Beyond The Polls

Fun With Friedman

2011-06-03T09:25:00.003-04:00

Yes, it's time for another edition of the Tom Friedman Follies, where we look past the glibness and catchphrases and learn what The Smartest Man In The World has to say. Today, we deconstruct Friedman's comments on what he so cleverly calls "the bin Laden decade."

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/06/01/opinion/01friedman.html?ref=opinion

Visiting the Middle East last week, and then coming back to Washington, I am left with one overriding impression: Bin Laden really did a number on all of us.

Gee Tom, I'm glad to see the Times's travel budget was put to good use. That's one momentous conclusion you have there.

I am talking in particular about the Arab states, America and Israel — all of whom have deeper holes than ever to dig out of thanks to the Bin Laden decade, 2001 to 2011, and all of whom have less political authority than ever to make the hard decisions needed to get out of the holes.

If only American and Israel could be more like China and not worry about the idiots who populate the country, we could get that political authority back. Of course, the Arab states ARE more like China and it doesn't do them a whit of good.

Let’s start with the Arabs. In 2001, Osama bin Laden attacked the World Trade Center and the Pentagon. Just a few months later, in 2002, the U.N. issued the “Arab Human Development Report,” which described the very pathologies that produced Al Qaeda and prescribed remedies for overcoming them. The report, written by Arab experts, said the Arab states suffered from three huge deficits: a deficit of freedom and respect for human rights as the bases of good governance, a deficit of knowledge in the form of decent schooling and a deficit of women’s empowerment.

Wow, the Arab states have dysfunctional societies. This is the cutting edge insights you can only get through Tom Friedman and the UN.

Instead of America and the Arab world making that report their joint post-Bin Laden agenda, they ignored it. Washington basically gave the Arab dictators a free pass to tighten their vise grip on their people — as long as these Arab leaders arrested, interrogated and held the Islamic militants in their societies and eliminated them as a threat to us.

We'd really expect the leaders of the Arab world to press for their society to make liberalizing reforms? What planet do you live on? I also love how it is America's fault that these countries can't get their act together. Is Friedman saying the proper response to 9/11 in 2001 would have been to foment revolution in the Arab world rather than pursue terrorist groups? Somehow, I think this "solution" is not quite politically feasible. Of course, Tom Friedman is so far above the real world that this is irrelevant.

It wasn’t meant as a free pass, and we really did have a security problem with jihadists, and we really didn’t mean to give up on our freedom agenda — but Arab leaders, like Hosni Mubarak of Egypt, sensed where our priorities were. That is why Mubarak actually arrested the one Egyptian who dared to run against him for president in his last election, and he and the other Arab autocrats moved to install their sons as successors.

Gee, Mubarak was looking out for himself. I'm shocked. And what would Friedman have suggested the U.S. do? Actively force out Mubarak and allow the Muslim Brotherhood to win elections and reignite conflict with Israel? Oh, wait....

As the Arab leaders choked their people that much tighter, along came Facebook, Twitter and cellphone cameras, which enabled those people to share grievances, organize rebellions, lose their fear and expose their leaders: “Smile, your brutality is on Candid Camera.”

The world is flat, don't you know. If you don't believe me I have a couple of books on the subject.

That’s the good news. The challenging news is that because of the Bin Laden decade, these newly liberated Arab states are in an even deeper hole in terms of economic development, population growth and education. They each have a huge amount of catch-up to do that will require some painful economic and educational reforms.

Yeah, if it wasn't for bin Laden these states would be flowering liberal democracies.

But as one can quickly detect from a visit to Cairo, right now Egypt has a political vacuum and, if anything, is tending toward more populist, less-market-oriented economics. Yet, in return for infusions of cash, Egypt will probably have to accept some kind of I.M.F.-like austerity-reform package and slash government employment — just when unemployment and expectations are now sky high. Right now, no Egyptian party or leader has the authority that will be required to implement such reforms.

There's a shock. You get rid of the thirty year dictator, vow to replace him in a few months, and there's a vacuum? Egypt would be the first country in the history of humanity to try to appease the masses through populist reforms. What do you expect, Tom?

In America, President George W. Bush used the post-9/11 economic dip to push through a second tax cut we could not afford. He followed that with a Medicare prescription drug entitlement we cannot afford and started two wars in the wake of 9/11 without raising taxes to pay for them — all at a time when we should have been saving money in anticipation of the baby boomers’ imminent retirement. As such, our nation’s fiscal hole is deeper than ever and Republicans and Democrats — rather than coming together and generating the political authority needed for us to take our castor oil to compensate for our binge — are just demonizing one another.

Talking points copyright Democratic National Committee, 2004. We need to be China for a day so we can do things right and get rid of the Democrats and Republicans.

As the Israeli political theorist Yaron Ezrahi points out, governance is based on authority “that is generated in one of two ways — by trust or by fear. Both of those sources of authority are disintegrating right now.” The Arab leaders governed by fear, and their people are not afraid anymore. And the Western democracies governed by generating trust, but their societies today are more splintered than ever.

More splintered than ever? I tend to recall a conflict fought at places like Bull Run, Antietam, and Gettysburg. I guess that wasn't a real splinter, though.

Israel has the same problem. The combination of Yasir Arafat’s foolhardy decision to start a second intifada rather than embrace President Bill Clinton’s two-state peace plan, followed by the rise of Bin Laden, which diverted the U.S. from energetically pursuing the peace process, gave the Israeli right a free hand to expand West Bank settlements. There are now some 500,000 settlers in the West Bank and East Jerusalem.

How long has the peace process been with us? Does anybody seriously think that without bin Laden the peace process would have ended in success by now? Of course, those Israeli settlements are the only obstacle to peace.

Absent some amazing Palestinian peace overture, and maybe even with one, I do not see any Israeli leader with enough authority today to pull Israel out of the West Bank. So, for now, Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu and Bin Laden both win: In the short run, Bibi gets to keep the West Bank, with 300,000 Jews occupying 2.4 million Palestinians. And in the long run, Bin Laden helps to destroy Israel as a Jewish democracy.

Because we are expecting an amazing Palestinian peace offer any day. Maybe if the Palestinians would quit launching rockets at Israel and admit its right to exist, the Israeli leadership might have more wiggle room.

For all these reasons, I find myself asking the same question in Cairo, Washington and Jerusalem: “Who will tell the people?” Who will tell the people how deep the hole is that Bin Laden helped each of us dig over the last decade — and who will tell the people how hard and how necessary it will be to climb out?

Easy, the guy in the Times with the mustache, big head, and pensive look.

How The GOP Should Handle the Medicare Issue, Sound Bite Style

2011-06-02T13:21:00.003-04:00

President Obama: Paul Ryan's plan is bad for seniors. It's going to cut off funding for Medicare, and your medical treatment will be cut off and you'll be dying in the streets because Paul Ryan doesn't want you to get the care you need.

GOP Nominee: President Obama has offered no plan for fixing Medicare, so we can only assume that his plan is the status quo. However, the status quo is not an option. Left alone, Medicare will cost over 80% of GDP by 2030. As health care costs go up, fewer and fewer doctors will even accept Medicare patients. You are already seeing this. President Obama's plan is nothing than the effective abolition of Medicare.

It is conservatives that seek to preserve Medicare by making sure seniors get the assistance they need to get health care. We believe in this goal, but we also know we cannot afford to dedicate our entire economy to it. The only way to do this is to lower the cost of health care. The only way to do that is to give you, the consumer, the incentive to find the best value for you. We're so used to someone else paying the bill it will be shock at first, but add the voucher payments and the lower cost of care providers who actually have to compete for your business, and you'll be better off in the end. And yes, those who can will need to bear a greater responsibility for paying their own health care costs. We can save Medicare, but we'll have to learn to live in a different reality.

Can we improve on the Ryan Plan? Of course, and we'll do so. President Obama stands to do nothing and hope a committee in DC can lower costs. Unless you believe in the power of a central planning to make things more efficient, this is the same as abolishing Medicare, and we won't stand for it.

State of the Day - Michigan

2011-06-02T09:18:00.004-04:00

Michigan was originally frontier settled by Yankees who made the state overwhelmingly Republican through the 1920's. The state became an industrial center, first in lumber and then for automobiles, attracting immigrants from abroad and blacks from the South. Democrats surged here in the 1930's as unions flexed their muscles. Democrats dominated here for thirty years and built a large welfare state. The automobile industry collapsed in the 1970's and ever since, Michigan's big manufacturing economy has suffered. The state (with the notable exception of the City of Detroit) recovered as taxes were lowered and union membership declined in the 1980's and 1990's, helping the economy to diversify. However, the auto industry totally collapsed again in the 2000's and the state has essentially been in a recession since 2001. The big three auto companies collapsed under the weight of fuel effiency standards and big union contracts, finally ending in the bankruptcy of GM and Chrysler in 2008-2009. Democrats have a big base in what is left of the City of Detroit and the heavily unionized, suffering industrial towns, while Republicans dominate the rest of Outstate Michigan and the Upper Peninsula. The Detroit suburbs hold the balance of power. The balance usually tilts just a bit to the left of center, though Republicans remain very competitive.

2010 was a productive year for Michigan Republicans. They won the open Governor's Mansion easily and took two House seats. For 2012, the GOP aims to win the state for its Presidential nominee and defeat Democratic Senator Debbie Stabenow. Neither will be easy.

Michigan lost population during the last decade and lost a House seat. Republicans will control the redistricting process. They would obviously like to draw out a Democrat, but it will not be easy because the current plan is already a Republican gerrymander. The missing seat should probably come from the Detroit area, but presumably they will need to retain two black majority districts. The area is surrounded by two senior Democrats in safe seats and two marginal seats. Unless Republicans are willing to end the career of Sander Levin or John Dingell, their most likely move would be to target the marginal Ninth District currently held by Democrat Gary Peters. The latest proposal does indeed place Peters in the same district with Levin.

Michigan – 16 Electoral Votes

Michigan has long been near the middle of the American political spectrum, but just enough to the left for George W. Bush to lose it twice while he won narrow national victories. Barack Obama won 57% here, four points better than his national showing. This may the one state where Obama’s bailout of General Motors and Chrysler would actually help him. The Republicans could easily win here, however, if they won a decent sized national victory.

Mitt Romney’s father was Governor here, and that could give Romney a boost if he is the nominee. He would certainly be favored in a primary. Romney won the 2008 primary, but only by 39%-30% over John McCain. The state's open primary would probably work against Sarah Palin and her ilk. LEAN DEMOCRAT.

Governor – Rick Snyder (R)

The economy fishtailed for eight years under Democrat Jennifer Granholm. Democrats offered voters Virg Bernero, who offered more of the same. He was crushed 58%-40% by Snyder. Michigan tilts Democratic, but the problems here are so endemic Snyder may get a decently long rope to try to pull the state out of the depths. TOSSUP REPUBLICAN.

Senior Senator – Carl Levin (D)

Levin may see some competition in 2014 if it is a huge Republican year, but otherwise this seat is his for as long as he wants it. LIKELY DEMOCRAT.

Junior Senator – Debbie Stabenow (D)

Stabenow has an advantage, but will probably see strong competition, especially if Barack Obama continues to drag down his party in 2012. Tea Partier Chad Dewey has already announced his candidacy, but Republicans will have to do better than that. Libertarian Scotty Boman is considering the race but he would be a long shot as well. Republicans are currently hoping to recruit Rep. Thaddeus McCotter. LEAN DEMOCRAT.

House 1 – Dan Benishek (R)

This marginal Upper Peninsula/Northern Michigan seat elected pro-life Democrat Bart Stupak for nine terms before he retired after his controversial role in enabling the health care legislation to pass. This district needs to pick up 63,000 people. TOSSUP REPUBLICAN.

House 2 – Bill Huizenga (R)

Huizenga easily won this mostly Republican Western Michigan seat when it came open in 2010. It needs to pick up 27,000 people, which won't change anything. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 3 – Justin Amash (R)

Amash is considered a star by many conservatives. He should be fine in this Republican leaning Grand Rapids seat, but his ideological approach may get him in trouble in a Democratic year. His district needs only 28,000 people, which should keep his district friendly. LIKELY REPUBLICAN.

House 4 - Dave Camp (R)

The new Ways and Means Chairman has iced this marginal Central Michigan seat, even in bad Republican years. Given his position, redistricters won't let anything happen to him. His seat needs 40,000 people. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 5 – Dale Kildee (D)

The Flint based seat needs 71,000 people. While the seat is overwhelmingly Democratic, Kildee only got 53% in 2010. He is a prime target for redistricting. TOSSUP DEMOCRAT.

House 6 – Fred Upton (R)

Democrats failed to seriously contest this marginal Southwest Michigan seat in the boom Democratic years. Upton should continue on with 51,000 new people. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 7 – Tim Walberg (R)

Walberg held this district for one term, beating a moderate Republican in the primary in 2006. He lost to Democrat Mark Schauer in 2008 but beat him 50%-45% in 2010. Walberg was way too conservative for this swing Southern Michigan seat the first time, and may prove to be again. The seat needs to pick up 44,000 people, which may give the GOP the opportunity to help him. TOSSUP REPUBLICAN.

House 8 - Mike Rogers (R)

Like Upton, Rogers easily survived two bad years in a marginal district and is safe going forward. The seat needs only 18,000 people. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 9 – Gary Peters (D)

Peters won this marginal suburban Detroit district in 2008 with a smashing 52%-43% victory over Republican incumbent Joe Knollenberg. He survived 50%-47% in 2010 thanks to a ridiculously bad Republican candidate. Peters is in enough trouble as is. He also has a redistricing problem due to his caucasian ethnicity, lack of seniority, and party. he is most likely to lose his seat should redistricters eliminate a Detroit area seat. As of right now Peters would need 54,000 people. The latest Republican proposal essentially eliminates this district and places Peters in a primary with Sander Levin. TOSSUP DEMOCRAT.

House 10 – Candice Miller (R)

Miller is becoming a force in the House Republican Conference and has had no real competition in this Republican leaning Thumb district. The seat has grown faster than any in the state and is actually about 1,000 people over the equal population standard. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 11 – Thaddeus McCotter (R)

McCotter barely beat a poor candidate in 2008 but rebounded to 59% in the big Republican year of 2010. The Suburban Detroit seat needs only 6,000 people. Republicans would ideally like to shore up this very marginal district. LIKELY REPUBLICAN.

House 12 – Sander Levin (D)

This heavily Democratic suburban Detroit seat needs 90,000 people. Levin's best asset is his seniority on the Ways and Means Committee. Republicans are currently proposing placing Levin in the same seat as Ninth District Democrat Gary Peters, a race in whihc Levin would be favored. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

House 13 – Hansen Clarke (D)

Clarke won this seat by defeating Carolyn Cheeks "Kwame's Mother" Kilpatrick in the primary. Republicans don't exist in the City of Detroit. The seat has lost 9% of its population in the last decade and needs 118,000 new people. I would still expect two black majority districts to survive, so I would expect to see Clarke in Congress in 2013. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

House 14 – John Conyers (D)

Conyers easily survived his wife's felony conviction for taking bribes. This Detroit seat needs 103,000 people, but like Clarke he is likely to survive because of the need to keep two black majority districts. Republicans will not be a factor. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

House 15 – John Dingell (D)

Dingell had an actual race in this very Democratic Suburban Detroit/Ann Arbor seat, but he won 57%-40%. Dingell is unlikely to have problems in redistricting. For one thing, his seat needs the relatively small amount of 24,000 people. Secondly, Dingell is a legendary legislator and a senior figure on the Energy & Commerce Committee. This makes him valuable to local officials, and redistricters will most likely turn their attention to Peters instead. The only change for Dingell will be his district number. SEAT ELIMINATED.

State of the Day - Massachusetts

2011-06-01T21:46:00.000-04:00

Formed in a moment of religious reform and fundamentalism, Massachusetts's role in manufacturing and overseas trade made it the early economic powerhouse of the United States. The state has a rich intellectual tradition, spread by Yankee settlers whose influence can still be seen across the country, especially in the Upper Midwest. After mass Irish immigration began in the mid-19th century, Massachusetts politics was a battle between Yankee Protestant Republicans and Irish Catholic Democrats for the better part of a century. Back then, it was the Republican Party that carried the torch of Massachusetts' liberal progressive tradition. Irish Catholics grew in number and by the mid-20th century, they had turned Massachusetts into one of the most Democratic states. The Kennedy dynasty helped influence Protestants to vote Democratic as well. Massachusetts was the only state to vote for George McGovern, the state has generally pursued liberal policies (remember Willie Horton and weekend furloughs?), and the most notable politicians here have all been confirmed liberals: Michael Dukakis, Edward Kennedy, John Kerry. However, the economy collapsed in the late 1980's and the state elected fiscally conservative Republican William Weld as Governor. Over the next sixteen years under four Republican Governors, the economy improved but the state continued to be quite liberal, even passing a preview of ObamaCare (RonmneyCare, if you will) on the state level in 2006. The economy has slowed down again over the last ten years and Massachusetts lost another seat in the 2010 Census. There is a consensus here on cultural liberalism and the state was the first to approve gay marriage. While this was controversial at first, the policy has generally been confirmed by subsequent elections. Massachusetts is now almost a unanimously Democratic state, with the notable exception of Republican Senator Scott Brown's victory in the January 2010 special election to replace Edward Kennedy.

In 2010, Democratic Governor Deval Patrick found himself in trouble with very low approval ratings. However, opposition to him split and Patrick managed to improve his standing somewhat, winning with 49%. Democrats continued to maintain a lock on the House delegation. Barack Obama will obviously win Massachusetts in 2012. The big race here will involve Scott Brown's attempt to win a full term in the Senate.

Massachusetts lost one seat in redistricting. The Democrats will control redistricting, but the process will be tricky. Population growth has been relatively uniform. If somebody retires or runs for the Senate, their district will probably be broken up and apportioned to other members. This is especially true of Michael Capuano's district, which is centered around Boston, touches four separate districts, and has the smallest population. You have to figure safe seats will remain for senior Democrats Ed Markey and Barney Frank. Tenth District Rep. Bill Keating is the most junior and has the least Democratic district, but it includes the Cape Cod area and will be difficult to dismantle. Barring a retirment, the outcome will have more to do with local politics on Beacon Hill than anything else.

President – 11 Electoral Votes

Barack Obama did a tad worse here than you might have expected in 2008, which I ascribe to the state’s disgust with the very similar Deval Patrick. Even so, Obama won 62% and I cannot imagine that Massachusetts will be competitive in 2012. The primary here will be on March 6, barring a change in the law, which will probably prove too late to matter. If it does, one presumes the state will favor Mitt Romney, though his 51%-41% win here over John McCain in 2008 was hardly impressive. Still, Massachusetts is not likely to vote for an identifiable social conservative, so it's hard to see someone like Sarah Palin beating Romney. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

Governor – Deval Patrick (D)

After several missteps, Patrick entered 2010 with dismal job approval ratings. However, he got a huge break with the entry of former Democrat Timothy Cahill as an Independent, effectively splitting the anti-Patrick vote. Still, Patrick managed to pick himself up enough to win with 49%, so he probably would have won anyway. Patrick's four immediate predecessors did not make it to the end of a second term, so I had to look and see if the state had passed a term limit law since Michael Dukakis's time. It has not. If Republicans could not get Patrick in 2010, it will be hard to do so in 2014. LEAN DEMOCRAT.

Senior Senator – John Kerry (D)

Kerry’s longtime colleague, Edward Kennedy, spent the first eighteen years of his career as something of a dilettante in the Senate. Only after finally losing his ambitions for the White House did Kennedy dedicate himself to the Senate and become a legend in that body. Kerry was not a particularly accomplished Senator for four terms, angling first for the White House and then Secretary of State. Still finding himself in the Senate, he seems newly determined to become a major player and active legislator in the Senate, much like Kennedy. He’s certainly safe in Massachusetts in 2014. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

Junior Senator – Scott Brown (R)

Brown’s January 2010 victory to replace the late Edward Kennedy was a true "Bloomberg" (a perfect political storm allowing a candidate to win who otherwise would have no chance). First, the election would not have even occurred had Massachusetts Democrats not messed with the law in 2004 to prevent Mitt Romney from appointing a successor to John Kerry. As it happened, the election took place at a low point for the Democratic Party. It also coincided with the culmination of the debate on the health care bill, which was unpopular even in Massachusetts. Coincidentally, Brown could maximize that issue since he would be the 41st, filibuster holding vote against the bill in the Senate. Brown also came up against a woefully horrible performance by Democrat Martha Coakley, who memorably thought Red Sox hero Curt Schilling was a Yankee. To top it off, Brown was a good candidate himself.

Brown will still be a good candidate in 2012, but the rest of the perfect storm should have dissipated. Brown has done everything right and has given himself a chance, continuing to poll well. So far, Democrats have produced only two weak candidates: Newton Mayor Setti Warren and Alan Khazei. Democrats hope to find a better candidate, such as Reps. Mike Capuano, Stephen Lynch, and Ed Markey, or Consumer Protection Czare Elizabeth Warren. If Democrats can attract one of these candidates, Brown faces long odds to win in 2012. LEAN DEMOCRAT.

House 1 – John Olver (D)

This West Massachusetts seat is safely Democratic. The seat needs to pick up 76,000 people, but with its location it will be difficult to draw the districts in a way that does not leave Olver in good shape. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

House 2 – Richard Neal (D)

This Springfield based seat is not totally safe for the Democrats, and Neal sank to 57% this year. It needs to pick up 63,000 people. LIKELY DEMOCRAT.

House 3 – Jim McGovern (D)

See the previous entry, but substitute Worcester for Springfield and it needs 67,000 people. LIKELY DEMOCRAT.

House 4 – Barney Frank (D)

Frank shockingly had to campaign for this overwhelmingly Democratic Suburban Boston/South Massachusetts seat, thanks to a horrible Democratic year and his own embarrassing role in the financial collapse. His 54%-43% was by far his worst during his long tenure. His seat needs 56,000 people, but with his seniority redistricters won't leave him out in the cold. Still, he could continue to see races if he remains a figure of controversy. LEAN DEMOCRAT.

House 5 – Niki Tsongas (D)

This Lowell based seat is not hopeless for Republicans and Tsongas was not impressive in winning it in a 2007 special election. While her fundraising was weak, doubly so considering her pedigree (she is the widow of former Senator Paul Tsongas), she survived 55%-42% thanks in large part to a terrible Republican candidate. Her seat needs 70,000 and she will be doing some suppliant lobbying on Beacon Hill this year. LEAN DEMOCRAT.

House 6 – John Tierney (D)

Some national Republicans talked up this mostly Democratic Northeast Massachusetts seat after Tierney's wife pleaded guilty to tax fraud. Republicans nominated a guy who had made statements that made him appear to be a "birther", which didn't help. Tierney won 57%-43%. This seat needs 70,000 people. LIKELY DEMOCRAT.

House 7 – Edward Markey (D)

This heavily Democratic North Boston based seat needs 74,000 people. Markey is a senior figure on the Energy & Commerce Committee, so redistricters will make sure he is okay, leaving him free to spend too much time on your television screens this fall. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

House 8 – Michael Capuano (D)

I used to live in this Cambridge based district. I was a Democrat then, and I would guarantee that I was in the right 10% of the political spectrum here. The seat needs 100,000 people, and would probably be the easiest in the state to eliminate. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

House 9 – Stephen Lynch (D)

South Bawston isn't a very good place for Republicans. This seat is relatively populous, needing only 54,000 people. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

House 10 – Bill Keating (D)

This Suburban Boston/Cape Cod seat is the most Republican in Massachusetts, but it still leans Democratic. Scott Brown won this district in a landslide, however. Keating ran as a pretty generic Democrat for this open seat last year. The Republican candidate had some personal issues and could not unite his party. Keating pulled off an unimpressive 47%-42% victory. Keating should face tough competiton next time as well. The seat needs to pick up 77,000 people, but its location in the far eastern part of the state makes it difficult to eliminate. SEAT ELIMINATED.

On Leadership

2011-06-01T19:27:00.002-04:00

Last Sunday on the next to last day of the regular session, the Texas House of Representatives debated the final version of its budget. As one might expect from a body with a 101-49 GOP majority, the Legislature dealt with a shortfall of over $20 billion without raising taxes. While about $10 billion of the difference was made up with accounting gimmicks and postponing certain appropriations, the budget involved serious cuts, particularly in the area of public education.

Near the end of the debate, a freshman Republican from Wichita Falls named Lanham Lyne rose to speak. He said that the education cuts were unpalatable and he didn't believe they were the best thing for the State of Texas. Lyne said as a candidate, he was frankly ignorant as to the state's budgetary issues and how education worked in the state. His voters wanted spending cuts, but Lyne wondered aloud if his voters understood the difference between state and federal spending. He suggested they did not, and this ignorance was leading to poor state policymaking. Still, Lyne said his voters wanted spending cuts. Thus, he felt obliged to vote for the budget.

I greatly respect Lyne for being so honest. The sentiment is somewhat widespread among legislative Republicans, even though nobody wants to admit it. We think of our elected officials as leaders, but too often today this is not the case. Watching the Texas Legislature in action, one has seen Republicans running scared from primary voters and far right special interest groups. I suspect quite a few Republicans had issues with what was going on, but nobody said anything.

This isn't leadership. Yes, legislators must represent the interests of their constituents. But a legislator must know those interests by knowing his district. He cannot simply take uninformed slogans as use them as an excuse to not act in their best interests. A legislator should not commit political suicide, but neither should a legislator be afraid to stand up and explain why he acted in the best interest of his constituents.

Leaders aren't scared of their constitutents, and they aren't scared of any interest groups. Leaders have the courage to know when not to take the easy way out, but when to stand up and defend themselves for doing the right thing. We don't have enough leadership in this country right now, and we are the worse for it.This is the rest of the post

State of the Race - 5/28/11

2011-05-31T19:35:00.002-04:00

President Obama loses a point of his post-Osama bounce. We also see another state agree on a map for the 2012 House races

Off to the races!

President

Here is our weekly look at the field for the Republican nomination. Rick Perry is the big mover this week as he expressed his first direct potential in the race. I still think he will not run, however.

The Contenders

1. Mitt Romney of Massachusetts
2. Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota
3. Jon Huntsman of Utah

Dark Horses

4. Sarah Palin of Alaska
5. Representative Michele Bachmann of Minnesota
6. Governor Rick Perry of Texas
7. Herman Cain of Georgia
8. Governor Chris Christie of New Jersey
9. Newt Gingrich of Georgia
10. Rudy Giuliani of New York
11. Representative Ron Paul of Texas
12. Representative Paul Ryan of Wisconsin

President Obama sees his approval rating fall back to 52%. These results continue to show a race to close to call, but with President Obama's re-election the most likely outcome with a 332-206 Electoral College victory. Potential outcomes range from a President Obama victory with 357 Electoral Votes to a Mitt Romney victory with 287 Electoral Votes. The most likely outcome shows a virtual repeat of 2008, except that Indiana and North Carolina are project to go Republican. The closest states are the current projection is Florida and Virginia.

Safe Obama (84)
DC
Hawaii
Illinois
Maryland
Massachusetts
New York
Rhode Island
Vermont

Likely Obama (81)
California
Connecticut
Delaware
Maine
Washington

Lean Obama (86)
Michigan
Minnesota
New Hampshire
New Jersey
New Mexico
Oregon
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin

Toss Up Obama (81)
Colorado
Florida
Iowa
Nevada
Ohio
Virginia

Toss Up Romney (25)
Missouri
North Carolina

Lean Romney (55)
Arizona
Georgia
Indiana
Montana
South Carolina
West Virginia

Likely Romney (83)
Arkansas
Kentucky
Louisiana
Mississippi
North Dakota
South Dakota
Tennessee
Texas

Safe Romney (43)
Alabama
Alaska
Idaho
Kansas
Nebraska
Oklahoma
Utah
Wyoming

Popular Vote: Pres. Obama 51.4%, Romney 48.6%
Electoral Vote: Pres. Obama 332, Romney 206

Governors

No changes this week.

Fourteen gubernatorial contests will take place over the next two years. Kentucky, Louisiana, and Mississippi will hold contests in 2011. The states listed below will hold elections in 2012. New Hampshire and Vermont have two year terms for its Governor, so the Granite and Green Mountain States will have a 2012 contest despite just conducting an election. The West Virginia Supreme Court declared that there must be a special election in October to fill the final year of the unexpired term of Joe Manchin. A regularly scheduled election will follow in 2012. We will list the special election until its completion, at which time it will be replaced by the regular election.

Republicans are assured at least a split of Governor's Mansions after 2012, as they lead 25-11 in races not coming up for election in the next two years. Right now we predict the Republicans to gain between a range of two and three Govenrnor's Mansions, with the most likely outcome being two.

Safe Democrat (3)
Delaware (Jack Markell)
Kentucky (Steve Beshear)
West Virginia special (Earl Ray Tomblin)

Likely Democrat (0)

Lean Democrat (2)
Missouri (Jay Nixon)
Vermont (Peter Shumlin)

Toss Up Democrat (1)
New Hampshire (John Lynch)

Toss Up Republican (0)

Lean Republican (3)
Indiana (Mitch Daniels retiring)
North Carolina (Bev Perdue)
Washington (Christine Gregoire)

Likely Republican (1)
Montana (Brian Schweitzer retiring)

Safe Republican (3)
Louisiana (Bobby Jindal)
Mississippi (Haley Barbour retiring)
North Dakota (Jack Dalrymple)
Utah (Gary Herbert)

Republicans: 33
Democrats: 17

Senate

No changes this week.

Democrats will be defending the seats they won in the big Democratic year of 2006, so they start on the defensive. Republicans lead the seats not up for election 37-30. We project a gain of three Republican seats, which would split the Senate in half with control being decided by the new Vice President. We see a range of anywhere from a push to an eight seat Republican pickup. Note this is basically in a neutral climate, so the advantage shown is a Republican structural advantage based on the cycle of seats up for election. There are quite a few Democratic seats that could be very difficult for them if they continue to struggle with public opinion, and that shows up in the large number of seats in the "Lean Democrat" columnn. In other words, if the climate is as toxic as it was in 2010 the Republicans would probably win all of those "Lean Democratic" seats and pick up double digit seats.

