Comments on Beyond The Polls: Georgia Senate Runoff

Here's what I know. The person ahead at the start...

2008-12-07T22:45:00.000-05:00

Here's what I know. The person ahead at the start of the recount process usually wins. Secondly, Coleman's lead actually grew during the recount, to the point that he'd still lead even if 100% of the "missing ballots" go to Franken. Third (and belive it or not, I have experience working election law in Minnesota), the odds of Franken winning enough on challenges and rejected absentee ballots are extremely long, given Minnesota precedents in those areas. 300 votes is a tiny number in general, but it is actually a large number in the context of a recount.

95% is an estimate, but only very rarely do challenges and litigation overturn a lead. Franken is now in a position where he needs the highly unlikely.

I do agree with you that the votes should be counted and the process respected. That said, Franken needs to stop publicizing his "internal tally" like it's a leaked internal poll during campaign season. This is vote counting, not campaigning, and confusing the two is one of my pet peeves.

I don't see how you can put such percentages up. W...

2008-12-07T05:12:00.000-05:00

I don't see how you can put such percentages up. What are you basing that on? There may be hundreds of absentee ballots that were erroneously not counted, in addition to challenges, which I agree will mostly be denied in favor of counting votes (I clarify that, because I understand some of Franken's challenges are to count, rather than not count ballots). I really don't think any of us knows enough to have a clear idea of just how many ballots will be counted and what the margin of victory will be for whom.

And, for the record, here's what you posted:

"[...]at least once Al Franken drops his increasingly long shot challenges in Minnesota[...]"

He won't and shouldn't drop it. The process should play out until a definitive winner is determined.

Also, remember that the Senate ultimately has sole authority over who it seats. If they determine that a sufficient number of votes were in their view improperly excluded from tallies, they could do various things including launching an investigation, at the end of which they might seat Franken or require a new election. These things are not unprecedented in either House of Congress. But for the record, I expect that the Senate will accept the decisions of the Minnesota Secretary of State and state courts and that the final result will be based on the best effort to count all votes with reasonably discernible intent.

Well, I didn't suggest that Franken should drop hi...

2008-12-03T02:55:00.000-05:00

Well, I didn't suggest that Franken should drop his challenge. I merely note that since Coleman will almost certainly be ahead at the end of the recount, Franken faces long odds in picking up the victory.

Franken is depending on challenges to individual voters, which given the nature of his challenges and Minnesota election history is not a good bet to put him over the top. I'm sure he will file lawsuits, but I have no reason to believe that he can overturn the results with such means. The success rate of such suits are quite small.

I'm not surprised that Franken is fighting to the end, and despite his claims on Election Night, I would expect Coleman to do the same. Realistically, the leader at the end of the recount (almost certainly Coleman), has a 95% chance of taking office on January 3.

Why on earth are you talking about Franken "droppi...

2008-12-02T21:09:00.000-05:00

Why on earth are you talking about Franken "dropping" his so-called "long-shot" challenges? If you were in his position, would you quit before making sure all legal votes were counted? They are hand-counting votes and will try to determine the intent of each voter. Then, there will be litigation to determine which absentee ballots legally merit being counted. And unless you have some surprising inside knowledge, you have no reason to believe that either Franken or Coleman is a long-shot at this point. The election is simply too close to call, until all the votes are counted and all the challenges and litigation are finished. I wouldn't be surprised if either candidate was determined to be the victor in the end, nor should you be.