State of the Day - Indiana

Indiana, a state that as much as any other lays claim to being America’s “heartland”, has been quite kind to Republicans on the Presidential level. Democrats have long managed to remain ferociously competitive, and often ascendant, in state politics. Indiana Democrats, generally of the moderate to conservative variety, controlled the Governor’s Mansion from 1989-2005 and until 2010 held a Senate seat and a majority of the House delegation. Barack Obama stunningly broke through to carry Indiana in 2008, turning out big margins in Indianapolis, the Chicago suburbs, and the university towns while holding down his losses in the rest of the state.

Indiana Democrats took a step back in the disastrous year of 2010. Evan Bayh retired, and his Republican predecessor Dan Coats easily won the seat over Democratic Rep. Brad Ellsworth. Republicans easily took the open House seat of Ellsworth and knocked off Rep. Baron Hill as well. They also took the Legislature. The lone Democratic triumph came when Rep. Joe Donnelly narrowly held the Second District. The Democratic moment here may have passed, and I would be shocked if President Obama again carried Indiana.

Republicans will controlled redistricting. They essentially drew Donnelly out of his seat, and he decided to run for the Senate instead. The new plan added Republican territory to the Ninth District held by freshman Republican Todd Young. Freshman Republican Larry Bucshon probably saw his district get a bit less Republican, and Fourth District freshman Republican Todd Rokita has a safe district, but in an odd development he now lives less than a mile outside the district.


President -11 Electoral Votes

Indiana had not gone Democratic since 1964, and even in a Democratic year, very few thought a Democrat could win. Barack Obama did. He maximized his margins in Indianapolis, the Chicago suburbs, and the university towns. This enabled him to win because John McCain ran well behind George W. Bush in rural and small town Indiana. I remain convinced this had a good deal to do with McCain’s loud and consistent denunciation of agricultural subsidies. Presumably the 2012 nominee will not make this mistake.

2008 was a perfect storm for Obama here, and even then, he barely won Indiana. He will be hard pressed to repeat that.

Indiana has a May primary which will not be relevant to the 2012 GOP nomination fight. LEAN REPUBLICAN.

Governor – Mitch Daniels (R)

Daniels has brought a sometimes blunt, but effective, brand of conservative government to Indiana. It has made him a national star. To this writer, he seemed the only potential 2012 Presidential candidate that offered something new in the realm of serious conservative campaigning and governing. Alas, he passed, and the loss is the nation's.

He cannot run for reelection. Representative Mike Pence, a favorite of national conservatives, has announced his candidacy and is a huge favorite over businessman Jim Wallace. Other Republican candidates to replace him include Indianapolis Mayor Gregory Ballard, Public Education Superintendent Tony Bennett, House Speaker Brian Bosma, State Senate President David Long, GOP State Chairman Murray Clark, former Attorney General Steve Carter and Eric Miller. Still, the field should virtually clear for Pence.

Democrats are less certain. Potential candidates include Hammond Mayor Thomas McDermott, Lake County Sheriff Roy Dominguez, former House Speaker John Gregg, and Senate Minority Leader Vi Simpson. While Rep. Joe Donnelly has announced a campaign for the Senate, I would not be surprised to see him shift to this race if it appears Senator Richard Lugar will win his primary challenge.

The Republicans have a definite edge. LEAN REPUBLICAN.

Senior Senator – Richard Lugar (R)

Democrats have been writing off this seat for three decades. They could do so again except that Lugar has raised the ire of Tea Partiers and received a primary challenge from State Treasurer Richard Mourdock. Lugar is almost a living legend in Indiana, and I think he can hold off the challenge. Our rating assumes he does. If Lugar goes down, however, Republicans will have a much smaller edge. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

Junior Senator – Dan Coats (R)

This seat came open in 2010 when Democrat Evan Bayh decided to retire, finding himself frustrated that more Senators did not exhibit the self-evident milquetoast moderate magnificence of, well, Evan Bayh. Coats served in the Senate from 1989-1999 and had low favorability ratings during his tenure, retiring rather than making an uphill race against Bayh in 1998. Democrats nominated Representative Brad Ellsworth, a conservative Democrat with two big election wins in a mostly Republican district.

In a normal election cycle, this would have been a fascinating race. In 2010, however, Indiana had some buyer’s remorse on Obama and his agenda. Coats led this race the whole way and defeated Ellsworth by a significant 55%-40% margin. Even though Coats struggled during his first tenure, the Republican nature of Indiana should give Coats an edge in 2016. LEAN REPUBLICAN.