Safe Democrat (4)
Delaware (Tom Carper)
Hawaii (Daniel Akaka retiring)
New York (Kirsten Gillibrand)
Vermont (Bernie Sanders)

Likely Democrat (4)
California (Dianne Feinstein)
Connecticut (Joe Lieberman retiring)
Maryland (Ben Cardin)
Rhode Island (Sheldon Whitehouse)

Lean Democrat (7)
Florida (Bill Nelson)
Massachusetts (Scott Brown)
Michigan (Debbie Stabenow)
Minnesota (Amy Klobuchar)
New Jersey (Robert Menendez)
Pennsylvania (Robert Casey, Jr.)
Washington (Maria Cantwell)

Toss Up Democrat (5)
Nebraska (Ben Nelson)
Nevada (Dean Heller)
New Mexico (Jeff Bingaman retiring)
Ohio (Sherrod Brown)
Wisconsin (Herb Kohl retiring)

Toss Up Republican (3)
Missouri (Claire McCaskill)
Virginia (Jim Webb retiring)
West Virginia (Joe Manchin)

Lean Republican (4)
Arizona (Jon Kyl retiring)
Mississippi (Roger Wicker)
Montana (Jon Tester)
Tennessee (Bob Corker)

Likely Republican (1)
Maine (Olympia Snowe)

Safe Republican (5)
Indiana (Richard Lugar)
North Dakota (Kent Conrad retiring)
Texas (Kay Bailey Hutchison retiring)
Utah (Orrin Hatch)
Wyoming (John Barrasso)

Democrats: 50
Republicans: 50

House

This map includes the new map in Louisiana, joining Arkansas, Indiana, and Iowa as states that have completed redistricting. The rest of the states are projections. Missouri has also complete redistricting but I have not reviewed the map yet.

Here's how I handle redistricting. To simplify things, I am going to refer to districts by number as if they were constant. This will lead to reported "pickups" for parties that are just district renumberings, but I think doing it this way will help keep things straight. For example, New Jersey is on track to lose a seat. We will "eliminate" the highest numbered district in the state, NJ-13 held by Albio Sires. However, Sires will almost certainly have a district he can win, it will just have a different number. For argument's sake, let's say that Leonard Lance, a Republican currently representing the Seventh District, is effectively drawn out when his district is eliminated and parceled out among other districts, and Sires's district is renamed the Seventh. We will say that Sires's seat was eliminated but that the Democrats picked up the Seventh District. This will even out after we factor for all the states.

Under this format, the following districts will be eliminated.

IL-19 (John Shimkus)
IA-5 (Steve King)
LA-7 (Charles Boustany)
MA-10 (Bill Keating)
MI-15 (John Dingell)
MO-9 (Blaine Leutkemeyer)
NJ-13 (Albio Sires)
NY-28 (Louise Slaughter)
NY-29 (Tom Reed)
OH-17 (Tim Ryan)
OH-18 (Bob Gibbs)
PA-19 (Todd Platts)

That is seven Republicans and four Democrats. Expect most of these members to show up in other districts come 2013. For instance, Steve King will run in IA-4 as the current incumbent there, Tom Latham, runs against Leonard Boswell in IA-3. These seats will be replaced by eleven new seats in other states. Those will be listed in italics. To help keep this all straight, we are going to break with tradition and list every seat, even in safe districts.

This gives the Republicans a six seat pickup as a base scenario, primarily due to redistricting. We envision a range, depending on the climate, of anywhere between a 38 seat Democratic pickup and a 42 seat Republican pickup. There are about 70 seats that form the potential battlefield for the 2012 elections.

Safe Democrat (101)
AL-7 (Terri Sewell)
AZ-4 (Ed Pastor)
CA-1 (Mike Thompson)
CA-5 (Doris Matsui)
CA-6 (Lynn Woolsey)
CA-7 (George Miller)
CA-8 (Nancy Pelosi)
CA-9 (Barbara Lee)
CA-10 (John Garamendi)
CA-12 (Jackie Speier)
CA-13 (Pete Stark)
CA-14 (Anna Eshoo)
CA-15 (Mike Honda)
CA-16 (Zoe Lofgren)
CA-17 (Sam Farr)
CA-27 (Brad Sherman)
CA-28 (Howard Berman)
CA-29 (Adam Schiff)
CA-30 (Henry Waxman)
CA-31 (Xavier Becerra)
CA-32 (Judy Chu)
CA-33 (Karen Bass)
CA-34 (Lucille Roybal-Allard)
CA-35 (Maxine Waters)
CA-36 special (VACANT)
CA-37 (Laura Richardson)
CA-38 (Grace Napolitano)
CA-39 (Linda Sanchez)
CA-43 (Joe Baca)
CA-53 (Susan Davis)
CO-1 (Diana DeGette)
CT-1 (John Larson)
CT-3 (Rosa DeLauro)
FL-3 (Corrine Brown)
FL-11 (Kathy Castor)
FL-17 (Frederica Wilson)
FL-19 (Ted Deutch)
FL-20 (Debbie Wasserman Schultz)
FL-23 (Alcee Hastings)
GA-4 (Hank Johnson)
GA-5 (John Lewis)
GA-13 (David Scott)
HI-2 (Mazie Hirono retiring)
IL-1 (Bobby Rush)
IL-2 (Jesse Jackson, Jr.)
IL-3 (Dan Lipinski)
IL-4 (Luis Gutierrez)
IL-5 (Mike Quigley)
IL-7 (Danny Davis)
IL-9 (Jan Schakowsky)
LA-2 (Cedric Richmond)
MD-2 (Dutch Ruppersberger)
MD-4 (Donna Edwards)
MD-5 (Steny Hoyer)
MD-7 (Elijah Cummings)
MD-8 (Chris Van Hollen)
MA-1 (John Olver)
MA-7 (Edward Markey)
MA-8 (Michael Capuano)
MA-9 (Stephen Lynch)
MI-12 (Sander Levin)
MI-13 (Hansen Clarke)
MI-14 (John Conyers)
MN-5 (Keith Ellison)
MS-2 (Bennie Thompson)
MO-1 (William Lacy Clay)
NV-1 (Shelley Berkley retiring)
NJ-1 (Robert Andrews)
NJ-8 (Bill Pascrell)
NJ-9 (Steven Rothman)
NJ-10 (Donald Payne)
NY-5 (Gary Ackerman)
NY-6 (Gregory Meeks)
NY-7 (Joseph Crowley)
NY-8 (Jerrold Nadler)
NY-10 (Edolphus Towns)
NY-11 (Yvette Clark)
NY-12 (Nydia Velazquez)
NY-14 (Carolyn Maloney)
NY-15 (Charles Rangel)
NY-16 (Jose Serrano)
NY-17 (Eliot Engel)
NY-18 (Nita Lowey)
NC-12 (Melvin Watt)
OH-11 (Marcia Fudge)
OR-3 (Earl Blumenauer)
PA-1 (Robert Brady)
PA-2 (Chaka Fattah)
SC-6 (James Clyburn)
TN-9 (Steve Cohen)
TX-9 (Al Green)
TX-18 (Sheila Jackson Lee)
TX-20 (Charles Gonzalez)
TX-29 (Gene Green)
TX-30 (Eddie Bernice Johnson)
VT-AL (Peter Welch)
VA-3 (Bobby Scott)
VA-8 (Jim Moran)
WA-7 (Jim McDermott)
WI-2 (Tammy Baldwin)
WI-4 (Gwen Moore)

Likely Democrat (28)
CA-18 (Dennis Cardoza)
CA-23 (Lois Capps)
CA-51 (Bob Filner)
CO-2 (Jared Polis)
CT-2 (Joe Courtney)
DE-AL (John Carney)
HI-1 (Colleeen Hanabusa)
IL-12 (Jerry Costello)
IN-1 (Peter Visclosky)
IN-7 (Andre Carson)
ME-1 (Chellie Pingree)
MD-3 (John Sarbanes)
MA-2 (Richard Neal)
MA-3 (Jim McGovern)
MA-6 (John Tierney)
MN-4 (Betty McCollum)
NM-3 (Ben Ray Lujan)
NY-9 (Anthony Weiner)
NY-21 (Paul Tonko)
NY-27 (Brian Higgins)
NC-1 (G.K. Butterfield)
NC-4 (David Price)
OH-9 (Marcy Kaptur)
RI-1 (David Cicilline)
RI-2 (Jim Langevin)
TX-16 (Silvestre Reyes)
WA-1 (Jay Inslee)
WA-6 (Norm Dicks)

Lean Democrat (22)
AR-4 (Mike Ross)
GA-12 (John Barrow)
KY-3 (John Yarmuth)
ME-2 (Michael Michaud)
MA-4 (Barney Frank)
MA-5 (Niki Tsongas)
MN-7 (Collin Peterson)
MO-5 (Emanuel Cleaver)
NJ-6 (Dave Pallone)
NM-1 (Martin Heinrich retiring)
NY-2 (Steve Israel)
NY-4 (Carolyn McCarthy)
NC-13 (Brad Miller)
OH-13 (Betty Sutton)
OR-1 (David Wu)
PA-13 (Allyson Schwartz)
PA-14 (Mike Doyle)
PA-17 (Tim Holden)
TN-5 (Jim Cooper)
TX-15 (Ruben Hinojosa)
TX-28 (Henry Cuellar)
WA-9 (Adam Smith)
WV-3 (Nick Rahall)

Toss Up Democrat (36)
AZ-7 (Raul Grijalva)
CA-20 (Jim Costa)
CA-47 (Loretta Sanchez)
CO-7 (Ed Perlmutter)
CT-4 (Jim Himes)
CT-5 (Chris Murphy retiring)
GA-2 (Sanford Bishop)
IL-10 (Robert Dold)
IA-1 (Bruce Braley)
IA-2 (Dave Loebsack)
MI-5 (Dale Kildee)
MI-9 (Gary Peters)
MN-1 (Tim Walz)
MO-3 (Russ Carnahan)
MN-8 (Chip Cravaack)
NV-3 (Joe Heck)
NV-4 (NEW)
NH-2 (Charlie Bass)
NJ-12 (Rush Holt)
NY-1 (Tim Bishop)
NY-22 (Maurice Hinchey)
NY-25 (Ann Marie Buerkle)
NC-7 (Mike McIntyre)
NC-8 (Larry Kissell)
NC-11 (Heath Shuler)
OH-10 (Dennis Kucinich)
OK-2 (Dan Boren)
OR-4 (Peter DeFazio)
OR-5 (Kurt Schrader)
PA-12 (Mark Critz)
TX-25 (Lloyd Doggett)
VA-11 (Gerald Connolly)
WA-2 (Rick Larsen)
WA-10 (NEW)
WI-3 (Ron Kind)
WI-7 (Sean Duffy)

Toss Up Republican (44)
AZ-1 (Paul Gosar)
AZ-5 (David Schweikert)
AZ-8 (Gabrielle Gifffords)
CA-3 (Dan Lungren)
CA-11 (Jerry McNerney)
CA-26 (David Dreier)
CA-45 (Mary Bono Mack)
CO-3 (Scott Tipton)
FL-12 (Dennis Ross)
FL-22 (Allen West)
FL-25 (David Rivera)
IL-8 (Joe Walsh)
IL-14 (Randy Hultgren)
IL-17 (Bobby Schilling)
IA-3 (Leonard Boswell)
KY-6 (Ben Chandler)
MI-1 (Dan Benishek)
MI-7 (Tim Walberg)
MN-6 (Michele Bachmann)
NH-1 (Frank Guinta)
NJ-3 (Jon Runyan)
NY-13 (Mike Grimm)
NY-19 (Nan Hayworth)
NY-20 (Christopher Gibson)
NY-23 (Bill Owens)
NY-24 (Richard Hanna)
NC-2 (Renee Ellmers)
OH-1 (Steve Chabot)
OH-6 (Bill Johnson)
OH-15 (Steve Stivers)
OH-16 (Jim Renacci)
PA-4 (Jason Altmire)
PA-7 (Patrick Meehan)
PA-8 (Michael Fitzpatrick)
PA-11 (Lou Barletta)
PA-15 (Charlie Dent)
SD-AL (Kristi Noem)
TX-23 (Quico Canseco)
TX-27 (Blake Farenthold)
UT-2 (Jim Matheson)
VA-5 (Robert Hurt)
WA-3 (Jaime Herrera)
WA-8 (Dave Reichert)
WI-8 (Reid Ribble)

Lean Republican (25)
AZ-3 (Ben Quayle)
AR-1 (Rick Crawford)
AR-2 (Tim Griffin)
CA-44 (Ken Calvert)
CA-50 (Brian Bilbray)
CO-4 (Cory Gardner)
FL-2 (Steve Southerland)
FL-8 (Daniel Webster)
GA-8 (Austin Scott)
IL-11 (Adam Kinzinger)
IN-2 (Joe Donnelly retiring)
IN-9 (Todd Young)
KS-3 (Kevin Yoder)
MN-3 (Erik Paulsen)
NM-2 (Steve Pearce)
NY-26 (Kathy Hochul)
NV-2 special (VACANT)
PA-3 (Mike Kelly)
PA-6 (Jim Gerlach)
PA-10 (Thomas Marino)
SC-2 (Joe Wilson)
SC-5 (Mick Mulvaney)
VA-2 (Scott Rigell)
VA-9 (Morgan Griffith)
WV-1 (David McKinley)

Likely Republican (20)
AL-2 (Martha Roby)
AL-3 (Mike Rogers)
CA-2 (Wally Herger)
CA-24 (Elton Gallegly)
CA-48 (John Campbell)
FL-24 (Sandy Adams)
FL-26 (NEW)
ID-1 (Raul Labrador)
IN-8 (Larry Bucshon)
MD-1 (Andy Harris)
MI-3 (Justin Amash)
MI-11 (Thaddeus McCotter)
MS-1 (Alan Nunnelee)
MO-2 (Todd Akin retiring)
MO-4 (Vicky Hartzler)
MT-AL (Denny Rehberg retiring)
NJ-7 (Leonard Lance)
OH-12 (Pat Tiberi)
TN-8 (Stephen Fincher)
VA-7 (Eric Cantor)

Safe Republican (158)
AL-1 (Jo Bonner)
AL-4 (Robert Aderholt)
AL-5 (Mo Brooks)
AL-6 (Spencer Bachus)
AK-AL (Don Young)
AZ-2 (Trent Franks)
AZ-6 (Jeff Flake retiring)
AZ-9 (NEW)
AR-3 (Steve Womack)
CA-4 (Tom McClintock)
CA-19 (Jeff Denham)
CA-21 (Devin Nunes)
CA-22 (Kevin McCarthy)
CA-25 (Buck McKeon)
CA-40 (Ed Royce)
CA-41 (Jerry Lewis)
CA-42 (Gary Miller)
CA-46 (Dana Rohrabacher)
CA-49 (Darrell Issa)
CA-52 (Duncan D. Hunter)
CO-5 (Doug Lamborn)
CO-6 (Mike Coffman)
FL-1 (Jeff Miller)
FL-4 (Ander Crenshaw)
FL-5 (Richard Nugent)
FL-6 (Cliff Stearns)
FL-7 (John Mica)
FL-9 (Gus Bilirakis)
FL-10 (Bill Young)
FL-13 (Vern Buchanan)
FL-14 (Connie Mack)
FL-15 (Bill Posey)
FL-16 (Tom Rooney)
FL-18 (Ileana Ros-Lehtinen)
FL-21 (Mario Diaz-Balart)
FL-27 (NEW)
GA-1 (Jack Kingston)
GA-3 (Lynn Westmoreland)
GA-6 (Tom Price)
GA-7 (Rob Woodall)
GA-9 (Tom Graves)
GA-10 (Paul Broun)
GA-11 (Phil Gingrey)
GA-14 (NEW)
ID-2 (Mike Simpson)
IL-6 (Peter Roskam)
IL-13 (Judy Biggert)
IL-15 (Tim Johnson)
IL-16 (Don Manzullo)
IL-18 (Aaron Schock)
IN-3 (Marlin Stutzman)
IN-4 (Todd Rokita)
IN-5 (Dan Burton)
IN-6 (Mike Pence retiring)
IA-4 (Tom Latham retiring)
KS-1 (Tim Huelskamp)
KS-2 (Lynn Jenkins)
KS-4 (Mike Pompeo)
KY-1 (Ed Whitfield)
KY-2 (Brett Guthrie)
KY-4 (Geoff Davis)
KY-5 (Harold Rogers)
LA-1 (Steve Scalise)
LA-3 (Jeff Landry)
LA-4 (John Fleming)
LA-5 (Rodney Alexander)
LA-6 (Bill Cassidy)
MD-6 (Roscoe Bartlett)
MI-2 (Bill Huizenga)
MI-4 (Dave Camp)
MI-6 (Fred Upton)
MI-8 (Mike Rogers)
MI-10 (Candice Miller)
MN-2 (John Kline)
MS-3 (Gregg Harper)
MS-4 (Steven Palazzo)
MO-6 (Sam Graves)
MO-7 (Billy Long)
MO-8 (Jo Ann Emerson)
NE-1 (Jeff Fortenberry)
NE-2 (Lee Terry)
NE-3 (Adrian Smith)
NJ-2 (Frank LoBiondo)
NJ-4 (Chris Smith)
NJ-5 (Scott Garrett)
NJ-11 (Rodney Frelinghuysen)
NY-3 (Peter King)
NC-3 (Walter Jones)
NC-5 (Virginia Foxx)
NC-6 (Howard Coble)
NC-9 (Sue Myrick)
NC-10 (Patrick McHenry)
ND-AL (Rick Berg retiring)
OH-2 (Jean Schmidt)
OH-3 (Mike Turner)
OH-4 (Jim Jordan)
OH-5 (Bob Latta)
OH-7 (Steve Austria)
OH-8 (John Boehner)
OH-14 (Steven LaTourette)
OK-1 (John Sullivan)
OK-3 (Frank Lucas)
OK-4 (Tom Cole)
OK-5 (James Lankford)
OR-2 (Greg Walden)
PA-5 (Glenn Thompson)
PA-9 (Bill Shuster)
PA-16 (Joe Pitts)
PA-18 (Tim Murphy)
SC-1 (Tim Scott)
SC-3 (Jeff Duncan)
SC-4 (Trey Gowdy)
SC-7 (NEW)
TN-1 (Phil Roe)
TN-2 (John Duncan)
TN-3 (Chuck Fleischmann)
TN-4 (Scott DesJarlais)
TN-6 (Diane Black)
TN-7 (Marsha Blackburn)
TX-1 (Louie Gohmert)
TX-2 (Ted Poe)
TX-3 (Sam Johnson)
TX-4 (Ralph Hall)
TX-5 (Jeb Hensarling)
TX-6 (Joe Barton)
TX-7 (John Culberson)
TX-8 (Kevin Brady)
TX-10 (Michael McCaul)
TX-11 (Mike Conaway)
TX-12 (Kay Granger)
TX-13 (Mac Thornberry)
TX-14 (Ron Paul)
TX-17 (Bill Flores)
TX-19 (Randy Neugebauer)
TX-21 (Lamar Smith)
TX-22 (Pete Olson)
TX-24 (Kenny Marchant)
TX-26 (Michael Burgess)
TX-31 (John Carter)
TX-32 (Pete Sessions)
TX-33 (NEW)
TX-34 (NEW)
TX-35 (NEW)
TX-36 (NEW)
UT-1 (Rob Bishop)
UT-3 (Jason Chaffetz)
UT-4 (NEW)
VA-1 (Rob Wittman)
VA-4 (Randy Forbes)
VA-6 (Bob Goodlatte)
VA-10 (Frank Wolf)
WA-4 (Doc Hastings)
WA-5 (Cathy McMorris Rodgers)
WV-2 (Shelley Moore Capito)
WI-1 (Paul Ryan)
WI-5 (Jim Sensenbrenner)
WI-6 (Tom Petri)
WY-AL (Cynthia Lummis)

Republicans: 247
Democrats: 190

State of the Day - Maryland

2011-05-31T08:55:00.000-04:00

Maryland is and has always been a little bit of both North and South. Politically, it has produced quite a few colorful characters. It has changed over the past century from a manufacturing and fishing state centered on Baltimore to a suburban state. Baltimore still dominates the state in many ways and is the driver behind the state's long Democratic tradition. Democrats are also helped by a 29% African-American population that votes overwhelmingly Democratic. The Washington suburbs in Montgomery and Prince George's County have become heavily Democratic as well. Maryland is now one of the most Democratic states and that does not look likely to change any time soon. The state's safe Democratic majority produces many influential Democrats such as Governor Martin O'Malley, Senator Barbara Mikulski, and House Minority Whip Steny Hoyer.

Republicans did have one success in 2010, as Andy Harris won the heavily Republican First District that he managed to lose to the Democrats in 2008. Aside from that, however, Maryland continued to be one of the bluest states. Republicans had hoped former Governor (2003-2007) Robert Ehrlich could mount a strong challenge for his old job, but he fizzled and lost a second straight rout to O'Malley. The GOP never threatened Mikulski.

Democrats will control redistricting. The current districts are already a partisan gerrymander, with bizarre boundaries designed to pack the maximum number of Republicans into safe GOP districts (one of which the Democrats managed to win anyway in 2008). That's probably the best Democrats could do, so expect them to pursue the status quo. Population has grown faster in the Republican areas than the rest of the state, so the Second and Third Districts may become a bit more Republican, but not enough to seriously threaten the current incumbents.

President – 10 Electoral Votes

Maryland has not come close to going Republican since George H.W. Bush won it a generation ago. Only in a Republican landslide will the final result here look even somewhat respectable.

The primary here will be February 14, 2012, the week after Super Tuesday. This could make it an important state if there is still a race. Theoretically, Mitt Romney should do well here although there is certainly an opening for a more socially conservative candidate. An underfunded Mike Huckabee won 29% here in 2008 even though it was obvious by that point John McCain would be the nominee. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

Governor – Martin O’Malley (D)

Entering 2010 O'Malley had middling approval ratings and Republicans were psyched about a comeback attempt by former Governor Robert Ehrlich, whom O'Malley had defeated in 2006. Ehrlich's campaign faded before it even began, however, and O'Malley won a resounding 56%-42% victory. Term limits will end his tenure in 2014. LIKELY DEMOCRAT.

Senior Senator – Barbara Mikulski (D)

Mikulski stomped token Republican Eric Wargotz in 2016. She has this seat as long as she wants it. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

Junior Senator – Ben Cardin (D)

Cardin needed a good Democratic wind to defeat Michael Steele (remember when he was hot?) for this seat in 2006. Steele is considering a rematch. However, there is no reason to believe that Steele (whose credibility is totally shot by now), or anybody else, could mount a serious challenge in 2012. LEAN DEMOCRAT.

House 1 – Andy Harris (R)

The Eastern Shore seat in Maryland should never vote for a Democrat, but it did in 2008. The very conservative Harris challenged and defeated moderate Republican Rep. Wayne Gilchrest in the primary. Gilchrest endorsed Democrat Frank Kratovil, who capitalized on the Republican fissures and the Demcoratic wave to defeat Harris 49%-48%. Harris returned in the very Republican 2010 and Kratovil had no chance, losing 55%-41%. Harris should prove hard to oust. The district needs to lose 14,000 people, which will only make it more Republican. LIKELY REPUBLICAN.

House 2 – Dutch Ruppersberger (D)

The Baltimore area district isn’t totally Democratic, but Ruppersberger appears safe. The seat needs to pick up 15,000 people, which will probably be Republicans from the first district, but it should not matter to Ruppersberger. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

House 3 – John Sarbanes (D)

This Baltimore seat leans Democratic. Sarbanes has one of the most recognizable names in Maryland politics and does not look beatable. The district needs to pick up only 1,000 people, so it should remain basically unchanged. LIKELY DEMOCRAT.

House 4 – Donna Edwards (D)

This black majority Prince George's/Montgomery seat won't be voting Republican anytime soon. It needs to pick up 21,000 people. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

House 5 – Steny Hoyer (D)

Hoyer may never get past Nancy Pelosi in the House, but he won't lose this safely Democratic Southern Maryland seat. It actually needs to lose 43,000 people. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

House 6 – Roscoe Bartlett (R)

Bartlett never bothers to fundraise much, but it does not matter in this heavily Republican Western Maryland district. The seat needs to lose 23,000 people. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 7 – Elijah Cummings (D)

This Baltimore seat needs 39,000 people. If every single one of them voted Republican it still would not matter. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

House 8 – Chris Van Hollen (D)

Van Hollen just finished two cycles as chair of the DCCC. In 2008, he was a genius. In 2010, he was an idiot. Or, maybe election results have little to do with the DCCC chair. Van Hollen rebounded nicely, and is currently the Ranking Member of the Budget Committee. He will have no problem holding this overwhelmingly Democratic Montgomery County seat. This district should remain essentially unchanged, only needing to pick up about 4,000 people. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

State of the Day - Maine

2011-05-30T12:00:00.000-04:00

Maine is historically a prototypical Yankee state but in recent years, it has shown a contrarian streak in politics with a preference for third party candidates. In the past twenty years, it has shifted from agriculture and small manufacturing to tourism and high tech. While the economy on the coast has been humming, the interior of the state has been in steep decline and on the whole Maine has the oldest population in the country. Maine leans a bit to the left of the center but is generally independent and unpredictable. It last voted Republican for President in 1988 and routinely elects Democratic House members, but it elected an independent as Governor twice in the 1990's, loves its two liberal Republican Senators, and the Legislature is very volatile. Locally, the primary issue involves potential development or environmental protection of the northern forests.

This past election was prototypical Mainer affair. Democrats held the two House seats, but Republicans managed to win the Governor's Mansion thanks in large part to a very strong third party candidate who nearly won the election. Maine may be contested in the 2012 election, especially since it splits its Electoral Votes by Congressional District. Republican Senator Olympia Snowe is probably invulnerable to a Democratic challenge, but may face a primary challenge from conservatives angry with her frequent footsie with Democrats.

Republicans technically control redistricting, but in reality they don't. There is a bipartisan redistricting board that redraws boundaries, but the Legislature can pass its own plan with a 2/3 majority. Republicans do not have such a majority, so the most likely scenario is a plan that merely shifts 9,000 people from the First to the Second District. It's not clear that the Republicans could do any better even if they tried.

Oddly, Maine does its redistricting in the second cycle after the Census. Thus, redistricting is not scheduled to occur in 2013, so the 2012 elections will take place under the current map. This is blatantly unconstitutional, but in the past nobody cared. However, a lawsuit was filed on this point in March which will probably result in redistricting taking place before the next election. For U.S. House purposes, it won't matter.

President – 4 Electoral Votes

Maine is a good Democratic state, but in a mirror image of 2008, a Republican would have about 50-50 odds of winning it. Maine awards two electoral votes to the statewide winner and one electoral vote to the winner in each Congressional district. The Second District is about five points more Republican than the first district, meaning that the Republican would likely win one electoral vote if he could get within about six points of the Democrat statewide.

Maine does not have a presidential primary. LIKELY DEMOCRAT.

Governor – Paul LePage (R)

LePage is too conservative for Maine and seemed to have some personal problems during the campaign, answering questions about alleged ethical and financial troubles. He sometimes reacted poorly to such questions. However, Democrat Elizabeth "Libby" Mitchell never got on track either. Independent Eliot Cutler, a former aide to Jimmy Carter, stepped into the breach and nearly won the election. LePage held on with 38%, 37% for Cutler and a pathetic 19% for Mitchell.

LePage began his term by appointing his 22 year old daughter to a position for which she seemed to have no qualifications. He then proceeded to pick a fight with labor unions over a mural in the Capitol and told the NAACP to "kiss his butt". It was then revealed that LePage has homestead exemptions in both Maine and Florida. He has begun to be heckled at town hall meetings. I suspected LePage would easily be a train wreck, and so far I'm right. LIKELY DEMOCRAT.

Senior Senator – Olympia Snowe (R)

Snowe may be the most popular figure in Maine and she does not look beatable in 2012. Her bigger problem would be a Republican primary. She has two announced Tea Party challengers, Scott D'Amboise and Andrew Dodge. Snowe should survive if the Tea Party vote splits between them. If the Tea Party managed to beat Snowe, they will essentially be gifting this seat to the Democrats. If Snowe survives, she'll win easily in November. LIKELY REPUBLICAN.

Junior Senator – Susan Collins (R)

Long thought vulnerable by Democrats, she stomped a strong Democratic challenger in a terrible Republican year in 2008. Unlike Snowe, however, she will probably face more strong competition. She could also expect a primary challenge from the right. TOSSUP REPUBLICAN.

House 1 – Chellie Pingree (D)

This Southern Maine seat is the more Democratic of the two, though it is not impossible for the GOP to win here. Since Pingree was a freshman in a bad Democratic year, she showed up on some GOP target lists. However, Republicans nominated firebrand Dean Scontras, who never had a chance. Pingree won 57%-43%. That should be a lesson for Republicans looking to take down Olympia Snowe. LIKELY DEMOCRAT.

House 2 – Michael Michaud (D)

This northern Maine seat should be a winnable seat for the GOP, but Michaud has won reelection easily. He had some competition after making some very unpopular high profile votes. Still, on the whole Michaud's socially conservative, pro-union voting record fits very well here. Republicans nominated extremist Jason Levesque, which didn't work out. Michaud won by an impressive 55%-45%. Again, anti-Snowe Republicans should take note of the result. Michaud will be difficult to beat. LEAN DEMOCRAT.

State of the Day - Louisiana

2011-05-29T08:00:00.000-04:00

Louisiana, with its charm, corruption, and horrendous public policy problems, is politically in a netherworld between the Deep South and a Latin American banana republic. The devastation caused by Hurricane Katrina in 2005 may just totally remake this fragile society. Despite the obvious vulnerability of New Orleans, Louisiana's leadership and political culture totally failed to prepare for or react to the storm. The incident destroyed the reputations of President George W. Bush and Democratic Governor Kathleen Babineaux Blanco. In reality, blame goes back generations and through all levels of government. The state was originally a colony of Spain and France (whose Napoleonic Code still forms the basis of law here), and has always relied on natural resources. Governor (1928-1932) and Senator (1932-1935) Huey Long might have been the most unabashedly populist political figure in American history, and his legacy still affects the state to this day. Since then the politics here has centered around Longs or their ilk (Earl and Russell Long, Edwin Edwards) and rarely victorious reformers (David Treen, Buddy Roemer, Bobby Jindal), and the state has fallen behind. Oil fueled a boom in the 1970's and bust during the 1980's, and since then gambling and tourism have played major roles. Population growth has been very slow and the New Orleans area lost population after Katrina. The state has become quite Republican in national elections, though personality is still more important than party on the state and local level. Still, the balance seems to be shifting toward Republicans. National Republicans do better in the Western part of the state, but Bobby Jindal's base vote came in the New Orleans suburbs. Jindal seems to be the first reform Governor to succeed, and this trend could change Louisiana politics.

