Tobias, Interesting comments. Right now, I think...

2009-07-06T10:38:03.364-04:00

Tobias,

Interesting comments. Right now, I think it would be very difficult for Sarah Palin to win the Presidency. As you noted, most people have an opinion about Palin and I think that many people do question her ability to take on such a prominent role. It's hard to see how Palin's resignation will help alleviate any concerns the public might have. However, things can change fast and even 2012 is a long way off.

In a traditional sense, Palin has all but thrown away her political future. However, I still think it's too early to say whether Palin has thrown away her chance at anything bigger. Palin is still very young for a politician and there is plenty of time for public perceptions to change.

Palin's biggest asset is that she has political talents that most other politicians would love to have. She is a great speaker (though her speech the other day was not her best), she connects with voters, and she inspires a lot of excitement in many parts of the conservative base. It is these talents that keep Palin relevant, at least in the short term. Whether she can use those talents to do anything larger is the bigger question.

Whether Palin was a benefit or a detriment to McCain's campaign is impossible to know. The link you provided is interesting, but I still think that Palin made little difference to the end result. While the charts in that link look at favorability, if you actually look at McCain's standing in the polls against Obama, he fell substantially after the financial crisis peaked in mid-September with the fall of Lehman Brothers.

More than anything, Palin's move probably illustrates that she is NOT being handled by experienced political veterans (I doubt any such advisors would have suggested resignation if she has bigger ambitions) and mostly marching to the beat of her own drum.

Even if Palin never makes it to higher political office, she could still be a force within the Republican Party and the conservative movement.

The public may very well be prepared to entrust th...

2009-07-04T13:48:09.506-04:00

The public may very well be prepared to entrust the presidency to a 3 year (or two and a half years in Palin's case). I recall that the public just declared a certain first time senator ready to be president.

The big question is really if they are prepared to entrust the presidency to Sarah Palin, who's not just any 3 year governor, but an exceptionally well known politician most people already have an opinion about. I think the answer is no.

You're right that Palin could raise a lot of money. She's the kind of candidate that makes a lot of people excited, but the problem is that I think the number of people who either actively dislike her or remain deeply skeptical is bigger.

A case could be made that Palin damaged McCain's campaign last year. See for example here. That's extremely rare for a VP candidate (the only other example I can think of would be Thomas Eagleton). McCain probably never had a big chance of winning, but Palin may have made the situation worse.

And now she resigns, out of the blue. The fact that Palin announced her resignation with a rambling and unrehearsed statement, probably only made the damage to her brand bigger.

Comments on Beyond The Polls: Gov. Sarah Palin's Mysterious Move

Tobias, Interesting comments. Right now, I think...

The public may very well be prepared to entrust th...