State of the Race - 5/21/11

President Obama expands his lead this week based on a continued post-Osama bounce. We also see yet another a potential Republican contender opting not to run for President, a Democratic Governor getting a huge boost, and Democrats taking advantage of Republican divisions to win a Republican leaning New York House seat.

Off to the races!


President

Here is our weekly look at the field for the Republican nomination. Mitch Daniels goes away after announcing he isn't running. This increases the pressure on New Jersey Governor Chris Christie to run. Rudy Giuliani and Texas Governor Rick Perry make appearances on the longshot list after floating some trial balloons about running.

The Contenders

1. Mitt Romney of Massachusetts
2. Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota
3. Jon Huntsman of Utah

Dark Horses

4. Sarah Palin of Alaska
5. Representative Michele Bachmann of Minnesota
6. Herman Cain of Georgia
7. Governor Chris Christie of New Jersey
8. Newt Gingrich of Georgia
9. Representative Ron Paul of Texas
10. Governor Rick Perry of Texas
11. Rudy Giuliani of New York
12. Representative Paul Ryan of Wisconsin

President Obama ups his approval rating up a tick to 53%. These results continue to show a race to close to call, but with President Obama's re-election the most likely outcome with a 332-206 Electoral College victory. Potential outcomes range from a President Obama victory with 379 Electoral Votes to a Mitt Romney victory with 275 Electoral Votes. The most likely outcome shows a virtual repeat of 2008, except that Indiana and North Carolina are projected to go Republican. The closest state in the current projection is Missouri.

Safe Obama (149)
California
Connecticut
Delaware
DC
Hawaii
Illinois
Maryland
Massachusetts
New York
Rhode Island
Vermont

Likely Obama (53)
Maine
Michigan
New Jersey
Oregon
Washington

Lean Obama (61)
Iowa
Minnesota
Nevada
New Hampshire
New Mexico
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin

Toss Up Obama (69)
Colorado
Florida
Ohio
Virginia

Toss Up Romney (47)
Arizona
Indiana
Missouri
North Carolina

Lean Romney (53)
Arkansas
Georgia
Montana
South Carolina
South Dakota
Tennessee
West Virginia

Likely Romney (69)
Kansas
Kentucky
Louisiana
Mississippi
North Dakota
Texas

Safe Romney (37)
Alabama
Alaska
Idaho
Nebraska
Oklahoma
Utah
Wyoming

Popular Vote: Pres. Obama 52.4%, Romney 47.6%
Electoral Vote: Pres. Obama 332, Romney 206

Governors

West Virginia Governor Earl Ray Tomblin survived several primary challengers, and got a boost when Republicans nominated Bill Maloney, who was not their strongest option. Tomlin is putting up solid approval ratings and has huge leads over Maloney. This is looking like a no contest for the October special election, and Tomblin moves to Safe Democrat.

Kentucky Governor Steven Beshear has been all over the place, but is now polling over 50% with double digit leads over the relatively weak Republican David Williams. This also looks like a no contest.

Fourteen gubernatorial contests will take place over the next two years. Kentucky, Louisiana, and Mississippi will hold contests in 2011. The states listed below will hold elections in 2012. New Hampshire and Vermont have two year terms for its Governor, so the Granite and Green Mountain States will have a 2012 contest despite just conducting an election. The West Virginia Supreme Court declared that there must be a special election in October to fill the final year of the unexpired term of Joe Manchin. A regularly scheduled election will follow in 2012. We will list the special election until its completion, at which time it will be replaced by the regular election.

Republicans are assured at least a split of Governor's Mansions after 2012, as they lead 25-11 in races not coming up for election in the next two years. Right now we predict the Republicans to gain between a range of two and three Govenrnor's Mansions, with the most likely outcome being two.