House 1 – Peter Visclosky (D)

There aren’t many Republicans in the Gary area, which allows Visclosky to survive ethical issues. The seat lost the small Republican counties of Newton, Jasper, and Benton, and added the rest of Porter County and part of Laporte County. The end result makes the district slightly more Democratic. LIKELY DEMOCRAT.

House 2 – Joe Donnelly (D)

Donnelly held this swing North Indiana seat against Jackie Walorski 48%-47%. Republicans essentially drew Donnelly out of his seat by removing Cass, Carroll, and parts of Laporte, Porter, and White Counties and heavily Democratic Kokomo. They added in heavily Republican Miami, Wabash, and parts of Elkhart and Kosciusko Counties. Donnelly decided to run for the Senate, and the new district should be won by a Republican. LEAN REPUBLICAN.

House 3 – Marlin Stutzman (R)

Stutzman won this vacant seat after Mark Souder resigned in a sex scandal. The Northeast Indiana seat remains safely Republican, but trades off parts of Elkhart and Kosciusko Counties to the east while picking up Wells, Adams, Huntington, Jay, and parts of Allen and Blackford Counties to the South. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 4 – Todd Rokita (R)

Rokita has nothing to worry about, but this seat becomes a more West Central Indiana seat and less of an Indianapolis suburbs seat. The district adds Jasper, Newton, Benton, Cass, Carroll, part of Howard (Kokomo) and the rest of White Counties to the north, as well as Warren, Putnam, and all of Fountain Counties to the west. It loses its southern tentacle of Lawrence and Monroe Counties, and moves entirely out of Indianapolis/Marion County and suburban Johnson County. The end result makes the district a tad more Democratic, but still overwhelmingly Republican. Oddly, Rokita's residence is now about 500 yards from the district, but this should not pose a problem. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 5 – Dan Burton (R)

Burton's district will become much more compact. It loses Indianapolis suburbs in Hancock, Shelby, and Johnson Counties. It also loses three Republican counties to the north, Miami, Wabash, and Huntington. It also adds Madison County and part of Blackford County to the west. The end result is to take some heavily Republican territory out of the district and make the seat much more Democratic. That said, it is still a safe Republican seat. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 6 – Mike Pence (R)

Redistricting took out the northern part of the district: Allen, Wells, Adams, Blackford, Madison, and Jay Counties. It added some of suburban Indianapolis in Hancock and Shelby Counties, and some new territory to the south in Bartholomew, Dearborn, Ripley, Jennings, Ohio, Switzerland, Jefferson, and Scott Counties. The end result is to make this already safe Republican seat even safer.

Pence is retiring to run for Governor, but Republicans will have no problem holding the seat. SAFE REPUBLICAN

House 7 – Andre Carson (D)

This Indianapolis district was the only truly safe Democratic seat in Indiana and will remain so. However, the seat had to move further out into Marion County so it will no longer be totally safe, though Obama won 66% of the new lines. Carson's grandmother Julia, known her apathetic and shockingly close camapaigns, probably would have lost this seat. Andre Carson will probably be fine, but as he got 59% in a district that gave Obama 71%, it is worth keeping an eye on. LIKELY DEMOCRAT.

House 8 – Larry Bucshon (R)

Democrat Brad Ellsworth held this Southwest Indiana seat for two terms, but it is an uphill fight for Democrats. Bucshon won 58%-37% in 2010. For 2012 the seat will lose territory from the north in Warren, Fountain, and Putnam Counties, and gain Dubois, Spencer, Perry, and part of Crawford County in the South. This theoretically makes the seat more Democratic, but in reality it won't matter much. LIKELY REPUBLICAN.

House 9 – Todd Young (R)

The current district leans Republican, but it switched hands three separate times in the last decade. Young had no problem beating incumbent Democrat Baron Hill 52%-42% in 2010. Redistricting made the seat much more Republican, to the point of being nearly out of reach for the Democrats. The seat picked up heavily Republican surburban territory in Johnson and Morgan Counties and rural Republican territory in Monroe and Lawrence Counties. It gives up more marginal territory in Southeast Indiana: Jennings, Ripley, Dearborn, Ohio, Switzerland, Jefferson, and part of Scott County. Young is probably the biggest winner in Indiana's redistricting. LEAN REPUBLICAN.