Comments on Beyond The Polls: State of the Day - Alaska

JSL, You make interesting points, but I think the...

2009-05-22T16:28:02.906-04:00

JSL,

You make interesting points, but I think they help to prove why it will be very difficult for Democrats to win federal races in Alaska going forward. You wrote, "traditional Western values of self-reliance and independent thinking are prized, and both dependence and hypocrisy are scorned." So far, what Obama/Democratic policies promote these virtues? I don't expect a new, larger and possibly intrusive health care plan to do the trick. Given the leftward tilt of Obama's administration, my guess is that there will be little that entices Alaskan voters to consider crossing over to his side of the aisle in 2012.

Indeed, if Alaska's truly have those values, they would likely applaud Sarah Palin's decision to veto $28.6 million in federal stimulus money. In fact, she said, "Alaskans and our communities have a long history of independence and opposing many mandates from Washington, D.C." If the Democrats start adopting policies promoting individual liberties and less dependency on the federal government, then perhaps they will be competitive. I think the only reason Barack Obama might have been competitive is that several of George W. Bush's policies were the exact opposite of what Alaskan's want to see from their elected officials.

"By defeating Ted Stevens, Begich simply demonstrated that Democrats can compete and win in Alaska. Sure, some races are easier to win than others. But in no sense does the GOP have a lock on the state."

I disagree. How often do convicted felons almost win races for Senate? In most states, Stevens (and Young, for that matter) would have easily been defeated. The fact that Stevens came so close is a testament to two things - Stevens' long historical ties to the state and Alaskan's desire to elect someone who is NOT a Democrat. I doubt many people enthusiastically cast votes for Stevens. I think Stevens did as well as he did because he was the non-Democratic option. It think it's safe to say that any non-felon Republican would have won the Senate race.

For the record, I do think that Don Young is vulnerable. Under the right circumstances and given the right opponent, he could easily lose. However, can you envision an environment MORE favorable to Democrats than 2008? It is unlikely to happen in 2010. Unless there are more revelations about Young, I don't think it will be any easier to defeat him in 2010 than it was in 2008.

Similarly, I think that Palin is strong because (a) she is still fairly popular (even if much diminished), (b) no other Republican could easily challenge her for the GOP nomination, and (c) the Democrats have no strong challengers ready to take aim at Palin. For sure, the Democrats will do anything they can to defeat Palin, but right now, I still think she is a significant favorite. Not a lock by any means, but a strong favorite.

Philip Munger, If you read the lengthy posts on t...

2009-05-22T16:11:22.031-04:00

Philip Munger,

If you read the lengthy posts on this blog, you will see that we write "Democratic" when appropriate and I edited the State of the Day post to reflect that. Any suggestion to the contrary has no basis.

I think Berkowitz would be a weak candidate for governor. If he could not beat a corrupt Congressman, what makes you think he could beat Sarah Palin? There is no doubt Palin's popularity fell as a result of her place on the GOP ticket. Almost all governors have faced sharp decreases in popularity, as they face uncertainty and difficult budget choices.

If Sarah Palin intends on running for President in 2012, she could decide not to run in 2010. However, given that the biggest criticism of Palin is that she is a lightweight, it would make little sense for her to do this.

As far as the poll, there's no doubt Palin's popularity has fallen. However, any incumbent with a 50%+ approval is not in bad shape - certainly not bad enough to throw in the towel. Moreover, it would be totally unrealistic to expect her to maintain the 85%+ approval ratings she had last year.

I assume you are getting your information from this post, which is full of misinformation. First, Don Young has never indicated he would run for Governor. Second, Young recently suggested that Ted Stevens run for governor. Neither Young nor Stevens would stand a good chance against Palin in a primary. The thought of either corrupt politician running for governor is laughable (though I would not put it past them).

Even if Palin's popularity is between 50% and 53%, as you state, she is still in good position to run for Governor in 2010. Moreover, if gas prices go up between now and 2010, that could make things a lot easier for her. At this point, she is a clear favorite.

JD, you overstate your case by asserting that the ...

2009-05-22T15:16:36.094-04:00

JD, you overstate your case by asserting that the 2008 election showed the Democrats' weakness in Alaska.

My sense is that Alaska is at heart culturally libertarian, very much like Montana. Traditional Western values of self-reliance and independent thinking are prized, and both dependence and hypocrisy are scorned. As a result, allegiance is weak to either of the national political parties. Democrats who seem independent-minded have historically done well there (such as Mike Gravel and Tony Knowles), and Republicans who succumb to corruption and hypocrisy tend to get the axe (such as Ted Stevens and Frank Murkowski). Obama's campaign saw Alaska as a potential Democratic pick-up opportunity in the 2008 race until McCain picked Sarah Palin as his running mate.

Like Tony Knowles, Mark Begich is a former mayor of Anchorage, the state's largest city and home of nearly half of its population. By defeating Ted Stevens, Begich simply demonstrated that Democrats can compete and win in Alaska. Sure, some races are easier to win than others. But in no sense does the GOP have a lock on the state.

Considering how the national parties are repositioning themselves right now, I'd expect a few election cycles of serious competitiveness between them in Alaska, provided the state's Democrats can persuade solid candidates to run. In the wake of all the corruption scandals, this is a window of opportunity for Alaska Democrats that they would be wise to jump at. Palin and Young are both much more vulnerable than you suggest, and with the right opponents they could each be toppled.

I think the term "Democrat" candidate was meant as...

2009-05-22T11:25:16.368-04:00

I think the term "Democrat" candidate was meant as a teeny weeny slur.

Berkowitz has expressed interest in the gubernatorial race, Benson has stated "I'm not done with Don," and Palin will not run for governor in 2010.

As to the Palin poll plummet, this post mischaracterizes how far Palin has fallen in popularity in Alaska. The most recent poll by Hayes Research showed plus 54% - a HUGE drop from summer 2008. It is one of the fastest, farthest drops of a politician who had become more famous during that time, in US political history. And the ascent of her negatives was even more startling.

Alaskans may hate the Feds (though, not the Feds' $$$), but they can spot and despise a phony better than most states' citizens.

And there has been no poll that yet fully encompasses the public's digestion of the way she handled to 2009 legislative session, the stimulus package, the worst springtime flooding - it isn't over yet - in a generation, and budget vetoes. Not a single political commentator at any media outlet, or blog - other than at the Pain shrines - has assessed her 2009 job during the legislative session positively.

I'm predicting the next will put her down between 53% and 50%.

Philip Munger
Progressive Alaska

"Senator Murkowski survived in 2004 against the st...

2009-05-21T20:08:35.085-04:00

"Senator Murkowski survived in 2004 against the strongest Democrat challenger she could draw despite furor over the fact that her father appointed her to the Senate in 2002."

You left "the" out of "the furor," but more importantly, the adjective for "Democrat" is "Democratic." Think by analogy about the difference between the tone of "Jew lawyer" and "Jewish lawyer." "Democrat" as an adjective is used as a slur by many Republicans, but was probably a typo on your part.