State of the Day - Kentucky

Kentucky is a very white state with a large rural and blue collar population that is suspicious of powerful government, much like it was when it entered the Union in 1792. While the tobacco industry is declining, Kentucky still lacks a "twenty-first century style economy" based heavily on tech and service industries. Growth here has been slow and a very high percentage of residents here are native born. Democrats have always been dominant here and still do well in state elections, but on the Presidential level, Kentucky has become reliably Republican. The GOP now holds both Senate seats, four of the six Congressional seats, and the state Senate.

The big story here in 2010 was the victory of the doctrinaire libertarian and Tea Partier Rand Paul as a Republican for the Senate. Still, considering the circumstances Democrats did okay. Democratic Rep. John Yarmuth easily held the seat he won from a Republican in 2006. The other Democratic Representative, Ben Chandler, survived an extremely unfriendly situation. Kentucky should be a rock solid state against Barack Obama in 2012, however.

Redistricting will be split in 2011. The smart money is on a plan that makes minor changes to meet the equal population standard, but does not noticeably shift the political situation.


President – 8 Electoral Votes

Kentucky (along with West Virginia, Tennessee, and Arkansas) has fallen totally out of reach for Democrats just a decade after twice voting for Bill Clinton. Kentucky’s May 22, 2012 primary is highly unlikely to play any role in determining the GOP nominee. If it did that would mean there was a two person race, and if that happened I would pick whichever candidate is not Mitt Romney. LIKELY REPUBLICAN.

Governor – Steve Beshear (D)

Beshear’s victory in 2007 had more to do with the ethical problems of his opponent, Governor Ernie Fletcher, than anything positive Beshear did. His approval ratings have been all over the place during his term, but have seemed to stabilize over 50%. Republicans had a three way primary, which was won by State Senate President David Williams with 48% of the vote.

Polling places Beshear in pretty good shape with over 50% of the vote with Williams stuck in the mid 30's. The only threat to Beshear that I see is his party label, but that should be muted in the "off-off" year election and Kentucky still elects many Democrats for state and local office. I don't see this one being much of a contest. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

Prediction: Gov. Beshear (D) 56%, Williams (R)

Senior Senator – Mitch McConnell (R)

Democrats targeted the Majority Leader in 2008, and while they held him down they could not beat him. Since it would be hard to see a more anti-Republican year than 2008, it’s hard to see how McConnell will go down in 2014. Still, McConnell is pretty polarizing so he should expect any big victories. LEAN REPUBLICAN.

Junior Senator – Rand Paul (R)

Paul's ideology has been covered well elsewhere. I'd like to point out a simple fact. Paul won 56%-44%. In Kentucky. In 2010. This is not a particularly impressive victory, and indicates some unease with Paul even though his opponent shot himself in the foot late the campaign with "Aqua Buddha". This being Kentucky, Paul can probably hold this seat. However, his victory is hardly a portent of anything certain. LIKELY REPUBLICAN.

House 1 – Ed Whitfield (R)

This has become a very safe Republican district, and Whitfield has had only token opposition. This Western Kentucky seat needs to pick up only about 15,000 people, which won't change anything. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 2 – Brett Guthrie (R)

Democrats ran hard here in 2008, but when a district rejects Democrats in an open seat in 2008, you know it is safe for the Republicans. This Central Kentucky seat needs to lose about 21,000 people. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 3 – John Yarmuth (D)

Democrats won this Louisville seat from Republican Anne Northup in 2006 and held it against her in 2008. Even though Northup had held it, it’s really quite marginal, going for John Kerry and giving Barack Obama 56%. Yarmuth won impressively in a terrible climate, 55%-44%. The seat needs to lose 15,000 people, but as redistricting is split I cannot see a situation in which Yarmuth does not have a serious advantage in 2012. LEAN DEMOCRAT.

House 4 – Geoff Davis (R)

This Northern Kentucky seat has become unreachable for Democrats. It needs to lose 12,000 people. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 5 – Harold Rogers (R)

Democrats have about as much chance of winning as Louisville basketball coach Rick Pitino does of winning Man of the Year from the Family Research Council. This rural Southeast Kentucky seat needs to pick up 25,000 people. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 6 – Ben Chandler (D)

This Lexington/Frankfort based seat is mostly Republican (55% for McCain). Chandler has predictably put up a conservative record, which makes him a difficult target. As it was, he probably would have lost in 2010 had they not nominated a weak candidate in the form of Andy Barr, aide to disgraced former Governor Ernie Fletcher. As it was, Chandler survived by 600 votes. The seat needs to lose 24,000 people and demographics dictate that will pretty much have to come from the rural southern part of the district, which will help the incumbent. Still, given the notable trend against ticket splitting this seat is an obvious target for Republicans if they can find a better candidate. TOSSUP REPUBLICAN.