State of the Race - 5/28/11

President Obama loses a point of his post-Osama bounce. We also see another state agree on a map for the 2012 House races

Off to the races!


President

Here is our weekly look at the field for the Republican nomination. Rick Perry is the big mover this week as he expressed his first direct potential in the race. I still think he will not run, however.

The Contenders

1. Mitt Romney of Massachusetts
2. Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota
3. Jon Huntsman of Utah

Dark Horses

4. Sarah Palin of Alaska
5. Representative Michele Bachmann of Minnesota
6. Governor Rick Perry of Texas
7. Herman Cain of Georgia
8. Governor Chris Christie of New Jersey
9. Newt Gingrich of Georgia
10. Rudy Giuliani of New York
11. Representative Ron Paul of Texas
12. Representative Paul Ryan of Wisconsin

President Obama sees his approval rating fall back to 52%. These results continue to show a race to close to call, but with President Obama's re-election the most likely outcome with a 332-206 Electoral College victory. Potential outcomes range from a President Obama victory with 357 Electoral Votes to a Mitt Romney victory with 287 Electoral Votes. The most likely outcome shows a virtual repeat of 2008, except that Indiana and North Carolina are project to go Republican. The closest states are the current projection is Florida and Virginia.

Safe Obama (84)
DC
Hawaii
Illinois
Maryland
Massachusetts
New York
Rhode Island
Vermont

Likely Obama (81)
California
Connecticut
Delaware
Maine
Washington

Lean Obama (86)
Michigan
Minnesota
New Hampshire
New Jersey
New Mexico
Oregon
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin

Toss Up Obama (81)
Colorado
Florida
Iowa
Nevada
Ohio
Virginia

Toss Up Romney (25)
Missouri
North Carolina

Lean Romney (55)
Arizona
Georgia
Indiana
Montana
South Carolina
West Virginia

Likely Romney (83)
Arkansas
Kentucky
Louisiana
Mississippi
North Dakota
South Dakota
Tennessee
Texas

Safe Romney (43)
Alabama
Alaska
Idaho
Kansas
Nebraska
Oklahoma
Utah
Wyoming

Popular Vote: Pres. Obama 51.4%, Romney 48.6%
Electoral Vote: Pres. Obama 332, Romney 206

Governors

No changes this week.

Fourteen gubernatorial contests will take place over the next two years. Kentucky, Louisiana, and Mississippi will hold contests in 2011. The states listed below will hold elections in 2012. New Hampshire and Vermont have two year terms for its Governor, so the Granite and Green Mountain States will have a 2012 contest despite just conducting an election. The West Virginia Supreme Court declared that there must be a special election in October to fill the final year of the unexpired term of Joe Manchin. A regularly scheduled election will follow in 2012. We will list the special election until its completion, at which time it will be replaced by the regular election.

Republicans are assured at least a split of Governor's Mansions after 2012, as they lead 25-11 in races not coming up for election in the next two years. Right now we predict the Republicans to gain between a range of two and three Govenrnor's Mansions, with the most likely outcome being two.

Safe Democrat (3)
Delaware (Jack Markell)
Kentucky (Steve Beshear)
West Virginia special (Earl Ray Tomblin)

Likely Democrat (0)

Lean Democrat (2)
Missouri (Jay Nixon)
Vermont (Peter Shumlin)

Toss Up Democrat (1)
New Hampshire (John Lynch)

Toss Up Republican (0)

Lean Republican (3)
Indiana (Mitch Daniels retiring)
North Carolina (Bev Perdue)
Washington (Christine Gregoire)

Likely Republican (1)
Montana (Brian Schweitzer retiring)

Safe Republican (3)
Louisiana (Bobby Jindal)
Mississippi (Haley Barbour retiring)
North Dakota (Jack Dalrymple)
Utah (Gary Herbert)

Republicans: 33
Democrats: 17

Senate

No changes this week.

