State of the Day - Kansas

Kansas joined the nation in a moment of violence, sparked by the ill-conceived Kansas-Nebraska Act of 1854. After the Civil War, an antislavery majority created a reliably Republican state, where Democrats only competed during agricultural busts. Kansas is less agricultural now, but it is still very Republican. Rural Western Kansas is dying out, but suburban Kansas City is growing rapidly and attracting immigrants. This has helped split the Republican Party and given Kansas a sort of three party politics, with fierce battles between moderate and conservative Republicans. Democrats have been able to win some races when conservatives win the Republican primary but cannot hold onto moderate Republicans in the general election. Democratic Governor (2003-2009) Kathleen Sebelius and Reps. Dennis Moore (1999-2011) and Nancy Boyda (2007-2009) won their offices in this manner, but Republicans have maintained a total lock on Presidential races and Senate seats.

In 2010, the Republican Party had internal competition, but did not leave the Democrats a similar opening. Sam Brownback won the Governor's Mansion in a walkover, and Republican Jerry Moran easily won Brownback's Senate seat despite a competitive primary. Republicans also kicked Democrats out of the House delegation by capturing the House seat of the retiring Moore. There is no reason to believe that Democrats will have any success here in 2012.

Republicans will control redistricting. Equal population standards will require a net shift of about 40,000 people from the Third to the First District. Expect Republicans to use this opportunity to shore up freshman Third District Rep. Kevin Yoder, who represents a swing district held by Democrats for the previous twelve years.


President – 6 Electoral Votes

While there are several states more Republican than Kansas, it has not even approached voting for a Democrat for President since 1964, and it would take quite the Democratic performance to make it close in 2012. The state has no Presidential primary. LIKELY REPUBLICAN

Governor – Sam Brownback (R)

A Senator for 14 years, Brownback essentially won the Governor's Mansion by default after Democratic Governor Mark Parkinson announced he would not seek election in his own right. After a 63%-32% win in this red state, it is hard to envision circumstances that would prevent Brownback from winning a second term. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

Senior Senator – Pat Roberts (R)

Democrats felt oddly pumped about their candidate in 2008, but all they had to show for it was a 60%-36% defeat. Democrats have not elected a Senator here since 1932, and there is no way they will do that by beating Roberts in 2014. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

Junior Senator – Jerry Moran (R)

The election for this open seat occurred in the primary, where Reps. Moran and Todd Tiahrt waged a nasty battle. Moran won by a margin of 50%-45%. He crushed Lisa Johnston 70%-26% in November. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 1 – Tim Huelskamp (R)

This Western Kansas seat is one of the safest in the nation for the GOP. It needs to pick up 46,000 people, and will probably absorb some more marginal territory to make the other districts more Republican. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 2 – Lynn Jenkins (R)

Democrats actually won this East Kansas seat in 2006 after conservative Republican Rep. Jim Ryun alienated enough moderate Republicans to lose the seat. The more moderate Jenkins defeated Ryun in the 2008 primary and restored order. Democrats could only come up with a token candidate in 2010. This district only needs to lose 2,000 people, but it should pick up some more marginal territory in an effort to make the Third District more Republican. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 3 – Kevin Yoder (R)

Democrats held this swing KC Area seat from 1999-2011. However, incumbent Dennis Moore retired in 2010. His wife ran to replace him, but the creation of a family dynasty was not going happen in the disastrous Democratic year of 2010. Yoder won 58%-39%. The seat needs to lose 48,000 people. Expect Republicans to shave off part of Lawrence to make the seat more Republican. LEAN REPUBLICAN.

House 4 – Mike Pompeo (R)

Pompeo, the new incumbent in this Wichita based seat, talked in the Republican primary of wanting to renew his hunting licenses so he could "bag a RINO". Not coincidentally, his 59%-36% general election win was a pretty significant underperformance for a Republican in this district, particularly in a year like 2010. This seat nees to pick up a mere 5,000 people for 2012. SAFE REPUBLICAN.