State of the Day - Maryland

Maryland is and has always been a little bit of both North and South. Politically, it has produced quite a few colorful characters. It has changed over the past century from a manufacturing and fishing state centered on Baltimore to a suburban state. Baltimore still dominates the state in many ways and is the driver behind the state's long Democratic tradition. Democrats are also helped by a 29% African-American population that votes overwhelmingly Democratic. The Washington suburbs in Montgomery and Prince George's County have become heavily Democratic as well. Maryland is now one of the most Democratic states and that does not look likely to change any time soon. The state's safe Democratic majority produces many influential Democrats such as Governor Martin O'Malley, Senator Barbara Mikulski, and House Minority Whip Steny Hoyer.

Republicans did have one success in 2010, as Andy Harris won the heavily Republican First District that he managed to lose to the Democrats in 2008. Aside from that, however, Maryland continued to be one of the bluest states. Republicans had hoped former Governor (2003-2007) Robert Ehrlich could mount a strong challenge for his old job, but he fizzled and lost a second straight rout to O'Malley. The GOP never threatened Mikulski.

Democrats will control redistricting. The current districts are already a partisan gerrymander, with bizarre boundaries designed to pack the maximum number of Republicans into safe GOP districts (one of which the Democrats managed to win anyway in 2008). That's probably the best Democrats could do, so expect them to pursue the status quo. Population has grown faster in the Republican areas than the rest of the state, so the Second and Third Districts may become a bit more Republican, but not enough to seriously threaten the current incumbents.


President – 10 Electoral Votes

Maryland has not come close to going Republican since George H.W. Bush won it a generation ago. Only in a Republican landslide will the final result here look even somewhat respectable.

The primary here will be February 14, 2012, the week after Super Tuesday. This could make it an important state if there is still a race. Theoretically, Mitt Romney should do well here although there is certainly an opening for a more socially conservative candidate. An underfunded Mike Huckabee won 29% here in 2008 even though it was obvious by that point John McCain would be the nominee. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

Governor – Martin O’Malley (D)

Entering 2010 O'Malley had middling approval ratings and Republicans were psyched about a comeback attempt by former Governor Robert Ehrlich, whom O'Malley had defeated in 2006. Ehrlich's campaign faded before it even began, however, and O'Malley won a resounding 56%-42% victory. Term limits will end his tenure in 2014. LIKELY DEMOCRAT.

Senior Senator – Barbara Mikulski (D)

Mikulski stomped token Republican Eric Wargotz in 2016. She has this seat as long as she wants it. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

Junior Senator – Ben Cardin (D)

Cardin needed a good Democratic wind to defeat Michael Steele (remember when he was hot?) for this seat in 2006. Steele is considering a rematch. However, there is no reason to believe that Steele (whose credibility is totally shot by now), or anybody else, could mount a serious challenge in 2012. LEAN DEMOCRAT.

House 1 – Andy Harris (R)

The Eastern Shore seat in Maryland should never vote for a Democrat, but it did in 2008. The very conservative Harris challenged and defeated moderate Republican Rep. Wayne Gilchrest in the primary. Gilchrest endorsed Democrat Frank Kratovil, who capitalized on the Republican fissures and the Demcoratic wave to defeat Harris 49%-48%. Harris returned in the very Republican 2010 and Kratovil had no chance, losing 55%-41%. Harris should prove hard to oust. The district needs to lose 14,000 people, which will only make it more Republican. LIKELY REPUBLICAN.

House 2 – Dutch Ruppersberger (D)

The Baltimore area district isn’t totally Democratic, but Ruppersberger appears safe. The seat needs to pick up 15,000 people, which will probably be Republicans from the first district, but it should not matter to Ruppersberger. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

House 3 – John Sarbanes (D)

This Baltimore seat leans Democratic. Sarbanes has one of the most recognizable names in Maryland politics and does not look beatable. The district needs to pick up only 1,000 people, so it should remain basically unchanged. LIKELY DEMOCRAT.

House 4 – Donna Edwards (D)

This black majority Prince George's/Montgomery seat won't be voting Republican anytime soon. It needs to pick up 21,000 people. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

House 5 – Steny Hoyer (D)

Hoyer may never get past Nancy Pelosi in the House, but he won't lose this safely Democratic Southern Maryland seat. It actually needs to lose 43,000 people. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

House 6 – Roscoe Bartlett (R)

Bartlett never bothers to fundraise much, but it does not matter in this heavily Republican Western Maryland district. The seat needs to lose 23,000 people. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 7 – Elijah Cummings (D)

This Baltimore seat needs 39,000 people. If every single one of them voted Republican it still would not matter. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

House 8 – Chris Van Hollen (D)

Van Hollen just finished two cycles as chair of the DCCC. In 2008, he was a genius. In 2010, he was an idiot. Or, maybe election results have little to do with the DCCC chair. Van Hollen rebounded nicely, and is currently the Ranking Member of the Budget Committee. He will have no problem holding this overwhelmingly Democratic Montgomery County seat. This district should remain essentially unchanged, only needing to pick up about 4,000 people. SAFE DEMOCRAT.