Safe Democrat (3)
Delaware (Jack Markell)
Kentucky (Steve Beshear)
West Virginia special (Earl Ray Tomblin)

Likely Democrat (0)

Lean Democrat (2)
Missouri (Jay Nixon)
Vermont (Peter Shumlin)

Toss Up Democrat (1)
New Hampshire (John Lynch)

Toss Up Republican (0)

Lean Republican (3)
Indiana (Mitch Daniels retiring)
North Carolina (Bev Perdue)
Washington (Christine Gregoire)

Likely Republican (1)
Montana (Brian Schweitzer retiring)

Safe Republican (3)
Louisiana (Bobby Jindal)
Mississippi (Haley Barbour retiring)
North Dakota (Jack Dalrymple)
Utah (Gary Herbert)

Republicans: 33
Democrats: 17

Senate

Wisconsin Senator Herb Kohl announced his retirement this week. Kohl had limitless pockets and was well liked, so he was likely to get a pass. His departure turns the race into a tossup, which is just one more headache for the Democrats.

Democrats will be defending the seats they won in the big Democratic year of 2006, so they start on the defensive. Republicans lead the seats not up for election 37-30. We project a gain of three Republican seats, which would split the Senate in half with control being decided by the new Vice President. We see a range of anywhere from a push to an eight seat Republican pickup. Note this is basically in a neutral climate, so the advantage shown is a Republican structural advantage based on the cycle of seats up for election. There are quite a few Democratic seats that could be very difficult for them if they continue to struggle with public opinion, and that shows up in the large number of seats in the "Lean Democrat" columnn. In other words, if the climate is as toxic as it was in 2010 the Republicans would probably win all of those "Lean Democratic" seats and pick up double digit seats.

Safe Democrat (4)
Delaware (Tom Carper)
Hawaii (Daniel Akaka retiring)
New York (Kirsten Gillibrand)
Vermont (Bernie Sanders)

Likely Democrat (4)
California (Dianne Feinstein)
Connecticut (Joe Lieberman retiring)
Maryland (Ben Cardin)
Rhode Island (Sheldon Whitehouse)

Lean Democrat (7)
Florida (Bill Nelson)
Massachusetts (Scott Brown)
Michigan (Debbie Stabenow)
Minnesota (Amy Klobuchar)
New Jersey (Robert Menendez)
Pennsylvania (Robert Casey, Jr.)
Washington (Maria Cantwell)

Toss Up Democrat (5)
Nebraska (Ben Nelson)
Nevada (Dean Heller)
New Mexico (Jeff Bingaman retiring)
Ohio (Sherrod Brown)
Wisconsin (Herb Kohl retiring)

Toss Up Republican (3)
Missouri (Claire McCaskill)
Virginia (Jim Webb retiring)
West Virginia (Joe Manchin)

Lean Republican (4)
Arizona (Jon Kyl retiring)
Mississippi (Roger Wicker)
Montana (Jon Tester)
Tennessee (Bob Corker)

Likely Republican (1)
Maine (Olympia Snowe)

Safe Republican (5)
Indiana (Richard Lugar)
North Dakota (Kent Conrad retiring)
Texas (Kay Bailey Hutchison retiring)
Utah (Orrin Hatch)
Wyoming (John Barrasso)

Democrats: 50
Republicans: 50

House

Democrats won the special election last night for NY-26, thanks mostly to a divided GOP. Assuming the GOP gets its act together, the seat still leans Republican for November but redistricting could make a huge difference there.

Rep. Mazie Hirono announced she will vacate the HI-2 seat to run for the Senate seat being vacated by Daniel Akaka. The seat is and will remain safely Democratic. Two Republicans also announced Senate Runs, Todd Akin in Missouri and Rick Berg in North Dakota. Akin's MO-2 is probably safe, but I move the seat to likely Republican as a precaution. Berg is not the strongest incumbent, so his retirement actually moves the seat from Likely to Safe Republican.