In 2010, Democrats did reclaim the Second District House seat they lost under fluke circumstances in 2008. However, despite a strong challenger in the form of Rep. Charles Melancon, Democrats couldn't come close to knock off prostitution tainted Senator David Vitter. To add insult to injury, Republicans easily captured Melancon's House seat. Jindal looks to be a shoo-in for reelection later this year, and Democrats seem to have no chance at a breakthrough in 2012.

Redistricting was split between the Democratic legislature and Governor Jindal. Louisiana lost a seat. The final map protected the black majority Second District and essentially cut up the Third District, probably forcing freshman GOP Rep. Jeff Landry into a primary against Reps. Charles Boustany (currently the Seventh District incumbent) or Rep. Steve Scalise (First District). The other Republicans should be find, and the end result should be a 5-1 Republican majority.

President – 8 Electoral Votes

Louisiana has generally voted Democratic for President as long as the Democrats nominated somebody that could at least pass for a “good ‘ol boy”. Louisiana is more Republican now, and Democrats don’t look likely to nominate someone like that anytime soon. Louisiana's primary is the Saturday after Super Tuesday, so it may matter if the race becomes prolonged. I'd definitely pick a socially conservative candidate over Romney, if any get that far. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

Governor – Bobby Jindal (R)

Jindal has high approval ratings and no obvious challenger. This is unlikely to go to a runoff in 2011. The only Democrats who have been publicly mentioned running are Caroline Fayard, who just lost badly in a special election for Lieutenant Governor and subsequently bowed out, and former Governor (2004-2008) Kathleen Babineaux Blanco, who was so unpopular she couldn't run for reelection. This race is unlikely to reach a runoff in Louisiana's unique "jungle primary", and Jindal may not even see real opposition. Jindal pointedly refused to endorse Senator David Vitter and would probably be in strong shape to challenge him in 2016. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

Senior Senator – Mary Landrieu (D)

In three elections, Landrieu has either had a miserable opponent or a huge Democratic year. Even so, she has never topped 52%. Her luck will run out at some point, very possibly 2014. LEAN REPUBLICAN.

Junior Senator – David Vitter (R)

Vitter got caught using the services of a prostitute. This hardly makes him unique among Louisiana politicians, but it still promised to cause him some consternation. However, 2010 was a year that no Democrat could have won this seat, no matter what Vitter did. Governor Bobby Jindal refused to endorse Vitter, and in so doing left open the possibility that he could challenge and defeat Vitter in 2016. LIKELY REPUBLICAN.

House 1 – Steve Scalise (R)

This Suburban New Orleans seat was one of the first places in the South to go Republican, and it remains heavily so. Redistricting essentially combined this seat with about a quarter of the Third District. It lost part of the northern area of the district in Washington and Tangipanoa Parishes, while gaining some of New Orleans and most of five parishes south of Lake Ponchartrain and on the Gulf Coast: St. Bernard, Plaquemines, Jefferson, Laforche, and Terrebonne. The end result is to make it actually a bit more Republican, if that's even possible. Third District Rep. Jeff Landry is said to be leaning toward running against Charles Boustany in the new Third, although it would also be reasonable for him to run here. Either way, Landry is an underdog. If Landry goes elsewhere, Scalise is safe. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 2 – Cedric Richmond (D)

This black majority New Orleans seat actually went Republican in 2008 due to a series to flukes that combined for one of the oddest election results of modern time. It easily went back to the Democrats in 2010 and won't be going Republican again any time soon. The area was decimated by Hurricane Katrina and had to expand, moving west to take in parts of St. John, St. James, Assumption, Ascension, and Iberville Parishes all the way to West and East Baton Rouge. This keeps the district black majority, although not quite as Democratic as before. Obama still got 73% in the new lines however, so Richmond should continue on his merry way. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

House 3 – Jeff Landry (R)

Democrat Charles Melancon vacated this Southeast Louisiana seat to run for the Senate. The seat has become heavily Republican so it was no surprise that Landry beat a strong Democrat 64%-36%. Unfortunately for Landry, he probably lost his seat in redistricting. Most of its territory to the east is taken away: St. Bernard, Plaquemines, Jefferson, St. Charles, Lafourche, St. John the Baptist, St. James, Ascension, Terrebonne, and Assumption Parishes. Instead, the seat picks up most of the current Seventh District: Lafayette, Acadia, Vermilion, Cameron, Calcasieu, and a small part of St. Landry Parishes. This makes it more of a Southwest Louisiana seat while making it somehow less Democratic than it was. The district is more than 75% made of voters from the current Seventh, putting Landry at a huge disadvantage against Boustany. Democrats won't matter in any event. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 4 – John Fleming (R)

Democrats somehow came within 350 votes of winning this Northwest Louisiana safe Republican seat in 2008, and probably would have won it had the election taken place in November instead of December. The district gets a rather minor makeover. It loses Grant Parish but gains Union Parish in the north and gains Allen, Evangeline, and about half of St. Landry Parish in the south. The changes make no real difference. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 5 – Rodney Alexander (R)

How on Earth did Alexander win this Northeast Louisiana seat as a Democrat in 2002? Louisiana is changing and the conservative Democrats are dying off pretty quickly. This seat also doesn't change much. It loses Grant, Allen, and Evangeline Parishes in the West, but picks up St. Landry Parish and moves east of the Mississippi to take in parts of West Feliciana, East Feliciana, St. Helena, Tangipahoa, and Washington Parishes, stretching all the way to the far eastern part of the state. The changes don't the balance here. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 6 – Bill Cassidy (R)

Democrats somehow managed to win a special election in this normally solid Republican Baton Rouge area district in 2008 thanks to the candidacy of serial loser Woody Jenkins, but the GOP won this seat back by a 48%-40% margin in November. Democrat Don Cazayoux might have won had African-American State Senator Michael Jackson not received 12% as a third party candidate. The success was fleeting, because Democrats did not answer the bell here in 2010.

Much of the black population was taken out to shore up the Second District and this one goes from a safe Republican seats to one of the most Republican seats in the nation. To make up the population it picked up heavily Republican Pointe Coupee Parish and parts of Iberville, Assumption, Terrebonne, and Lafourche Parishes. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 7 – Charles Boustany (R)

In yet another example of the death of Louisiana conservative Democrats, this Southwest Louisiana seat was held by conservative Democrat through in 2004 and nearly retained in that year.

This seat has been abolished and most of it will be in the Third District for 2012. SEAT ELIMINATED.

State of the Day - Kentucky

2011-05-28T12:19:00.000-04:00

Kentucky is a very white state with a large rural and blue collar population that is suspicious of powerful government, much like it was when it entered the Union in 1792. While the tobacco industry is declining, Kentucky still lacks a "twenty-first century style economy" based heavily on tech and service industries. Growth here has been slow and a very high percentage of residents here are native born. Democrats have always been dominant here and still do well in state elections, but on the Presidential level, Kentucky has become reliably Republican. The GOP now holds both Senate seats, four of the six Congressional seats, and the state Senate.

The big story here in 2010 was the victory of the doctrinaire libertarian and Tea Partier Rand Paul as a Republican for the Senate. Still, considering the circumstances Democrats did okay. Democratic Rep. John Yarmuth easily held the seat he won from a Republican in 2006. The other Democratic Representative, Ben Chandler, survived an extremely unfriendly situation. Kentucky should be a rock solid state against Barack Obama in 2012, however.

Redistricting will be split in 2011. The smart money is on a plan that makes minor changes to meet the equal population standard, but does not noticeably shift the political situation.

President – 8 Electoral Votes

Kentucky (along with West Virginia, Tennessee, and Arkansas) has fallen totally out of reach for Democrats just a decade after twice voting for Bill Clinton. Kentucky’s May 22, 2012 primary is highly unlikely to play any role in determining the GOP nominee. If it did that would mean there was a two person race, and if that happened I would pick whichever candidate is not Mitt Romney. LIKELY REPUBLICAN.

Governor – Steve Beshear (D)

Beshear’s victory in 2007 had more to do with the ethical problems of his opponent, Governor Ernie Fletcher, than anything positive Beshear did. His approval ratings have been all over the place during his term, but have seemed to stabilize over 50%. Republicans had a three way primary, which was won by State Senate President David Williams with 48% of the vote.

Polling places Beshear in pretty good shape with over 50% of the vote with Williams stuck in the mid 30's. The only threat to Beshear that I see is his party label, but that should be muted in the "off-off" year election and Kentucky still elects many Democrats for state and local office. I don't see this one being much of a contest. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

Prediction: Gov. Beshear (D) 56%, Williams (R)

Senior Senator – Mitch McConnell (R)

Democrats targeted the Majority Leader in 2008, and while they held him down they could not beat him. Since it would be hard to see a more anti-Republican year than 2008, it’s hard to see how McConnell will go down in 2014. Still, McConnell is pretty polarizing so he should expect any big victories. LEAN REPUBLICAN.

Junior Senator – Rand Paul (R)

Paul's ideology has been covered well elsewhere. I'd like to point out a simple fact. Paul won 56%-44%. In Kentucky. In 2010. This is not a particularly impressive victory, and indicates some unease with Paul even though his opponent shot himself in the foot late the campaign with "Aqua Buddha". This being Kentucky, Paul can probably hold this seat. However, his victory is hardly a portent of anything certain. LIKELY REPUBLICAN.

House 1 – Ed Whitfield (R)

This has become a very safe Republican district, and Whitfield has had only token opposition. This Western Kentucky seat needs to pick up only about 15,000 people, which won't change anything. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 2 – Brett Guthrie (R)

Democrats ran hard here in 2008, but when a district rejects Democrats in an open seat in 2008, you know it is safe for the Republicans. This Central Kentucky seat needs to lose about 21,000 people. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 3 – John Yarmuth (D)

Democrats won this Louisville seat from Republican Anne Northup in 2006 and held it against her in 2008. Even though Northup had held it, it’s really quite marginal, going for John Kerry and giving Barack Obama 56%. Yarmuth won impressively in a terrible climate, 55%-44%. The seat needs to lose 15,000 people, but as redistricting is split I cannot see a situation in which Yarmuth does not have a serious advantage in 2012. LEAN DEMOCRAT.

House 4 – Geoff Davis (R)

This Northern Kentucky seat has become unreachable for Democrats. It needs to lose 12,000 people. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 5 – Harold Rogers (R)

Democrats have about as much chance of winning as Louisville basketball coach Rick Pitino does of winning Man of the Year from the Family Research Council. This rural Southeast Kentucky seat needs to pick up 25,000 people. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 6 – Ben Chandler (D)

This Lexington/Frankfort based seat is mostly Republican (55% for McCain). Chandler has predictably put up a conservative record, which makes him a difficult target. As it was, he probably would have lost in 2010 had they not nominated a weak candidate in the form of Andy Barr, aide to disgraced former Governor Ernie Fletcher. As it was, Chandler survived by 600 votes. The seat needs to lose 24,000 people and demographics dictate that will pretty much have to come from the rural southern part of the district, which will help the incumbent. Still, given the notable trend against ticket splitting this seat is an obvious target for Republicans if they can find a better candidate. TOSSUP REPUBLICAN.

The Leaky Tire Economy

2011-05-28T09:08:00.002-04:00

Perhaps you have had the problem that I recently had. I noticed that one of my tires was quite low, so I went to the gas station and for a dollar put air in the tire. About a month later, the same tire was nearly flat again, so I filled it again. Clearly there was some kind of slow leak in the tire. A couple of weeks later, the same thing happened. I could keep putting air in so the car would drive okay, but obviously I needed to change the tire. It was tempting to keep paying a dollar once every week or so, but my trips to put air in the tire would become more frequent and futile. I did not enjoy incurring the cost of replacing the tire, but it was a necessity.

That is our fiscal situation. It has been reported widely that the first quarter economic numbers were not impressive, and many economists blame this on the withdrawal of stimulus funding. They are right. The disappearance of this money does slow the economy down in the short term. However, this does not mean we need to keep putting up short term stimuli.

The massive stimulus measures didn't do much to create growth, and the backslide has continued. Clearly, the economy has some structural problems that go well beyond fiscal stimulus. Namely, the growth of the last decade was built largely on debt. We borrowed from the future, and now that is catching up to us.

In the long run, it is obvious that several structural changes will be necessary to the economy. Spending, particularly in the area of social insurance, will have to be curtailed. The government will probably need to raise revenue as well. In addition, for environmental and national security reasons, an increase in the gasoline tax may be appropriate as well. In the short run, none of these measure will help the economy. In the long run, they are vital.

Looking at short term stimulus is like putting air in a leaky tire. You can make things adequate for a while, but eventually you can't cover over the problem. Sometimes you just have to replace the tire, incur the hit, and improve your situation beyond the immediate horizon. We can keep trying stimulus, worsen our long term problems, and settle for sputtering and sporadic growth over the next decade. Or, we can take an economic hit now, suffer for a year or two, but lay the groundwork for strong growth going forward. The latter occurred in 1981-82 when Paul Volcker engineered a recession to rid the economy of inflation, and that's the kind of idea we need to think about now.

What are the odds elected officials will take short term economic pain? Take a wild guess.This is the rest of the post

NY-26 and Medicare

2011-05-27T13:50:00.002-04:00

Democrats are ecstatic over Tuesday's special election victory by Democrat Kathy Hochul in the special election to replace Republican Chris "Craigslist Lothario" Lee. Before we get too carried away with trying to analyze this, let's look at the result.

Hochul(D) 47%
Corwin (R) 43%
Davis (Tea) 9%

The first thing that should strike you about this result is that the Republican plus the Tea Party candidate would defeat Hochul. If we add the 1% the Green Party nomineee received to Hochul's total, we see that the GOP/Tea defeated the Dem/Greens 52/48.

Now, based on the last two Presidential elections we can identify this as an R+6 district. This is the most Republican district in New York, but by national standards it merely has a serious Republican lean. We would expect the Republicans to win, but the seat is hardly out of reach, especially if the Republicans screw the pooch as they did here.

Also, the Democrats are on a bit of a hot stretch after the capture of Osama bin Laden. According to the Real Clear Politics average on Tuesday, Obama's approval rating was 53%. If we say roughly that the election occurred in a D+3 environment, we would expect the GOP to take it 53-47, one point off the combined results.

Keep in mind also the turnout was abysmal, as turnout was less than half of the turnout in the noncompetitive 2010 election. Republicans also seem to do poorly in special elections. In short, this result was no surprise under the circumstances.

The Democrats see this result as a vindication of Medicare. Hochul ran strongly on preserving the system and the Republicans voiced support for changes along the line of the Paul Ryan voucher system. As we've seen, there is zero evidence that Medicare was a factor in this election. Taking this election as a mandate of the status quo on Medicare would be a huge mistake.

This brings us to another, more important point. Democrats point out Medicare is popular and people oppose changes. They are right. However, this does not change the fact that left unchanged Medicare will singlehandedly destroy the federal budget. In short, we cannot afford the Medicare we have now. Even if we could, the system going forward won't be the same one people like now. Due to rising costs, more and more seniors are finding fewer and fewer doctors are accepting Medicare. Increasingly, Medicare will mean longer waits, fewer options, and worse treatments. Is that what we're trying to save?

The idea of "saving Medicare" is what President Obama likes to call a false choice. Medicare must be altered. The manner in which it is altered is a manner of legitimate debate, but saving the status quo is not. The Democrats risk missing the boat politically and policywise by misinterpreting this special election.
This is the rest of the post

State of the Day - Kansas

2011-05-27T13:13:00.000-04:00

Kansas joined the nation in a moment of violence, sparked by the ill-conceived Kansas-Nebraska Act of 1854. After the Civil War, an antislavery majority created a reliably Republican state, where Democrats only competed during agricultural busts. Kansas is less agricultural now, but it is still very Republican. Rural Western Kansas is dying out, but suburban Kansas City is growing rapidly and attracting immigrants. This has helped split the Republican Party and given Kansas a sort of three party politics, with fierce battles between moderate and conservative Republicans. Democrats have been able to win some races when conservatives win the Republican primary but cannot hold onto moderate Republicans in the general election. Democratic Governor (2003-2009) Kathleen Sebelius and Reps. Dennis Moore (1999-2011) and Nancy Boyda (2007-2009) won their offices in this manner, but Republicans have maintained a total lock on Presidential races and Senate seats.

In 2010, the Republican Party had internal competition, but did not leave the Democrats a similar opening. Sam Brownback won the Governor's Mansion in a walkover, and Republican Jerry Moran easily won Brownback's Senate seat despite a competitive primary. Republicans also kicked Democrats out of the House delegation by capturing the House seat of the retiring Moore. There is no reason to believe that Democrats will have any success here in 2012.

Republicans will control redistricting. Equal population standards will require a net shift of about 40,000 people from the Third to the First District. Expect Republicans to use this opportunity to shore up freshman Third District Rep. Kevin Yoder, who represents a swing district held by Democrats for the previous twelve years.

President – 6 Electoral Votes

While there are several states more Republican than Kansas, it has not even approached voting for a Democrat for President since 1964, and it would take quite the Democratic performance to make it close in 2012. The state has no Presidential primary. LIKELY REPUBLICAN

Governor – Sam Brownback (R)

A Senator for 14 years, Brownback essentially won the Governor's Mansion by default after Democratic Governor Mark Parkinson announced he would not seek election in his own right. After a 63%-32% win in this red state, it is hard to envision circumstances that would prevent Brownback from winning a second term. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

Senior Senator – Pat Roberts (R)

Democrats felt oddly pumped about their candidate in 2008, but all they had to show for it was a 60%-36% defeat. Democrats have not elected a Senator here since 1932, and there is no way they will do that by beating Roberts in 2014. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

Junior Senator – Jerry Moran (R)

The election for this open seat occurred in the primary, where Reps. Moran and Todd Tiahrt waged a nasty battle. Moran won by a margin of 50%-45%. He crushed Lisa Johnston 70%-26% in November. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 1 – Tim Huelskamp (R)

This Western Kansas seat is one of the safest in the nation for the GOP. It needs to pick up 46,000 people, and will probably absorb some more marginal territory to make the other districts more Republican. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 2 – Lynn Jenkins (R)

Democrats actually won this East Kansas seat in 2006 after conservative Republican Rep. Jim Ryun alienated enough moderate Republicans to lose the seat. The more moderate Jenkins defeated Ryun in the 2008 primary and restored order. Democrats could only come up with a token candidate in 2010. This district only needs to lose 2,000 people, but it should pick up some more marginal territory in an effort to make the Third District more Republican. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 3 – Kevin Yoder (R)

Democrats held this swing KC Area seat from 1999-2011. However, incumbent Dennis Moore retired in 2010. His wife ran to replace him, but the creation of a family dynasty was not going happen in the disastrous Democratic year of 2010. Yoder won 58%-39%. The seat needs to lose 48,000 people. Expect Republicans to shave off part of Lawrence to make the seat more Republican. LEAN REPUBLICAN.

House 4 – Mike Pompeo (R)

Pompeo, the new incumbent in this Wichita based seat, talked in the Republican primary of wanting to renew his hunting licenses so he could "bag a RINO". Not coincidentally, his 59%-36% general election win was a pretty significant underperformance for a Republican in this district, particularly in a year like 2010. This seat nees to pick up a mere 5,000 people for 2012. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

Does Obama's Race Matter?

2011-05-27T09:39:00.004-04:00

The short answer to this question is yes, but not in the way you might think.

I suspect, but cannot prove, that Obama's race and the thought of being the first black President increased his appeal to a decent amount of liberals, particularly young people. This enhanced Obama's appeal well beyond a normal two-year Senator with oratory skills. In a way, Obama's race helped make him a credible candidate in the first place, certainly more so than he appeared on paper.

His race certainly helped him win 90%+ of the black vote, and this was a key factor in being able to win the Democratic nomination. This factor alone singlehandedly won him most of the Southern states. Without such a sweeping domination of the black vote he almost certainly would have lost to Hillary Clinton. Obama was probably responsible for the increased black turnout in November and managed to increase the Democratic percentage of the black vote. This didn't make too much of a difference in the general election, though it did probably contribute to his wins in Virginia, North Carolina, and Indiana.

I am sure that some voters out there refused to vote for Obama because of his race. However, the effect was limited. For one thing, I don't think there are many of those people. Secondly, I would suspect most people that feel this way would never vote for the Democrats anyway. Yes, Obama did worse than John Kerry in the "Jacksonian Belt" of West Virginia, Kentucky, Tennessee, and Arkansas. However, while I will not deny that Obama was particularly unappealing here, these states are on a long term flight away from the Democratic Party, a trend that predates and transcends Obama.

On the whole, I think one has to conclude that Obama's race helped him in 2008. Will it help him in 2010?

I think the answer is yes, and I base this one major point. Since the first months of his administration, Obama's approval rating has hovered around 50%, usually a tad lower. Support for his policies has been quite a bit lower, usually under 40%. His personal favorability rating has been much higher, consistently over 60%. People don't like what Obama is doing, but they like him.

Certainly, the President is a likable guy. But, I think his race might have something to do with it. As Americans we are proud that we have risen above our often sorry racial history to elect a black man President of the United States. We don't want to have to vote him out. We want him to succeed. His success validates our progress in purging our history of racism. More than any other President, we want him to succeed and it pains us when he does not.

This feeling has been keeping the President afloat. Will it be enough to save him? I don't know, but I do know that the President will get more chances than most President. This is the rest of the post

State of the Day - Iowa

2011-05-26T20:53:00.000-04:00

Iowa was settled by New England Yankees who built an ordered civil society, and for most of the nineteenth century, it remained a stronghold of Yankee Republicanism. In the twentieth and twenty-first centuries, Iowa has struggled economically and failed to grow. However, the past twenty years have shown some improvement as Iowa has diversified its economy beyond agriculture and manufacturing. For years, the state had a sort of contrarian political outlook, opposing Franklin Roosevelt in 1940 and 1944 but voting for Michael Dukakis in 1988. Since then Iowa has reached a stasis as one of the most closely divided states, voting narrowly for Al Gore in 2000 and narrowly for George W. Bush in 2004, voting solidly for Barack Obama in 2008, and reelecting Senators of different parties while maintaining a balance in state politics.

Republicans scored a major success in knocking off unpopular Democratic Governor Chet Culver in 2010, but failed to make any inroads in the House delegation. 2012 will be a very busy political year, as the state again should have an outsized influence in determining the identity of President Obama's opponent. Iowa will also be one of the most competitive states in the general election.

Iowa lost one seat in the Census, and redistricting was done by a neutral board that traditionally provides unpredictable results that neither party loves. That didn't change this time. The two Republicans, Tom Latham and Steve King, found themselves in the same Republican leaning district. Latham has already announced he will challenge Third District Rep. Leonard Boswell in a marginal district, but that has more of Boswell's territory. Democrats Bruce Braley and Dave Loebsack also find themselves in the same Democratic leaning First District, but Loebsack will probably run in the Democratic leaning Second District instead.

President – 6 Electoral Votes

Iowa voted right at the national average for President in 2000 and one point more Democratic than the average in 2004 and 2008. Thus, Iowa is certain to be contested in 2012. It will probably vote for the winner, but in a close election Democrats have a slight edge here. Under the current lineup of states, I cannot see a Democrat winning the White House without Iowa.

Of course, Iowa’s caucuses will provide months of media fodder and the first test for the Republican nomination. Its practical effect will be to narrow the field. Mitt Romney will try to win with superior organization, but that did not help him in 2008 when Mike Huckabee beat him here. Romney can survive a loss here by winning New Hampshire. He has made comments implying that Iowa should not vote first, which definitely won't help him. Other candidates will need to win here to have a shot. Tim Pawlenty is from neighboring Minnesota and is targeting the all important evangelical vote. However, he came out against ethanol subsidies, and this position might blow up in his face. With all the grassroots social conservatives and small town voters that make up her base, Sarah Palin will probably need to win Iowa too should she run. Realistically, I cannot see more than one of those two surviving Iowa. The way the field looks right now, Iowa may be even more important than usual. TOSSUP DEMOCRAT

Governor – Terry Branstad (R)

Branstad served four terms from 1983-1999, and he returned to the Governor's Mansion by crushing unpopular Democratic incumbent Chet Culver 53%-43%. The new Governor has demonstrated lasting and broad appeal in the state, so he will be tough to oust in 2014. Still, this is not a good time to be a Governor. TOSSUP REPUBLICAN.

Senior Senator – Charles Grassley (R)

Grassley cruised yet again, defeating Roxanne Conlin 65%-33%. His only worry for the future would be a primary challenge. LIKELY REPUBLICAN.

Junior Senator – Tom Harkin (D)

Harkin is too liberal for Iowa and until 2008, he always had difficult reelection campaigns. But he has a very loyal base, won easily in 2008, and will be very tough to dislodge. If 2014 is a year like 2010, Harkin could have problems, but otherwise he can probably hold this seat without much sweat. LIKELY DEMOCRAT.

House 1 – Bruce Braley (D)

Before Braley won this seat in 2006, it had been held by a Republican for three decades. However, unlike most seats held by Republicans for 30 years, however, this Waterloo/Dubuque/Davenport/Northeast Iowa seat naturally leans Democratic. Thus, he was able to put up a very liberal voting record and still survive 49%-48% in 2010.

The district added five counties on the Minnesota border: Worth, Mitchell, Howard, Winneshek, and Allamakee. It also added five small counties in East Central Iowa (Marshall, Tama, Benton, Poweshiek, and Iowa) while taking away Clinton County in the north and Clinton and Scott Counties, including the city of Davenport. The most important edition is Linn County, which contains Cedar Rapids and happens to be the home of Second District Rep. Dave Loebsack.

The changes produce a similar district, but one in which a majority of the residents are not represented by Braley. It appears likely at this point that Loebsack will run in the Second District to the south, giving Braley the inside edge at keeping the First District. TOSSUP DEMOCRAT.

House 2 – Dave Loebsack (D)

This Cedar Rapids/Iowa City/Burlington seat is pretty Democratic, but in 2010 Loebsack won only 51%-46% over an opponent he beat 57%-39% two years earlier.

Loebsack's home in Cedar Rapids has been removed from the district along with Linn County. It has been replaced by Davenport. It also has taken a vast swath of rural southern Iowa virtually to Des Moines, and now takes in the entire southwest part of the state. The new counties are Clinton and Scott to the east, and Clarke, Decatur, Lucas, Monroe, Marion, Mahaska, Keokuk, and Jasper to the southwest. The end result reduces the Democratic strength here significantly, though the district still leans Democratic. Loebsack will have an edge assuming he runs in this district, but he will need to step up his game from 2010. TOSSUP DEMOCRAT.

House 3 – Leonard Boswell (D)

Boswell has perpetually found himself on target lists in this Des Moines based marginal seat, yet he managed to win every year. 2012 should be his toughest test. The new district takes Boswell's Des Moines home in Polk County and places in it a district entirely different from the current Third District. The current lines extend east from Des Moines, including Jasper, Marion, Lucas, Monroe, Mahaska, Keokuk, Poweshiek, Iowa, Tama, Benton, and Grundy Counties. The new district extends through some Republican rural territory all the way to Council Bluffs on the Nebraska border, including Guthrie, Dallas, Pottawattomie, Cass, Adair, Madison, Warren, Mills, Montgomery, Madison, Union, Fremont, Page, Taylor, and Ringgold Counties. This reduces the Obama percentage from 54% to 52%, maintaining the swing nature of the seat but making it slightly Republican as opposed to slightly Democratic.

Boswell's other problem is that Fourth District Rep. Tom Latham has decided to run against him rather than challenge Rep. Steve King in the more Republican Fourth District. The district gives Latham a slight edge on paper, but only 17% of the new voters are in Latham's current district. The majority of the district's population is in Des Moines, so Boswell represents 57% of the new voters. That said, Latham has generally outperformed Boswell. This should be a terrific contest, and one of the biggest coin flips in the nation. if i had to guess, howeve, I'd go with Latham. TOSSUP REPUBLICAN.

House 4 – Tom Latham (R)

Latham easily survived two big Democratic waves in this marginal North Iowa seat. This district will take on a totally new form for 2012, as it will essentially combine with much of the Fifth District to take up most of the northwest part of the state. It completely loses its tentacle into the northeast part of the state, consisting of Worth, Mitchell, Howard, Winneshek, and Allamakee, as well as the southern arm of Dallas, Madison, and Warren Counties, as well as Marshall County in the southeast. It adds Butler and Grundy Counties to the east, as well as the heavily Republican Counties in northwest Iowa: Lyon, Osceloa, Dickinson, Sioux, O'Brien, Clay, Plymouth, Cherokee, Buena Vista, Woodbury, Ida, Sac, Monona, Crawford, Carroll, Harrison, Shelby, and Audobon Counties. This makes the swing district lean Republican, though not nearly as much as the current Fifth District.

Latham opted to run against Leonard Boswell in the more marginal Third District, leaving this seat to Fifth District Rep. Steve King. The new margins make it more likely that King, one of the most conservative Members of Congress, will receive a general election challenge. Still, King should be fine barring any serious mistakes. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 5 – Steve King (R)

This seat was eliminated as Iowa lost a seat. King is running in a Republican leaning new Fourth District. SEAT ELIMINATED.

Eleven Questions for President Obama

2011-05-26T15:09:00.004-04:00

In examining the turmoil going on throughout the Middle East, from Tunisia to Afghanistan, I too often struggle to figure out what the United States is doing. I would love to ask President Obama the following questions. I would not expect him to answer them publicly, but I do hope he has asked and answered these questions for himself.

Many Presidents and other figures have tried to solve the Israeli-Palestinian issue and failed. Do you honestly thing you can succeed where they failed, or are you posturing for political reasons? If you do sincerely think you can solve the problem, what makes your approach different and more likely to work?

