects the state to this day. Since then the politics here has centered around Longs or their ilk (Earl and Russell Long, Edwin Edwards) and rarely victorious reformers (David Treen, Buddy Roemer, Bobby Jindal), and the state has fallen behind. Oil fueled a boom in the 1970's and bust during the 1980's, and since then gambling and tourism have played major roles. Population growth has been very slow and the New Orleans area lost population after Katrina. The state has become quite Republican in national elections, though personality is still more important than party on the state and local level. Still, the balance seems to be shifting toward Republicans. National Republicans do better in the Western part of the state, but Bobby Jindal's base vote came in the New Orleans suburbs. Jindal seems to be the first reform Governor to succeed, and this trend could change Louisiana politics.

In 2010, Democrats did reclaim the Second District House seat they lost under fluke circumstances in 2008. However, despite a strong challenger in the form of Rep. Charles Melancon, Democrats couldn't come close to knock off prostitution tainted Senator David Vitter. To add insult to injury, Republicans easily captured Melancon's House seat. Jindal looks to be a shoo-in for reelection later this year, and Democrats seem to have no chance at a breakthrough in 2012.

Redistricting was split between the Democratic legislature and Governor Jindal. Louisiana lost a seat. The final map protected the black majority Second District and essentially cut up the Third District, probably forcing freshman GOP Rep. Jeff Landry into a primary against Reps. Charles Boustany (currently the Seventh District incumbent) or Rep. Steve Scalise (First District). The other Republicans should be find, and the end result should be a 5-1 Republican majority.


President – 8 Electoral Votes

Louisiana has generally voted Democratic for President as long as the Democrats nominated somebody that could at least pass for a “good ‘ol boy”. Louisiana is more Republican now, and Democrats don’t look likely to nominate someone like that anytime soon. Louisiana's primary is the Saturday after Super Tuesday, so it may matter if the race becomes prolonged. I'd definitely pick a socially conservative candidate over Romney, if any get that far. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

Governor – Bobby Jindal (R)

Jindal has high approval ratings and no obvious challenger. This is unlikely to go to a runoff in 2011. The only Democrats who have been publicly mentioned running are Caroline Fayard, who just lost badly in a special election for Lieutenant Governor and subsequently bowed out, and former Governor (2004-2008) Kathleen Babineaux Blanco, who was so unpopular she couldn't run for reelection. This race is unlikely to reach a runoff in Louisiana's unique "jungle primary", and Jindal may not even see real opposition. Jindal pointedly refused to endorse Senator David Vitter and would probably be in strong shape to challenge him in 2016. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

Senior Senator – Mary Landrieu (D)

In three elections, Landrieu has either had a miserable opponent or a huge Democratic year. Even so, she has never topped 52%. Her luck will run out at some point, very possibly 2014. LEAN REPUBLICAN.

Junior Senator – David Vitter (R)

Vitter got caught using the services of a prostitute. This hardly makes him unique among Louisiana politicians, but it still promised to cause him some consternation. However, 2010 was a year that no Democrat could have won this seat, no matter what Vitter did. Governor Bobby Jindal refused to endorse Vitter, and in so doing left open the possibility that he could challenge and defeat Vitter in 2016. LIKELY REPUBLICAN.

House 1 – Steve Scalise (R)

This Suburban New Orleans seat was one of the first places in the South to go Republican, and it remains heavily so. Redistricting essentially combined this seat with about a quarter of the Third District. It lost part of the northern area of the district in Washington and Tangipanoa Parishes, while gaining some of New Orleans and most of five parishes south of Lake Ponchartrain and on the Gulf Coast: St. Bernard, Plaquemines, Jefferson, Laforche, and Terrebonne. The end result is to make it actually a bit more Republican, if that's even possible. Third District Rep. Jeff Landry is said to be leaning toward running against Charles Boustany in the new Third, although it would also be reasonable for him to run here. Either way, Landry is an underdog. If Landry goes elsewhere, Scalise is safe. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 2 – Cedric Richmond (D)

This black majority New Orleans seat actually went Republican in 2008 due to a series to flukes that combined for one of the oddest election results of modern time. It easily went back to the Democrats in 2010 and won't be going Republican again any time soon. The area was decimated by Hurricane Katrina and had to expand, moving west to take in parts of St. John, St. James, Assumption, Ascension, and Iberville Parishes all the way to West and East Baton Rouge. This keeps the district black majority, although not quite as Democratic as before. Obama still got 73% in the new lines however, so Richmond should continue on his merry way. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

House 3 – Jeff Landry (R)

Democrat Charles Melancon vacated this Southeast Louisiana seat to run for the Senate. The seat has become heavily Republican so it was no surprise that Landry beat a strong Democrat 64%-36%. Unfortunately for Landry, he probably lost his seat in redistricting. Most of its territory to the east is taken away: St. Bernard, Plaquemines, Jefferson, St. Charles, Lafourche, St. John the Baptist, St. James, Ascension, Terrebonne, and Assumption Parishes. Instead, the seat picks up most of the current Seventh District: Lafayette, Acadia, Vermilion, Cameron, Calcasieu, and a small part of St. Landry Parishes. This makes it more of a Southwest Louisiana seat while making it somehow less Democratic than it was. The district is more than 75% made of voters from the current Seventh, putting Landry at a huge disadvantage against Boustany. Democrats won't matter in any event. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 4 – John Fleming (R)

Democrats somehow came within 350 votes of winning this Northwest Louisiana safe Republican seat in 2008, and probably would have won it had the election taken place in November instead of December. The district gets a rather minor makeover. It loses Grant Parish but gains Union Parish in the north and gains Allen, Evangeline, and about half of St. Landry Parish in the south. The changes make no real difference. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 5 – Rodney Alexander (R)

How on Earth did Alexander win this Northeast Louisiana seat as a Democrat in 2002? Louisiana is changing and the conservative Democrats are dying off pretty quickly. This seat also doesn't change much. It loses Grant, Allen, and Evangeline Parishes in the West, but picks up St. Landry Parish and moves east of the Mississippi to take in parts of West Feliciana, East Feliciana, St. Helena, Tangipahoa, and Washington Parishes, stretching all the way to the far eastern part of the state. The changes don't the balance here. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 6 – Bill Cassidy (R)

Democrats somehow managed to win a special election in this normally solid Republican Baton Rouge area district in 2008 thanks to the candidacy of serial loser Woody Jenkins, but the GOP won this seat back by a 48%-40% margin in November. Democrat Don Cazayoux might have won had African-American State Senator Michael Jackson not received 12% as a third party candidate. The success was fleeting, because Democrats did not answer the bell here in 2010.

Much of the black population was taken out to shore up the Second District and this one goes from a safe Republican seats to one of the most Republican seats in the nation. To make up the population it picked up heavily Republican Pointe Coupee Parish and parts of Iberville, Assumption, Terrebonne, and Lafourche Parishes. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 7 – Charles Boustany (R)

In yet another example of the death of Louisiana conservative Democrats, this Southwest Louisiana seat was held by conservative Democrat through in 2004 and nearly retained in that year.

This seat has been abolished and most of it will be in the Third District for 2012. SEAT ELIMINATED.