This week's ratings include definite new maps for Indiana and Iowa, joining Arkansas on the list of definite maps including in the factoring. The rest of the states are projections of the most likely redistricting outcomes. Louisiana and Missouri have also completed maps, but I have not had a chance to review them.

This results in a few changes. Leonard Boswell's IA-3 moves from Tossup Democrat to Tossup Republican after he lost a couple of points of Democratic strength from his district and will receive a challenge from current Fourth District Rep. Tom Latham. (Latham is listed as retiring from IA-4 as Fifth District Rep. Steve King will run in the new IA-4 instead). IN-2, being vacated by Joe Donnelly, was made much more Republican and shifts to Lean Republican.

Here's how I handle redistricting. To simplify things, I am going to refer to districts by number as if they were constant. This will lead to reported "pickups" for parties that are just district renumberings, but I think doing it this way will help keep things straight. For example, New Jersey is on track to lose a seat. We will "eliminate" the highest numbered district in the state, NJ-13 held by Albio Sires. However, Sires will almost certainly have a district he can win, it will just have a different number. For argument's sake, let's say that Leonard Lance, a Republican currently representing the Seventh District, is effectively drawn out when his district is eliminated and parceled out among other districts, and Sires's district is renamed the Seventh. We will say that Sires's seat was eliminated but that the Democrats picked up the Seventh District. This will even out after we factor for all the states.

Under this format, the following districts will be eliminated.

IL-19 (John Shimkus)
IA-5 (Steve King)
LA-7 (Charles Boustany)
MA-10 (Bill Keating)
MI-15 (John Dingell)
MO-9 (Blaine Leutkemeyer)
NJ-13 (Albio Sires)
NY-28 (Louise Slaughter)
NY-29 (Tom Reed)
OH-17 (Tim Ryan)
OH-18 (Bob Gibbs)
PA-19 (Todd Platts)

That is seven Republicans and four Democrats. Expect most of these members to show up in other districts come 2013. For instance, King will run in IA-4 as the current incumbent there, Tom Latham, runs against Leonard Boswell in IA-3. These seats will be replaced by eleven new seats in other states. Those will be listed in italics. To help keep this all straight, we are going to break with tradition and list every seat, even in safe districts.

This gives the Republicans a six seat pickup as a base scenario, primarily due to redistricting. We envision a range, depending on the climate, of anywhere between a 38 seat Democratic pickup and a 42 seat Republican pickup. There are about 70 seats that form the potential battlefield for the 2012 elections.