Is the current Palestinian leadership ready, willing, and/or able to make a reasonable peace agreement with Israel?

What is our goal in Libya, and what do we do if our initial efforts don't accomplish that goal?

What is our goal in Afghanistan and how far are we from achieving it?

What is your criteria for deciding which uprisings we support (militarily, economically, psychically, etc.)?

How do you see the region in ten years and how do we best position ourselves for that future?

What happens if Saudi Arabia blows up?

Why are we attacking Qaddafi but not attacking more obvious anti-American figures like Assad or the Iranians when they are confronted with domestic pressure? Is it because Qaddafi is an easier target? Are we trying to preserve influence with the current regimes in Syria and Iran? Are we fighting there because David Cameron wants us to?

If the United States is obligated to intervene to prevent humanitarian catastrophe, why are not we not intervening in Syria? Are the events there not a humanitarian catastrophe?

If Iraq falls into a civil or sectarian war, will we still continue our withdrawal on schedule? Would you consider more troops if this situation arises?

What are our plans if revolutions in Egypt, Libya, and elsewhere produce Islamist or other anti-American, anti-Israeli governments?

I'm not convinced the President has any of these answers, because to this observer our strategy seems to simply react to individual events as they occur, without regard to consistency or long term strategy. I hope that is not actually the case.

GOP Contender Profiles

2011-05-25T18:41:00.002-04:00

Now that a rash of would be contenders have taken a pass on the 2012 race, I thought it would be good time to review the field of those who will or might run. Here's a quick capsule look at the contenders.

Mitt Romney

Elected Offices Held: MA Governor, 2003-2007
Strengths: Money, Organization, Business Experience/Success
Weaknesses: Issue Consistency, Romneycare, No Obvious Appeal to Right Wing
Odds of Running: 100%
Odds of Nomination: 40%

Romney's basic problem is that pretty much everybody in the Republican Party looks at him and decides to try to find someone else. He is a Mormon who began his career as a social liberal, alienating social conservatives. He also helped pass a health care bill in Massachusetts which became a model for the Obamacare Bill, which is the number one bete noire of conservatives at the moment. His explanation of saying that the idea is good for Massachusetts but not for the nation is weak, especially considering it hasn't worked out to well in Massachusetts.

Romney hopes to and has a good chance of being an acceptable second choice, however, and his chances of the nomination depend on doing so. He needs to finish ahead of Huntsman, who is in a similar situation, in Iowa while hoping the caucuses are won by someone who isn't electable (i.e. not Pawlenty). From there, Romney will need to win New Hampshire and hope going forward the opposition is divided a la 2008 or that he ends up one on one with somebody even less appealing, like Sarah Palin.

Tim Pawlenty

Elected Offices Held: MN House, 1993-2003 (Majority Leader 1999-2003). MN Governor, 2003-2011
Strengths: Handsome, Two Term Governor of a Non Red State, No Real Enemies in Party
Weaknesses: No Obvious Base of Support or Platform, Unimpressive Electoral History, Formerly Supported Cap and Trade, Money?
Odds of Running: 100%
Odds of Winning: 0%

I figured Pawlenty's best bet would be to try to out-Romney the original into being Mr. Second Choice. Instead, Pawlenty has been aggressively courting pretty much everyone, touting his social conservative and anti-spending bona fides. This week he has shifted into "truth telling mode", seemingly going after Mitch Daniels fans by talking about hard choices and going after ethanol subsidies. This is a complete 180 from the persona who has been pandering on issues like the debt ceiling.

Pawlenty's immediate problem is simply finding a base of support. His desperate attempts to do so may fail and his odds of falling flat on his face are decent. At the same time, if he can win Iowa he can position himself to go one and one with Romney, which would be a winnable battle. Pawlenty could be electable, but he has the widest range of outcomes.

Jon Huntsman

Elected Office Held: UT Governor, 2005-2009
Strengths: Money, Popularity as Governor, Foreign Policy Experience
Weaknesses: Not a Doctrinaire Conservative, Name Recognition, Worked in Obama Administration
Odds of Running: 90%
Odds of Nomination: 20%

Huntsman is basically in a contest with Romney for being Mr. Second Choice. His path to the nomination is the same as Romney's. He just has to get ahead.

Sarah Palin

Elected Offices Held: Wasilla City Council, 1993-1997. Wasilla Mayor, 1997-2003. AK Governor, 2007-2009.
Strengths: Name Recognition, Passionate Supporters
Weaknesses: Thin Skin, Odd Political Decision Making, Large Numbers of Enemies, Not Considered Electable
Odds of Running: 50%
Odds of Nomination: 5%

I can see Palin winning Iowa on the basis of strong evangelical and/or Tea Party support. Her problem is that her negatives are so high she is considered unelectable, and she would have a hard time winning an election over anyone credible.

Michele Bachmann

Elected Offices Held: MN Senate, 2001-2007. U.S. House, 2007-
Strengths: Attractive, Good Fundraiser, Tea Party Favorite
Weaknesses: Inexperienced, Gaffe Prone
Odds of Running: 60%
Odds of Nomination: 2%

Bachmann and Palin are mutually exclusive, the only real differenct that Bachmann is even less credible than Palin as a President. What I said about Palin applies to Bachmann.

Herman Cain

Elected Offices Held: None
Strengths: Money, Articulate, Business Experience, Outsider
Weaknesses: Inexperience, Name Recognition, Far Right Political Positions
Odds of Running: 100%
Odds of Nomination: 2%

I maintain that one of the fringe candidates will emerge as a contender, a la Mike Huckabee in 2008, because none of the real contenders are obvious favorites of evangelicals or the Tea Party. Cain has as good a chance as anybody of being that person, and it doesn't take much to see him as a major contender in Iowa as a Tea Party favorite, especially if he can continue with strong debate performances.

However, as a first time candidate, Cain is bound to make mistakes. He also will not be generally viewed as an electable candidate. This combination will effectively prevent him from winning the nomination.

Chris Christie

Elected Offices Held: NJ Governor, 2010-
Strengths: Fiscal Conservative Favorite, Popular Brand
Weaknesses: Appearance, Inexperience, Can Offend People, Doesn't Want to Run
Odds of Running: 2%
Odds of Nomination: 1%

Christie is a favorite of economic conservatives for the blunt way he has tried to repair New Jersey's fiscal situation by taking on unions and other entrenched interests. However, his work in New Jersey is not yet complete and could still fail. Christie seems to realize this, which is why I think he is so adamant about not running. Mitch Daniels's departure has increased the pressure on Christie to run, but it won't amount to anything.

Newt Gingrich

Elected Offices Held: U.S. House, 1979-1999 (Minority Whip 1989-1995, Speaker 1995-1999).
Strengths: Money, Name Recognition
Weaknesses: Character, Flip-Flopping, Gaffes
Odds of Running: 100%
Odds of Nomination: 0%

Gingrich has conducted a clinic in the last week demonstrating why he won't go anywhere.

Ron Paul

Elected Offices Held: U.S. House, 1976-1977, 1979-1985, 1997-.
Strengths: Money, Loyal Supporters
Weaknesses: Foreign Policy Positions, Small Number of Supporters
Odds of Running: 100%
Odds of Nomination: 0%

Paul has had great success making his libertarian ideology more mainstream in the Republican Party. That said, Republicans are never going to nominate a doctrinaire isolationist. Look for a replay of 2008, and for Paul to win re-election to the House.

Rick Perry

Elected Offices Held: TX House, 1985-1991. TX Agriculture Commissioner, 1991-1999. TX Lt. Governor, 1999-2000. TX Governor, 2000-.
Strengths: Handsome, Good Hair, Big State Conservative Governor, Record
Weaknesses: Seriousness, Similarities to George W. Bush, Record, Electoral Underperformance, Thin Skin
Odds of Running: 20%
Odds of Nomination: 0%

Some conservatives who are unimpressed with the current choices are looking to Perry. On the surface, it makes sense. He is a very conservative Governor of a large state which has done reasonably well economically. Beyond the surface, there are problems. Perry has become very good at throwing red meat to the base, but he is not a great public policy thinker. His fiscal policies are highly questionable, as Texas had a huge budget deficit this bienneium, which was filled essentially by using accounting tricks and deliberate underbudgeting to borrow from the next biennium, leaving about a $17 billion hole for 2013. Fiscal conservatives will not like Perry on close examination.

Rudy Giuliani

Elected Offices Held: New York City Mayor, 1994-2002
Strengths: 9/11
Weaknesses: Everything Else
Odds of Running: 10%
Odds of Nomination: 0%

Apparently his butt whipping last time was not enough, and Giuliani is considering more. He has no chance.

Paul Ryan

Elected Offices Held: U.S. House, 1999- (Budget Chair, 2011-)
Strengths: Handsome, Budget, Articulate
Weaknesses: "Medicare Bogeyman", Doesn't Want to Run
Odds of Running: 1%
Odds of Nomination: 0%

Ryan is smart enough to realize this isn't his time. He is the first person to really make substantive proposals regarding entitlement reform, and this makes him very easy to demonize. Desperate fiscal conservatives will try to draft him, but he's smarter than that.

State of the Day - Indiana

2011-05-25T09:51:00.000-04:00

Indiana, a state that as much as any other lays claim to being America’s “heartland”, has been quite kind to Republicans on the Presidential level. Democrats have long managed to remain ferociously competitive, and often ascendant, in state politics. Indiana Democrats, generally of the moderate to conservative variety, controlled the Governor’s Mansion from 1989-2005 and until 2010 held a Senate seat and a majority of the House delegation. Barack Obama stunningly broke through to carry Indiana in 2008, turning out big margins in Indianapolis, the Chicago suburbs, and the university towns while holding down his losses in the rest of the state.

Indiana Democrats took a step back in the disastrous year of 2010. Evan Bayh retired, and his Republican predecessor Dan Coats easily won the seat over Democratic Rep. Brad Ellsworth. Republicans easily took the open House seat of Ellsworth and knocked off Rep. Baron Hill as well. They also took the Legislature. The lone Democratic triumph came when Rep. Joe Donnelly narrowly held the Second District. The Democratic moment here may have passed, and I would be shocked if President Obama again carried Indiana.

Republicans will controlled redistricting. They essentially drew Donnelly out of his seat, and he decided to run for the Senate instead. The new plan added Republican territory to the Ninth District held by freshman Republican Todd Young. Freshman Republican Larry Bucshon probably saw his district get a bit less Republican, and Fourth District freshman Republican Todd Rokita has a safe district, but in an odd development he now lives less than a mile outside the district.

President -11 Electoral Votes

Indiana had not gone Democratic since 1964, and even in a Democratic year, very few thought a Democrat could win. Barack Obama did. He maximized his margins in Indianapolis, the Chicago suburbs, and the university towns. This enabled him to win because John McCain ran well behind George W. Bush in rural and small town Indiana. I remain convinced this had a good deal to do with McCain’s loud and consistent denunciation of agricultural subsidies. Presumably the 2012 nominee will not make this mistake.

2008 was a perfect storm for Obama here, and even then, he barely won Indiana. He will be hard pressed to repeat that.

Indiana has a May primary which will not be relevant to the 2012 GOP nomination fight. LEAN REPUBLICAN.

Governor – Mitch Daniels (R)

Daniels has brought a sometimes blunt, but effective, brand of conservative government to Indiana. It has made him a national star. To this writer, he seemed the only potential 2012 Presidential candidate that offered something new in the realm of serious conservative campaigning and governing. Alas, he passed, and the loss is the nation's.

He cannot run for reelection. Representative Mike Pence, a favorite of national conservatives, has announced his candidacy and is a huge favorite over businessman Jim Wallace. Other Republican candidates to replace him include Indianapolis Mayor Gregory Ballard, Public Education Superintendent Tony Bennett, House Speaker Brian Bosma, State Senate President David Long, GOP State Chairman Murray Clark, former Attorney General Steve Carter and Eric Miller. Still, the field should virtually clear for Pence.

Democrats are less certain. Potential candidates include Hammond Mayor Thomas McDermott, Lake County Sheriff Roy Dominguez, former House Speaker John Gregg, and Senate Minority Leader Vi Simpson. While Rep. Joe Donnelly has announced a campaign for the Senate, I would not be surprised to see him shift to this race if it appears Senator Richard Lugar will win his primary challenge.

The Republicans have a definite edge. LEAN REPUBLICAN.

Senior Senator – Richard Lugar (R)

Democrats have been writing off this seat for three decades. They could do so again except that Lugar has raised the ire of Tea Partiers and received a primary challenge from State Treasurer Richard Mourdock. Lugar is almost a living legend in Indiana, and I think he can hold off the challenge. Our rating assumes he does. If Lugar goes down, however, Republicans will have a much smaller edge. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

Junior Senator – Dan Coats (R)

This seat came open in 2010 when Democrat Evan Bayh decided to retire, finding himself frustrated that more Senators did not exhibit the self-evident milquetoast moderate magnificence of, well, Evan Bayh. Coats served in the Senate from 1989-1999 and had low favorability ratings during his tenure, retiring rather than making an uphill race against Bayh in 1998. Democrats nominated Representative Brad Ellsworth, a conservative Democrat with two big election wins in a mostly Republican district.

In a normal election cycle, this would have been a fascinating race. In 2010, however, Indiana had some buyer’s remorse on Obama and his agenda. Coats led this race the whole way and defeated Ellsworth by a significant 55%-40% margin. Even though Coats struggled during his first tenure, the Republican nature of Indiana should give Coats an edge in 2016. LEAN REPUBLICAN.

House 1 – Peter Visclosky (D)

There aren’t many Republicans in the Gary area, which allows Visclosky to survive ethical issues. The seat lost the small Republican counties of Newton, Jasper, and Benton, and added the rest of Porter County and part of Laporte County. The end result makes the district slightly more Democratic. LIKELY DEMOCRAT.

House 2 – Joe Donnelly (D)

Donnelly held this swing North Indiana seat against Jackie Walorski 48%-47%. Republicans essentially drew Donnelly out of his seat by removing Cass, Carroll, and parts of Laporte, Porter, and White Counties and heavily Democratic Kokomo. They added in heavily Republican Miami, Wabash, and parts of Elkhart and Kosciusko Counties. Donnelly decided to run for the Senate, and the new district should be won by a Republican. LEAN REPUBLICAN.

House 3 – Marlin Stutzman (R)

Stutzman won this vacant seat after Mark Souder resigned in a sex scandal. The Northeast Indiana seat remains safely Republican, but trades off parts of Elkhart and Kosciusko Counties to the east while picking up Wells, Adams, Huntington, Jay, and parts of Allen and Blackford Counties to the South. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 4 – Todd Rokita (R)

Rokita has nothing to worry about, but this seat becomes a more West Central Indiana seat and less of an Indianapolis suburbs seat. The district adds Jasper, Newton, Benton, Cass, Carroll, part of Howard (Kokomo) and the rest of White Counties to the north, as well as Warren, Putnam, and all of Fountain Counties to the west. It loses its southern tentacle of Lawrence and Monroe Counties, and moves entirely out of Indianapolis/Marion County and suburban Johnson County. The end result makes the district a tad more Democratic, but still overwhelmingly Republican. Oddly, Rokita's residence is now about 500 yards from the district, but this should not pose a problem. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 5 – Dan Burton (R)

Burton's district will become much more compact. It loses Indianapolis suburbs in Hancock, Shelby, and Johnson Counties. It also loses three Republican counties to the north, Miami, Wabash, and Huntington. It also adds Madison County and part of Blackford County to the west. The end result is to take some heavily Republican territory out of the district and make the seat much more Democratic. That said, it is still a safe Republican seat. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 6 – Mike Pence (R)

Redistricting took out the northern part of the district: Allen, Wells, Adams, Blackford, Madison, and Jay Counties. It added some of suburban Indianapolis in Hancock and Shelby Counties, and some new territory to the south in Bartholomew, Dearborn, Ripley, Jennings, Ohio, Switzerland, Jefferson, and Scott Counties. The end result is to make this already safe Republican seat even safer.

Pence is retiring to run for Governor, but Republicans will have no problem holding the seat. SAFE REPUBLICAN

House 7 – Andre Carson (D)

This Indianapolis district was the only truly safe Democratic seat in Indiana and will remain so. However, the seat had to move further out into Marion County so it will no longer be totally safe, though Obama won 66% of the new lines. Carson's grandmother Julia, known her apathetic and shockingly close camapaigns, probably would have lost this seat. Andre Carson will probably be fine, but as he got 59% in a district that gave Obama 71%, it is worth keeping an eye on. LIKELY DEMOCRAT.

House 8 – Larry Bucshon (R)

Democrat Brad Ellsworth held this Southwest Indiana seat for two terms, but it is an uphill fight for Democrats. Bucshon won 58%-37% in 2010. For 2012 the seat will lose territory from the north in Warren, Fountain, and Putnam Counties, and gain Dubois, Spencer, Perry, and part of Crawford County in the South. This theoretically makes the seat more Democratic, but in reality it won't matter much. LIKELY REPUBLICAN.

House 9 – Todd Young (R)

The current district leans Republican, but it switched hands three separate times in the last decade. Young had no problem beating incumbent Democrat Baron Hill 52%-42% in 2010. Redistricting made the seat much more Republican, to the point of being nearly out of reach for the Democrats. The seat picked up heavily Republican surburban territory in Johnson and Morgan Counties and rural Republican territory in Monroe and Lawrence Counties. It gives up more marginal territory in Southeast Indiana: Jennings, Ripley, Dearborn, Ohio, Switzerland, Jefferson, and part of Scott County. Young is probably the biggest winner in Indiana's redistricting. LEAN REPUBLICAN.

State of the Race - 5/21/11

2011-05-25T08:43:00.002-04:00

President Obama expands his lead this week based on a continued post-Osama bounce. We also see yet another a potential Republican contender opting not to run for President, a Democratic Governor getting a huge boost, and Democrats taking advantage of Republican divisions to win a Republican leaning New York House seat.

Off to the races!

President

Here is our weekly look at the field for the Republican nomination. Mitch Daniels goes away after announcing he isn't running. This increases the pressure on New Jersey Governor Chris Christie to run. Rudy Giuliani and Texas Governor Rick Perry make appearances on the longshot list after floating some trial balloons about running.

The Contenders

1. Mitt Romney of Massachusetts
2. Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota
3. Jon Huntsman of Utah

Dark Horses

4. Sarah Palin of Alaska
5. Representative Michele Bachmann of Minnesota
6. Herman Cain of Georgia
7. Governor Chris Christie of New Jersey
8. Newt Gingrich of Georgia
9. Representative Ron Paul of Texas
10. Governor Rick Perry of Texas
11. Rudy Giuliani of New York
12. Representative Paul Ryan of Wisconsin

President Obama ups his approval rating up a tick to 53%. These results continue to show a race to close to call, but with President Obama's re-election the most likely outcome with a 332-206 Electoral College victory. Potential outcomes range from a President Obama victory with 379 Electoral Votes to a Mitt Romney victory with 275 Electoral Votes. The most likely outcome shows a virtual repeat of 2008, except that Indiana and North Carolina are projected to go Republican. The closest state in the current projection is Missouri.

Safe Obama (149)
California
Connecticut
Delaware
DC
Hawaii
Illinois
Maryland
Massachusetts
New York
Rhode Island
Vermont

Likely Obama (53)
Maine
Michigan
New Jersey
Oregon
Washington

Lean Obama (61)
Iowa
Minnesota
Nevada
New Hampshire
New Mexico
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin

Toss Up Obama (69)
Colorado
Florida
Ohio
Virginia

Toss Up Romney (47)
Arizona
Indiana
Missouri
North Carolina

Lean Romney (53)
Arkansas
Georgia
Montana
South Carolina
South Dakota
Tennessee
West Virginia

Likely Romney (69)
Kansas
Kentucky
Louisiana
Mississippi
North Dakota
Texas

Safe Romney (37)
Alabama
Alaska
Idaho
Nebraska
Oklahoma
Utah
Wyoming

Popular Vote: Pres. Obama 52.4%, Romney 47.6%
Electoral Vote: Pres. Obama 332, Romney 206

Governors

West Virginia Governor Earl Ray Tomblin survived several primary challengers, and got a boost when Republicans nominated Bill Maloney, who was not their strongest option. Tomlin is putting up solid approval ratings and has huge leads over Maloney. This is looking like a no contest for the October special election, and Tomblin moves to Safe Democrat.

Kentucky Governor Steven Beshear has been all over the place, but is now polling over 50% with double digit leads over the relatively weak Republican David Williams. This also looks like a no contest.

Fourteen gubernatorial contests will take place over the next two years. Kentucky, Louisiana, and Mississippi will hold contests in 2011. The states listed below will hold elections in 2012. New Hampshire and Vermont have two year terms for its Governor, so the Granite and Green Mountain States will have a 2012 contest despite just conducting an election. The West Virginia Supreme Court declared that there must be a special election in October to fill the final year of the unexpired term of Joe Manchin. A regularly scheduled election will follow in 2012. We will list the special election until its completion, at which time it will be replaced by the regular election.

Republicans are assured at least a split of Governor's Mansions after 2012, as they lead 25-11 in races not coming up for election in the next two years. Right now we predict the Republicans to gain between a range of two and three Govenrnor's Mansions, with the most likely outcome being two.

Safe Democrat (3)
Delaware (Jack Markell)
Kentucky (Steve Beshear)
West Virginia special (Earl Ray Tomblin)

Likely Democrat (0)

Lean Democrat (2)
Missouri (Jay Nixon)
Vermont (Peter Shumlin)

Toss Up Democrat (1)
New Hampshire (John Lynch)

Toss Up Republican (0)

Lean Republican (3)
Indiana (Mitch Daniels retiring)
North Carolina (Bev Perdue)
Washington (Christine Gregoire)

Likely Republican (1)
Montana (Brian Schweitzer retiring)

Safe Republican (3)
Louisiana (Bobby Jindal)
Mississippi (Haley Barbour retiring)
North Dakota (Jack Dalrymple)
Utah (Gary Herbert)

Republicans: 33
Democrats: 17

Senate

Wisconsin Senator Herb Kohl announced his retirement this week. Kohl had limitless pockets and was well liked, so he was likely to get a pass. His departure turns the race into a tossup, which is just one more headache for the Democrats.

Democrats will be defending the seats they won in the big Democratic year of 2006, so they start on the defensive. Republicans lead the seats not up for election 37-30. We project a gain of three Republican seats, which would split the Senate in half with control being decided by the new Vice President. We see a range of anywhere from a push to an eight seat Republican pickup. Note this is basically in a neutral climate, so the advantage shown is a Republican structural advantage based on the cycle of seats up for election. There are quite a few Democratic seats that could be very difficult for them if they continue to struggle with public opinion, and that shows up in the large number of seats in the "Lean Democrat" columnn. In other words, if the climate is as toxic as it was in 2010 the Republicans would probably win all of those "Lean Democratic" seats and pick up double digit seats.

Safe Democrat (4)
Delaware (Tom Carper)
Hawaii (Daniel Akaka retiring)
New York (Kirsten Gillibrand)
Vermont (Bernie Sanders)

Likely Democrat (4)
California (Dianne Feinstein)
Connecticut (Joe Lieberman retiring)
Maryland (Ben Cardin)
Rhode Island (Sheldon Whitehouse)

Lean Democrat (7)
Florida (Bill Nelson)
Massachusetts (Scott Brown)
Michigan (Debbie Stabenow)
Minnesota (Amy Klobuchar)
New Jersey (Robert Menendez)
Pennsylvania (Robert Casey, Jr.)
Washington (Maria Cantwell)

Toss Up Democrat (5)
Nebraska (Ben Nelson)
Nevada (Dean Heller)
New Mexico (Jeff Bingaman retiring)
Ohio (Sherrod Brown)
Wisconsin (Herb Kohl retiring)

Toss Up Republican (3)
Missouri (Claire McCaskill)
Virginia (Jim Webb retiring)
West Virginia (Joe Manchin)

Lean Republican (4)
Arizona (Jon Kyl retiring)
Mississippi (Roger Wicker)
Montana (Jon Tester)
Tennessee (Bob Corker)

Likely Republican (1)
Maine (Olympia Snowe)

Safe Republican (5)
Indiana (Richard Lugar)
North Dakota (Kent Conrad retiring)
Texas (Kay Bailey Hutchison retiring)
Utah (Orrin Hatch)
Wyoming (John Barrasso)

Democrats: 50
Republicans: 50

House

Democrats won the special election last night for NY-26, thanks mostly to a divided GOP. Assuming the GOP gets its act together, the seat still leans Republican for November but redistricting could make a huge difference there.

Rep. Mazie Hirono announced she will vacate the HI-2 seat to run for the Senate seat being vacated by Daniel Akaka. The seat is and will remain safely Democratic. Two Republicans also announced Senate Runs, Todd Akin in Missouri and Rick Berg in North Dakota. Akin's MO-2 is probably safe, but I move the seat to likely Republican as a precaution. Berg is not the strongest incumbent, so his retirement actually moves the seat from Likely to Safe Republican.

This week's ratings include definite new maps for Indiana and Iowa, joining Arkansas on the list of definite maps including in the factoring. The rest of the states are projections of the most likely redistricting outcomes. Louisiana and Missouri have also completed maps, but I have not had a chance to review them.

This results in a few changes. Leonard Boswell's IA-3 moves from Tossup Democrat to Tossup Republican after he lost a couple of points of Democratic strength from his district and will receive a challenge from current Fourth District Rep. Tom Latham. (Latham is listed as retiring from IA-4 as Fifth District Rep. Steve King will run in the new IA-4 instead). IN-2, being vacated by Joe Donnelly, was made much more Republican and shifts to Lean Republican.

Here's how I handle redistricting. To simplify things, I am going to refer to districts by number as if they were constant. This will lead to reported "pickups" for parties that are just district renumberings, but I think doing it this way will help keep things straight. For example, New Jersey is on track to lose a seat. We will "eliminate" the highest numbered district in the state, NJ-13 held by Albio Sires. However, Sires will almost certainly have a district he can win, it will just have a different number. For argument's sake, let's say that Leonard Lance, a Republican currently representing the Seventh District, is effectively drawn out when his district is eliminated and parceled out among other districts, and Sires's district is renamed the Seventh. We will say that Sires's seat was eliminated but that the Democrats picked up the Seventh District. This will even out after we factor for all the states.

Under this format, the following districts will be eliminated.

IL-19 (John Shimkus)
IA-5 (Steve King)
LA-7 (Charles Boustany)
MA-10 (Bill Keating)
MI-15 (John Dingell)
MO-9 (Blaine Leutkemeyer)
NJ-13 (Albio Sires)
NY-28 (Louise Slaughter)
NY-29 (Tom Reed)
OH-17 (Tim Ryan)
OH-18 (Bob Gibbs)
PA-19 (Todd Platts)

That is seven Republicans and four Democrats. Expect most of these members to show up in other districts come 2013. For instance, King will run in IA-4 as the current incumbent there, Tom Latham, runs against Leonard Boswell in IA-3. These seats will be replaced by eleven new seats in other states. Those will be listed in italics. To help keep this all straight, we are going to break with tradition and list every seat, even in safe districts.

This gives the Republicans a six seat pickup as a base scenario, primarily due to redistricting. We envision a range, depending on the climate, of anywhere between a 38 seat Democratic pickup and a 42 seat Republican pickup. There are about 70 seats that form the potential battlefield for the 2012 elections.