Democrats will be defending the seats they won in the big Democratic year of 2006, so they start on the defensive. Republicans lead the seats not up for election 37-30. We project a gain of three Republican seats, which would split the Senate in half with control being decided by the new Vice President. We see a range of anywhere from a push to an eight seat Republican pickup. Note this is basically in a neutral climate, so the advantage shown is a Republican structural advantage based on the cycle of seats up for election. There are quite a few Democratic seats that could be very difficult for them if they continue to struggle with public opinion, and that shows up in the large number of seats in the "Lean Democrat" columnn. In other words, if the climate is as toxic as it was in 2010 the Republicans would probably win all of those "Lean Democratic" seats and pick up double digit seats.

Safe Democrat (4)
Delaware (Tom Carper)
Hawaii (Daniel Akaka retiring)
New York (Kirsten Gillibrand)
Vermont (Bernie Sanders)

Likely Democrat (4)
California (Dianne Feinstein)
Connecticut (Joe Lieberman retiring)
Maryland (Ben Cardin)
Rhode Island (Sheldon Whitehouse)

Lean Democrat (7)
Florida (Bill Nelson)
Massachusetts (Scott Brown)
Michigan (Debbie Stabenow)
Minnesota (Amy Klobuchar)
New Jersey (Robert Menendez)
Pennsylvania (Robert Casey, Jr.)
Washington (Maria Cantwell)

Toss Up Democrat (5)
Nebraska (Ben Nelson)
Nevada (Dean Heller)
New Mexico (Jeff Bingaman retiring)
Ohio (Sherrod Brown)
Wisconsin (Herb Kohl retiring)

Toss Up Republican (3)
Missouri (Claire McCaskill)
Virginia (Jim Webb retiring)
West Virginia (Joe Manchin)

Lean Republican (4)
Arizona (Jon Kyl retiring)
Mississippi (Roger Wicker)
Montana (Jon Tester)
Tennessee (Bob Corker)

Likely Republican (1)
Maine (Olympia Snowe)

Safe Republican (5)
Indiana (Richard Lugar)
North Dakota (Kent Conrad retiring)
Texas (Kay Bailey Hutchison retiring)
Utah (Orrin Hatch)
Wyoming (John Barrasso)

Democrats: 50
Republicans: 50

House

This map includes the new map in Louisiana, joining Arkansas, Indiana, and Iowa as states that have completed redistricting. The rest of the states are projections. Missouri has also complete redistricting but I have not reviewed the map yet.

Here's how I handle redistricting. To simplify things, I am going to refer to districts by number as if they were constant. This will lead to reported "pickups" for parties that are just district renumberings, but I think doing it this way will help keep things straight. For example, New Jersey is on track to lose a seat. We will "eliminate" the highest numbered district in the state, NJ-13 held by Albio Sires. However, Sires will almost certainly have a district he can win, it will just have a different number. For argument's sake, let's say that Leonard Lance, a Republican currently representing the Seventh District, is effectively drawn out when his district is eliminated and parceled out among other districts, and Sires's district is renamed the Seventh. We will say that Sires's seat was eliminated but that the Democrats picked up the Seventh District. This will even out after we factor for all the states.

Under this format, the following districts will be eliminated.

IL-19 (John Shimkus)
IA-5 (Steve King)
LA-7 (Charles Boustany)
MA-10 (Bill Keating)
MI-15 (John Dingell)
MO-9 (Blaine Leutkemeyer)
NJ-13 (Albio Sires)
NY-28 (Louise Slaughter)
NY-29 (Tom Reed)
OH-17 (Tim Ryan)
OH-18 (Bob Gibbs)
PA-19 (Todd Platts)

That is seven Republicans and four Democrats. Expect most of these members to show up in other districts come 2013. For instance, Steve King will run in IA-4 as the current incumbent there, Tom Latham, runs against Leonard Boswell in IA-3. These seats will be replaced by eleven new seats in other states. Those will be listed in italics. To help keep this all straight, we are going to break with tradition and list every seat, even in safe districts.

This gives the Republicans a six seat pickup as a base scenario, primarily due to redistricting. We envision a range, depending on the climate, of anywhere between a 38 seat Democratic pickup and a 42 seat Republican pickup. There are about 70 seats that form the potential battlefield for the 2012 elections.