Safe Democrat (101)
AL-7 (Terri Sewell)
AZ-4 (Ed Pastor)
CA-1 (Mike Thompson)
CA-5 (Doris Matsui)
CA-6 (Lynn Woolsey)
CA-7 (George Miller)
CA-8 (Nancy Pelosi)
CA-9 (Barbara Lee)
CA-10 (John Garamendi)
CA-12 (Jackie Speier)
CA-13 (Pete Stark)
CA-14 (Anna Eshoo)
CA-15 (Mike Honda)
CA-16 (Zoe Lofgren)
CA-17 (Sam Farr)
CA-27 (Brad Sherman)
CA-28 (Howard Berman)
CA-29 (Adam Schiff)
CA-30 (Henry Waxman)
CA-31 (Xavier Becerra)
CA-32 (Judy Chu)
CA-33 (Karen Bass)
CA-34 (Lucille Roybal-Allard)
CA-35 (Maxine Waters)
CA-36 special (VACANT)
CA-37 (Laura Richardson)
CA-38 (Grace Napolitano)
CA-39 (Linda Sanchez)
CA-43 (Joe Baca)
CA-53 (Susan Davis)
CO-1 (Diana DeGette)
CT-1 (John Larson)
CT-3 (Rosa DeLauro)
FL-3 (Corrine Brown)
FL-11 (Kathy Castor)
FL-17 (Frederica Wilson)
FL-19 (Ted Deutch)
FL-20 (Debbie Wasserman Schultz)
FL-23 (Alcee Hastings)
GA-4 (Hank Johnson)
GA-5 (John Lewis)
GA-13 (David Scott)
HI-2 (Mazie Hirono retiring)
IL-1 (Bobby Rush)
IL-2 (Jesse Jackson, Jr.)
IL-3 (Dan Lipinski)
IL-4 (Luis Gutierrez)
IL-5 (Mike Quigley)
IL-7 (Danny Davis)
IL-9 (Jan Schakowsky)
LA-2 (Cedric Richmond)
MD-2 (Dutch Ruppersberger)
MD-4 (Donna Edwards)
MD-5 (Steny Hoyer)
MD-7 (Elijah Cummings)
MD-8 (Chris Van Hollen)
MA-1 (John Olver)
MA-7 (Edward Markey)
MA-8 (Michael Capuano)
MA-9 (Stephen Lynch)
MI-12 (Sander Levin)
MI-13 (Hansen Clarke)
MI-14 (John Conyers)
MN-5 (Keith Ellison)
MS-2 (Bennie Thompson)
MO-1 (William Lacy Clay)
NV-1 (Shelley Berkley retiring)
NJ-1 (Robert Andrews)
NJ-8 (Bill Pascrell)
NJ-9 (Steven Rothman)
NJ-10 (Donald Payne)
NY-5 (Gary Ackerman)
NY-6 (Gregory Meeks)
NY-7 (Joseph Crowley)
NY-8 (Jerrold Nadler)
NY-10 (Edolphus Towns)
NY-11 (Yvette Clark)
NY-12 (Nydia Velazquez)
NY-14 (Carolyn Maloney)
NY-15 (Charles Rangel)
NY-16 (Jose Serrano)
NY-17 (Eliot Engel)
NY-18 (Nita Lowey)
NC-12 (Melvin Watt)
OH-11 (Marcia Fudge)
OR-3 (Earl Blumenauer)
PA-1 (Robert Brady)
PA-2 (Chaka Fattah)
SC-6 (James Clyburn)
TN-9 (Steve Cohen)
TX-9 (Al Green)
TX-18 (Sheila Jackson Lee)
TX-20 (Charles Gonzalez)
TX-29 (Gene Green)
TX-30 (Eddie Bernice Johnson)
VT-AL (Peter Welch)
VA-3 (Bobby Scott)
VA-8 (Jim Moran)
WA-7 (Jim McDermott)
WI-2 (Tammy Baldwin)
WI-4 (Gwen Moore)

Likely Democrat (28)
CA-18 (Dennis Cardoza)
CA-23 (Lois Capps)
CA-51 (Bob Filner)
CO-2 (Jared Polis)
CT-2 (Joe Courtney)
DE-AL (John Carney)
HI-1 (Colleeen Hanabusa)
IL-12 (Jerry Costello)
IN-1 (Peter Visclosky)
IN-7 (Andre Carson)
ME-1 (Chellie Pingree)
MD-3 (John Sarbanes)
MA-2 (Richard Neal)
MA-3 (Jim McGovern)
MA-6 (John Tierney)
MN-4 (Betty McCollum)
NM-3 (Ben Ray Lujan)
NY-9 (Anthony Weiner)
NY-21 (Paul Tonko)
NY-27 (Brian Higgins)
NC-1 (G.K. Butterfield)
NC-4 (David Price)
OH-9 (Marcy Kaptur)
RI-1 (David Cicilline)
RI-2 (Jim Langevin)
TX-16 (Silvestre Reyes)
WA-1 (Jay Inslee)
WA-6 (Norm Dicks)

