State of the Day - Iowa

Iowa was settled by New England Yankees who built an ordered civil society, and for most of the nineteenth century, it remained a stronghold of Yankee Republicanism. In the twentieth and twenty-first centuries, Iowa has struggled economically and failed to grow. However, the past twenty years have shown some improvement as Iowa has diversified its economy beyond agriculture and manufacturing. For years, the state had a sort of contrarian political outlook, opposing Franklin Roosevelt in 1940 and 1944 but voting for Michael Dukakis in 1988. Since then Iowa has reached a stasis as one of the most closely divided states, voting narrowly for Al Gore in 2000 and narrowly for George W. Bush in 2004, voting solidly for Barack Obama in 2008, and reelecting Senators of different parties while maintaining a balance in state politics.

Republicans scored a major success in knocking off unpopular Democratic Governor Chet Culver in 2010, but failed to make any inroads in the House delegation. 2012 will be a very busy political year, as the state again should have an outsized influence in determining the identity of President Obama's opponent. Iowa will also be one of the most competitive states in the general election.

Iowa lost one seat in the Census, and redistricting was done by a neutral board that traditionally provides unpredictable results that neither party loves. That didn't change this time. The two Republicans, Tom Latham and Steve King, found themselves in the same Republican leaning district. Latham has already announced he will challenge Third District Rep. Leonard Boswell in a marginal district, but that has more of Boswell's territory. Democrats Bruce Braley and Dave Loebsack also find themselves in the same Democratic leaning First District, but Loebsack will probably run in the Democratic leaning Second District instead.


President – 6 Electoral Votes

Iowa voted right at the national average for President in 2000 and one point more Democratic than the average in 2004 and 2008. Thus, Iowa is certain to be contested in 2012. It will probably vote for the winner, but in a close election Democrats have a slight edge here. Under the current lineup of states, I cannot see a Democrat winning the White House without Iowa.

Of course, Iowa’s caucuses will provide months of media fodder and the first test for the Republican nomination. Its practical effect will be to narrow the field. Mitt Romney will try to win with superior organization, but that did not help him in 2008 when Mike Huckabee beat him here. Romney can survive a loss here by winning New Hampshire. He has made comments implying that Iowa should not vote first, which definitely won't help him. Other candidates will need to win here to have a shot. Tim Pawlenty is from neighboring Minnesota and is targeting the all important evangelical vote. However, he came out against ethanol subsidies, and this position might blow up in his face. With all the grassroots social conservatives and small town voters that make up her base, Sarah Palin will probably need to win Iowa too should she run. Realistically, I cannot see more than one of those two surviving Iowa. The way the field looks right now, Iowa may be even more important than usual. TOSSUP DEMOCRAT

Governor – Terry Branstad (R)

Branstad served four terms from 1983-1999, and he returned to the Governor's Mansion by crushing unpopular Democratic incumbent Chet Culver 53%-43%. The new Governor has demonstrated lasting and broad appeal in the state, so he will be tough to oust in 2014. Still, this is not a good time to be a Governor. TOSSUP REPUBLICAN.

Senior Senator – Charles Grassley (R)

Grassley cruised yet again, defeating Roxanne Conlin 65%-33%. His only worry for the future would be a primary challenge. LIKELY REPUBLICAN.

Junior Senator – Tom Harkin (D)

Harkin is too liberal for Iowa and until 2008, he always had difficult reelection campaigns. But he has a very loyal base, won easily in 2008, and will be very tough to dislodge. If 2014 is a year like 2010, Harkin could have problems, but otherwise he can probably hold this seat without much sweat. LIKELY DEMOCRAT.

House 1 – Bruce Braley (D)

Before Braley won this seat in 2006, it had been held by a Republican for three decades. However, unlike most seats held by Republicans for 30 years, however, this Waterloo/Dubuque/Davenport/Northeast Iowa seat naturally leans Democratic. Thus, he was able to put up a very liberal voting record and still survive 49%-48% in 2010.