Safe Democrat (101)
AL-7 (Terri Sewell)
AZ-4 (Ed Pastor)
CA-1 (Mike Thompson)
CA-5 (Doris Matsui)
CA-6 (Lynn Woolsey)
CA-7 (George Miller)
CA-8 (Nancy Pelosi)
CA-9 (Barbara Lee)
CA-10 (John Garamendi)
CA-12 (Jackie Speier)
CA-13 (Pete Stark)
CA-14 (Anna Eshoo)
CA-15 (Mike Honda)
CA-16 (Zoe Lofgren)
CA-17 (Sam Farr)
CA-27 (Brad Sherman)
CA-28 (Howard Berman)
CA-29 (Adam Schiff)
CA-30 (Henry Waxman)
CA-31 (Xavier Becerra)
CA-32 (Judy Chu)
CA-33 (Karen Bass)
CA-34 (Lucille Roybal-Allard)
CA-35 (Maxine Waters)
CA-36 special (VACANT)
CA-37 (Laura Richardson)
CA-38 (Grace Napolitano)
CA-39 (Linda Sanchez)
CA-43 (Joe Baca)
CA-53 (Susan Davis)
CO-1 (Diana DeGette)
CT-1 (John Larson)
CT-3 (Rosa DeLauro)
FL-3 (Corrine Brown)
FL-11 (Kathy Castor)
FL-17 (Frederica Wilson)
FL-19 (Ted Deutch)
FL-20 (Debbie Wasserman Schultz)
FL-23 (Alcee Hastings)
GA-4 (Hank Johnson)
GA-5 (John Lewis)
GA-13 (David Scott)
HI-2 (Mazie Hirono retiring)
IL-1 (Bobby Rush)
IL-2 (Jesse Jackson, Jr.)
IL-3 (Dan Lipinski)
IL-4 (Luis Gutierrez)
IL-5 (Mike Quigley)
IL-7 (Danny Davis)
IL-9 (Jan Schakowsky)
LA-2 (Cedric Richmond)
MD-2 (Dutch Ruppersberger)
MD-4 (Donna Edwards)
MD-5 (Steny Hoyer)
MD-7 (Elijah Cummings)
MD-8 (Chris Van Hollen)
MA-1 (John Olver)
MA-7 (Edward Markey)
MA-8 (Michael Capuano)
MA-9 (Stephen Lynch)
MI-12 (Sander Levin)
MI-13 (Hansen Clarke)
MI-14 (John Conyers)
MN-5 (Keith Ellison)
MS-2 (Bennie Thompson)
MO-1 (William Lacy Clay)
NV-1 (Shelley Berkley retiring)
NJ-1 (Robert Andrews)
NJ-8 (Bill Pascrell)
NJ-9 (Steven Rothman)
NJ-10 (Donald Payne)
NY-5 (Gary Ackerman)
NY-6 (Gregory Meeks)
NY-7 (Joseph Crowley)
NY-8 (Jerrold Nadler)
NY-10 (Edolphus Towns)
NY-11 (Yvette Clark)
NY-12 (Nydia Velazquez)
NY-14 (Carolyn Maloney)
NY-15 (Charles Rangel)
NY-16 (Jose Serrano)
NY-17 (Eliot Engel)
NY-18 (Nita Lowey)
NC-12 (Melvin Watt)
OH-11 (Marcia Fudge)
OR-3 (Earl Blumenauer)
PA-1 (Robert Brady)
PA-2 (Chaka Fattah)
SC-6 (James Clyburn)
TN-9 (Steve Cohen)
TX-9 (Al Green)
TX-18 (Sheila Jackson Lee)
TX-20 (Charles Gonzalez)
TX-29 (Gene Green)
TX-30 (Eddie Bernice Johnson)
VT-AL (Peter Welch)
VA-3 (Bobby Scott)
VA-8 (Jim Moran)
WA-7 (Jim McDermott)
WI-2 (Tammy Baldwin)
WI-4 (Gwen Moore)

Likely Democrat (28)
CA-18 (Dennis Cardoza)
CA-23 (Lois Capps)
CA-51 (Bob Filner)
CO-2 (Jared Polis)
CT-2 (Joe Courtney)
DE-AL (John Carney)
HI-1 (Colleeen Hanabusa)
IL-12 (Jerry Costello)
IN-1 (Peter Visclosky)
IN-7 (Andre Carson)
ME-1 (Chellie Pingree)
MD-3 (John Sarbanes)
MA-2 (Richard Neal)
MA-3 (Jim McGovern)
MA-6 (John Tierney)
MN-4 (Betty McCollum)
NM-3 (Ben Ray Lujan)
NY-9 (Anthony Weiner)
NY-21 (Paul Tonko)
NY-27 (Brian Higgins)
NC-1 (G.K. Butterfield)
NC-4 (David Price)
OH-9 (Marcy Kaptur)
RI-1 (David Cicilline)
RI-2 (Jim Langevin)
TX-16 (Silvestre Reyes)
WA-1 (Jay Inslee)
WA-6 (Norm Dicks)

Lean Democrat (22)
AR-4 (Mike Ross)
GA-12 (John Barrow)
KY-3 (John Yarmuth)
ME-2 (Michael Michaud)
MA-4 (Barney Frank)
MA-5 (Niki Tsongas)
MN-7 (Collin Peterson)
MO-5 (Emanuel Cleaver)
NJ-6 (Dave Pallone)
NM-1 (Martin Heinrich retiring)
NY-2 (Steve Israel)
NY-4 (Carolyn McCarthy)
NC-13 (Brad Miller)
OH-13 (Betty Sutton)
OR-1 (David Wu)
PA-13 (Allyson Schwartz)
PA-14 (Mike Doyle)
PA-17 (Tim Holden)
TN-5 (Jim Cooper)
TX-15 (Ruben Hinojosa)
TX-28 (Henry Cuellar)
WA-9 (Adam Smith)
WV-3 (Nick Rahall)

Toss Up Democrat (36)
AZ-7 (Raul Grijalva)
CA-20 (Jim Costa)
CA-47 (Loretta Sanchez)
CO-7 (Ed Perlmutter)
CT-4 (Jim Himes)
CT-5 (Chris Murphy retiring)
GA-2 (Sanford Bishop)
IL-10 (Robert Dold)
IA-1 (Bruce Braley)
IA-2 (Dave Loebsack)
MI-5 (Dale Kildee)
MI-9 (Gary Peters)
MN-1 (Tim Walz)
MO-3 (Russ Carnahan)
MN-8 (Chip Cravaack)
NV-3 (Joe Heck)
NV-4 (NEW)
NH-2 (Charlie Bass)
NJ-12 (Rush Holt)
NY-1 (Tim Bishop)
NY-22 (Maurice Hinchey)
NY-25 (Ann Marie Buerkle)
NC-7 (Mike McIntyre)
NC-8 (Larry Kissell)
NC-11 (Heath Shuler)
OH-10 (Dennis Kucinich)
OK-2 (Dan Boren)
OR-4 (Peter DeFazio)
OR-5 (Kurt Schrader)
PA-12 (Mark Critz)
TX-25 (Lloyd Doggett)
VA-11 (Gerald Connolly)
WA-2 (Rick Larsen)
WA-10 (NEW)
WI-3 (Ron Kind)
WI-7 (Sean Duffy)

Toss Up Republican (44)
AZ-1 (Paul Gosar)
AZ-5 (David Schweikert)
AZ-8 (Gabrielle Gifffords)
CA-3 (Dan Lungren)
CA-11 (Jerry McNerney)
CA-26 (David Dreier)
CA-45 (Mary Bono Mack)
CO-3 (Scott Tipton)
FL-12 (Dennis Ross)
FL-22 (Allen West)
FL-25 (David Rivera)
IL-8 (Joe Walsh)
IL-14 (Randy Hultgren)
IL-17 (Bobby Schilling)
IA-3 (Leonard Boswell)
KY-6 (Ben Chandler)
MI-1 (Dan Benishek)
MI-7 (Tim Walberg)
MN-6 (Michele Bachmann)
NH-1 (Frank Guinta)
NJ-3 (Jon Runyan)
NY-13 (Mike Grimm)
NY-19 (Nan Hayworth)
NY-20 (Christopher Gibson)
NY-23 (Bill Owens)
NY-24 (Richard Hanna)
NC-2 (Renee Ellmers)
OH-1 (Steve Chabot)
OH-6 (Bill Johnson)
OH-15 (Steve Stivers)
OH-16 (Jim Renacci)
PA-4 (Jason Altmire)
PA-7 (Patrick Meehan)
PA-8 (Michael Fitzpatrick)
PA-11 (Lou Barletta)
PA-15 (Charlie Dent)
SD-AL (Kristi Noem)
TX-23 (Quico Canseco)
TX-27 (Blake Farenthold)
UT-2 (Jim Matheson)
VA-5 (Robert Hurt)
WA-3 (Jaime Herrera)
WA-8 (Dave Reichert)
WI-8 (Reid Ribble)

Lean Republican (25)
AZ-3 (Ben Quayle)
AR-1 (Rick Crawford)
AR-2 (Tim Griffin)
CA-44 (Ken Calvert)
CA-50 (Brian Bilbray)
CO-4 (Cory Gardner)
FL-2 (Steve Southerland)
FL-8 (Daniel Webster)
GA-8 (Austin Scott)
IL-11 (Adam Kinzinger)
IN-2 (Joe Donnelly retiring)
IN-9 (Todd Young)
KS-3 (Kevin Yoder)
MN-3 (Erik Paulsen)
NM-2 (Steve Pearce)
NY-26 (Kathy Hochul)
NV-2 special (VACANT)
PA-3 (Mike Kelly)
PA-6 (Jim Gerlach)
PA-10 (Thomas Marino)
SC-2 (Joe Wilson)
SC-5 (Mick Mulvaney)
VA-2 (Scott Rigell)
VA-9 (Morgan Griffith)
WV-1 (David McKinley)

Likely Republican (20)
AL-2 (Martha Roby)
AL-3 (Mike Rogers)
CA-2 (Wally Herger)
CA-24 (Elton Gallegly)
CA-48 (John Campbell)
FL-24 (Sandy Adams)
FL-26 (NEW)
ID-1 (Raul Labrador)
IN-8 (Larry Bucshon)
MD-1 (Andy Harris)
MI-3 (Justin Amash)
MI-11 (Thaddeus McCotter)
MS-1 (Alan Nunnelee)
MO-2 (Todd Akin retiring)
MO-4 (Vicky Hartzler)
MT-AL (Denny Rehberg retiring)
NJ-7 (Leonard Lance)
OH-12 (Pat Tiberi)
TN-8 (Stephen Fincher)
VA-7 (Eric Cantor)

Safe Republican (158)
AL-1 (Jo Bonner)
AL-4 (Robert Aderholt)
AL-5 (Mo Brooks)
AL-6 (Spencer Bachus)
AK-AL (Don Young)
AZ-2 (Trent Franks)
AZ-6 (Jeff Flake retiring)
AZ-9 (NEW)
AR-3 (Steve Womack)
CA-4 (Tom McClintock)
CA-19 (Jeff Denham)
CA-21 (Devin Nunes)
CA-22 (Kevin McCarthy)
CA-25 (Buck McKeon)
CA-40 (Ed Royce)
CA-41 (Jerry Lewis)
CA-42 (Gary Miller)
CA-46 (Dana Rohrabacher)
CA-49 (Darrell Issa)
CA-52 (Duncan D. Hunter)
CO-5 (Doug Lamborn)
CO-6 (Mike Coffman)
FL-1 (Jeff Miller)
FL-4 (Ander Crenshaw)
FL-5 (Richard Nugent)
FL-6 (Cliff Stearns)
FL-7 (John Mica)
FL-9 (Gus Bilirakis)
FL-10 (Bill Young)
FL-13 (Vern Buchanan)
FL-14 (Connie Mack)
FL-15 (Bill Posey)
FL-16 (Tom Rooney)
FL-18 (Ileana Ros-Lehtinen)
FL-21 (Mario Diaz-Balart)
FL-27 (NEW)
GA-1 (Jack Kingston)
GA-3 (Lynn Westmoreland)
GA-6 (Tom Price)
GA-7 (Rob Woodall)
GA-9 (Tom Graves)
GA-10 (Paul Broun)
GA-11 (Phil Gingrey)
GA-14 (NEW)
ID-2 (Mike Simpson)
IL-6 (Peter Roskam)
IL-13 (Judy Biggert)
IL-15 (Tim Johnson)
IL-16 (Don Manzullo)
IL-18 (Aaron Schock)
IN-3 (Marlin Stutzman)
IN-4 (Todd Rokita)
IN-5 (Dan Burton)
IN-6 (Mike Pence retiring)
IA-4 (Tom Latham retiring)
KS-1 (Tim Huelskamp)
KS-2 (Lynn Jenkins)
KS-4 (Mike Pompeo)
KY-1 (Ed Whitfield)
KY-2 (Brett Guthrie)
KY-4 (Geoff Davis)
KY-5 (Harold Rogers)
LA-1 (Steve Scalise)
LA-3 (Jeff Landry)
LA-4 (John Fleming)
LA-5 (Rodney Alexander)
LA-6 (Bill Cassidy)
MD-6 (Roscoe Bartlett)
MI-2 (Bill Huizenga)
MI-4 (Dave Camp)
MI-6 (Fred Upton)
MI-8 (Mike Rogers)
MI-10 (Candice Miller)
MN-2 (John Kline)
MS-3 (Gregg Harper)
MS-4 (Steven Palazzo)
MO-6 (Sam Graves)
MO-7 (Billy Long)
MO-8 (Jo Ann Emerson)
NE-1 (Jeff Fortenberry)
NE-2 (Lee Terry)
NE-3 (Adrian Smith)
NJ-2 (Frank LoBiondo)
NJ-4 (Chris Smith)
NJ-5 (Scott Garrett)
NJ-11 (Rodney Frelinghuysen)
NY-3 (Peter King)
NC-3 (Walter Jones)
NC-5 (Virginia Foxx)
NC-6 (Howard Coble)
NC-9 (Sue Myrick)
NC-10 (Patrick McHenry)
ND-AL (Rick Berg retiring)
OH-2 (Jean Schmidt)
OH-3 (Mike Turner)
OH-4 (Jim Jordan)
OH-5 (Bob Latta)
OH-7 (Steve Austria)
OH-8 (John Boehner)
OH-14 (Steven LaTourette)
OK-1 (John Sullivan)
OK-3 (Frank Lucas)
OK-4 (Tom Cole)
OK-5 (James Lankford)
OR-2 (Greg Walden)
PA-5 (Glenn Thompson)
PA-9 (Bill Shuster)
PA-16 (Joe Pitts)
PA-18 (Tim Murphy)
SC-1 (Tim Scott)
SC-3 (Jeff Duncan)
SC-4 (Trey Gowdy)
SC-7 (NEW)
TN-1 (Phil Roe)
TN-2 (John Duncan)
TN-3 (Chuck Fleischmann)
TN-4 (Scott DesJarlais)
TN-6 (Diane Black)
TN-7 (Marsha Blackburn)
TX-1 (Louie Gohmert)
TX-2 (Ted Poe)
TX-3 (Sam Johnson)
TX-4 (Ralph Hall)
TX-5 (Jeb Hensarling)
TX-6 (Joe Barton)
TX-7 (John Culberson)
TX-8 (Kevin Brady)
TX-10 (Michael McCaul)
TX-11 (Mike Conaway)
TX-12 (Kay Granger)
TX-13 (Mac Thornberry)
TX-14 (Ron Paul)
TX-17 (Bill Flores)
TX-19 (Randy Neugebauer)
TX-21 (Lamar Smith)
TX-22 (Pete Olson)
TX-24 (Kenny Marchant)
TX-26 (Michael Burgess)
TX-31 (John Carter)
TX-32 (Pete Sessions)
TX-33 (NEW)
TX-34 (NEW)
TX-35 (NEW)
TX-36 (NEW)
UT-1 (Rob Bishop)
UT-3 (Jason Chaffetz)
UT-4 (NEW)
VA-1 (Rob Wittman)
VA-4 (Randy Forbes)
VA-6 (Bob Goodlatte)
VA-10 (Frank Wolf)
WA-4 (Doc Hastings)
WA-5 (Cathy McMorris Rodgers)
WV-2 (Shelley Moore Capito)
WI-1 (Paul Ryan)
WI-5 (Jim Sensenbrenner)
WI-6 (Tom Petri)
WY-AL (Cynthia Lummis)

Republicans: 247
Democrats: 190

State of the Day - Illinois

2011-05-24T20:11:00.000-04:00

Illinois has a bit of everything: big city Democratic Chicago and Republican Downstate, corruption and high mindedness, political brutality and eloquence. Chicago has been one of America’s great metropolises of the last 150 years. It is a diverse, vibrant center of commerce, finance, and transportation. In the past century, Illinois has produced important political figures of both parties, most recently the President of the United States, Barack Obama. Traditionally, Democratic Chicago and Republican Downstate combined to create a great swing state, but over the past twenty years Illinois has become rather Democratic. It has been and remains a bastion of machine politics and corruption, on both sides. Chicago remains a Democratic bastion whose politics are dominated by the Mayor. Former Mayors Richard Daley (Richard J., 1955-1976 and his son Richard M., 1989-2011) were popular figures and helped suburban Chicago shift Democratic, which has made the difference statewide. Democrats benefitted in the early 2000’s from corruption and scandals surrounding Republican Governor George Ryan and 2004 Senate candidate Jim Ryan, but had their own corruption issues which culminated in the 2009 impeachment and removal of Democratic Governor Rod Blagojevich. The stench of the fallout ruined the political career of former Senator (2009-2010) Roland Burris and almost ended the career of new Democratic Governor Pat Quinn.

These factors along with the national Republican tide helped Republicans rebuild their suburban vote. They were able to take four House seats and narrowly capture the Senate seat formerly held by President Obama. However, Quinn managed to survive and Democrats held the Legislature.

As a result, Democrats will control a redistricting process in which Illinois will lose one seat. They will feel pressure to maximize their numbers, given that this is one of the few sizable states in which Democrats control redistricting. The Democrats will seek to eliminate a Republican seat and endanger the remaining Republicans in marginal seats, especially the five Republican freshmen. Destabilizing the freshmen should be relatively easy. The problem for Democrats is that based on population estimates published in 2009, the lost seat will pretty much have to come from the City of Chicago. Assuming nobody retires, expect one Chicago Democrat to be thrown in with another. The leading candidate for elimination would be Mike Quigley's Fifth District, as he is the most junior of these Representatives and not a minority. Then again, presumably the District's former Representative, new Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel, would throw his weight in opposition to that. If they do draw out Quigley, redistricters can use some of the city territory to draw tougher districts for Republicans Peter Roskam (Sixth District), Joe Walsh (Eighth District), and Robert Dold (Tenth District). Another option Democrats could pursue would be to carve up the sprawling, odd looking Seventeenth District won by Bobby Schilling and disperse it to his Republican neighbors. Still, this is less likely because chain effects would probably result in the marginal suburban seats becoming more Republican and Democrats have pretty good hopes of winning this seat back. Illinois has a good number of swing seats at the moment, and whatever happens the districts will probably become more one sided after a partisan redistricting plan.

Illinois – 20 Electoral Votes

Illinois is not totally out of reach for Republicans in a big GOP year, but this is President Obama's home state.

The primary moves from Super Tuesday to March 20 for 2012, likely making the state irrelevant to determining the Republican nominee. In a big state where suburban voters will be key to a Republican primary, I'd rate Mitt Romney to have an edge. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

Governor – Pat Quinn (D)

Quinn became Governor in January, 2009 after the impeachment and removal of Governor Rod Buffoonovich. The new Governor had never really been viewed as a potential Governor, and faced immediate problems dealing with widespread ethical problems in state government and a fiscal disaster. He faced a strong primary challenge from State Comptroller Dan Hynes, and barely held him off by a little under 9,000 votes. Immediately after the primary, Democrats scrambled to contain the news that the nominee for Lieutenant Governor had a record of domestic violence. After much discussion the nominee resigned, but in true Illinois fashion, he ran as an independent candidate. Quinn trailed Republican Bill Brady throughout the fall.

Yet, Quinn managed to win reelection by 19,000 votes. This is a huge indictment of Brady. Given that Mark Kirk won a Senate seat with much less going for him, Republicans really should have won this race. Quinn now continues in a terrible fiscal situation with a "mandate" of 46%. He has already passed a massive tax increase. Good luck. TOSSUP DEMOCRAT.

Senior Senator – Richard Durbin (D)

Durbin's subtle, yet feverish contest with Chuck Schumer for Majority Leader went splat after Nevada Republicans sent Harry Reid back to the Senate. Durbin will have no problems in 2014. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

Junior Senator – Mark Kirk (R)

Kirk had demonstrated some serious appeal to Democratic leaning suburbanites in his five House terms, easily coasting through even during terrible Republican years. Illinois Democrats had serious ethical issues starting with former Governor Rod Blagojevich. Those issues extended to this Senate seat when Blagojevich was arrested for trying to sell the appointment, and his eventual appointee, Roland Burris, lied about his dealings with the Governor. Missing the hint, Democrats nominated a very ethically troubled candidate, Alexi Giannoulias. On top of all of this, 2010 was the best Republican year since 1948.

Despite all this, Kirk won only 48%-46%. This reflects not only some issues Kirk had with inflating his military service resume, but also Illinois's deeply Democratic makeup. Kirk's victory was a true "Bloomberg" (perfect political storm). He has all the makings of a one termer. TOSSUP DEMOCRAT.

House 1 – Bobby Rush (D)

Rush is the newest member of the Frank White Club, consisting of those who defeated a future President in an election. This South Side Chicago seat is one of the safest Democratic seats in the nation. It needs to pick up 73,000 people, but nobody is in a hurry to eliminate majority black districts. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

House 2 – Jesse Jackson Jr. (D)

Whatever problems Jackson had in the Blagojevich mess, they do not matter here. Obama won 90% in this Chicago Heights based seat. The seat needs to pick up 60,000 people, and even if all of them were Republicans it would not mean squat. Democrats might try to use this as a way to weaken Adam Kinzinger in the adjacent Eleventh District. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

House 3 – Daniel Lipinski (D)

Lipinski was the one pro-life Democrat who held out and voted against the health bill, despite this safe Democratic district. This South Side district is home to many voters of European ethnic ancestry and needs to pick up 53,000 people. It also might pick up some suburban territory. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

House 4 – Luis Gutierrez (D)

Gutierrez is hardly Mr. Popularity in Washington, but he has no problems here in Central Chicago. This jump rope shaped seat needs to pick up 95,000 people. Still, we can be sure some sort of Hispanic majority seat will remain, so Gutierrez should be fine. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

House 5 – Mike Quigley (D)

Quigley won this seat in April 2009 when Rahm Emanuel moved over to serve as White House Chief of Staff. Rumors swirled that Emanuel would return to oust Quigley, but his new role as Mayor of Chicago should put the kibosh on that. Quigley's biggest problem in this North Side seat is redistricting. Chicago will probably have to lose a seat in redistricting and while this seat hasn't lost as much population as others (it needs 58,000 people), eliminating the junior Quigley would be the easiest thing from a political and racial perspective. Quigley may find himself in an unwinnable race against either Peter Roskam in a mostly suburban district or against another Democrat in a minority majority district. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

House 6 – Peter Roskam (R)

Roskam has nailed down this marginal suburban district. The seat needs to pick up 45,000 people in redistricting. Since it does not appear Roskam is vulnerable, the smart move for Democrats would be to make this seat more Republican at the expense of surrounding marginal Republicans Joe Walsh, Robert Dold, and Randy Hultgren. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 7 – Danny Davis (D)

This is about as bad as gets for Republicans. However, the black majority Central Chicago seat needs to gain 96,000 people. From a geographical and population perspective, it is the easiest district in the state to eliminate, but that will not happen for political and Voting Rights Act reasons. Davis should return in 2013. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

House 8 – Joe Walsh (R)

Walsh ran a poor campaign, but the huge GOP wave enabled him to skirt by three term Rep. Melissa Bean 49%-48%. Walsh will have to step it up to be reelected, especially since his district will probably become less friendly in redistricting. The seat has grown and needs to lose about 20,000 people. Still, it wouldn't be hard to transfer some of the most Republican areas to Peter Roskam, making this seat even more marginal. TOSSUP REPUBLICAN.

House 9 – Jan Schakowsky (D)

This North Side/Evanston seat needs to pick up 87,000 people, but it should not be enough of an issue to keep Schakowsky out of the 113th Congress. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

House 10 – Robert Dold (R)

This Suburban Chicago seat trended Democratic througout the 2000's, but former Rep. Mark Kirk held it even as it developed a Democratic lean. By all accounts it should have gone Democratic when Kirk left. It did not do so for two reasons. First, this was a huge Republican year, especially in the suburbs. Secondly, Democratic nominee Dan Seals was incompetent. He has now lost this seat three elections in a row, each time in a race he should have won. In this circumstance, Dold's 51%-49% victory bodes poorly. The seat needs to pick up 54,000 people, and it would be really easy to flood this district with Democrats. Dold is one of the most vulnerable members of the House. TOSSUP DEMOCRAT.

House 11 – Adam Kinzinger (R)

This Suburban Chicago/Joliet/Bloomington district is as marginal as they come. Democrat Debbie Halvorson won it 58%-34% in 2008 thanks to a big Democratic wind, but she still ran five percent ahead of Barack Obama. She didn't take, however, and suffered an embarrassing 57%-43% loss to Kinzinger in 2010. Kinzinger is in better shape than his fellow freshman because the seat needs to lose 25,000 people and is surronded by Republican territory. LEAN REPUBLICAN.

House 12 – Jerry Costello (D)

This East St. Louis/Southwestern Illinois seat is actually a marginal district, but you’d never know it based on Costello’s performances. The seat needs to pick up 53,000 people, but it shouldn't make a difference as long as Costello runs. LIKELY DEMOCRAT.

House 13 – Judy Biggert (R)

Biggert survived waves in this marginal Naperville/Joliet seat, and cruised in 2010. She seems safe as long as she runs. This fast growing seat needs to lose 58,000 people. SAFE REPUBLICAN

House 14 – Randy Hultgren (R)

Denny Hastert’s old Suburban Chicago/Northern Illinois seat has trended Democratic enough to where it could go either way in electionS, and so it has. Democrat Bill Foster won two elections in 2008 against an unappealing Republican. He lost 51%-45% to Hultgren in 2010. Hultgren's seat needs to lose 76,000 people, which could play either way in redistricting. He could shed that into even more Republican surrounding areas, or Democrats could choose to make Hultgren safer in hopes of destabilizing Kinzinger, Walsh, or Bobby Schilling. TOSSUP REPUBLICAN.

House 15 – Tim Johnson (R)

The moderate Johnson has iced this Republican leaning Eastern Downstate seat. He needs to pick up 44,000 people, but Democratic redistricters will find that from excess Republicans in surrounding districts. SAFE REPUBLICAN

House 16 – Don Manzullo (R)

Manzullo’s greatest contribution to the GOP was his suggestion that the Illinois GOP invite Alan Keyes to run for the Senate in 2004. Somehow he kept his reputation past that, entrenching himself in this marginal Northern Illinois seat. His seat needs to lose 7,000 people. The likely result is a more Republican district while surrounding territory becomes more Democratic. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 17 – Bobby Schilling (R)

Democrat Phil Hare seemed to think he had a safe seat, where in actuality this Western Illinois seat is very marginal. Schilling took advantage of Hare's sloth and won 53%-43%. This seat needs 82,000 people and as an oddly shaped district that hugs the state border, it would be easy to eliminate. Democrats could certainly do so, but I suspect they won't. If they do, they will ensure that the four marginal suburban Chicago seats become more Republican. I do not think that Democrats will trade the sure elimination of a Republican seat for the strengthening of four Republicans elsewhere. Besides, Schilling is vulnerable. TOSSUP REPUBLICAN.

House 18 – Aaron Schock (R)

The boy wonder is safe in this Peoria based seat. It does need to pick up 54,000 people. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 19 – John Shimkus (R)

Parts of this district are closer to Mississippi than Chicago. It is not a totally safe Republican seat, but is the closes thing to one in Illinois. Shimkus will pick up 51,000 new people and move on with his career. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

The Perpetual Mess: Israel and Palestine

2011-05-24T10:02:00.004-04:00

With pressure for peace between the Israelis and Palestinians growing and a U.S. President eager to construct a lasting solution, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has begun to be viewed as a huge part, if not the primary part, of the problem. Netanyahu is a hard right politician wary of any deal with the Palestinians, and he appears unlikely to reach a peace agreement as long as he is Prime Minister. At times the public is left wondering if the American government is not actively seeking the downfall of Netanyahu's government.

That roughly describes the situation today. But, it also describes the situation in 1997. Netanyahu did go on to negotiate the Wye River Accords in 1998, but lost his position in 1999 over domestic matters. This brought to power the dovish Ehud Barak and the key moment in recent Israeli-Palestinan relations. In late 2000, President Bill Clinton desperately sought to achieve a solution. Barak went farther than any Israeli Prime Minister ever had, indeed probably further than any could politically. Still, Yasser Arafat rejected the entreaty, Barak's government went down, and Israel has been led since by hawkish leaders Ariel Sharon, Ehud Olmert, and Netanyahu. Still attempts continued to solve the problem. Sharon even unilaterally withdrew the Israeli presence from Gaza. His reward was a base from which Hamas launched rockets into Israel.

In other words, we are stuck in a cycle. Every American President tries to fix this, and never gets anywhere. President Obama will prove no exception. I'm not going to try to assign blame for this long running dispute. That's pointless and only makes things worse. The important thing is making a conscious decision to embrace a hopeful future. Quite frankly, the Israelis have been a mile better at this over the past sixty years than the Palestinians.

Life has not been peachy for the Israelis post World War II. After the world Jewish population was devastated by the Nazis, they founded a state on a small strip of resourceless land surrounded by enemies. Immediately they found themselves invaded by pretty much every nation in the Arab world. This scenario repeated itself in 1967 and 1973. Even when not at war, the Israeli population has found itself imperiled by terrorism, most poignantly when their Olympic team was massacred by terrorists in 1972.

Despite all this, Israel has managed to build a stable democracy with a booming economy. They have refused to play the victim and determined to build a strong society despite everything. Certainly they have made mistakes and contributed to the ongoing problems with the Palestinians. Whatever ones opinion on the conflict, you must admire the Israeli achievement.

The Palestinians have not been as plucky and have redefined "playing the victim". Yes, it is unfortunate that many Palestinians were forcibly evicted from their homes in the aftermath of the Israeli independence. That might have violated international law. However, too many Palestinians have spent decades loudly demanding to go back instead of building a life for themselves. Too many Palestinians have spent their entire lives in refugee camps for the sake of an idea. Rather than undertake a Gandhiesque program of peaceful/nonviolent resistance, the Palestinians have chosen to engage in violence against the Israeli population. They have chosen corrupt leaders who have sabotaged their own society in the name of a cause. It is almost as if the Palestinians are so attached to their narrative that they cannot take the opportunity to seize a better future if it means abandoning that victimhood mindset.

I cannot judge whether the Israeli polity is ready and eager to make peace, though creating a stable peace would certainly fit in with their narrative of building a society. I can say that the Palestinians have a dysfunctional society which is the equivalent of a failed state. Until this changes, there will be no solution to the wider conflict. I am not optimistic.

How Would History Be Different?

2011-05-23T16:30:00.003-04:00

If Mahatma Gandhi and Yasser Arafat switched places in history?

Is it possible that an independent and democratic Palestine would be thriving and becoming an economic power, while India would be racked with violence both between Hindus and Muslims and the occupying British power?

State of the Day - Idaho

2011-05-23T15:15:00.000-04:00

Idaho is one of America’s quiet boom areas. It has become a center for growing businesses and retains much of its pioneer, self sufficient spirit. The state has attracted quite a few newcomers, most of whom have simply added to the state’s Republican majority. National Democrats are not popular here. However, as the economy has slipped Democrats have done a bit better, taking a House seat in 2008 against a controversial Republican incumbent.

Democrats lost that House seat right back in the 2010 disaster. Idaho votes very Republican and should continue to do so for the immediate future.

Redistricting is done by a bipartisan commission. Expect only minor changes to shift 49,000 people from the Second to the First District to meet equal population standards. Both districts should continue to be heavily Republican.

President – 4 Electoral Votes

If you read stuff like this, you know the answer.

