State of the Day - Massachusetts

Formed in a moment of religious reform and fundamentalism, Massachusetts's role in manufacturing and overseas trade made it the early economic powerhouse of the United States. The state has a rich intellectual tradition, spread by Yankee settlers whose influence can still be seen across the country, especially in the Upper Midwest. After mass Irish immigration began in the mid-19th century, Massachusetts politics was a battle between Yankee Protestant Republicans and Irish Catholic Democrats for the better part of a century. Back then, it was the Republican Party that carried the torch of Massachusetts' liberal progressive tradition. Irish Catholics grew in number and by the mid-20th century, they had turned Massachusetts into one of the most Democratic states. The Kennedy dynasty helped influence Protestants to vote Democratic as well. Massachusetts was the only state to vote for George McGovern, the state has generally pursued liberal policies (remember Willie Horton and weekend furloughs?), and the most notable politicians here have all been confirmed liberals: Michael Dukakis, Edward Kennedy, John Kerry. However, the economy collapsed in the late 1980's and the state elected fiscally conservative Republican William Weld as Governor. Over the next sixteen years under four Republican Governors, the economy improved but the state continued to be quite liberal, even passing a preview of ObamaCare (RonmneyCare, if you will) on the state level in 2006. The economy has slowed down again over the last ten years and Massachusetts lost another seat in the 2010 Census. There is a consensus here on cultural liberalism and the state was the first to approve gay marriage. While this was controversial at first, the policy has generally been confirmed by subsequent elections. Massachusetts is now almost a unanimously Democratic state, with the notable exception of Republican Senator Scott Brown's victory in the January 2010 special election to replace Edward Kennedy.

In 2010, Democratic Governor Deval Patrick found himself in trouble with very low approval ratings. However, opposition to him split and Patrick managed to improve his standing somewhat, winning with 49%. Democrats continued to maintain a lock on the House delegation. Barack Obama will obviously win Massachusetts in 2012. The big race here will involve Scott Brown's attempt to win a full term in the Senate.

Massachusetts lost one seat in redistricting. The Democrats will control redistricting, but the process will be tricky. Population growth has been relatively uniform. If somebody retires or runs for the Senate, their district will probably be broken up and apportioned to other members. This is especially true of Michael Capuano's district, which is centered around Boston, touches four separate districts, and has the smallest population. You have to figure safe seats will remain for senior Democrats Ed Markey and Barney Frank. Tenth District Rep. Bill Keating is the most junior and has the least Democratic district, but it includes the Cape Cod area and will be difficult to dismantle. Barring a retirment, the outcome will have more to do with local politics on Beacon Hill than anything else.


President – 11 Electoral Votes

Barack Obama did a tad worse here than you might have expected in 2008, which I ascribe to the state’s disgust with the very similar Deval Patrick. Even so, Obama won 62% and I cannot imagine that Massachusetts will be competitive in 2012. The primary here will be on March 6, barring a change in the law, which will probably prove too late to matter. If it does, one presumes the state will favor Mitt Romney, though his 51%-41% win here over John McCain in 2008 was hardly impressive. Still, Massachusetts is not likely to vote for an identifiable social conservative, so it's hard to see someone like Sarah Palin beating Romney. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

Governor – Deval Patrick (D)

After several missteps, Patrick entered 2010 with dismal job approval ratings. However, he got a huge break with the entry of former Democrat Timothy Cahill as an Independent, effectively splitting the anti-Patrick vote. Still, Patrick managed to pick himself up enough to win with 49%, so he probably would have won anyway. Patrick's four immediate predecessors did not make it to the end of a second term, so I had to look and see if the state had passed a term limit law since Michael Dukakis's time. It has not. If Republicans could not get Patrick in 2010, it will be hard to do so in 2014. LEAN DEMOCRAT.

