State of the Day - Michigan

Michigan was originally frontier settled by Yankees who made the state overwhelmingly Republican through the 1920's. The state became an industrial center, first in lumber and then for automobiles, attracting immigrants from abroad and blacks from the South. Democrats surged here in the 1930's as unions flexed their muscles. Democrats dominated here for thirty years and built a large welfare state. The automobile industry collapsed in the 1970's and ever since, Michigan's big manufacturing economy has suffered. The state (with the notable exception of the City of Detroit) recovered as taxes were lowered and union membership declined in the 1980's and 1990's, helping the economy to diversify. However, the auto industry totally collapsed again in the 2000's and the state has essentially been in a recession since 2001. The big three auto companies collapsed under the weight of fuel effiency standards and big union contracts, finally ending in the bankruptcy of GM and Chrysler in 2008-2009. Democrats have a big base in what is left of the City of Detroit and the heavily unionized, suffering industrial towns, while Republicans dominate the rest of Outstate Michigan and the Upper Peninsula. The Detroit suburbs hold the balance of power. The balance usually tilts just a bit to the left of center, though Republicans remain very competitive.

2010 was a productive year for Michigan Republicans. They won the open Governor's Mansion easily and took two House seats. For 2012, the GOP aims to win the state for its Presidential nominee and defeat Democratic Senator Debbie Stabenow. Neither will be easy.

Michigan lost population during the last decade and lost a House seat. Republicans will control the redistricting process. They would obviously like to draw out a Democrat, but it will not be easy because the current plan is already a Republican gerrymander. The missing seat should probably come from the Detroit area, but presumably they will need to retain two black majority districts. The area is surrounded by two senior Democrats in safe seats and two marginal seats. Unless Republicans are willing to end the career of Sander Levin or John Dingell, their most likely move would be to target the marginal Ninth District currently held by Democrat Gary Peters. The latest proposal does indeed place Peters in the same district with Levin.


Michigan – 16 Electoral Votes

Michigan has long been near the middle of the American political spectrum, but just enough to the left for George W. Bush to lose it twice while he won narrow national victories. Barack Obama won 57% here, four points better than his national showing. This may the one state where Obama’s bailout of General Motors and Chrysler would actually help him. The Republicans could easily win here, however, if they won a decent sized national victory.

Mitt Romney’s father was Governor here, and that could give Romney a boost if he is the nominee. He would certainly be favored in a primary. Romney won the 2008 primary, but only by 39%-30% over John McCain. The state's open primary would probably work against Sarah Palin and her ilk. LEAN DEMOCRAT.

Governor – Rick Snyder (R)

The economy fishtailed for eight years under Democrat Jennifer Granholm. Democrats offered voters Virg Bernero, who offered more of the same. He was crushed 58%-40% by Snyder. Michigan tilts Democratic, but the problems here are so endemic Snyder may get a decently long rope to try to pull the state out of the depths. TOSSUP REPUBLICAN.

Senior Senator – Carl Levin (D)

Levin may see some competition in 2014 if it is a huge Republican year, but otherwise this seat is his for as long as he wants it. LIKELY DEMOCRAT.

Junior Senator – Debbie Stabenow (D)

Stabenow has an advantage, but will probably see strong competition, especially if Barack Obama continues to drag down his party in 2012. Tea Partier Chad Dewey has already announced his candidacy, but Republicans will have to do better than that. Libertarian Scotty Boman is considering the race but he would be a long shot as well. Republicans are currently hoping to recruit Rep. Thaddeus McCotter. LEAN DEMOCRAT.

House 1 – Dan Benishek (R)

This marginal Upper Peninsula/Northern Michigan seat elected pro-life Democrat Bart Stupak for nine terms before he retired after his controversial role in enabling the health care legislation to pass. This district needs to pick up 63,000 people. TOSSUP REPUBLICAN.