Lean Democrat (22)
AR-4 (Mike Ross)
GA-12 (John Barrow)
KY-3 (John Yarmuth)
ME-2 (Michael Michaud)
MA-4 (Barney Frank)
MA-5 (Niki Tsongas)
MN-7 (Collin Peterson)
MO-5 (Emanuel Cleaver)
NJ-6 (Dave Pallone)
NM-1 (Martin Heinrich retiring)
NY-2 (Steve Israel)
NY-4 (Carolyn McCarthy)
NC-13 (Brad Miller)
OH-13 (Betty Sutton)
OR-1 (David Wu)
PA-13 (Allyson Schwartz)
PA-14 (Mike Doyle)
PA-17 (Tim Holden)
TN-5 (Jim Cooper)
TX-15 (Ruben Hinojosa)
TX-28 (Henry Cuellar)
WA-9 (Adam Smith)
WV-3 (Nick Rahall)

Toss Up Democrat (36)
AZ-7 (Raul Grijalva)
CA-20 (Jim Costa)
CA-47 (Loretta Sanchez)
CO-7 (Ed Perlmutter)
CT-4 (Jim Himes)
CT-5 (Chris Murphy retiring)
GA-2 (Sanford Bishop)
IL-10 (Robert Dold)
IA-1 (Bruce Braley)
IA-2 (Dave Loebsack)
MI-5 (Dale Kildee)
MI-9 (Gary Peters)
MN-1 (Tim Walz)
MO-3 (Russ Carnahan)
MN-8 (Chip Cravaack)
NV-3 (Joe Heck)
NV-4 (NEW)
NH-2 (Charlie Bass)
NJ-12 (Rush Holt)
NY-1 (Tim Bishop)
NY-22 (Maurice Hinchey)
NY-25 (Ann Marie Buerkle)
NC-7 (Mike McIntyre)
NC-8 (Larry Kissell)
NC-11 (Heath Shuler)
OH-10 (Dennis Kucinich)
OK-2 (Dan Boren)
OR-4 (Peter DeFazio)
OR-5 (Kurt Schrader)
PA-12 (Mark Critz)
TX-25 (Lloyd Doggett)
VA-11 (Gerald Connolly)
WA-2 (Rick Larsen)
WA-10 (NEW)
WI-3 (Ron Kind)
WI-7 (Sean Duffy)

Toss Up Republican (44)
AZ-1 (Paul Gosar)
AZ-5 (David Schweikert)
AZ-8 (Gabrielle Gifffords)
CA-3 (Dan Lungren)
CA-11 (Jerry McNerney)
CA-26 (David Dreier)
CA-45 (Mary Bono Mack)
CO-3 (Scott Tipton)
FL-12 (Dennis Ross)
FL-22 (Allen West)
FL-25 (David Rivera)
IL-8 (Joe Walsh)
IL-14 (Randy Hultgren)
IL-17 (Bobby Schilling)
IA-3 (Leonard Boswell)
KY-6 (Ben Chandler)
MI-1 (Dan Benishek)
MI-7 (Tim Walberg)
MN-6 (Michele Bachmann)
NH-1 (Frank Guinta)
NJ-3 (Jon Runyan)
NY-13 (Mike Grimm)
NY-19 (Nan Hayworth)
NY-20 (Christopher Gibson)
NY-23 (Bill Owens)
NY-24 (Richard Hanna)
NC-2 (Renee Ellmers)
OH-1 (Steve Chabot)
OH-6 (Bill Johnson)
OH-15 (Steve Stivers)
OH-16 (Jim Renacci)
PA-4 (Jason Altmire)
PA-7 (Patrick Meehan)
PA-8 (Michael Fitzpatrick)
PA-11 (Lou Barletta)
PA-15 (Charlie Dent)
SD-AL (Kristi Noem)
TX-23 (Quico Canseco)
TX-27 (Blake Farenthold)
UT-2 (Jim Matheson)
VA-5 (Robert Hurt)
WA-3 (Jaime Herrera)
WA-8 (Dave Reichert)
WI-8 (Reid Ribble)