Safe Democrat (101)
AL-7 (Terri Sewell)
AZ-4 (Ed Pastor)
CA-1 (Mike Thompson)
CA-5 (Doris Matsui)
CA-6 (Lynn Woolsey)
CA-7 (George Miller)
CA-8 (Nancy Pelosi)
CA-9 (Barbara Lee)
CA-10 (John Garamendi)
CA-12 (Jackie Speier)
CA-13 (Pete Stark)
CA-14 (Anna Eshoo)
CA-15 (Mike Honda)
CA-16 (Zoe Lofgren)
CA-17 (Sam Farr)
CA-27 (Brad Sherman)
CA-28 (Howard Berman)
CA-29 (Adam Schiff)
CA-30 (Henry Waxman)
CA-31 (Xavier Becerra)
CA-32 (Judy Chu)
CA-33 (Karen Bass)
CA-34 (Lucille Roybal-Allard)
CA-35 (Maxine Waters)
CA-36 special (VACANT)
CA-37 (Laura Richardson)
CA-38 (Grace Napolitano)
CA-39 (Linda Sanchez)
CA-43 (Joe Baca)
CA-53 (Susan Davis)
CO-1 (Diana DeGette)
CT-1 (John Larson)
CT-3 (Rosa DeLauro)
FL-3 (Corrine Brown)
FL-11 (Kathy Castor)
FL-17 (Frederica Wilson)
FL-19 (Ted Deutch)
FL-20 (Debbie Wasserman Schultz)
FL-23 (Alcee Hastings)
GA-4 (Hank Johnson)
GA-5 (John Lewis)
GA-13 (David Scott)
HI-2 (Mazie Hirono retiring)
IL-1 (Bobby Rush)
IL-2 (Jesse Jackson, Jr.)
IL-3 (Dan Lipinski)
IL-4 (Luis Gutierrez)
IL-5 (Mike Quigley)
IL-7 (Danny Davis)
IL-9 (Jan Schakowsky)
LA-2 (Cedric Richmond)
MD-2 (Dutch Ruppersberger)
MD-4 (Donna Edwards)
MD-5 (Steny Hoyer)
MD-7 (Elijah Cummings)
MD-8 (Chris Van Hollen)
MA-1 (John Olver)
MA-7 (Edward Markey)
MA-8 (Michael Capuano)
MA-9 (Stephen Lynch)
MI-12 (Sander Levin)
MI-13 (Hansen Clarke)
MI-14 (John Conyers)
MN-5 (Keith Ellison)
MS-2 (Bennie Thompson)
MO-1 (William Lacy Clay)
NV-1 (Shelley Berkley retiring)
NJ-1 (Robert Andrews)
NJ-8 (Bill Pascrell)
NJ-9 (Steven Rothman)
NJ-10 (Donald Payne)
NY-5 (Gary Ackerman)
NY-6 (Gregory Meeks)
NY-7 (Joseph Crowley)
NY-8 (Jerrold Nadler)
NY-10 (Edolphus Towns)
NY-11 (Yvette Clark)
NY-12 (Nydia Velazquez)
NY-14 (Carolyn Maloney)
NY-15 (Charles Rangel)
NY-16 (Jose Serrano)
NY-17 (Eliot Engel)
NY-18 (Nita Lowey)
NC-12 (Melvin Watt)
OH-11 (Marcia Fudge)
OR-3 (Earl Blumenauer)
PA-1 (Robert Brady)
PA-2 (Chaka Fattah)
SC-6 (James Clyburn)
TN-9 (Steve Cohen)
TX-9 (Al Green)
TX-18 (Sheila Jackson Lee)
TX-20 (Charles Gonzalez)
TX-29 (Gene Green)
TX-30 (Eddie Bernice Johnson)
VT-AL (Peter Welch)
VA-3 (Bobby Scott)
VA-8 (Jim Moran)
WA-7 (Jim McDermott)
WI-2 (Tammy Baldwin)
WI-4 (Gwen Moore)

