GOP Contender Profiles

Now that a rash of would be contenders have taken a pass on the 2012 race, I thought it would be good time to review the field of those who will or might run. Here's a quick capsule look at the contenders.

Mitt Romney

Elected Offices Held: MA Governor, 2003-2007
Strengths: Money, Organization, Business Experience/Success
Weaknesses: Issue Consistency, Romneycare, No Obvious Appeal to Right Wing
Odds of Running: 100%
Odds of Nomination: 40%

Romney's basic problem is that pretty much everybody in the Republican Party looks at him and decides to try to find someone else. He is a Mormon who began his career as a social liberal, alienating social conservatives. He also helped pass a health care bill in Massachusetts which became a model for the Obamacare Bill, which is the number one bete noire of conservatives at the moment. His explanation of saying that the idea is good for Massachusetts but not for the nation is weak, especially considering it hasn't worked out to well in Massachusetts.

Romney hopes to and has a good chance of being an acceptable second choice, however, and his chances of the nomination depend on doing so. He needs to finish ahead of Huntsman, who is in a similar situation, in Iowa while hoping the caucuses are won by someone who isn't electable (i.e. not Pawlenty). From there, Romney will need to win New Hampshire and hope going forward the opposition is divided a la 2008 or that he ends up one on one with somebody even less appealing, like Sarah Palin.

Tim Pawlenty

Elected Offices Held: MN House, 1993-2003 (Majority Leader 1999-2003). MN Governor, 2003-2011
Strengths: Handsome, Two Term Governor of a Non Red State, No Real Enemies in Party
Weaknesses: No Obvious Base of Support or Platform, Unimpressive Electoral History, Formerly Supported Cap and Trade, Money?
Odds of Running: 100%
Odds of Winning: 0%

I figured Pawlenty's best bet would be to try to out-Romney the original into being Mr. Second Choice. Instead, Pawlenty has been aggressively courting pretty much everyone, touting his social conservative and anti-spending bona fides. This week he has shifted into "truth telling mode", seemingly going after Mitch Daniels fans by talking about hard choices and going after ethanol subsidies. This is a complete 180 from the persona who has been pandering on issues like the debt ceiling.

Pawlenty's immediate problem is simply finding a base of support. His desperate attempts to do so may fail and his odds of falling flat on his face are decent. At the same time, if he can win Iowa he can position himself to go one and one with Romney, which would be a winnable battle. Pawlenty could be electable, but he has the widest range of outcomes.

Jon Huntsman

Elected Office Held: UT Governor, 2005-2009
Strengths: Money, Popularity as Governor, Foreign Policy Experience
Weaknesses: Not a Doctrinaire Conservative, Name Recognition, Worked in Obama Administration
Odds of Running: 90%
Odds of Nomination: 20%

Huntsman is basically in a contest with Romney for being Mr. Second Choice. His path to the nomination is the same as Romney's. He just has to get ahead.


Sarah Palin

Elected Offices Held: Wasilla City Council, 1993-1997. Wasilla Mayor, 1997-2003. AK Governor, 2007-2009.
Strengths: Name Recognition, Passionate Supporters
Weaknesses: Thin Skin, Odd Political Decision Making, Large Numbers of Enemies, Not Considered Electable
Odds of Running: 50%
Odds of Nomination: 5%

I can see Palin winning Iowa on the basis of strong evangelical and/or Tea Party support. Her problem is that her negatives are so high she is considered unelectable, and she would have a hard time winning an election over anyone credible.

Michele Bachmann

Elected Offices Held: MN Senate, 2001-2007. U.S. House, 2007-
Strengths: Attractive, Good Fundraiser, Tea Party Favorite
Weaknesses: Inexperienced, Gaffe Prone
Odds of Running: 60%
Odds of Nomination: 2%

Bachmann and Palin are mutually exclusive, the only real differenct that Bachmann is even less credible than Palin as a President. What I said about Palin applies to Bachmann.

