tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5375225817278453406.post3380985970885122811..comments2008-12-24T15:11:42.164-05:00JDnoreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5375225817278453406.post-52582932107262056842008-12-24T15:11:00.000-05:002008-12-24T15:11:00.000-05:00This is the most Democratic district in Kentucky by far, but by national standards it is quite marginal, though it probably does tip Democrat by a point or two. As I said, the trend here certainly favors Democrats and I think Yarmuth is a good bet going forward.ARhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01160908302784847352noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5375225817278453406.post-43264123804072486672008-12-24T15:08:00.000-05:002008-12-24T15:08:00.000-05:00Yeah, Jack Conway would have smoked Anne Northup in 2002, but Bush's popularity was high at the time, so she survived the race.<BR/><BR/>Jack opted not to run again in 2004, and Miller got crushed - and rightfully so.<BR/><BR/>Finally the district got a good Rep in Yarmuth, and he will have this seat as long as he wants it, assuming he keeps his nose clean.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5375225817278453406.post-80000349540211294862008-12-24T02:48:00.000-05:002008-12-24T02:48:00.000-05:00I would not call KY-03 a "tossup" seat. This is a seat that even John Kerry won, in Kentucky, where he lost statewide by 20 points. Anne Northup's win here in 1996 was a major fluke due to a completely inept Democratic incumbent and the fact that she never really faced a tough election cycle for Republicans until 2006. In 2008, as Barack Obama lost the state by about sixteen points, he carried this district by a healthy 56%-43% margin. Yarmuth will also continue to be helped by the flight of Conservative white voters out of Louisville and into the nearby, fast growing suburban counties.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com