Lean Republican (25)
AZ-3 (Ben Quayle)
AR-1 (Rick Crawford)
AR-2 (Tim Griffin)
CA-44 (Ken Calvert)
CA-50 (Brian Bilbray)
CO-4 (Cory Gardner)
FL-2 (Steve Southerland)
FL-8 (Daniel Webster)
GA-8 (Austin Scott)
IL-11 (Adam Kinzinger)
IN-2 (Joe Donnelly retiring)
IN-9 (Todd Young)
KS-3 (Kevin Yoder)
MN-3 (Erik Paulsen)
NM-2 (Steve Pearce)
NY-26 (Kathy Hochul)
NV-2 special (VACANT)
PA-3 (Mike Kelly)
PA-6 (Jim Gerlach)
PA-10 (Thomas Marino)
SC-2 (Joe Wilson)
SC-5 (Mick Mulvaney)
VA-2 (Scott Rigell)
VA-9 (Morgan Griffith)
WV-1 (David McKinley)

Likely Republican (20)
AL-2 (Martha Roby)
AL-3 (Mike Rogers)
CA-2 (Wally Herger)
CA-24 (Elton Gallegly)
CA-48 (John Campbell)
FL-24 (Sandy Adams)
FL-26 (NEW)
ID-1 (Raul Labrador)
IN-8 (Larry Bucshon)
MD-1 (Andy Harris)
MI-3 (Justin Amash)
MI-11 (Thaddeus McCotter)
MS-1 (Alan Nunnelee)
MO-2 (Todd Akin retiring)
MO-4 (Vicky Hartzler)
MT-AL (Denny Rehberg retiring)
NJ-7 (Leonard Lance)
OH-12 (Pat Tiberi)
TN-8 (Stephen Fincher)
VA-7 (Eric Cantor)