Herman Cain

Elected Offices Held: None
Strengths: Money, Articulate, Business Experience, Outsider
Weaknesses: Inexperience, Name Recognition, Far Right Political Positions
Odds of Running: 100%
Odds of Nomination: 2%

I maintain that one of the fringe candidates will emerge as a contender, a la Mike Huckabee in 2008, because none of the real contenders are obvious favorites of evangelicals or the Tea Party. Cain has as good a chance as anybody of being that person, and it doesn't take much to see him as a major contender in Iowa as a Tea Party favorite, especially if he can continue with strong debate performances.

However, as a first time candidate, Cain is bound to make mistakes. He also will not be generally viewed as an electable candidate. This combination will effectively prevent him from winning the nomination.

Chris Christie

Elected Offices Held: NJ Governor, 2010-
Strengths: Fiscal Conservative Favorite, Popular Brand
Weaknesses: Appearance, Inexperience, Can Offend People, Doesn't Want to Run
Odds of Running: 2%
Odds of Nomination: 1%

Christie is a favorite of economic conservatives for the blunt way he has tried to repair New Jersey's fiscal situation by taking on unions and other entrenched interests. However, his work in New Jersey is not yet complete and could still fail. Christie seems to realize this, which is why I think he is so adamant about not running. Mitch Daniels's departure has increased the pressure on Christie to run, but it won't amount to anything.

Newt Gingrich

Elected Offices Held: U.S. House, 1979-1999 (Minority Whip 1989-1995, Speaker 1995-1999).
Strengths: Money, Name Recognition
Weaknesses: Character, Flip-Flopping, Gaffes
Odds of Running: 100%
Odds of Nomination: 0%

Gingrich has conducted a clinic in the last week demonstrating why he won't go anywhere.

Ron Paul

Elected Offices Held: U.S. House, 1976-1977, 1979-1985, 1997-.
Strengths: Money, Loyal Supporters
Weaknesses: Foreign Policy Positions, Small Number of Supporters
Odds of Running: 100%
Odds of Nomination: 0%

Paul has had great success making his libertarian ideology more mainstream in the Republican Party. That said, Republicans are never going to nominate a doctrinaire isolationist. Look for a replay of 2008, and for Paul to win re-election to the House.

Rick Perry

Elected Offices Held: TX House, 1985-1991. TX Agriculture Commissioner, 1991-1999. TX Lt. Governor, 1999-2000. TX Governor, 2000-.
Strengths: Handsome, Good Hair, Big State Conservative Governor, Record
Weaknesses: Seriousness, Similarities to George W. Bush, Record, Electoral Underperformance, Thin Skin
Odds of Running: 20%
Odds of Nomination: 0%

Some conservatives who are unimpressed with the current choices are looking to Perry. On the surface, it makes sense. He is a very conservative Governor of a large state which has done reasonably well economically. Beyond the surface, there are problems. Perry has become very good at throwing red meat to the base, but he is not a great public policy thinker. His fiscal policies are highly questionable, as Texas had a huge budget deficit this bienneium, which was filled essentially by using accounting tricks and deliberate underbudgeting to borrow from the next biennium, leaving about a $17 billion hole for 2013. Fiscal conservatives will not like Perry on close examination.

Rudy Giuliani

Elected Offices Held: New York City Mayor, 1994-2002
Strengths: 9/11
Weaknesses: Everything Else
Odds of Running: 10%
Odds of Nomination: 0%

Apparently his butt whipping last time was not enough, and Giuliani is considering more. He has no chance.

Paul Ryan

Elected Offices Held: U.S. House, 1999- (Budget Chair, 2011-)
Strengths: Handsome, Budget, Articulate
Weaknesses: "Medicare Bogeyman", Doesn't Want to Run
Odds of Running: 1%
Odds of Nomination: 0%

Ryan is smart enough to realize this isn't his time. He is the first person to really make substantive proposals regarding entitlement reform, and this makes him very easy to demonize. Desperate fiscal conservatives will try to draft him, but he's smarter than that.