Does Obama's Race Matter?

The short answer to this question is yes, but not in the way you might think.

I suspect, but cannot prove, that Obama's race and the thought of being the first black President increased his appeal to a decent amount of liberals, particularly young people. This enhanced Obama's appeal well beyond a normal two-year Senator with oratory skills. In a way, Obama's race helped make him a credible candidate in the first place, certainly more so than he appeared on paper.

His race certainly helped him win 90%+ of the black vote, and this was a key factor in being able to win the Democratic nomination. This factor alone singlehandedly won him most of the Southern states. Without such a sweeping domination of the black vote he almost certainly would have lost to Hillary Clinton. Obama was probably responsible for the increased black turnout in November and managed to increase the Democratic percentage of the black vote. This didn't make too much of a difference in the general election, though it did probably contribute to his wins in Virginia, North Carolina, and Indiana.

I am sure that some voters out there refused to vote for Obama because of his race. However, the effect was limited. For one thing, I don't think there are many of those people. Secondly, I would suspect most people that feel this way would never vote for the Democrats anyway. Yes, Obama did worse than John Kerry in the "Jacksonian Belt" of West Virginia, Kentucky, Tennessee, and Arkansas. However, while I will not deny that Obama was particularly unappealing here, these states are on a long term flight away from the Democratic Party, a trend that predates and transcends Obama.

On the whole, I think one has to conclude that Obama's race helped him in 2008. Will it help him in 2010?

I think the answer is yes, and I base this one major point. Since the first months of his administration, Obama's approval rating has hovered around 50%, usually a tad lower. Support for his policies has been quite a bit lower, usually under 40%. His personal favorability rating has been much higher, consistently over 60%. People don't like what Obama is doing, but they like him.

Certainly, the President is a likable guy. But, I think his race might have something to do with it. As Americans we are proud that we have risen above our often sorry racial history to elect a black man President of the United States. We don't want to have to vote him out. We want him to succeed. His success validates our progress in purging our history of racism. More than any other President, we want him to succeed and it pains us when he does not.

This feeling has been keeping the President afloat. Will it be enough to save him? I don't know, but I do know that the President will get more chances than most President. This is the rest of the post