The May 22 primary will almost certainly not matter. If it does, Mitt Romney, Jon Huntsman (large Mormon population) and Sarah Palin (attended college here) have decent bases in Idaho. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

Governor – C.L. “Butch” Otter (R)

Proving Idaho leans more libertarian than Christian Coalition, keep in mind that Otter is a former Mr. Tight Jeans of the Rockin’ Rodeo in Boise. Otter easily survived a challenge from two disgruntled Tea Party candidates and had only token competition from Democrat Keith Allred, whom he beat 59%-33%. Otter will be term limited in 2014, but there is no reason to think Democrats can compete for the Governor's Mansion. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

Senior Senator – Mike Crapo (R)

Crapo suffered a huge dropoff, going from 99% in 2004 to a 71%-25% win in 2010. He is completely safe in 2016. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

Junior Senator – James Risch (R)

As long as Risch remains careful with the width of his stance, he will have this seat as long as he wants. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 1 – Raul Labrador (R)

Democrat Walt Minnick won this overwhelmingly Republican West Idaho seat (36% for Obama) in 2008 due mainly to the controversial, incompetent, and generally buffoonish freshman Republican incumbent Bill Sali. Minnick did everything right and caught a break when Republicans nominated Tea Partier Raul Labrador, a terrible fundraiser and self-styled "extreme conservative". This being Idaho in 2010, however, Labrador still won 51%-41%. This district is so Republican that Labrador will probably be fine. Still, Democrats have run well here in the past against similarly far right types like Sali and Helen Chenoweth. Labrador is well within that tradition and may very well make some missteps. LIKELY REPUBLICAN.

House 2 – Mike Simpson (R)

Compared to the people the Idaho Republicans come up with to contest the other seat (Labrador, Sali, Congress”man” Helen Chenoweth Hage), Simpson is a fresh breath of sane conservatism. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

Dropouts

2011-05-22T22:53:00.002-04:00

In the last two weeks, we have seen a rash of potential Republican Presidential candidates opting not to run for the nomination. How do the departures of Donald Trump, Haley Barbour, Mike Huckabee, and Mitch Daniels affect the race?

Let's do the easy part first. Donald Trump was never a serious candidate for President. His departure probably will reduce the entertainment value of primary debates, but it has no other effect. He had no chance of winning, and no constituency to leave up for grabs. Forget it.

Barbour, Daniels, and Huckabee were more serious contenders. Barbour brought a solid record as Governor of Mississippi but no obvious issue. Daniels was a favorite of good governance types well positioned to appeal to fiscal Tea Party types. Huckabee was a favorite of evangelicals.

Their departure leaves three serious Republicans: Mitt Romney, Tim Pawlenty, and Jon Huntsman. However, Romney and Huntsman are not going to naturally appeal to either Tea Partiers or evangelicals. Pawlenty is trying his hardest to appeal to this group, but he does not begin his quest as a natural destination for these voters.

The end result of all this is to guarantee that one of the second tier candidates will become a major factor. The candidates in this group will not win the nomination, but one of Michele Bachmann, Rick Santorum, or Herman Cain will become a factor. (Newt Gingrich has already pretty much killed himself).

The big winner? Sarah Palin. If she runs, she could easily become the favorite of a large number of evangelicals and Tea Partiers, and if say Romney and Huntsman divide the opposition to those groups, she might have enough goodwill to win the nomination. Of course, then she'd still have to run in a general election. This is the rest of the post

Dems Energy Ideas Fail Econ 101

2011-05-22T18:24:00.004-04:00

Econ 101, a class that way too many of our elected officials do not seem to have had, tells us the following:

1. In a competitive (non-monopolist) market, price of a good is a function of cost to produce and amount of the good available for sale (as well as the demand for the product).

2. Increasing the cost of production increases the price of the good, and decreasing the cost of production of the good will decrease the cost of the good.

3. Taxing the good increases the price of the good to the consumer, and reducing taxes of the good (or subsidizing it) will reduce the price to the consumer.

With these basic precepts in mind, consider the following:

1. Many Democrats have supported some form of tax on carbon or a cap in the amount of carbon emissions allowed. As carbon emissions are a major part of producing gasoline, taxing or limiting the supply of them would increase the cost of producing gasoline. This would inevitably lead to an increase in a cost of gasoline to the consumer. This is "necessarily" so, according to the President.

2. Many Democrats, led by Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) and Sen. Charles Schumer (D-NY) are now advocating changing subsidies in the tax code to effect what amounts to an increase in taxes for gasoline producers. Basic Econ 101 also tells us that this will increase gas prices.

There may be good reasons for these policies, but whatever those reasons one of the byproducts of adopting these policies will clearly and inevitably be an increase in the cost of gasoline.

Yet, Democrats are now complaining about gas prices being too high. My advice is this: if you want gas prices to down, QUIT ADVOCATING POLICIES DESIGNED TO DRIVE UP THE COST OF GASOLINE.

State of the Day - Hawaii

2011-05-22T12:22:00.000-04:00

Hawaii, essentially conquered by the United States in the 1890’s, is a geographically and culturally unique state. The state has a long history of tolerance and is very diverse: 39% Asian, 25% White, 8% Native Hawaiian, and 8% Hispanic. Hawaii has been dominated since statehood by a Democratic political machine that that has built a large government apparatus and imposes high taxes. Agriculture has declined, and the main economic pillars are now tourism and the military. This has led to a weak economy that is very prone to recession and its most talented youth go elsewhere to get ahead (like Barack Obama). Discontent with this situation allowed Republican Linda Lingle to defeat the ancient Democratic machine and win the Governor’s Mansion in 2002. Another constant issue is the status of Native Hawaiians. Democratic Senator Daniel Akaka has failed for a decade to pass his bill granting sovereignty to this group. The state’s natural environment is always a contentious issue, as well.

Hawaii was one of the very few states where Democrats made gains in 2010. Democrat Neil Abercrombie won back the Governor's Mansion for the party, while Democrats also took back Abercrombie's old House seat, which Republicans had won in fluke circumstances in a special election earlier in the year. After a brief "flirtation" with Republicans a few years ago, Hawaii seems comfortable again as one of the most Democratic states.

Redistricting is controlled by commission, which has recently begun its work. Expect only minor changes to equalize the population by moving 13,000 people from the First to the Second Districts. It will not make a substantive difference.

President – 4 Electoral Votes

Hawaii is by any measure an overwhelmingly Democratic state. It does seem to have a soft spot for Republican incumbents, going for Richard Nixon in 1972 and Ronald Reagan in 1984 and giving George W. Bush a shockingly high 45% in 2004. Hawaii really loved its native son Barack Obama, giving him an astounding 72%-27% margin in 2008. Obama will not lose Hawaii in 2008, because if he found himself in that position he would likely find himself forced into not running for reelection. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

Governor – Neil Abercrombie (D)

Republican Governor Linda Lingle had high job ratings, but was unable to transfer them to her Lieutenant Governor Duke Aiona. Some late polling showed the race close but Abercrombie beat him 58%-41%. Not only is Hawaii heavily Democratic, but it has never failed to reelect a Governor. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

Senior Senator – Daniel Inouye (D)

With the deaths of Ted Kennedy and Robert Byrd, Inouye has become President Pro Tempore of the Senate. His status in Hawaii goes beyond any title. He is beyond safe and clobbered State Rep. Cam Cavasso 75%-21% in 2010. I suspect he will die in the Senate. He certainly won't be voted out. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

Junior Senator – Daniel Akaka (D)

Akaka has decided to retire. Former Republican Governor Linda Lingle could make a strong run, but if she passes the GOP has no chance.

Former Second District Rep. Ed Case has already announced his candidacy for the nomination. Case is a non-establishment Democrat who lost primaries against establishment candidates for Senate (to Daniel Akaka) and the First District (Colleen Hanabusa) in the last six years. The Hawaii Democratic machine will almost certainly put up a candidate against case, probably one of Reps. Hanabusa or Mazie Hirono, Honolulu Mayor Mufi Hannemann, or Lt. Governor Brian Schatz. Case will probably lose to one of the establishment candidates, but if multiple establishment types run they could split the vote and allow Case to take the nomination. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

House 1 – Colleen Hanabusa (D)

The Honolulu seat is by any measure an overwhelmingly Democratic seat. When Neil Abercrombie resigned to run for Governor, Republican Charles Djou and Democrats Hanabusa and Ed Case (a former Second District Congressman) ran. Hawaii special elections are simply a one round open primary, plurality take all election. Thus, Case and Hanabuse split the vote, allowing Djou to win with 40%. Case did not contest the general election, and running one on one with Djou Hanabusa beat him 53%-47%. Djou's victory was a fluke based on the electoral setup and it is unlikely that Hanabusa will have any problems going forward. LIKELY DEMOCRAT.

House 2 – Mazie Hirono (D)

Hirono has no threats in this safe Democratic “rest of the state” seat. She won by a 72%-25% margin over a Republican who emphasized "securing the border", hardly a pressing problem in Hawaii. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

Borrowing From Pension Funds Nothing New

2011-05-22T10:03:00.003-04:00

The United States hit its debt limit last Monday. According to Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, the nation is temporarily dealing with this by tapping money from pension funds, while promising to pay back those funds later. This is obviously not a good thing and makes the nation look like a fiscal basket case. Even so, the situation should sound familiar because the nation has been doing something similar nearly every day for the past seventy years.

Congress has been borrowing from the nation's largest pension fund, Social Security, since almost the moment of its inception. Throughout most of the lifespan of the program, Social Security taxes have raised more than they paid out in benefits. This excess was "invested in U.S. Treasury Bills", in other words borrowed by the general fund to pay for general budget items. Like the funds Geithner is raiding now, these notes respresent a promise to repay the Social Security fund.

In other words, Social Security is for all intents and purposes part of general revenue. When somebody says, "Social Security is fine because the trust fund will last until 2030-something because it has money in the trust fund", they're being disingenous because that trust fund money has already been spent. Providing money to the trust fund means that money will have to be borrowed to pay for something else in the general fund.

Even the putative trust fund may peter out earlier than expected because of inflation. Social Security benefits go up with inflation, but the Treasury notes that "fund" the trust fund do not. That's a good formula for fiscal disaster.

Yes, the United States is a fiscal basket case. However, that's nothing new.This is the rest of the post

State of the Day - Georgia

2011-05-20T22:58:00.000-04:00

Georgia, fueled by booming Metro Atlanta, has been one of the great growth states of the past fifty years. Led by a savvy business community (think Coca-Cola) and the moral power of Martin Luther King, Jr., Georgia integrated much more smoothly and peaceably than its Deep South brethren during the Civil Rights Era and has benefited ever since. Ironically, the key political figure was Governor Jimmy Carter (1971-1975), the first politician to win the support of both blacks and traditionally conservative and segregationist voters in rural Georgia and the first Southern Governor to openly embrace integration. The tolerant culture and healthy economy has helped attract blacks and other immigrants. Democrats managed to maintain their traditional dominance here through 2000. The dam finally broke in 2002, when Republicans defeated Democratic Governor Roy Barnes and Senator Max Cleland. In 2004, Republican Johnny Isakson easily took the Senate seat of the retiring “Democrat” Zell Miller and Republicans took over the Legislature for the first time since reconstruction. The Republican trend continued even through the otherwise Democratic year of 2006, in which Democratic Reps. Jim Marshall and John Barrow came within a few hundred votes of losing their seats. Looking to the future, Georgia’s big issue is a potential water shortage and fights with Alabama and Tennessee over water. For now Georgia is a reliably Republican state. Barack Obama worked to maximize black turnout in 2008 and largely succeeded, but could still manage only 47%. The turnout was enough to require Republican Senator Saxby Chambliss to face a December runoff, and the dramatic falloff in Democratic support in that runoff portends poorly for the party when Barack Obama is not on the ballot.

Any momentum the Democrats had disappeared in 2010. Barnes failed to reclaim the Governor's Mansion, Marshall lost his seat, and Democrats lost all up and down the ballot. There is no reason to believe that Democrats will make a comeback in 2012, even if Barack Obama can drive up black turnout again.

Georgia gained one seat in reapportionment and Republicans will control redistricting. They won't have a hard time making the new district Republican, since the fast growing and very Republican Atlanta suburbs pretty much have to get the new seat under the equal population standard. They will probably make an attempt to draw out Twelfth District Democrat John Barrow, a conservative who holds a swing district surrounded by heavily Republican territory. Republicans will maintain Georgia's three black majority districts. The Second District held by Sanford Bishop is a close district with a 47% black population and could be altered to potentially elect a Republican. However, I would think the GOP would not do so lest they raise the ire of the Justice Department. Look for Republicans to try to add a few blacks to try to make it a black majority district, though that might require more irregular boundaries.

President – 16 Electoral Votes

Democrats talked incessantly last cycle about how with increased black turnout Barack Obama could carry Georgia. Predictably, black turnout did increase to 30% of the total and Obama managed to improve 10% on John Kerry’s portion of the black vote, taking an astounding 98%. Also predictably, McCain still carried Georgia 52%-47%. Georgia is still a very Republican state and will vote that way in 2012, even though President Obama will probably put up another respectable showing.

Georgia’s Super Tuesday primary would presumably favor Georgian Newt Gingrich if he ran. Otherwise, the race would be wide open here. Mike Huckabee won this primary in 2008, but with only 34%. LEAN REPUBLICAN.

Governor – Nathan Deal (R)

Democrats were excited about former Governor (1999-2003) Roy Barnes, but it became obvious that Democrats could not win statewide in Georgia in 2010. Barnes lost to former Rep. (1993-2010) Deal, who overcame some ethical issues that may dog his term, but the trend is definitely in the favor of the GOP. LEAN REPUBLICAN.

Senior Senator – Saxby Chambliss (R)

Chambliss had to go to a runoff in 2008 to defeat weak Democratic challenger Jim Martin, due mainly to the increased African-American turnout spurred by Barack Obama. Without that factor, he easily won the runoff. He should be a huge favorite in 2014. LIKELY REPUBLICAN.

Junior Senator – Johnny Isakson (R)

In 2010 Isakson defeated underfunded Democrat Mike Thurmond 58%-39% in a race that showed the typical black-white voting pattern of Georgia elections. Barring a major change in Georgia's voting patterns, Isakson should be fine going forward. LIKELY REPUBLICAN.

House 1 – Jack Kingston (R)

This Southeast Georgia seat is very safely Republican. It appears to be right at the correct population it will need after redistricting. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 2 – Sanford Bishop (D)

This Southwestern Georgia is by nature a very marginal district (though 47% African-American), but Bishop had seemingly made it safe for himself. Still, he had a huge race this time from Mike Keown. Bishop certainly was hurt by the political climate, but his real problem was allegations that he had improperly directed scholarhip money from the Congressional Black Caucus to relatives. This district actually needs to pick up 38,000 people in redistricting and is surrounded by heavily Republican territory. Republicans will probably not make much of an effort to draw out Bishop, lest they get accused of diluting black influence, but between new people and his problems, Bishop remains in serious trouble. TOSSUP DEMOCRAT.

House 3 – Lynn Westmoreland (R)

This suburban Atlanta seat is intensely Republican. It needs to lose 91,000 people, some of which can destabilize Sanford Bishop and part which can help create a new Republican district. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 4 – Hank Johnson (D)

Barack Obama won 79% in this Atlanta seat, meaning Johnson will lose about the time Guam tips over. Only Johnson thinks that is a serious possibility. The district will remain much the same, losing only 7,000 people. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

House 5 – John Lewis (D)

Lewis is even safer than Johnson in his Atlanta seat. The seat apparently needs to shave off a mere 1,000 people. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

House 6 – Tom Price (R)

Suburban Atlanta is not a good area for Democrats. This district will contribute 113,000 people to the creation of a new Republican district. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 7 – Rob Woodall (R)

Woodall was the Chief of Staff to his predecessor John Linder, and he won this seat in a very competitive primary last year. Having grown to be 181,000 people over the equal population standard, this seat will be a major factor in the new seat. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 8 – Austin Scott (D)

This Central Georgia district is not a seat Democrats should ever have, but Democrat Jim Marshall held it for four terms. Marshall consistently put up one of the most conservative voting records among House Democrats and distanced himself publicly from Barack Obama and Nancy Pelosi, going so far as to call for the election of a new Speaker. He called the health care bill, “a few boxcars added to a runaway economic freight train hauling the nation toward bankruptcy.” However, 2010 effectively marked the end of Democratic Representatives playing this game in Republican districts, and compared to some of his peers Marshall did well to lose 52%52%-47% to Scott. We'll see if Scott implodes, but it is hard to see Democrats winning again here anytime soon. The seat needs to lose 27,000 people in redistricting, and redistricters might decide to give some of the more Republican territory to John Barrow or Sanford Bishop in an attempt to end their careers. LEAN REPUBLICAN.

House 9 – Tom Graves (R)

Graves won this North Georgia seat in June after Nathan Deal resigned to run for Governor and won a competitive primary, giving Graves a seat for life. It is 93,000 people over the equal population standard, and will probably contribute much of its share of the Atlanta suburbs to a new seat. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 10 – Paul Broun (R)

Broun may be the most conservative Member of Congress. This Northeast Georgia seat is fittingly a safe Republican district. It will lose 31,000 people in redistricting. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 11 – Phil Gingrey (R)

Gingrey WAS unopposed in a Northwest Georgia/Suburbant Atlanta district so Republican Alan Keyes could win it, at least if he had no other Republican opposition. It will lose 84,000 people in redistricting, helping to form a new Republican district. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 12 – John Barrow (D)

Barrow’s voting record and election results lead one to think this East Georgia seat is a heavily Republican district, but it’s actually pretty much in the middle. Barack Obama got 55% here. Barrow survived two straight serious challenges in the Democratic years of 2006 and 2008, nearly losing in 2006. He actually had a relative breeze in the Republican year of 2010, defeating Tea Partier Ray McKinney 57%-43%. He won't be easy to draw out, but Republicans will try. The seat needs to pick up 12,000 people in redistricting, and this will almost certainly be Republican territory. Still, the surrounding area has not been growing rapidly, so to ensure Barrow's defeat would require a radical redrawing of lines. The current map is a Republican gerrymander, so one suspects that they have already decided this marginal district electing Barrow is their best option. Even if they can weaken him, it is obvious that Barrow has built up a reservoir of good will. I think he can survive.
LEAN DEMOCRAT.

House 13 – David Scott (D)

This Suburban Atlanta black majority seat is safe for Scott and the Democrats. It needs to lose 91,000 people in redistricting, and since Republicans would like to create a new district in this area, look for its black percentage to increase beyond the current 52%. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

State of the Day - Delaware

2011-05-19T23:32:00.000-04:00

Delaware was the first state to ratify the Constitution. The state is actually quite racially diverse and a reasonable microcosm of American demographics, though it tilts to the wealthy side. Much of the economy has focused on chickens and DuPont. For more than a century, Delaware’s flexible laws of incorporation have made it the mecca of incorporation and corporate law, and the state's lack of usury laws have turned it into a haven for banks and credit card companies. Between corporate taxes and tolls, which disproportionately fall on out of state residents, Delware is able to keep its taxes low on its own citizens. Historically, it was a slave state and still has a 20% African-American population, increasingly joined by Hispanic immigrants. Delaware was one of the nation’s great bellwethers until the 1990’s, but has since become a solidly Democratic state. As in other small states, personality is still the driving force in state politics.

Despite the Republican wave nationally, Democrats actually made gains in Delaware in 2010. While moderate Republican Rep. Michael Castle seemed certain to win the special election for Joe Biden's Senate seat, Republicans inexplicably nominated the bizarre and incompetent Christine O'Donnell instead. Not only did this guarantee the Senate race to Democrat Chris Coons, but Democrats easily took Castle's House seat. There is no reason to expect Republicans to come back in 2012 or any time soon.

President – 3 Electoral Votes

Delaware will go for the Democrats unless there is a huge Republican landslide.

The state’s Super Tuesday primary will probably get lost in the shuffle, but before this year it seemed to tilt against social conservative candidates. Michael Castle’s endorsement was very important in 2008 for John McCain. However, O’Donnell’s primary victory over Castle throws this orthodoxy into doubt. Still, this is state that Mitt Romney would need to do well in. LIKELY DEMOCRAT.

Governor – Jack Markell (D)

Markell has had a solid first year and a half, but his approval ratings have varied drastically in the limited polling. Delaware has a strong Democratic tilt, no obvious Republican candidates other than sure loser Christine O'Donnell, and has not turned out an incumbent Governor since 1976. These factors make Markell a favorite in 2012. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

Senior Senator – Thomas Carper (D)

Barring a Roland Burris sized misstep, Carper should be safe should he choose to run for a third term in 2012. Republicans are looking at either Christine O'Donnell or Michele Rollins, loser of the 2010 House primary. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

Junior Senator – Chris Coons (D)

Coons appeared to be a sacrificial lamb when popular Republican Rep. Michael Castle entered the special election for the final four years of the term originally won by Joe Biden. His fortunes turned around drastically thanks to the Christine O'Donnell train wreck. He won 56%-40% and will probably keep this seat as long as he wants it, starting in 2014. LEAN DEMOCRAT.

House At-Large – John Carney (RD

Carney easily defeated a weak Republican for the open seat in 2010, and in a state like Delaware should have no problem retaining this seat. LIKELY DEMOCRAT.

State of the Day - Florida

2011-05-19T12:55:00.000-04:00

Sun, low taxes, and air conditioning have helped turn Florida from a sleepy Southern state into a mega state with decidedly non-Dixie demographics. It is known for its retirees, but over the last thirty years young families both from other states and other nations (especially Latin America) have come to Florida seeking opportunity. It has a large (20%) Hispanic population, made up not just of familiar Cubans but also more recent arrivals: Venezuelans, Bolivians, Ecuadorans, Puerto Ricans, and others. The state has made itself attractive to small business but was hit very hard by the housing crash and resulting recession, which has helped send unemployment upwards and population growth downwards. Florida consists of several distinct and very different areas, such as the traditionally Southern “Redneck Riviera”, Cuban oriented Miami, the Gold Coast of Northeastern retirees, the booming Tampa area, and the diverse I-4 corridor surrounding Orlando. This has led to a politically balanced state for the most part, though Republicans have held an advantage in state politics. The key figure in state politics has been former Governor (1999-2007) Jeb Bush, who governed conservatively and remained highly popular. He was succeeded by Republican Charlie Crist, who governed quite moderately on issues such as the budget and environment, and was essentially forced out of the party by conservatives when he tried to run for the Senate in 2010.

Republicans had a very successful 2010. Crist's defection essentially divided the Democratic Party, allowing Marco Rubio to win the Senate seat easily and become a rising national star. Republican Gubernatorial nominee Rick Scott was extremely flawed but won a narrow election anyway. The Republicans also won back three House seats lost in the 2006-08 disasters and took a fourth House seat when they knocked off long time Blue Dog Democratic Rep. Allen Boyd.

Florida should be a major center of attention in 2012. It is one of the true battlegrounds of Presidential politics and a state the GOP simply must win if they hope to knock of Barack Obama. Democratic Senator Bill Nelson also faces reelection in what promises to be perhaps the most competitive and interesting race of the cycle. Florida gained two House seats in the Census and Republicans will control redistricting. The fastest growing areas were in mostly to solidly Republican areas on the Gulf Coast, so it should not be too hard to create new districts that elect Republicans. The GOP will also aim to strengthen their new members, particularly Daniel Webster and Allen West, though the latter will be tough to do. The current plan is already a Republican gerrymander which effectively packs Democratic areas into heavily Democratic districts, so it is unlikely that any current Democratic incumbents can be effectively targeted.

Florida – 29 Electoral Votes

Florida sits almost precisely in the middle of the political spectrum and is tied with New York for third most Electoral Votes with 29. Suffice it to say that plenty of money will be spent here. Those two factors make it highly unlikely that Florida will vote for the loser in the 2012 Election. Republicans might have the slightest of edges, as the state voted 1 point more Republican than average in 2000 and 2004 and two points more Republican in 2008. In a very close election, Florida might very well decide the election again.

Florida broke the rules of both parties in 2008 by having an early primary. Republicans seated half of the state’s delegation and Democrats had a loud fight over seating the Florida delegation, and in both cases the sanctions were ultimately pointless (as are national conventions, but I digress). As of now, Florida is scheduled for January 31, 2012, too early under proposed GOP rules and even before Iowa/New Hampshire/South Carolina would be under those rules. It will definitely be after Iowa/New Hampshire (which would vote now if necessary to be first), but likely before Super Tuesday and might warrant more sanctions.

The sanctions paid off for Florida because the contest may have been decisive for the GOP. Rudy Giuliani had put all his eggs here, which left him fried/scrambled/done over easy. Then-popular GOP Governor Charlie Crist came out of nowhere to endorse John McCain at the last minute, and was widely credited for carrying McCain to a 36%-31% victory over Mitt Romney. Florida is so big that candidates with money will have an advantage over grass roots types. Mitt Romney absolutely must win this state if he wants the nomination. Newt Gingrich, with a natural base in the northern part of the state, would also need to win if he is to be taken seriously. TOSSUP DEMOCRAT.

Governor – Rick Scott(R)

Republicans passed over veteran Attorney General Bill McCollum to nominate multi-millionaire hospital magnate Scott, who had the support of Tea Partiers and grass roots activists. Scott was a problematic candidate, and in a normal year he probably would have lost to Democratic State CFO Alex Sink. However, 2010 was a huge Republican year and Scott came through 49%-48%.

Scott is off to a rocky start and his approval ratings are stuck around 30%. There is no evidence yet that Scott has the skills to win an election in a normal climate. LEAN DEMOCRAT.

Senior Senator – Bill Nelson (D)

Nelson received a free pass in 2006 from the disastrous campaign of Katherine Harris. He could be vulnerable, but will be formidable.

Republicans will have a crowded primary. The leading candidate would seem to be former Senator (2009-2010) George LeMieux. He put up a conservative record but may have problems due to his previous close associations with Charlie Crist. Senate President Mike Haridopolos and former House Majority Leader Adam Hasner are also strong contenders. Tea Partier Mike McCalister is running, but does not appear to a serious candidate. Rep. Vern Buchanan and Lt. Governor Jennifer Carroll may also run.

The Republican race could break any way. Nelson has sizable leads over all his potential opponents, but usually polls just a hair under 50%. LEAN DEMOCRAT.

Junior Senator – Marco Rubio (R)

This was supposed to be Charlie Crist's seat, but his wishy-washiness drove him out of the Republican Party when it became obvious that he could not beat the conservative rock star Rubio in a primary. He then ran as an independent, where he served only to divide the opposition to Rubio, who won with 49% to 30% for Crist and 20% for Democrat Kendrick Meek. If Rubio continues to be an appealing figure, he'll be fine. However, if he becomes associated with the far right he could be in trouble in 2016. Florida leans a tad to the right but cannot support extremists. I am betting on Rubio. TOSSUP REPUBLICAN.

House 1 – Jeff Miller (R)

Miller has no problems in one of the most Republican districts in the nation. This Western Panhandle seat needs to lose about 23,000 people. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 2 – Steve Southerland (R)

This Tallahassee based seat leans Republican, but the Blue Dog Allen Boyd had done very well here since winning the seat in 1996. 2010 was a whole other ballgame, however, and Boyd lost badly (54%-41%) to Southerland, who was not a great candidate. Southerland should still be in pretty good shape if he does not screw up. The district needs to shed 28,000 people, and redistricters might make it a bit more Republican. LEAN REPUBLICAN.

House 3 – Corrine Brown (D)

Brown had major ethical problems a few years ago, but Republicans could not budge her from this safe seat. This oddly drawn district runs from Jacksonville to Orlando and is designed to be a black majority district. The seat only needs to pick up about 7,000 people and should remain substantively unchanged. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

House 4 – Ander Crenshaw (R)

No Democrat would have a reason to run in this Northeast Florida seat which runs from Tallahassee to Jacksonville. The seat needs to shed 42,000 people, some of which can be used to shore up Steve Southerland, with the other parts going to a new Republican district in North Florida. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 5 – Richard Nugent (R)

Four term Rep. Ginny Brown-Waite announced her retirement at the very last moment to ensure that Nugent could replace her. Three cheers for democracy in action! Nugent was pretty anemic, not that it mattered in this year. This North Gulf Coast seat has grown rapidly and needs to lose about 178,000 people. The seat is mostly Republican now, and should form the basis for another Republican seat. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 6 – Cliff Stearns (R)

Stearns is totally safe in North Central Florida. His seat needs to lose 94,000 people, much of which will probably be assigned to a new Republican district. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 7 – John Mica (R)

This seat on the North Atlantic Coast is mostly Republican, and Mica has put it out of reach even in good Democratic years. It needs to lose about 107,000 people, some of which can help shore up Dan Webster. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 8 – Daniel Webster (R)

Democrat Alan Grayson won this Orlando area swing seat in 2008 when incumbent Republican Ric Keller fell asleep. Grayson quickly proved be one of the most obnoxious officeholders of recent times, and after smearing Republican Dan Webster with one of the most misleading and despicable ads I can remember, lost by a resounding 56%-38%. Webster should be able to hold this seat. It needs to lose 98,000 people, and Republican redistricters can probably make it more Republican without putting the presumed new seat in North Florida in too much danger. LEAN REPUBLICAN.

House 9 – Gus Bilirakis (R)

Bilirakis is safe in this Suburban Tampa Republican seat, though in an open seat race it would merely lean Republican. The 73,000 excess people here will contribute to a new district. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 10 – Bill Young (R)

This Pinellas County seat would be very competitive if it opened, but Young has made this seat safe. The seat needs to pick up 34,000 people, and redistricters will probably try to add Republican territory to the north to increase their chances of keeping it should the eighty year old Young leave. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 11 – Kathy Castor (D)

This Tampa/St. Petersburg seat is not a competitive district. It needs only 2,000 people in redistricting and will remain virtually identical. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

House 12 – Dennis Ross (R)

Ross won this open seat in 2010 when Adam Putnam ran for Agriculture Commissioner. This Republican leaning Tampa area seat should have been too tough for Democrats in a year like 2010. However, Ross was one of the most far right candidates of the cycle (and that's saying something), and he won an unimpressive 48%-41% victory over Democrat Lori Edwards. The seat needs to lose 98,000 people, which should be able to form part of the material for a safe Republican seat in South Central Florida. However, redistricters may feel the need to shore up Ross. Otherwise, he looks like one of those types of Representatives who needlessly give away seats with bizarre performances in office. TOSSUP REPUBLICAN.