Safe Republican (158)
AL-1 (Jo Bonner)
AL-4 (Robert Aderholt)
AL-5 (Mo Brooks)
AL-6 (Spencer Bachus)
AK-AL (Don Young)
AZ-2 (Trent Franks)
AZ-6 (Jeff Flake retiring)
AZ-9 (NEW)
AR-3 (Steve Womack)
CA-4 (Tom McClintock)
CA-19 (Jeff Denham)
CA-21 (Devin Nunes)
CA-22 (Kevin McCarthy)
CA-25 (Buck McKeon)
CA-40 (Ed Royce)
CA-41 (Jerry Lewis)
CA-42 (Gary Miller)
CA-46 (Dana Rohrabacher)
CA-49 (Darrell Issa)
CA-52 (Duncan D. Hunter)
CO-5 (Doug Lamborn)
CO-6 (Mike Coffman)
FL-1 (Jeff Miller)
FL-4 (Ander Crenshaw)
FL-5 (Richard Nugent)
FL-6 (Cliff Stearns)
FL-7 (John Mica)
FL-9 (Gus Bilirakis)
FL-10 (Bill Young)
FL-13 (Vern Buchanan)
FL-14 (Connie Mack)
FL-15 (Bill Posey)
FL-16 (Tom Rooney)
FL-18 (Ileana Ros-Lehtinen)
FL-21 (Mario Diaz-Balart)
FL-27 (NEW)
GA-1 (Jack Kingston)
GA-3 (Lynn Westmoreland)
GA-6 (Tom Price)
GA-7 (Rob Woodall)
GA-9 (Tom Graves)
GA-10 (Paul Broun)
GA-11 (Phil Gingrey)
GA-14 (NEW)
ID-2 (Mike Simpson)
IL-6 (Peter Roskam)
IL-13 (Judy Biggert)
IL-15 (Tim Johnson)
IL-16 (Don Manzullo)
IL-18 (Aaron Schock)
IN-3 (Marlin Stutzman)
IN-4 (Todd Rokita)
IN-5 (Dan Burton)
IN-6 (Mike Pence retiring)
IA-4 (Tom Latham retiring)
KS-1 (Tim Huelskamp)
KS-2 (Lynn Jenkins)
KS-4 (Mike Pompeo)
KY-1 (Ed Whitfield)
KY-2 (Brett Guthrie)
KY-4 (Geoff Davis)
KY-5 (Harold Rogers)
LA-1 (Steve Scalise)
LA-3 (Jeff Landry)
LA-4 (John Fleming)
LA-5 (Rodney Alexander)
LA-6 (Bill Cassidy)
MD-6 (Roscoe Bartlett)
MI-2 (Bill Huizenga)
MI-4 (Dave Camp)
MI-6 (Fred Upton)
MI-8 (Mike Rogers)
MI-10 (Candice Miller)
MN-2 (John Kline)
MS-3 (Gregg Harper)
MS-4 (Steven Palazzo)
MO-6 (Sam Graves)
MO-7 (Billy Long)
MO-8 (Jo Ann Emerson)
NE-1 (Jeff Fortenberry)
NE-2 (Lee Terry)
NE-3 (Adrian Smith)
NJ-2 (Frank LoBiondo)
NJ-4 (Chris Smith)
NJ-5 (Scott Garrett)
NJ-11 (Rodney Frelinghuysen)
NY-3 (Peter King)
NC-3 (Walter Jones)
NC-5 (Virginia Foxx)
NC-6 (Howard Coble)
NC-9 (Sue Myrick)
NC-10 (Patrick McHenry)
ND-AL (Rick Berg retiring)
OH-2 (Jean Schmidt)
OH-3 (Mike Turner)
OH-4 (Jim Jordan)
OH-5 (Bob Latta)
OH-7 (Steve Austria)
OH-8 (John Boehner)
OH-14 (Steven LaTourette)
OK-1 (John Sullivan)
OK-3 (Frank Lucas)
OK-4 (Tom Cole)
OK-5 (James Lankford)
OR-2 (Greg Walden)
PA-5 (Glenn Thompson)
PA-9 (Bill Shuster)
PA-16 (Joe Pitts)
PA-18 (Tim Murphy)
SC-1 (Tim Scott)
SC-3 (Jeff Duncan)
SC-4 (Trey Gowdy)
SC-7 (NEW)
TN-1 (Phil Roe)
TN-2 (John Duncan)
TN-3 (Chuck Fleischmann)
TN-4 (Scott DesJarlais)
TN-6 (Diane Black)
TN-7 (Marsha Blackburn)
TX-1 (Louie Gohmert)
TX-2 (Ted Poe)
TX-3 (Sam Johnson)
TX-4 (Ralph Hall)
TX-5 (Jeb Hensarling)
TX-6 (Joe Barton)
TX-7 (John Culberson)
TX-8 (Kevin Brady)
TX-10 (Michael McCaul)
TX-11 (Mike Conaway)
TX-12 (Kay Granger)
TX-13 (Mac Thornberry)
TX-14 (Ron Paul)
TX-17 (Bill Flores)
TX-19 (Randy Neugebauer)
TX-21 (Lamar Smith)
TX-22 (Pete Olson)
TX-24 (Kenny Marchant)
TX-26 (Michael Burgess)
TX-31 (John Carter)
TX-32 (Pete Sessions)
TX-33 (NEW)
TX-34 (NEW)
TX-35 (NEW)
TX-36 (NEW)
UT-1 (Rob Bishop)
UT-3 (Jason Chaffetz)
UT-4 (NEW)
VA-1 (Rob Wittman)
VA-4 (Randy Forbes)
VA-6 (Bob Goodlatte)
VA-10 (Frank Wolf)
WA-4 (Doc Hastings)
WA-5 (Cathy McMorris Rodgers)
WV-2 (Shelley Moore Capito)
WI-1 (Paul Ryan)
WI-5 (Jim Sensenbrenner)
WI-6 (Tom Petri)
WY-AL (Cynthia Lummis)

Republicans: 247
Democrats: 190