State of the Day - Maine

Maine is historically a prototypical Yankee state but in recent years, it has shown a contrarian streak in politics with a preference for third party candidates. In the past twenty years, it has shifted from agriculture and small manufacturing to tourism and high tech. While the economy on the coast has been humming, the interior of the state has been in steep decline and on the whole Maine has the oldest population in the country. Maine leans a bit to the left of the center but is generally independent and unpredictable. It last voted Republican for President in 1988 and routinely elects Democratic House members, but it elected an independent as Governor twice in the 1990's, loves its two liberal Republican Senators, and the Legislature is very volatile. Locally, the primary issue involves potential development or environmental protection of the northern forests.

This past election was prototypical Mainer affair. Democrats held the two House seats, but Republicans managed to win the Governor's Mansion thanks in large part to a very strong third party candidate who nearly won the election. Maine may be contested in the 2012 election, especially since it splits its Electoral Votes by Congressional District. Republican Senator Olympia Snowe is probably invulnerable to a Democratic challenge, but may face a primary challenge from conservatives angry with her frequent footsie with Democrats.

Republicans technically control redistricting, but in reality they don't. There is a bipartisan redistricting board that redraws boundaries, but the Legislature can pass its own plan with a 2/3 majority. Republicans do not have such a majority, so the most likely scenario is a plan that merely shifts 9,000 people from the First to the Second District. It's not clear that the Republicans could do any better even if they tried.

Oddly, Maine does its redistricting in the second cycle after the Census. Thus, redistricting is not scheduled to occur in 2013, so the 2012 elections will take place under the current map. This is blatantly unconstitutional, but in the past nobody cared. However, a lawsuit was filed on this point in March which will probably result in redistricting taking place before the next election. For U.S. House purposes, it won't matter.


President – 4 Electoral Votes

Maine is a good Democratic state, but in a mirror image of 2008, a Republican would have about 50-50 odds of winning it. Maine awards two electoral votes to the statewide winner and one electoral vote to the winner in each Congressional district. The Second District is about five points more Republican than the first district, meaning that the Republican would likely win one electoral vote if he could get within about six points of the Democrat statewide.

Maine does not have a presidential primary. LIKELY DEMOCRAT.

Governor – Paul LePage (R)

LePage is too conservative for Maine and seemed to have some personal problems during the campaign, answering questions about alleged ethical and financial troubles. He sometimes reacted poorly to such questions. However, Democrat Elizabeth "Libby" Mitchell never got on track either. Independent Eliot Cutler, a former aide to Jimmy Carter, stepped into the breach and nearly won the election. LePage held on with 38%, 37% for Cutler and a pathetic 19% for Mitchell.

LePage began his term by appointing his 22 year old daughter to a position for which she seemed to have no qualifications. He then proceeded to pick a fight with labor unions over a mural in the Capitol and told the NAACP to "kiss his butt". It was then revealed that LePage has homestead exemptions in both Maine and Florida. He has begun to be heckled at town hall meetings. I suspected LePage would easily be a train wreck, and so far I'm right. LIKELY DEMOCRAT.

Senior Senator – Olympia Snowe (R)

Snowe may be the most popular figure in Maine and she does not look beatable in 2012. Her bigger problem would be a Republican primary. She has two announced Tea Party challengers, Scott D'Amboise and Andrew Dodge. Snowe should survive if the Tea Party vote splits between them. If the Tea Party managed to beat Snowe, they will essentially be gifting this seat to the Democrats. If Snowe survives, she'll win easily in November. LIKELY REPUBLICAN.

Junior Senator – Susan Collins (R)

Long thought vulnerable by Democrats, she stomped a strong Democratic challenger in a terrible Republican year in 2008. Unlike Snowe, however, she will probably face more strong competition. She could also expect a primary challenge from the right. TOSSUP REPUBLICAN.

House 1 – Chellie Pingree (D)

This Southern Maine seat is the more Democratic of the two, though it is not impossible for the GOP to win here. Since Pingree was a freshman in a bad Democratic year, she showed up on some GOP target lists. However, Republicans nominated firebrand Dean Scontras, who never had a chance. Pingree won 57%-43%. That should be a lesson for Republicans looking to take down Olympia Snowe. LIKELY DEMOCRAT.

House 2 – Michael Michaud (D)

This northern Maine seat should be a winnable seat for the GOP, but Michaud has won reelection easily. He had some competition after making some very unpopular high profile votes. Still, on the whole Michaud's socially conservative, pro-union voting record fits very well here. Republicans nominated extremist Jason Levesque, which didn't work out. Michaud won by an impressive 55%-45%. Again, anti-Snowe Republicans should take note of the result. Michaud will be difficult to beat. LEAN DEMOCRAT.