House 2 – Bill Huizenga (R)

Huizenga easily won this mostly Republican Western Michigan seat when it came open in 2010. It needs to pick up 27,000 people, which won't change anything. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 3 – Justin Amash (R)

Amash is considered a star by many conservatives. He should be fine in this Republican leaning Grand Rapids seat, but his ideological approach may get him in trouble in a Democratic year. His district needs only 28,000 people, which should keep his district friendly. LIKELY REPUBLICAN.

House 4 - Dave Camp (R)

The new Ways and Means Chairman has iced this marginal Central Michigan seat, even in bad Republican years. Given his position, redistricters won't let anything happen to him. His seat needs 40,000 people. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 5 – Dale Kildee (D)

The Flint based seat needs 71,000 people. While the seat is overwhelmingly Democratic, Kildee only got 53% in 2010. He is a prime target for redistricting. TOSSUP DEMOCRAT.

House 6 – Fred Upton (R)

Democrats failed to seriously contest this marginal Southwest Michigan seat in the boom Democratic years. Upton should continue on with 51,000 new people. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 7 – Tim Walberg (R)

Walberg held this district for one term, beating a moderate Republican in the primary in 2006. He lost to Democrat Mark Schauer in 2008 but beat him 50%-45% in 2010. Walberg was way too conservative for this swing Southern Michigan seat the first time, and may prove to be again. The seat needs to pick up 44,000 people, which may give the GOP the opportunity to help him. TOSSUP REPUBLICAN.

House 8 - Mike Rogers (R)

Like Upton, Rogers easily survived two bad years in a marginal district and is safe going forward. The seat needs only 18,000 people. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 9 – Gary Peters (D)

Peters won this marginal suburban Detroit district in 2008 with a smashing 52%-43% victory over Republican incumbent Joe Knollenberg. He survived 50%-47% in 2010 thanks to a ridiculously bad Republican candidate. Peters is in enough trouble as is. He also has a redistricing problem due to his caucasian ethnicity, lack of seniority, and party. he is most likely to lose his seat should redistricters eliminate a Detroit area seat. As of right now Peters would need 54,000 people. The latest Republican proposal essentially eliminates this district and places Peters in a primary with Sander Levin. TOSSUP DEMOCRAT.

House 10 – Candice Miller (R)

Miller is becoming a force in the House Republican Conference and has had no real competition in this Republican leaning Thumb district. The seat has grown faster than any in the state and is actually about 1,000 people over the equal population standard. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 11 – Thaddeus McCotter (R)

McCotter barely beat a poor candidate in 2008 but rebounded to 59% in the big Republican year of 2010. The Suburban Detroit seat needs only 6,000 people. Republicans would ideally like to shore up this very marginal district. LIKELY REPUBLICAN.

House 12 – Sander Levin (D)

This heavily Democratic suburban Detroit seat needs 90,000 people. Levin's best asset is his seniority on the Ways and Means Committee. Republicans are currently proposing placing Levin in the same seat as Ninth District Democrat Gary Peters, a race in whihc Levin would be favored. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

House 13 – Hansen Clarke (D)

Clarke won this seat by defeating Carolyn Cheeks "Kwame's Mother" Kilpatrick in the primary. Republicans don't exist in the City of Detroit. The seat has lost 9% of its population in the last decade and needs 118,000 new people. I would still expect two black majority districts to survive, so I would expect to see Clarke in Congress in 2013. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

House 14 – John Conyers (D)

Conyers easily survived his wife's felony conviction for taking bribes. This Detroit seat needs 103,000 people, but like Clarke he is likely to survive because of the need to keep two black majority districts. Republicans will not be a factor. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

House 15 – John Dingell (D)

Dingell had an actual race in this very Democratic Suburban Detroit/Ann Arbor seat, but he won 57%-40%. Dingell is unlikely to have problems in redistricting. For one thing, his seat needs the relatively small amount of 24,000 people. Secondly, Dingell is a legendary legislator and a senior figure on the Energy & Commerce Committee. This makes him valuable to local officials, and redistricters will most likely turn their attention to Peters instead. The only change for Dingell will be his district number. SEAT ELIMINATED.