Likely Democrat (28)
CA-18 (Dennis Cardoza)
CA-23 (Lois Capps)
CA-51 (Bob Filner)
CO-2 (Jared Polis)
CT-2 (Joe Courtney)
DE-AL (John Carney)
HI-1 (Colleeen Hanabusa)
IL-12 (Jerry Costello)
IN-1 (Peter Visclosky)
IN-7 (Andre Carson)
ME-1 (Chellie Pingree)
MD-3 (John Sarbanes)
MA-2 (Richard Neal)
MA-3 (Jim McGovern)
MA-6 (John Tierney)
MN-4 (Betty McCollum)
NM-3 (Ben Ray Lujan)
NY-9 (Anthony Weiner)
NY-21 (Paul Tonko)
NY-27 (Brian Higgins)
NC-1 (G.K. Butterfield)
NC-4 (David Price)
OH-9 (Marcy Kaptur)
RI-1 (David Cicilline)
RI-2 (Jim Langevin)
TX-16 (Silvestre Reyes)
WA-1 (Jay Inslee)
WA-6 (Norm Dicks)

Lean Democrat (22)
AR-4 (Mike Ross)
GA-12 (John Barrow)
KY-3 (John Yarmuth)
ME-2 (Michael Michaud)
MA-4 (Barney Frank)
MA-5 (Niki Tsongas)
MN-7 (Collin Peterson)
MO-5 (Emanuel Cleaver)
NJ-6 (Dave Pallone)
NM-1 (Martin Heinrich retiring)
NY-2 (Steve Israel)
NY-4 (Carolyn McCarthy)
NC-13 (Brad Miller)
OH-13 (Betty Sutton)
OR-1 (David Wu)
PA-13 (Allyson Schwartz)
PA-14 (Mike Doyle)
PA-17 (Tim Holden)
TN-5 (Jim Cooper)
TX-15 (Ruben Hinojosa)
TX-28 (Henry Cuellar)
WA-9 (Adam Smith)
WV-3 (Nick Rahall)

Toss Up Democrat (36)
AZ-7 (Raul Grijalva)
CA-20 (Jim Costa)
CA-47 (Loretta Sanchez)
CO-7 (Ed Perlmutter)
CT-4 (Jim Himes)
CT-5 (Chris Murphy retiring)
GA-2 (Sanford Bishop)
IL-10 (Robert Dold)
IA-1 (Bruce Braley)
IA-2 (Dave Loebsack)
MI-5 (Dale Kildee)
MI-9 (Gary Peters)
MN-1 (Tim Walz)
MO-3 (Russ Carnahan)
MN-8 (Chip Cravaack)
NV-3 (Joe Heck)
NV-4 (NEW)
NH-2 (Charlie Bass)
NJ-12 (Rush Holt)
NY-1 (Tim Bishop)
NY-22 (Maurice Hinchey)
NY-25 (Ann Marie Buerkle)
NC-7 (Mike McIntyre)
NC-8 (Larry Kissell)
NC-11 (Heath Shuler)
OH-10 (Dennis Kucinich)
OK-2 (Dan Boren)
OR-4 (Peter DeFazio)
OR-5 (Kurt Schrader)
PA-12 (Mark Critz)
TX-25 (Lloyd Doggett)
VA-11 (Gerald Connolly)
WA-2 (Rick Larsen)
WA-10 (NEW)
WI-3 (Ron Kind)
WI-7 (Sean Duffy)

Toss Up Republican (44)
AZ-1 (Paul Gosar)
AZ-5 (David Schweikert)
AZ-8 (Gabrielle Gifffords)
CA-3 (Dan Lungren)
CA-11 (Jerry McNerney)
CA-26 (David Dreier)
CA-45 (Mary Bono Mack)
CO-3 (Scott Tipton)
FL-12 (Dennis Ross)
FL-22 (Allen West)
FL-25 (David Rivera)
IL-8 (Joe Walsh)
IL-14 (Randy Hultgren)
IL-17 (Bobby Schilling)
IA-3 (Leonard Boswell)
KY-6 (Ben Chandler)
MI-1 (Dan Benishek)
MI-7 (Tim Walberg)
MN-6 (Michele Bachmann)
NH-1 (Frank Guinta)
NJ-3 (Jon Runyan)
NY-13 (Mike Grimm)
NY-19 (Nan Hayworth)
NY-20 (Christopher Gibson)
NY-23 (Bill Owens)
NY-24 (Richard Hanna)
NC-2 (Renee Ellmers)
OH-1 (Steve Chabot)
OH-6 (Bill Johnson)
OH-15 (Steve Stivers)
OH-16 (Jim Renacci)
PA-4 (Jason Altmire)
PA-7 (Patrick Meehan)
PA-8 (Michael Fitzpatrick)
PA-11 (Lou Barletta)
PA-15 (Charlie Dent)
SD-AL (Kristi Noem)
TX-23 (Quico Canseco)
TX-27 (Blake Farenthold)
UT-2 (Jim Matheson)
VA-5 (Robert Hurt)
WA-3 (Jaime Herrera)
WA-8 (Dave Reichert)
WI-8 (Reid Ribble)