Senior Senator – John Kerry (D)

Kerry’s longtime colleague, Edward Kennedy, spent the first eighteen years of his career as something of a dilettante in the Senate. Only after finally losing his ambitions for the White House did Kennedy dedicate himself to the Senate and become a legend in that body. Kerry was not a particularly accomplished Senator for four terms, angling first for the White House and then Secretary of State. Still finding himself in the Senate, he seems newly determined to become a major player and active legislator in the Senate, much like Kennedy. He’s certainly safe in Massachusetts in 2014. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

Junior Senator – Scott Brown (R)

Brown’s January 2010 victory to replace the late Edward Kennedy was a true "Bloomberg" (a perfect political storm allowing a candidate to win who otherwise would have no chance). First, the election would not have even occurred had Massachusetts Democrats not messed with the law in 2004 to prevent Mitt Romney from appointing a successor to John Kerry. As it happened, the election took place at a low point for the Democratic Party. It also coincided with the culmination of the debate on the health care bill, which was unpopular even in Massachusetts. Coincidentally, Brown could maximize that issue since he would be the 41st, filibuster holding vote against the bill in the Senate. Brown also came up against a woefully horrible performance by Democrat Martha Coakley, who memorably thought Red Sox hero Curt Schilling was a Yankee. To top it off, Brown was a good candidate himself.

Brown will still be a good candidate in 2012, but the rest of the perfect storm should have dissipated. Brown has done everything right and has given himself a chance, continuing to poll well. So far, Democrats have produced only two weak candidates: Newton Mayor Setti Warren and Alan Khazei. Democrats hope to find a better candidate, such as Reps. Mike Capuano, Stephen Lynch, and Ed Markey, or Consumer Protection Czare Elizabeth Warren. If Democrats can attract one of these candidates, Brown faces long odds to win in 2012. LEAN DEMOCRAT.

House 1 – John Olver (D)

This West Massachusetts seat is safely Democratic. The seat needs to pick up 76,000 people, but with its location it will be difficult to draw the districts in a way that does not leave Olver in good shape. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

House 2 – Richard Neal (D)

This Springfield based seat is not totally safe for the Democrats, and Neal sank to 57% this year. It needs to pick up 63,000 people. LIKELY DEMOCRAT.

House 3 – Jim McGovern (D)

See the previous entry, but substitute Worcester for Springfield and it needs 67,000 people. LIKELY DEMOCRAT.

House 4 – Barney Frank (D)

Frank shockingly had to campaign for this overwhelmingly Democratic Suburban Boston/South Massachusetts seat, thanks to a horrible Democratic year and his own embarrassing role in the financial collapse. His 54%-43% was by far his worst during his long tenure. His seat needs 56,000 people, but with his seniority redistricters won't leave him out in the cold. Still, he could continue to see races if he remains a figure of controversy. LEAN DEMOCRAT.

House 5 – Niki Tsongas (D)

This Lowell based seat is not hopeless for Republicans and Tsongas was not impressive in winning it in a 2007 special election. While her fundraising was weak, doubly so considering her pedigree (she is the widow of former Senator Paul Tsongas), she survived 55%-42% thanks in large part to a terrible Republican candidate. Her seat needs 70,000 and she will be doing some suppliant lobbying on Beacon Hill this year. LEAN DEMOCRAT.

House 6 – John Tierney (D)

Some national Republicans talked up this mostly Democratic Northeast Massachusetts seat after Tierney's wife pleaded guilty to tax fraud. Republicans nominated a guy who had made statements that made him appear to be a "birther", which didn't help. Tierney won 57%-43%. This seat needs 70,000 people. LIKELY DEMOCRAT.

House 7 – Edward Markey (D)

This heavily Democratic North Boston based seat needs 74,000 people. Markey is a senior figure on the Energy & Commerce Committee, so redistricters will make sure he is okay, leaving him free to spend too much time on your television screens this fall. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

House 8 – Michael Capuano (D)

I used to live in this Cambridge based district. I was a Democrat then, and I would guarantee that I was in the right 10% of the political spectrum here. The seat needs 100,000 people, and would probably be the easiest in the state to eliminate. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

House 9 – Stephen Lynch (D)

South Bawston isn't a very good place for Republicans. This seat is relatively populous, needing only 54,000 people. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

House 10 – Bill Keating (D)

This Suburban Boston/Cape Cod seat is the most Republican in Massachusetts, but it still leans Democratic. Scott Brown won this district in a landslide, however. Keating ran as a pretty generic Democrat for this open seat last year. The Republican candidate had some personal issues and could not unite his party. Keating pulled off an unimpressive 47%-42% victory. Keating should face tough competiton next time as well. The seat needs to pick up 77,000 people, but its location in the far eastern part of the state makes it difficult to eliminate. SEAT ELIMINATED.