House 13 – Vern Buchanan (R)

Buchanan needed a bitter recount to win this Republican leaning Sarasota based seat in 2006. He has since made this seat safely Republican. The seat will lose 68,000 people, which can go toward shoring up Dennis Ross or creating a new Republican seat. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 14 – Connie Mack (R)

Mr. Mary Bono has a very safe seat on the Southern Gulf Coast. This fast growing seat needs to shed 139,000 people, which will form the basis of a new Republican seat in South Florida. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 15 – Bill Posey (R)

On paper this seat should be worth taking a look at, but Democrats have given Posey a pass and he seems entrenched. The Melbourne based seat needs to shed 96,000 people, which can help shore up the Freshmen Republicans adjacent to him. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 16 – Tom Rooney (R)

After dealing with the bipartisan scumbag team of Mark Foley and Tim Mahoney, the voters of this district could be forgiven for simply being happy that Rooney has avoided trouble. This Port St. Lucie/South Central Florida seat leans Republican and will need to shed 89,000 people, which well help form a new Republican seat and help freshman Republican Allen West. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 17 – Frederica Wilson(D)

Republicans are totally irrelevant in this black majority district, so Wilson’s victory in the Democratic primary when the seat came open in 2010 punched her ticket to Washington. Her seat needs to pick up 9,000 people, which will change nothing. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

House 18 – Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R)

This formerly rock solid Miami Cuban Republican district has trended Democratic enough to where it would be highly competitive in an open seat, but Ros-Lehtinen easily survived a strong challenge in the GOP disaster of 2008 and is completely safe. The district needs to pick up 39,000 new residents, and Republicans may want to try to shore this district up, though doing so will be tricky. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 19 – Ted Deutch (D)

This is a safe Democratic seat, even accounting for the Palm Beach voters who accidentally voted for Pat Buchanan in 2000. Deutch won the seat in April, 2010 after Robert Wexler resigned to head the Center for Middle East Peace and Cooperation. He had only token opposition. The seat actually needs to lose 43,000 people, which Republicans will try to keep away from Allen West. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

House 20 – Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D)

Wasserman Schultz would be safe in this heavily Democratic Gold Coast district even without her frequent television appearances. However, she might not have become the Chair of the Democratic National Committee. She needs to shed 14,000 people, which Republicans will try to keep away from the marginal Eighteenth and Twenty-Second Districts that they currently hold. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

House 21 – Mario Diaz-Balart (R)

Mario's brother Lincoln Diaz-Balart retired after nine terms in this Miami/Hialeah/Pembroke Pines. Mario shifted over from the 25th District and ran unopposed to replace him. The seat still leans Republican, but not to the extent it once did. They do like the Diaz-Balarts, however. The seat needs to shed 14,000 people. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 22 – Allen West (D)

This Coastal Palm Beach/Broward seat is a classic swing district that went to the Democrats in the 2006 wave. West ran an underfunded campaign in 2008 and lost 55%-45%, which was not bad under the circumstances. With the wind at his back and more money in 2010, he won 54%-46%, making him a potential national star as one of the few visible black Republicans.

This seat needs to lose only about 9,000 people. Republicans would like to shore up West, but he is surrounded by Democratic and marginal territory, so they will probably just have to hope he can keep this seat. TOSSUP REPUBLICAN.

House 23 – Alcee Hastings (D)

I am out of ways to say this is a safe Democratic district. This black majority South Florida district needs to shed only about 13,000 people. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

House 24 – Sandy Adams (R)

Democrat Suzanne Kosmas won this Republican leaning Orlando district in 2008 mostly because of serious ethical problems by incumbent Tom Feeney. Predictably, she had no chance in 2010 and Adams beat her by a resounding 60%-40%. Barring future scandal Adams should be fine. The seat needs to lose 78,000 people. The end result will probably make this seat more Republican. LIKELY REPUBLICAN.

House 25 – David Rivera (R)

Rivera won this Republican leaning South Florida seat in 2010 when Mario Diaz-Balart shifted over the more compact 21st. He beat Democrat Joe Garcia 52%-43%. Rivera had some serious ethical problems as a candidate, but he could not lose in this district in this year. Still, in a less Republican year he could have problems if he does not stay on the straight and narrow. The seat needs to lose about 119,000 people. Republicans would probably like to use some of the Western part of the district to create a new Republican district, they can cut off some of the Miami area if necessary to save Rivera. TOSSUP REPUBLICAN.

State of the Day - Connecticut

2011-05-18T02:12:00.001-04:00

Connecticut is the richest state, but also has pockets of poverty and declining blue collar communities. Connecticut was generally a very Republican state through the 1980’s. The state has always been home to creators and inventors, and in recent years has geared its laws to attract great insurance companies and financial service institutions. However, while suburban East and West Connecticut have prospered, the cities of Central Connecticut have been plagued with a Michigan style permanent recession, slow job growth, crime, and general decline. The state has high taxes and a very poor business climate, which has resulted in stagnation and the highest levels of income inequality in the country. Democrats have grabbed a pretty strong hold on the state with their base vote coming from the wealthy suburbs and minorities in the central cities, with Republicans still mostly winning blue collar whites. Modern Connecticut is quite culturally liberal and this has obviously helped the Democrats, especially in the upscale suburbs. While Democrats went 24 years without winning the Governor's Mansion until they broke through in 2010, they have dominated the State Legislature, statewide offices, the two Senate seats (though Joe Lieberman was reelected as an independent in 2006), and in 2008 eliminated the last Republican from the House delegation.

Like other base Democratic states in the Northeast and West Coast, Connecticut seemed immune from the Republican wave in 2010. Democrats won the Governor's Mansion and easily held the Senate seat of the retiring Christopher Dodd and all five House seats. It seems unlikely Republicans will compete here in 2012, and Democrats will probably improve their position by electing a more conventional liberal to replace the retiring Lieberman.

Democrats control redistricting, but are just short of the 2/3rds margin in the Legislature needed to pass a plan under Connecticut law. Expect only minor changes to meet the equal population standard.

President – 7 Electoral Votes

If a Republican had a good enough national lead, Connecticut might appear competitive. It would take a true wipeout for a Republican to actually win it.

Connecticut will have a primary on Super Tuesday. John McCain won easily in both 2000 and 2008, so we might expect the primary to give an edge to the most moderate contender left in the field. Even though he did poorly in 2008, Mitt Romney would seem best poised to win this primary. In fact, he would need to win the primary. LIKELY DEMOCRAT.

Governor – Dan Malloy (D)

Former Republican Governor Jodi Rell decided not to run for a second full term that she probably could have won. Democrats won this race for the first time since 1986, as Malloy beat Republican Tom Foley by a narrow 50%-49% margin. Malloy has called himself the "anti-Christie" and has raised the state's already high taxes to deal with a budget hole. His approval ratings are stuck in the mid-30's as a result.

Like other New England states, Connecticut has shown a preference for keeping a Republican Governor to check against a Democratic legislature. This gives the Republicans hope of threatening Malloy in 2014. They would win if the election was now, but it isn't. Still, Christie has done relatively well in a Democratic state (though a bit less so than Connecicut), so it remains an open question whether Malloy's approach can win the support he has not gotten so far. LEAN REPUBLICAN.

Senior Senator – Joe Lieberman (D)

Lieberman was elected on the “Connecticut for Lieberman” party line after losing the Democratic primary in 2006. Often referred to as an independent, he calls himself an “Independent Democrat”. For all practical purposes in the Senate he remains a Democrat, and thus I refer to him as such.

Lieberman has inalienably alienated (say that five times fast!) the Democratic Party, and declining numbers indicated he could not pull off another victory as an independent. His retirement was utterly predictable. The seat should remain Democratic barring a series of disasters. The Democrats have a primary battle set. The favorite is Fifth District Rep. Chris Murphy. He is vulnerable, however, to a challenge from the left. Accordingly, he has competition from former Secretary of State Susan Bysiewicz. While she won three statewide elections, she has her own problems. She ran for Governor in 2010, but shifted to the Attorney General's race instead. However, she was disqualified by the State Supreme Court because she had not actively practiced law for ten years as required by state law. Then as the outgoing Secretary of State, she declared Democrat Dan Malloy the winner even though the race was extremely close disputed, and in fact Republican Tom Foley led at the time of her declaration. State Rep. William Tong also appears to be running, though he is admittedly a long shot.

Republicans are left with four potential candidates who have all lost elections in the past decade: former Lt. Gov. Michael Fedele (CT Senate, 2002), WWE empresario Linda McMahon (Senate, 2010), and former Reps. Christopher Shays (House, 2008) and Rob Simmons (House, 2006). It looks bad for the GOP. LIKELY DEMOCRAT.

Junior Senator – Richard Blumenthal (D)

The longtime Attorney General, Blumenthal had seemingly been waiting forever to run for the Senate and finally got his chance when Christopher Dodd corrupted himself into retirement. While he struggled with an anemic campaign and problems surrounding his tendency to overblow his military resume, he easily defeated the highly funded challenge of former WWE CEO Linda McMahon 55%-43%. Given the result in this climate, he should continue to have a serious edge. LEAN DEMOCRAT.

House 1 – John Larson (D)

Larson is a runaway winner of the Ted Kennedy lookalike contest. This Hartford seat needs to pick up only 5,000 people and will be safe for Larson for another decade. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

House 2 – Joe Courtney (D)

Republicans held this East Connecticut seat until 2006, but Courtney has had no problems. It leans Democratic by nature, and Republicans have not seriously challenged for it. The seat needs to lose 15,000 people in redistricting. LIKELY DEMOCRAT.

House 3 – Rosa DeLauro (D)

This is not a completely safe seat for Democrats, but it is safe for DeLauro. The New Haven based seat is about 1,000 people short of the population standard and should continue virtually identical. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

House 4 – Jim Himes (D)

Himes beat incumbent Republican Christopher Shays in the wave election of 2008. Himes had major competition from State Senator Dan Debicella in 2010 but beat him 53%53%-47%, which is about what one would expect in a Democratic leaning suburban New York City district. The seat needs to pick up 14,000 people in redistricting, which could involve picking up more Republican territory from the Fifth District. For that reason, Himes may see another challenge in 2012. TOSSUP DEMOCRAT.

House 5 – Chris Murphy (D)

Unlike the Fourth District, this is legitimate swing district covering Northwest Connecticut. Murphy seemed to be in strong position here, but he is leaving to run for the Senate. The seat favors the Democrats, but this is a golden opportunity for the Republicans to break through in an area in which they have experienced little success. This seat needs to lose about 7,000 people in redistricting. TOSSUP DEMOCRAT.

State of the Day - Colorado

2011-05-17T20:45:00.000-04:00

Perhaps the most prominent Rocky Mountain State, Colorado has been on the cutting edge of political trends in the West. It boomed in the 1970’s on the back of oil, and became a high tech center during the tech boom of the 1990’s. Still, Colorado did not experience the huge growth and housing booms and busts of Arizona and Nevada, and its youngish population has been relatively stable through the recession. Colorado moved left with the influx of liberals in 1970’s, but moved sharply Republican with all of the professional newcomers with families in the 1990’s. Democrats surged in the 2000’s, adding support in the Denver suburbs to complement the liberal Denver/Boulder base, winning the Governor’s Mansion in 2006, Senate seats in 2006 and 2008, and one House seat in each of 2004, 2006, and 2008. Democrats had their convention in Denver and Barack Obama carried the state 54-45. The state’s youth, predilection for environmentalism, and sizable Hispanic population bode well for the future of Colorado Democrats.

The Republican wave of 2010 was muted here because of the incompetence of the state GOP. Democrats held the open Governor's Mansion because the Republican nominee totally failed and finished third behind anti-immigration firebrand Tom Tancredo. Tea Party Senate nominee Ken Buck also fell on his face, losing a winnable race to appointed Democrat Michael Bennet. While Republicans did retake the GOP-leaning Third and Fourth District House seats, they failed to take the Seventh District. Colorado should be Ground Zero in the 2012 White House race.

Republicans did take the State House, so control of redistricting will be split. For the most part, I'd expect the status quo to remain. However, the Seventh District was created to be a swing district in 2000, but has trended Democratic since then. It has grown slower than the heavily Republican adjacent Sixth District next door, so adjusting for equal population should make the seat a more even fight.

President – 9 Electoral Votes

Colorado was trending Democratic anyway, but Barack Obama smartly targeted the state and won it easily. The state voted one point more Republican than the nation in 2004, and one point more Democratic than the nation in 2008. It might keep drifting left, but for right now the state is the “median voter” in Presidential elections. Colorado should be very competitive in the next Presidential election. If it is not, then the national race will not be a contest. Neither party can be assured of winning the election without Colorado. and it should track pretty close with national polling.

As of now, Colorado’s Presidential caucuses in 2012 will be on March 20, though they could move to Super Tuesday. The caucus format should favor the candidate with superior organization (Mitt Romney won easily in 2008). As potentially the only westerner in the race, Jon Huntsman could do well here. TOSSUP DEMOCRAT.

Governor – John Hickenlooper (D)

Democrat Bill Ritter elected not to seek re-election in 2010 in the face of declining approval ratings. Democrats united around Hickenlooper, then the Denver Mayor. Republicans imploded. Their original favorite wilted when it was discovered he plagiarized work for a think tank. The ultimate GOP nominee, Tea Partier Dan Maes, crashed and burned. He finished a distant third to former GOP Rep. Tom Tancredo, an anti-immigration zealot running as the Constitution Party nominee. Hickenlooper won by default, 51%-37%, with a measly 11% for Maes. The new Governor has a tough job ahead of him, but benefits from a clueless Colorado GOP. TOSSUP DEMOCRAT.

Senior Senator – Mark Udall (D)

Senator Udall should be favored at first glance in 2014, but he did run behind Barack Obama in 2008 and Colorado is marginal enough to where he will always have to worry about a serious challenge. Udall should be targeted in 2014. Former Lt. Governor Jane Norton, who lost the Senate nomination in 2010 to Tea Partier Ken Buck, is the early Republican favorite. TOSSUP DEMOCRAT

Junior Senator – Michael Bennet (D)

Bennet was appointed to this seat in January, 2009 when Ken Salazar resigned to become Secretary of the Interior. He survived a strong primary challenge from the more liberal former House Speaker Andrew Romanoff. In this environment Bennet should have been finished in the general election. However, in a typically brilliant move, Colorado Republicans nominated big mouthed Tea Partier Ken Buck. He was just a little too much for Colorado voters, and his lack of appeal allowed Bennet to edge out a 48%-47% win. Who knows what 2016 will bring, but Bennet should be one of the most vulnerable Democrats up for election that year. TOSSUP REPUBLICAN.

House 1 – Diana DeGette (D)

This urban Denver district is one of the safest Democratic seats in the nation. It does need to pick up 45,000 people, which won't help Ed Perlmutter but will not make a difference for DeGette. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

House 2 – Jared Polis (D)

The Boulder based seat is safely Democratic, but Polis hasn't exactly set the world on fire even though Republicans did not put up a challenger here that could take advantage of the tsunami. The seat needs to shed 9,000 people and should remain basically the same. LIKELY DEMOCRAT.

House 3 – Scott Tipton (R)

This Western Range seat leans Republican by nature, but Democrat John Salazar had held it for three terms. He got a bit too cozy with national Democrats and lost 50%-46 to Tipton. The new incumbent should be challenged in 2012, but the seat gives him a good chance of holding on. The seat only needs to pick up 9,000 people, which might give a marginal benefit to the Democrats. TOSSUP REPUBLICAN.

House 4 – Cory Gardner (R)

This Eastern Colorado seat leans Republican, and even in 2008 Markey probably could not have won had Republicans had a better incumbent than Marilyn Musgrave. Republican put up a better nominee in 2010 in the form of Gardner, and the result here was never in much doubt. Gardner should be fine unless he takes too much advice from Musgrave. The seat needs to lose 14,000 people. LEAN REPUBLICAN.

House 5 – Doug Lamborn (R)

Lamborn created quite a bit of ill will among Republicans in winning and holding this safe Colorado Springs based seat, but he had no real competition this year and should be safe going forward. This seat needs to lose only about 1,000 people to meet the equal population standard. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 6 – Mike Coffman (R)

This seat isn’t totally bereft of Democrats, but Coffman won the vacancy easily enough in a terrible Republican year. It is hard to see Democrats doing much here. This suburban Denver seat needs to lose 62,000 people. This will probably lead to a more Republican district, but could also lead to Republican votes shipped to the Seventh District to the north. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 7 – Ed Perlmutter (D)

This suburban Denver seat was designed to be competitive, but it has developed a serious Democratic lean. Perlmutter has done well while generally supporting the Democratic agenda down the line. He has deep roots in the district and is considered one of the more assiduous Congressmen in terms of constituent service. In 2010Perlmutter faced Ryan Frazier, an African-American poised to become a national GOP star. However, Perlmutter scored an impressive 53%-42% victory. I think he's probably fine in this district as drawn now, but the seat needs to pick up 34,000 people and that will pretty much have to come from more Republican territory. For this reason, I suspect this will be a very competitive seat in 2012. TOSSUP DEMOCRAT.

State of the Day - California

2011-05-16T21:29:00.000-04:00

California is the nation’s biggest state and has a little bit of everything, including all sorts of public policy problems. The state filled up fast after the discovery of gold in 1849, and continued to grow throughout the nineteenth century thanks in large part to Chinese immigration. Originally agricultural, it built great metropolitan areas and really came into its own during World War II and its aftermath. Big government projects built California through the defense industry, infrastructure, and universities, but California also nurtured entrepreneurs and small business. A heavily Republican (if liberally oriented) state for its first century, California became Democratic through the growth of unions after World War II. It trended Republican from the mid-1960’s through the 1980’s, though it was rarely reliably anything, electing Ronald Reagan governor in 1966 and 1970 only to elect the diametrically opposed Jerry Brown to replace him in 1974 and 1978. California began to trend back toward the Democrats in the late 80’s and 1990’s and slowly became less business friendly. White conservatives have left and been replaced by a polyglot of immigrants, making California an incredibly diverse state. The new immigrants have combined with coastal liberals to create a majority coalition for the Democrats. An ever smaller Republican Party became more conservative and less competitive. Still, high taxes, a disastrous budgetary situation, and electricity shortages caused a backlash against Democratic Governor Gray Davis in 2003. Davis was recalled and replaced with Arnold Schwarzenegger, a very famous but not particularly conservative Republican. When he tried to force conservative ballot propositions through, he lost. He won reelection in 2006 only by moving to the left and accepting tax increases. Republicans maintain a sizable base in the interior part of the state, but are routinely outvoted by Coastal California. The state has huge disparities in income, especially in Coastal California, but so far the affluent liberal/poor minority coalition holds for Democrats. Interior California is more like a Rocky Mountain state, and like neighbors Nevada and Arizona, had serious problems with the housing crash and trended heavily toward the Democrats in 2008. Still, the state’s high taxes and unsustainable budget make the current political lineup potentially unstable. Meanwhile, as traffic worsens and the price of housing is unaffordable for many citizens, California passed laws to limit carbon emissions and restrict growth. For these reasons, the future of California politics may be more wide open than it appears at first glance.

2010 looked promising for Republicans, but it turned out to be a dud. Despite alot of hype, self-funding Republicans bombed in races for Governor and Senator. The Republicans failed to pick up a single House seat or make a dent in the Democratic control of state government. Barring the emergence of a new issue, it appears Republicans will be a serious minority here for the near future.

For the first time in its history, California did not pick up a seat in reapportionment. California has adopted an independent redistricting commission. While we have nothing to suggest how this process will work in California, the current districts are almost all safe seats, and the most likely result is a continuation of that plan with minor changes for equal population standards, though changing population distribution may require a seat to be shifted from Coastal to Interior California.

President – 55 Electoral Votes

California is not totally out of reach for Republicans. It will not be competitive if the election is even remotely close, however. While a Democrat obviously cannot win the election without California, if he loses it he will have already lost the election. It would be more like the cherry on top of the ice cream of a big Republican victory.

California’s Super Tuesday primary will obviously be very important. The hugeness of the state gives a big advantage to frontrunners and those with organization and money. Thus, I think Mitt Romney could, should, and needs to do well here. TOSSUP DEMOCRAT.

Governor – Jerry Brown (D)

When Arnold Schwarzenegger moved back to Hollywood with his political tail between his legs, Republicans had hope in their multi-millionaire free spending candidate Meg Whitman. She looked like she had a chance until she fell apart over her previous hiring and firing of an illegal immigrant nanny.

She ended up losing 53%-42% to former Governor (1975-1983) Brown, who seemed washed up after losing a Presidential run in 1992. Governor Moonbeam is the punchline of many jokes, but has a hard, serious job ahead of him. It is not clear that Republicans can elect a statewide candidate in normal circumstances. However, Brown has advocated many unpopular cuts and is off to a rocky start with approval ratings in the mid to high 30's. This could be yet another opportunity for the GOP in 2014. TOSSUP REPUBLICAN.

Senior Senator – Dianne Feinstein (D)

Feinstein has a better reputation beyond the Democratic base than her more liberal colleague Barbara Boxer. Thus, she should be okay even if 2012 is a ridiculously Republican year. California is generally a good state for incumbents due to the prohibitive cost of running a statewide election. 2010 failure Carly Fiorina and her primary opponent, conservative Assemblyman Chuck DeVore, are considering runs, though neither would appear to have a prayer of winning. Other Republican possibilities are Rep. Darrell Issa and Keith Holbrook, both of whom could self-fund. LIKELY DEMOCRAT.

Junior Senator – Barbara Boxer (D)

Republicans had hoped that the big Republican year, Boxer's very liberal record, and a strong opponent in the form of Carly Fiorinia would combine to topple Boxer. It didn't work, and Boxer's 52%-43% shows that California is probably out of reach for Republicans in the near future. Boxer will always have competition due to her loud liberalness, but if Republicans couldn't win in 2010 they probably can't beat her. LEAN DEMOCRAT.

House 1 – Mike Thompson (D)

This Northern Coastal California seat is a safe Democratic seat and nothing is going to change that any time soon. It needs to add a mere 2,000 people and will probably remain virtually identical. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

House 2 – Wally Herger (R)

Herger is not the best Republican performer, winning only 57%-43% in this very Republican North California seat. Still, the seat is too out of reach for the Democrats in all but the most dire circumstances for the GOP. The seat needs to shed about 15,000 people. LIKELY REPUBLICAN.

House 3 – Dan Lungren (R)

This Sacramento area seat leans Republican, but Lungren has consistently underperformed. His 50%-43% victory in 2010 was embarrassing, given the political climate. The seat has grown like wildfire and will need to lose 88,000 citizens. That will probably have to come from the more Democratic parts of the district to shore up the Bay Area seats, and so will probably help Lungren. Even so, Lungren's performance means this seat will continue to be hotly contested. TOSSUP REPUBLICAN.

House 4 – Tom McClintock (R)

McClintock is a hero to California conservatives, but he nearly became a goat in 2008 when he won this safe Republican seat by a mere 1,800 votes. He won a smashing victory in 2010 and probably will avoid competition going forward. This Northeast California seat has gained population and will need to lose 55,000 people. This will probably come out of the Sacramento suburbs, which will make the district more Republican. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 5 – Doris Matsui (D)

The Sacramento seat is immune to Republican tsunamis. The seat will need to pick up 18,000 presumably Republican voters, but it should not effect anything. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

House 6 – Lynn Woolsey (D)

Marin County is not a hotbed of Republicanism. The seat needs to pick up 47,000 people, but is surrounded by Democratic territory. The only threat to Woolsey is that because the Bay Area's population has been relatively stagnant, two Democratic incumbents will perhaps be forced in with each other. I would not expect Woolsey to be the victim, however. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

House 7 – George Miller (D)

Ditto, but this Vallejo/Concord, Northeast Bay seat needs to pick up 39,000 people. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

House 8 – Nancy Pelosi (D)

Ditto, but A) the San Francisco seat needs to pick up a substantial 67,000 people and B) there is no way Pelosi will be placed in any sort of trouble. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

House 9 – Barbara Lee (D)

The Oakland/Berkeley seat needs to pick up 67,000 people, but Lee would have a huge edge in a primary with those two locales. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

House 10 – John Garamendi (D)

This is a safe Democratic district, but Garamendi's pefrmance in winning this seat in the November, 2009 special election to replace Ellen Tauscher and again in the general election does not indicate a future superstar. The Contra Costa/Solano seat actually needs to shed 6,000 people, so despite his junior status he is in good shape for redistricting. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

House 11 – Jerry McNerney (D)

Some pundits referred to this as a “heavily Republican seat” when McNerney won it from ethically challenged Richard Pombo in 2006. In reality, this Eastern Bay Area seat is a prime swing district. George W. Bush won 54% here in 2004 but Barack Obama won the district with 54% in 2008. Still, this is one of the only competitive districts in California, and McNerney did well to hold on 48%-47% in a tortuous 2010. The seat itself is 79,000 people over the population standard, but will probably have to trade some Bay Area precincts for more conservative precincts in the interior due to population shifts elsewhere. McNerney is the only California incumbent in real serious trouble for 2011. TOSSUP REPUBLICAN.

House 12 – Jackie Speier (D)

Speier survived Jonestown. I don’t think she’s scared of underfunded Republicans in this very liberal San Mateo district. The seat needs to pick up 42,000 people, which should give Speier a district that has less, if any, of San Francisco and more of San Mateo County. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

House 13 – Pete Stark (D)

Battlin’ Pete Stark needs 36,000 people. Still, he should have a very safe East Bay district. Before I leave the Bay Area, I should say that if any one of these people were to retire their seat would probably be eliminated in favor of a new seat in the interior part of the state. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

House 14 – Anna Eshoo (D)

Another safe Bay Area district for the Democrats. This one is in the South Bay and needs 39,000 people. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

House 15 – Mike Honda (D)

The San Jose based seat needs "only" about 23,000 people. This leaves Honda in decent position to survive without a primary fight. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

House 16 – Zoe Lofgren (D)

This San Jose seat needs 43,000 people. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

House 17 – Sam Farr (D)

The Monterey based seat needs to pick up 42,000 people. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

House 18 – Dennis Cardoza (D)

Unlike the previous twelve districts, this district merely leans Democratic, having narrowly supported George W. Bush in 2004 before giving Obama 59%. Cardoza had entrenched himself well, however, winning 58%-42% in 2010. The Central Valley seat actually needs to lose 23,000 people, meaning that Cardoza should be good going forward. LIKELY DEMOCRAT.

House 19 – Jeff Denham (R)

This Central California seat would be a reach for Democrats under the best of circumstances, and Denham had no problem winning it when it came open in the extremely Republican 2010. The Central California seat needs to lose 43,000 people. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 20 – Jim Costa (D)

This Fresno/Bakersfield seat leans Democratic, but it appeared that Costa had lost to Andy Vidak on Election Night before winning 51%-49%. The seat needs to lose about 9,000 people in redistricting, but the Republican areas to the East have been growing faster than the Democratic areas to the West, leaving a distinct possibility that this seat will get more Republican. Costa is in major trouble. TOSSUP DEMOCRAT.

House 21 – Devin Nunes (R)

This heavily Republican Central California district needs to lose 55,000 people, which will help give Jim Costa a headache. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 22 – Kevin McCarthy (R)

This heavily Republican San Luis Obispo/Bakersfield seat needs to lose 60,000 people, which could hurt Democrats in LA as well as Jim Costa and Lois Capps. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 23 – Lois Capps (D)

Capps fell to 57% in this safe Democratic seat which hugs the coast from San Luis Obispo to Ventura. The seat needs to pick up 31,000 people who will almost certainly be Republican, but it shouldn't be enough to endanger Capps. LIKELY DEMOCRAT.

House 24 – Elton Gallegly (R)

This Santa Barbara/Ventura district leans Republican, but Gallegly has iced the seat. It needs to pick up about 10,000 people, which won't help Democratic efforts. LIKELY REPUBLICAN.

House 25 – Buck McKeon (R)

This vast district covers much of Eastern California, but most of the population is in Los Angeles County. It leans Republican anyway but McKeon is entrenched. The seat is 108,000 people over the equal population standard. I would anticipate some Democratic areas in LA being taken out and this being a more Republican district after redistricting. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 26 – David Dreier (R)

This LA County/San Bernadino seat is trending Democratic and has become a swing district. Even in 2010, Dreier could muster only a desultory 54%-37% victory. This is a great pickup opportunity for Democrats in a better year. The seat is only 6,000 people over the equal population standard and should remain in a very similar state. In the meantime, Dreier has once again become Chairman of the Rules Committee, making him an excellent target should anger build with the House Republican leadersihp. TOSSUP REPUBLICAN.

House 27 – Brad Sherman (D)

The next thirteen seats are in Los Angeles and ridiculously Democratic. This seat needs 15,000 people. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

House 28 – Howard Berman (D)

This one needs 39,000 people. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

House 29 – Adam Schiff (D)

This seat needs 38,000 people. Like the Bay Area, the Democrats may have a tough time keeping all their LA seats safe. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

House 30 – Henry Waxman (D)

Needs 37,000 people. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

House 31 – Xavier Becerra (D)

This district is 46,000 people short, but the Hispanic majority districts will not be endangered. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

House 32 – Judy Chu (D)

Needs 28,000 people. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

House 33 – Karen Bass (D)

This inner city LA seat is one of the safest Democratic districts in the country. Bass won the open seat 86%-14% in 2010. This seat needs 41,000 people. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

House 34 – Lucille Roybal-Allard (D)

Roybal-Allard. Two names. One Democrat. She needs to pick up 31,000 peple. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

House 35 – Maxine Waters (D)

Waters can face all the ethical charges in the world, and it wouldn’t do jack squat for any Republican, though she did fall to 79%. Oddly enough, this seat has retained more population than the surrounding area, and needs only 10,000 people. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

House 36 – Jane Harman (D)

This safe Democratic seat became vacant when Jane Harman resigned in February to take charge of a think tank. This will be the first election to feature Arnold Schwarzenegger's "Kill Political Parties System", where an open primary will be held on May 17, with the top two finishers regardless of party compete in the general election on July 12, even if one person gets 50% in the primary (there seems to be a common miconception that a 50% vote can win the race outright in May a la Louisiana).

Sixteen people are in the race but the major contenders seem to be two Democrats, both of whom are engaged in a race to the left. Los Angeles City Councilwoman Janice Hahn, the daughter and brother of former LA Mayors, has most of the establishment support, including organized labor. Secretary of State Debra Bowen is relying on more grassroots support, although oddly as a statewide elected official she may have greater name recognition. Marcy Winograd, a liberal teacher who got 40% in a 2010 primary challenge to Harman is a wildcard. Republicans have no chance of winning the seat, but openly gay Redondo Beach Mayor Mike Gin has a chance of sneaking into the runoff. This should be a typical low turnout election that is difficult to forecast. I'd guess that Hahn will defeat Gin in the second round.