Lean Republican (25)
AZ-3 (Ben Quayle)
AR-1 (Rick Crawford)
AR-2 (Tim Griffin)
CA-44 (Ken Calvert)
CA-50 (Brian Bilbray)
CO-4 (Cory Gardner)
FL-2 (Steve Southerland)
FL-8 (Daniel Webster)
GA-8 (Austin Scott)
IL-11 (Adam Kinzinger)
IN-2 (Joe Donnelly retiring)
IN-9 (Todd Young)
KS-3 (Kevin Yoder)
MN-3 (Erik Paulsen)
NM-2 (Steve Pearce)
NY-26 (Kathy Hochul)
NV-2 special (VACANT)
PA-3 (Mike Kelly)
PA-6 (Jim Gerlach)
PA-10 (Thomas Marino)
SC-2 (Joe Wilson)
SC-5 (Mick Mulvaney)
VA-2 (Scott Rigell)
VA-9 (Morgan Griffith)
WV-1 (David McKinley)

Likely Republican (20)
AL-2 (Martha Roby)
AL-3 (Mike Rogers)
CA-2 (Wally Herger)
CA-24 (Elton Gallegly)
CA-48 (John Campbell)
FL-24 (Sandy Adams)
FL-26 (NEW)
ID-1 (Raul Labrador)
IN-8 (Larry Bucshon)
MD-1 (Andy Harris)
MI-3 (Justin Amash)
MI-11 (Thaddeus McCotter)
MS-1 (Alan Nunnelee)
MO-2 (Todd Akin retiring)
MO-4 (Vicky Hartzler)
MT-AL (Denny Rehberg retiring)
NJ-7 (Leonard Lance)
OH-12 (Pat Tiberi)
TN-8 (Stephen Fincher)
VA-7 (Eric Cantor)