The district added five counties on the Minnesota border: Worth, Mitchell, Howard, Winneshek, and Allamakee. It also added five small counties in East Central Iowa (Marshall, Tama, Benton, Poweshiek, and Iowa) while taking away Clinton County in the north and Clinton and Scott Counties, including the city of Davenport. The most important edition is Linn County, which contains Cedar Rapids and happens to be the home of Second District Rep. Dave Loebsack.

The changes produce a similar district, but one in which a majority of the residents are not represented by Braley. It appears likely at this point that Loebsack will run in the Second District to the south, giving Braley the inside edge at keeping the First District. TOSSUP DEMOCRAT.

House 2 – Dave Loebsack (D)

This Cedar Rapids/Iowa City/Burlington seat is pretty Democratic, but in 2010 Loebsack won only 51%-46% over an opponent he beat 57%-39% two years earlier.

Loebsack's home in Cedar Rapids has been removed from the district along with Linn County. It has been replaced by Davenport. It also has taken a vast swath of rural southern Iowa virtually to Des Moines, and now takes in the entire southwest part of the state. The new counties are Clinton and Scott to the east, and Clarke, Decatur, Lucas, Monroe, Marion, Mahaska, Keokuk, and Jasper to the southwest. The end result reduces the Democratic strength here significantly, though the district still leans Democratic. Loebsack will have an edge assuming he runs in this district, but he will need to step up his game from 2010. TOSSUP DEMOCRAT.

House 3 – Leonard Boswell (D)

Boswell has perpetually found himself on target lists in this Des Moines based marginal seat, yet he managed to win every year. 2012 should be his toughest test. The new district takes Boswell's Des Moines home in Polk County and places in it a district entirely different from the current Third District. The current lines extend east from Des Moines, including Jasper, Marion, Lucas, Monroe, Mahaska, Keokuk, Poweshiek, Iowa, Tama, Benton, and Grundy Counties. The new district extends through some Republican rural territory all the way to Council Bluffs on the Nebraska border, including Guthrie, Dallas, Pottawattomie, Cass, Adair, Madison, Warren, Mills, Montgomery, Madison, Union, Fremont, Page, Taylor, and Ringgold Counties. This reduces the Obama percentage from 54% to 52%, maintaining the swing nature of the seat but making it slightly Republican as opposed to slightly Democratic.

Boswell's other problem is that Fourth District Rep. Tom Latham has decided to run against him rather than challenge Rep. Steve King in the more Republican Fourth District. The district gives Latham a slight edge on paper, but only 17% of the new voters are in Latham's current district. The majority of the district's population is in Des Moines, so Boswell represents 57% of the new voters. That said, Latham has generally outperformed Boswell. This should be a terrific contest, and one of the biggest coin flips in the nation. if i had to guess, howeve, I'd go with Latham. TOSSUP REPUBLICAN.

House 4 – Tom Latham (R)

Latham easily survived two big Democratic waves in this marginal North Iowa seat. This district will take on a totally new form for 2012, as it will essentially combine with much of the Fifth District to take up most of the northwest part of the state. It completely loses its tentacle into the northeast part of the state, consisting of Worth, Mitchell, Howard, Winneshek, and Allamakee, as well as the southern arm of Dallas, Madison, and Warren Counties, as well as Marshall County in the southeast. It adds Butler and Grundy Counties to the east, as well as the heavily Republican Counties in northwest Iowa: Lyon, Osceloa, Dickinson, Sioux, O'Brien, Clay, Plymouth, Cherokee, Buena Vista, Woodbury, Ida, Sac, Monona, Crawford, Carroll, Harrison, Shelby, and Audobon Counties. This makes the swing district lean Republican, though not nearly as much as the current Fifth District.

Latham opted to run against Leonard Boswell in the more marginal Third District, leaving this seat to Fifth District Rep. Steve King. The new margins make it more likely that King, one of the most conservative Members of Congress, will receive a general election challenge. Still, King should be fine barring any serious mistakes. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 5 – Steve King (R)

This seat was eliminated as Iowa lost a seat. King is running in a Republican leaning new Fourth District. SEAT ELIMINATED.