tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5375225817278453406.post3275259597902773525..comments2008-07-15T00:19:51.950-04:00JDnoreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5375225817278453406.post-65884520625265657642008-07-15T00:19:51.950-04:002008-07-15T00:19:51.950-04:00Yes, the latest poll shows Mitch Daniels up by 14- it was his poll. Still so far no poll has shown him able to break the 50% barrier. A 14 point lead isn't as impressive when you can't actually break 50%.Hanknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5375225817278453406.post-84522895187850516842008-07-14T20:41:43.455-04:002008-07-14T20:41:43.455-04:00Great post. I like your analysis, there are of course, a few things I disagree with:<BR/><BR/>Wa-Gov should be in tier 2, or maybe tier 1. Rossi is consistently close and Gregoire under 50%.<BR/><BR/>In-Gov should be in tier 3. Daniels is not too popular, and Obama seems like he wants to contest the state.<BR/><BR/>NH-Sen I don't think Sununu is quite that far gone. He is a good fit for the state and a good campaigner, unlikely to make serious mistakes.<BR/><BR/>TX-22 should be a toss-up. Lampson only won last time because his challenger was a write-in candidate, and the candidate this year is better.<BR/><BR/>MS-1 should be close, if only because it leans so far to the right.<BR/><BR/>OR-5 Erickson will probably lose by as much as he did last time. R's could have won the seat if they nominated Mannix.<BR/><BR/>Anyway, those are my thoughts on a few of them.AJ526http://www.blogger.com/profile/18324860447913670229noreply@blogger.com