Safe Republican (158)
AL-1 (Jo Bonner)
AL-4 (Robert Aderholt)
AL-5 (Mo Brooks)
AL-6 (Spencer Bachus)
AK-AL (Don Young)
AZ-2 (Trent Franks)
AZ-6 (Jeff Flake retiring)
AZ-9 (NEW)
AR-3 (Steve Womack)
CA-4 (Tom McClintock)
CA-19 (Jeff Denham)
CA-21 (Devin Nunes)
CA-22 (Kevin McCarthy)
CA-25 (Buck McKeon)
CA-40 (Ed Royce)
CA-41 (Jerry Lewis)
CA-42 (Gary Miller)
CA-46 (Dana Rohrabacher)
CA-49 (Darrell Issa)
CA-52 (Duncan D. Hunter)
CO-5 (Doug Lamborn)
CO-6 (Mike Coffman)
FL-1 (Jeff Miller)
FL-4 (Ander Crenshaw)
FL-5 (Richard Nugent)
FL-6 (Cliff Stearns)
FL-7 (John Mica)
FL-9 (Gus Bilirakis)
FL-10 (Bill Young)
FL-13 (Vern Buchanan)
FL-14 (Connie Mack)
FL-15 (Bill Posey)
FL-16 (Tom Rooney)
FL-18 (Ileana Ros-Lehtinen)
FL-21 (Mario Diaz-Balart)
FL-27 (NEW)
GA-1 (Jack Kingston)
GA-3 (Lynn Westmoreland)
GA-6 (Tom Price)
GA-7 (Rob Woodall)
GA-9 (Tom Graves)
GA-10 (Paul Broun)
GA-11 (Phil Gingrey)
GA-14 (NEW)
ID-2 (Mike Simpson)
IL-6 (Peter Roskam)
IL-13 (Judy Biggert)
IL-15 (Tim Johnson)
IL-16 (Don Manzullo)
IL-18 (Aaron Schock)
IN-3 (Marlin Stutzman)
IN-4 (Todd Rokita)
IN-5 (Dan Burton)
IN-6 (Mike Pence retiring)
IA-4 (Tom Latham retiring)
KS-1 (Tim Huelskamp)
KS-2 (Lynn Jenkins)
KS-4 (Mike Pompeo)
KY-1 (Ed Whitfield)
KY-2 (Brett Guthrie)
KY-4 (Geoff Davis)
KY-5 (Harold Rogers)
LA-1 (Steve Scalise)
LA-3 (Jeff Landry)
LA-4 (John Fleming)
LA-5 (Rodney Alexander)
LA-6 (Bill Cassidy)
MD-6 (Roscoe Bartlett)
MI-2 (Bill Huizenga)
MI-4 (Dave Camp)
MI-6 (Fred Upton)
MI-8 (Mike Rogers)
MI-10 (Candice Miller)
MN-2 (John Kline)
MS-3 (Gregg Harper)
MS-4 (Steven Palazzo)
MO-6 (Sam Graves)
MO-7 (Billy Long)
MO-8 (Jo Ann Emerson)
NE-1 (Jeff Fortenberry)
NE-2 (Lee Terry)
NE-3 (Adrian Smith)
NJ-2 (Frank LoBiondo)
NJ-4 (Chris Smith)
NJ-5 (Scott Garrett)
NJ-11 (Rodney Frelinghuysen)
NY-3 (Peter King)
NC-3 (Walter Jones)
NC-5 (Virginia Foxx)
NC-6 (Howard Coble)
NC-9 (Sue Myrick)
NC-10 (Patrick McHenry)
ND-AL (Rick Berg retiring)
OH-2 (Jean Schmidt)
OH-3 (Mike Turner)
OH-4 (Jim Jordan)
OH-5 (Bob Latta)
OH-7 (Steve Austria)
OH-8 (John Boehner)
OH-14 (Steven LaTourette)
OK-1 (John Sullivan)
OK-3 (Frank Lucas)
OK-4 (Tom Cole)
OK-5 (James Lankford)
OR-2 (Greg Walden)
PA-5 (Glenn Thompson)
PA-9 (Bill Shuster)
PA-16 (Joe Pitts)
PA-18 (Tim Murphy)
SC-1 (Tim Scott)
SC-3 (Jeff Duncan)
SC-4 (Trey Gowdy)
SC-7 (NEW)
TN-1 (Phil Roe)
TN-2 (John Duncan)
TN-3 (Chuck Fleischmann)
TN-4 (Scott DesJarlais)
TN-6 (Diane Black)
TN-7 (Marsha Blackburn)
TX-1 (Louie Gohmert)
TX-2 (Ted Poe)
TX-3 (Sam Johnson)
TX-4 (Ralph Hall)
TX-5 (Jeb Hensarling)
TX-6 (Joe Barton)
TX-7 (John Culberson)
TX-8 (Kevin Brady)
TX-10 (Michael McCaul)
TX-11 (Mike Conaway)
TX-12 (Kay Granger)
TX-13 (Mac Thornberry)
TX-14 (Ron Paul)
TX-17 (Bill Flores)
TX-19 (Randy Neugebauer)
TX-21 (Lamar Smith)
TX-22 (Pete Olson)
TX-24 (Kenny Marchant)
TX-26 (Michael Burgess)
TX-31 (John Carter)
TX-32 (Pete Sessions)
TX-33 (NEW)
TX-34 (NEW)
TX-35 (NEW)
TX-36 (NEW)
UT-1 (Rob Bishop)
UT-3 (Jason Chaffetz)
UT-4 (NEW)
VA-1 (Rob Wittman)
VA-4 (Randy Forbes)
VA-6 (Bob Goodlatte)
VA-10 (Frank Wolf)
WA-4 (Doc Hastings)
WA-5 (Cathy McMorris Rodgers)
WV-2 (Shelley Moore Capito)
WI-1 (Paul Ryan)
WI-5 (Jim Sensenbrenner)
WI-6 (Tom Petri)
WY-AL (Cynthia Lummis)

Republicans: 247
Democrats: 190