The special election is occurring under current boundaries, but the seat will be redistricted for 2012 just like every other seat. The seat needs 29,000 people going forward. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

House 37 – Laura Richardson (D)

Richardson has all sorts of ethical and personal problems. This encouraged a serious Republican opponent, but that was useless. This district needs 26,000 people. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

House 38 – Grace Napolitano (D)

I’m too tired for another bad joke. This seat needs 29,000 people. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

House 39 – Linda Sanchez (D)

Linda Sanchez likes to discuss her sex life, which is just gross. As a junior member of the minority, she has time to do so because she has no worries about challengers here. The seat needs to pick up only about 10,000 people. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

House 40 – Ed Royce (R)

This Fullerton/Anaheim/Orange is a pretty Republican seat anyway, but Royce has nailed it down. He does need to pick up 16,000 people. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 41 – Jerry Lewis (R)

Democrats could not come close to Lewis in this San Bernadino district in 2006 and 2008 despite major ethical troubles and a big Democratic wind. It has grown and needs to shed 79,000 people. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 42 – Gary Miller (R)

Miller has found himself in a very similar situation to Lewis. The LA/Riverside/Orange County seat is only 4,000 under the needed population, so the status quo will probably continue. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 43 – Joe Baca (D)

Baca is safe in this Democratic Ontario/San Bernadino seat. This seat needs to lose 38,000 people. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

House 44 – Ken Calvert (R)

This Riverside seat naturally leans Republican, but Calvert nearly lost it in 2008 to underfunded Democrat Bill Hedrick. Calvert beat Hedrick 56%-44% in the better Republican year of 2010, but he still underperformed this district. Calvert has mostly inflicted his problems on himself. In 1993, Calvert went through a nasty divorce after being caught in a car with a prostitute. He has had continued ethical problems, mostly surrounding a real estate purchase whose value he has enhanced with questionable earmarks. Even Fox News has gone after Calvert for earmark abuse. For good measure, Calvert reneged on a term limits pledge. If Republicans want voters to take them seriously, they will need to do better than shady characters like Ken Calvert. This seat needs to lose 122,000 people, making it sadly likely that Calvert will have a safer district. LEAN REPUBLICAN.

House 45 – Mary Bono Mack (R)

This Riverside/Southeast California seat is one of the very few swing districts in California, although Bono Mack has generally run ahead of her party. This changed in the big GOP year of 2010, when she won only 52%-42% against strong Democratic opposition in 2010. This seat needs to shed 135,000 people. This could play out in a number of ways, but Bono Mack should continue to face strong opposition in an area that has been trending Democratic. TOSSUP REPUBLICAN.

House 46 – Dana Rohrabacher (R)

Rohrabacher made himself onto some Democratic target lists with an unimpressive victory in 2008 in this Republican leaning Huntington Beach/Long Beach district. The party is over for Democrats as Rohrabacker "rohred" back. He needs to pick up 35,000 people which won't help him, but I can't see Rohrabacher being threatened. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 47 – Loretta Sanchez (D)

Sanchez faced a vigorous challenge in this Democratic leaning, Hispanic majority Orange County seat from Assemblyman Van Tran, who fell short in his efforts to make the most out of the district’s 15% Asian population. Sanchez beat him 53%-39%.

This suggests that Sanchez has iced this district. However, her district needs to pick up 57,000 people and is adjacent to Republican districts with excess population. She will probably face a tougher district in 2012. If Republicans can improve their performance among Hispanics she'd be in real trouble. TOSSUP DEMOCRAT.

House 48 – John Campbell (R)

Campbell won 60%-35% in this Republican leaning Irvine seat. He will be hard to oust going forward. His seat needs to lose 9,000 people. LIKELY REPUBLICAN

House 49 – Darrell Issa (R)

Coming to Congress in 2000 as a self-promoting car alarm magnate, Issa has matured into one of the Republican Party’s most thoughtful and impressive figures of substance. This Orange County/San Diego seat is safely Republican and needs to shed 64,000 people. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 50 – Brian Bilbray (R)

Blibray has compiled a moderate record but only got 50% in 2008 in what you often see referred to as a “Republican stronghold.” It’s actually a very competitive district, and in fact, Barack Obama won here. Democrats came up with a retread in 2010 and in the Republican wave Bilbray won 57%-39%. The seat needs to shed 17,000 people, which will help Bilbray. LEAN REPUBLICAN.

House 51 – Bob Filner (D)

This San Diego seat is not a totally safe for Democrats, but Filner will be almost impossible to oust. Some Republicans talked up this seat in 2010 but Filner won 60%-40%. The seat needs to lose 14,000 people. LIKELY DEMOCRAT.

House 52 – Duncan D. Hunter (R)

This is not the Duncan Hunter who ran for President and called media executives “a bunch of knuckleheads.” This is his son. This San Diego district is mostly Republican and Hunter should be safe, but it does need 18,000 new people. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 53 – Susan Davis (D)

This is San Diego's safely Democratic seat. Davis's only problem is that this seat needs 50,000 people. That will dilute the Democrats here, but not enough to make things interesting. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

State of the Day - Arkansas

2011-05-15T12:22:00.000-04:00

Arkansas has produced more than its share of talented Democratic politicians, most notably President Bill Clinton. This is especially notable because Arkansas, though beautiful, is a small state with few natural resources. Arkansans tend to be quite socially conservative. Without a landed elite like most of the old Confederate states, it has also provided opportunities for businessmen to take chances and amass fabulous wealth. Still, those with a taste for populism have created a political climate that tilts heavily Democratic even to the present day, though Republicans have dominated Presidential elections since Bill Clinton left the stage.

Arkansas's long suffering Republican Party took advantage of the national mood and had perhaps the best election in its sorry history. Republican John Boozman crushed Democratic Senator Blanche Lincoln, and Republicans captured two House seats from two retiring Democrats. The Democratic edge in state politics did not disappear, however, as Democratic Governor Mike Beebe won election easily and the party held the Legislature.

Democrats controlled redistricting, but the map they produced does not seem likely to change much. Population was shifted from the Second and Third Districts to the First and Fourth Districts. At this point the changes are unlikely to alter the political balance by more than neglible amount.

President – 6 Electoral Votes

Arkansas has become increasingly Republican in Presidential elections. It has fewer African-Americans than any Southern state and disproportionately large populations of socially conservative, lower income, and non-college educated whites. In short, it is a demographic disaster for Barack Obama, and the state almost certainly will not appear on any target lists in 2012.

Arkansas has moved its primary for 2012 to May 22, so it probably will not matter. If there was still a race at this point, I would favor the socially conservative, populist candidate to the extent one is in the race. Mike Huckabee would obviously be a huge favorite if he was still around. LIKELY REPUBLICAN.

Governor – Mike Beebe (D)

Beebe has very high approval ratings and slaughtered Republican Jim Keet 64%-34%. Beebe will be ineligible for reelection in 2014, and if Arkansas continues to trend Republican this should be a major pickup opportunity. LIKELY REPUBLICAN.

Senior Senator – Mark Pryor (D)

Republicans did not even put up a candidate against the popular Pryor in 2008. One has a hard time seeing a situation in which he would go down in 2014, but one could have said that about Blanche Lincoln in 2006. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

Junior Senator – John Boozman (R)

Boozman clobbered two term Democrat Blanche Lincoln 58%-37%, one of the worst performances by an incumbent Senator that I can remember. The only other Republican Senator Arkansas has elected since Reconstruction, Tim Hutchinson, lost after one-term due to his own self-destruction. Barring a similar situation, Boozman has put himself in position for a long career. LIKELY REPUBLICAN.

House 1 – Rick Crawford (R)

Crawford won this seat 52%-44% over his predecessor's Chief of Staff. The Northeast Republican seat has become seriously Republican in national races, while retaining its Democratic roots in local races. This gives the Democrats hope, but historically that type of seat does not return to voting for Democrats once it has crossed over to the GOP. The seat added part of Jefferson County as well as all of Lincoln, Desha, and Chicot Counties in Southeast Arkansas. The changes now mean this district runs the entire length of Arkansas's border with the Missippi. The changes do not significantly affect the political landscape here, though the black population in the new counties might give the Democrats a small boost. LEAN REPUBLICAN.

House 2 – Tim Griffin (R)

Democrats had held this Little Rock area seat until Vic Snyder retired in 2010. On top of their bigger problems the Democrats did not recruit a very good candidate, and Griffin won 58%-38%. Rural Yell County has been removed from the district in 2012, but it is too small to have much of an effect. LEAN REPUBLICAN.

House 3 – Steve Womack (R)

This part of Northwest Arkansas has always been the state’s one Republican stronghold. Republican Steve Womack won this open seat 72%-28% in 2010. This area has been booming and growing in population (thanks in large part to Wal-Mart), and as a result all of Madison, Franklin, and Johnson Counties and rural parts of Crawford and Sebastian Counties were taken out of the middle of this district. The partisan balance has not changed, however. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 4 – Mike Ross (D)

This formerly Southern Arkansas seat is a mostly Republican area, at least in national races. However, Ross has entrenched himself very well. Most such Representatitives lost in 2010, but Ross was one of the few to survive, winning 58%-40%. He may find more competition in the future, but surviving this year bodes well for his future.

The district has been struggling and has shifted into the Northwest part of the state. It lost Lincoln, Disha, and Chicot Counties and part of Jefferson County in the Southeast to the First District, but picked up Yell County from the Second District and Madison, Johnson, Franklin and parts of Crawford and Sebastian Counties from the Third District. This doesn't make a huge difference, but it does reduce the Obama 2008 percentage here from 39% to 37%. Considering that Democrats controlled redistricting, it is amazing they did this to their only incumbent. Expect Ross to become even less of a reliable vote for the Democrats. LEAN DEMOCRAT.

State of the Race - 5/14/11

2011-05-15T11:13:00.004-04:00

President Obama retains the lead this week based on a post-Osama bounce. We also see a potential Republican contender opting not to run for President, a Senator retiring and putting his seat in play, and a Democratic House member giving up a very dicey seat to run for the Senate.

Off to the races!

President

Here is our weekly look at the field for the Republican nomination. Mike Huckabee disappears after announcing he won't run. This moves Newt Gingrich up the list a bit as the most likely to benefit from the opening. Jon Huntsman supplants Mitch Daniels as the third contender for now because he has come back from China and been running hard, while Daniels continues to hamlet about and his chances of winning are tempered by his chances of not running.

The Contenders

1. Mitt Romney of Massachusetts
2. Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota
3. Jon Huntsman of Utah

Dark Horses

4. Governor Mitch Daniels of Indiana
5. Newt Gingrich of Georgia
6. Sarah Palin of Alaska
7. Herman Cain of Georgia
8. Representative Michele Bachmann of Minnesota
9. Donald Trump of New York
10. Representative Ron Paul of Texas
11. Governor Chris Christie of New Jersey
12. Representative Paul Ryan of Wisconsin

President Obama maintains his 52% post-Osama approval rating. These results continue to show a race to close to call, but with President Obama's re-election the most likely outcome with a 332-206 Electoral College victory. Potential outcomes range from a President Obama victory with 342 Electoral Votes to a Mitt Romney victory with 287 Electoral Votes. The most likely outcome shows a virtual repeat of 2008, except that Indiana and North Carolina are projected to go Republican. The closest states in the current projection are Florida and Virginia

Safe Obama (84)
DC
Hawaii
Illinois
Maryland
Massachusetts
New York
Rhode Island
Vermont

Likely Obama (81)
California
Connecticut
Delaware
Maine
Washington

Lean Obama (86)
Michigan
Minnesota
New Hampshire
New Jersey
New Mexico
Oregon
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin

Toss Up Obama (81)
Colorado
Florida
Iowa
Nevada
Ohio
Virginia

Toss Up Romney (10)
Missouri

Lean Romney (70)
Arizona
Georgia
Indiana
Montana
North Carolina
South Carolina
West Virginia

Likely Romney (83)
Arkansas
Kentucky
Louisiana
Mississippi
North Dakota
South Dakota
Tennessee
Texas

Safe Romney (43)
Alabama
Alaska
Idaho
Kansas
Nebraska
Oklahoma
Utah
Wyoming

Popular Vote: Pres. Obama 51.4%, Romney 48.6%
Electoral Vote: Pres. Obama 332, Romney 206

Governors

Fourteen gubernatorial contests will take place over the next two years. Kentucky, Louisiana, and Mississippi will hold contests in 2011. The states listed below will hold elections in 2012. New Hampshire and Vermont have two year terms for its Governor, so the Granite and Green Mountain States will have a 2012 contest despite just conducting an election. The West Virginia Supreme Court declared that there must be a special election in October to fill the final year of the unexpired term of Joe Manchin. A regularly scheduled election will follow in 2012. We will list the special election until its completion, at which time it will be replaced by the regular election.

Republicans are assured at least a split of Governor's Mansions after 2012, as they lead 25-11 in races not coming up for election in the next two years. Right now we predict the Republicans to gain between a range of two and six Govenrnor's Mansions, with the most likely outcome being four.

Safe Democrat (1)
Delaware (Jack Markell)

Likely Democrat (0)

Lean Democrat (2)
Vermont (Peter Shumlin)
Washington (Christine Gregoire)

Toss Up Democrat (2)
Missouri (Jay Nixon)
New Hampshire (John Lynch)

Toss Up Republican (2)
Kentucky (Steven Beshear)
North Carolina (Bev Perdue)

Lean Republican (2)
Indiana (Mitch Daniels retiring)
West Virginia special (Earl Ray Tomblin)

Likely Republican (2)
Louisiana (Bobby Jindal)
Montana (Brian Schweitzer retiring)

Safe Republican (3)
Mississippi (Haley Barbour retiring)
North Dakota (Jack Dalrymple)
Utah (Gary Herbert)

Republicans: 35
Democrats: 15

Senate

Wisconsin Senator Herb Kohl announced his retirement this week. Kohl had limitless pockets and was well liked, so he was likely to get a pass. His departure turns the race into a tossup, which is just one more headache for the Democrats.

Democrats will be defending the seats they won in the big Democratic year of 2006, so they start on the defensive. Republicans lead the seats not up for election 37-30. We project a gain of three Republican seats, which would split the Senate in half with control being decided by the new Vice President. We see a range of anywhere from a push to an eight seat Republican pickup. Note this is basically in a neutral climate, so the advantage shown is a Republican structural advantage based on the cycle of seats up for election. There are quite a few Democratic seats that could be very difficult for them if they continue to struggle with public opinion, and that shows up in the large number of seats in the "Lean Democrat" columnn. In other words, if the climate is as toxic as it was in 2010 the Republicans would probably win all of those "Lean Democratic" seats and pick up double digit seats.

Safe Democrat (4)
Delaware (Tom Carper)
Hawaii (Daniel Akaka retiring)
New York (Kirsten Gillibrand)
Vermont (Bernie Sanders)

Likely Democrat (4)
California (Dianne Feinstein)
Connecticut (Joe Lieberman retiring)
Maryland (Ben Cardin)
Rhode Island (Sheldon Whitehouse)

Lean Democrat (7)
Florida (Bill Nelson)
Massachusetts (Scott Brown)
Michigan (Debbie Stabenow)
Minnesota (Amy Klobuchar)
New Jersey (Robert Menendez)
Pennsylvania (Robert Casey, Jr.)
Washington (Maria Cantwell)

Toss Up Democrat (5)
Nebraska (Ben Nelson)
Nevada (Dean Heller)
New Mexico (Jeff Bingaman retiring)
Ohio (Sherrod Brown)
Wisconsin (Herb Kohl retiring)

Toss Up Republican (3)
Missouri (Claire McCaskill)
Virginia (Jim Webb retiring)
West Virginia (Joe Manchin)

Lean Republican (4)
Arizona (Jon Kyl retiring)
Mississippi (Roger Wicker)
Montana (Jon Tester)
Tennessee (Bob Corker)

Likely Republican (1)
Maine (Olympia Snowe)

Safe Republican (5)
Indiana (Richard Lugar)
North Dakota (Kent Conrad retiring)
Texas (Kay Bailey Hutchison retiring)
Utah (Orrin Hatch)
Wyoming (John Barrasso)

Democrats: 50
Republicans: 50

House

Rep. Joe Donnelly announced his running for Richard Lugar's Senate seat as opposed to seeking reelection in IN-2. This was widely considered a nod to the reality that Donnelly's swing district will be made more Republican in redistricting. I'll wait to see the final map, but for now this remains a Tossup Republican seat.

Also, Arkansas, Iowa, Louisiana, and Missouri have completed redistricting. I admit I have only had time to review the map for Arkansas. That state's ratings reflect the new map, but the others remain based on my previous rough estimates. This will change as I get more time.

Here's how I handle redistricting. To simplify things, I am going to refer to districts by number as if they were constant. This will lead to reported "pickups" for parties that are just district renumberings, but I think doing it this way will help keep things straight. For example, New Jersey is on track to lose a seat. We will "eliminate" the highest numbered district in the state, NJ-13 held by Albio Sires. However, Sires will almost certainly have a district he can win, it will just have a different number. For argument's sake, let's say that Leonard Lance, a Republican currently representing the Seventh District, is effectively drawn out when his district is eliminated and parceled out among other districts, and Sires's district is renamed the Seventh. We will say that Sires's seat was eliminated but that the Democrats picked up the Seventh District. This will even out after we factor for all the states.

Under this format, the following districts will be eliminated.

IL-19 (John Shimkus)
IA-5 (Steve King)
LA-7 (Charles Boustany)
MA-10 (Bill Keating)
MI-15 (John Dingell)
MO-9 (Blaine Leutkemeyer)
NJ-13 (Albio Sires)
NY-28 (Louise Slaughter)
NY-29 (Tom Reed)
OH-17 (Tim Ryan)
OH-18 (Bob Gibbs)
PA-19 (Todd Platts)

That is seven Republicans and four Democrats. Expect most of these members to show up in other districts come 2013. These seats will be replaced by eleven new seats in other states. Those will be listed in italics. To help keep this all straight, we are going to break with tradition and list every seat, even in safe districts.

This gives the Republicans a four seat pickup as a base scenario, primarily due to redistricting. We envision a range, depending on the climate, of anywhere between a 39 seat Democratic pickup and a 41 seat Republican pickup. There are about 70 seats that form the potential battlefield for the 2012 elections.

Safe Democrat (102)
AL-7 (Terri Sewell)
AZ-4 (Ed Pastor)
CA-1 (Mike Thompson)
CA-5 (Doris Matsui)
CA-6 (Lynn Woolsey)
CA-7 (George Miller)
CA-8 (Nancy Pelosi)
CA-9 (Barbara Lee)
CA-10 (John Garamendi)
CA-12 (Jackie Speier)
CA-13 (Pete Stark)
CA-14 (Anna Eshoo)
CA-15 (Mike Honda)
CA-16 (Zoe Lofgren)
CA-17 (Sam Farr)
CA-27 (Brad Sherman)
CA-28 (Howard Berman)
CA-29 (Adam Schiff)
CA-30 (Henry Waxman)
CA-31 (Xavier Becerra)
CA-32 (Judy Chu)
CA-33 (Karen Bass)
CA-34 (Lucille Roybal-Allard)
CA-35 (Maxine Waters)
CA-36 special (VACANT)
CA-37 (Laura Richardson)
CA-38 (Grace Napolitano)
CA-39 (Linda Sanchez)
CA-43 (Joe Baca)
CA-53 (Susan Davis)
CO-1 (Diana DeGette)
CT-1 (John Larson)
CT-3 (Rosa DeLauro)
FL-3 (Corrine Brown)
FL-11 (Kathy Castor)
FL-17 (Frederica Wilson)
FL-19 (Ted Deutch)
FL-20 (Debbie Wasserman Schultz)
FL-23 (Alcee Hastings)
GA-4 (Hank Johnson)
GA-5 (John Lewis)
GA-13 (David Scott)
HI-2 (Mazie Hirono)
IL-1 (Bobby Rush)
IL-2 (Jesse Jackson, Jr.)
IL-3 (Dan Lipinski)
IL-4 (Luis Gutierrez)
IL-5 (Mike Quigley)
IL-7 (Danny Davis)
IL-9 (Jan Schakowsky)
IN-7 (Andre Carson)
LA-2 (Cedric Richmond)
MD-2 (Dutch Ruppersberger)
MD-4 (Donna Edwards)
MD-5 (Steny Hoyer)
MD-7 (Elijah Cummings)
MD-8 (Chris Van Hollen)
MA-1 (John Olver)
MA-7 (Edward Markey)
MA-8 (Michael Capuano)
MA-9 (Stephen Lynch)
MI-12 (Sander Levin)
MI-13 (Hansen Clarke)
MI-14 (John Conyers)
MN-5 (Keith Ellison)
MS-2 (Bennie Thompson)
MO-1 (William Lacy Clay)
NV-1 (Shelley Berkley retiring)
NJ-1 (Robert Andrews)
NJ-8 (Bill Pascrell)
NJ-9 (Steven Rothman)
NJ-10 (Donald Payne)
NY-5 (Gary Ackerman)
NY-6 (Gregory Meeks)
NY-7 (Joseph Crowley)
NY-8 (Jerrold Nadler)
NY-10 (Edolphus Towns)
NY-11 (Yvette Clark)
NY-12 (Nydia Velazquez)
NY-14 (Carolyn Maloney)
NY-15 (Charles Rangel)
NY-16 (Jose Serrano)
NY-17 (Eliot Engel)
NY-18 (Nita Lowey)
NC-12 (Melvin Watt)
OH-11 (Marcia Fudge)
OR-3 (Earl Blumenauer)
PA-1 (Robert Brady)
PA-2 (Chaka Fattah)
SC-6 (James Clyburn)
TN-9 (Steve Cohen)
TX-9 (Al Green)
TX-18 (Sheila Jackson Lee)
TX-20 (Charles Gonzalez)
TX-29 (Gene Green)
TX-30 (Eddie Bernice Johnson)
VT-AL (Peter Welch)
VA-3 (Bobby Scott)
VA-8 (Jim Moran)
WA-7 (Jim McDermott)
WI-2 (Tammy Baldwin)
WI-4 (Gwen Moore)

Likely Democrat (27)
CA-18 (Dennis Cardoza)
CA-23 (Lois Capps)
CA-51 (Bob Filner)
CO-2 (Jared Polis)
CT-2 (Joe Courtney)
DE-AL (John Carney)
HI-1 (Colleeen Hanabusa)
IL-12 (Jerry Costello)
IN-1 (Peter Visclosky)
ME-1 (Chellie Pingree)
MD-3 (John Sarbanes)
MA-2 (Richard Neal)
MA-3 (Jim McGovern)
MA-6 (John Tierney)
MN-4 (Betty McCollum)
NM-3 (Ben Ray Lujan)
NY-9 (Anthony Weiner)
NY-21 (Paul Tonko)
NY-27 (Brian Higgins)
NC-1 (G.K. Butterfield)
NC-4 (David Price)
OH-9 (Marcy Kaptur)
RI-1 (David Cicilline)
RI-2 (Jim Langevin)
TX-16 (Silvestre Reyes)
WA-1 (Jay Inslee)
WA-6 (Norm Dicks)

Lean Democrat (22)
AR-4 (Mike Ross)
GA-12 (John Barrow)
KY-3 (John Yarmuth)
ME-2 (Michael Michaud)
MA-4 (Barney Frank)
MA-5 (Niki Tsongas)
MN-7 (Collin Peterson)
MO-5 (Emanuel Cleaver)
NJ-6 (Dave Pallone)
NM-1 (Martin Heinrich retiring)
NY-2 (Steve Israel)
NY-4 (Carolyn McCarthy)
NC-13 (Brad Miller)
OH-13 (Betty Sutton)
OR-1 (David Wu)
PA-13 (Allyson Schwartz)
PA-14 (Mike Doyle)
PA-17 (Tim Holden)
TN-5 (Jim Cooper)
TX-15 (Ruben Hinojosa)
TX-28 (Henry Cuellar)
WA-9 (Adam Smith)
WV-3 (Nick Rahall)

Toss Up Democrat (37)
AZ-7 (Raul Grijalva)
CA-20 (Jim Costa)
CA-47 (Loretta Sanchez)
CO-7 (Ed Perlmutter)
CT-4 (Jim Himes)
CT-5 (Chris Murphy retiring)
GA-2 (Sanford Bishop)
IL-10 (Robert Dold)
IA-1 (Bruce Braley)
IA-2 (Dave Loebsack)
IA-3 (Leonard Boswell)
MI-5 (Dale Kildee)
MI-9 (Gary Peters)
MN-1 (Tim Walz)
MO-3 (Russ Carnahan)
MN-8 (Chip Cravaack)
NV-3 (Joe Heck)
NV-4 (NEW)
NH-2 (Charlie Bass)
NJ-12 (Rush Holt)
NY-1 (Tim Bishop)
NY-22 (Maurice Hinchey)
NY-25 (Ann Marie Buerkle)
NC-7 (Mike McIntyre)
NC-8 (Larry Kissell)
NC-11 (Heath Shuler)
OH-10 (Dennis Kucinich)
OK-2 (Dan Boren)
OR-4 (Peter DeFazio)
OR-5 (Kurt Schrader)
PA-12 (Mark Critz)
TX-25 (Lloyd Doggett)
VA-11 (Gerald Connolly)
WA-2 (Rick Larsen)
WA-10 (NEW)
WI-3 (Ron Kind)
WI-7 (Sean Duffy)

Toss Up Republican (44)
AZ-1 (Paul Gosar)
AZ-5 (David Schweikert)
AZ-8 (Gabrielle Gifffords)
CA-3 (Dan Lungren)
CA-11 (Jerry McNerney)
CA-26 (David Dreier)
CA-45 (Mary Bono Mack)
CO-3 (Scott Tipton)
FL-12 (Dennis Ross)
FL-22 (Allen West)
FL-25 (David Rivera)
IL-8 (Joe Walsh)
IL-14 (Randy Hultgren)
IL-17 (Bobby Schilling)
IN-2 (Joe Donnelly retiring)
KY-6 (Ben Chandler)
MI-1 (Dan Benishek)
MI-7 (Tim Walberg)
MN-6 (Michele Bachmann)
NH-1 (Frank Guinta)
NJ-3 (Jon Runyan)
NY-13 (Mike Grimm)
NY-19 (Nan Hayworth)
NY-20 (Christopher Gibson)
NY-23 (Bill Owens)
NY-24 (Richard Hanna)
NC-2 (Renee Ellmers)
OH-1 (Steve Chabot)
OH-6 (Bill Johnson)
OH-15 (Steve Stivers)
OH-16 (Jim Renacci)
PA-4 (Jason Altmire)
PA-7 (Patrick Meehan)
PA-8 (Michael Fitzpatrick)
PA-11 (Lou Barletta)
PA-15 (Charlie Dent)
SD-AL (Kristi Noem)
TX-23 (Quico Canseco)
TX-27 (Blake Farenthold)
UT-2 (Jim Matheson)
VA-5 (Robert Hurt)
WA-3 (Jaime Herrera)
WA-8 (Dave Reichert)
WI-8 (Reid Ribble)

Lean Republican (24)
AZ-3 (Ben Quayle)
AR-1 (Rick Crawford)
AR-2 (Tim Griffin)
CA-44 (Ken Calvert)
CA-50 (Brian Bilbray)
CO-4 (Cory Gardner)
FL-2 (Steve Southerland)
FL-8 (Daniel Webster)
GA-8 (Austin Scott)
IL-11 (Adam Kinzinger)
IN-9 (Todd Young)
KS-3 (Kevin Yoder)
MN-3 (Erik Paulsen)
NM-2 (Steve Pearce)
NY-26 special (VACANT)
NV-2 special (VACANT)
PA-3 (Mike Kelly)
PA-6 (Jim Gerlach)
PA-10 (Thomas Marino)
SC-2 (Joe Wilson)
SC-5 (Mick Mulvaney)
VA-2 (Scott Rigell)
VA-9 (Morgan Griffith)
WV-1 (David McKinley)

Likely Republican (20)
AL-2 (Martha Roby)
AL-3 (Mike Rogers)
CA-2 (Wally Herger)
CA-24 (Elton Gallegly)
CA-48 (John Campbell)
FL-24 (Sandy Adams)
FL-26 (NEW)
ID-1 (Raul Labrador)
IN-8 (Larry Bucshon)
MD-1 (Andy Harris)
MI-3 (Justin Amash)
MI-11 (Thaddeus McCotter)
MS-1 (Alan Nunnelee)
MO-4 (Vicky Hartzler)
MT-AL (Denny Rehberg retiring)
NJ-7 (Leonard Lance)
ND-AL (Rick Berg)
OH-12 (Pat Tiberi)
TN-8 (Stephen Fincher)
VA-7 (Eric Cantor)

Safe Republican (158)
AL-1 (Jo Bonner)
AL-4 (Robert Aderholt)
AL-5 (Mo Brooks)
AL-6 (Spencer Bachus)
AK-AL (Don Young)
AZ-2 (Trent Franks)
AZ-6 (Jeff Flake retiring)
AZ-9 (NEW)
AR-3 (Steve Womack)
CA-4 (Tom McClintock)
CA-19 (Jeff Denham)
CA-21 (Devin Nunes)
CA-22 (Kevin McCarthy)
CA-25 (Buck McKeon)
CA-40 (Ed Royce)
CA-41 (Jerry Lewis)
CA-42 (Gary Miller)
CA-46 (Dana Rohrabacher)
CA-49 (Darrell Issa)
CA-52 (Duncan D. Hunter)
CO-5 (Doug Lamborn)
CO-6 (Mike Coffman)
FL-1 (Jeff Miller)
FL-4 (Ander Crenshaw)
FL-5 (Richard Nugent)
FL-6 (Cliff Stearns)
FL-7 (John Mica)
FL-9 (Gus Bilirakis)
FL-10 (Bill Young)
FL-13 (Vern Buchanan)
FL-14 (Connie Mack)
FL-15 (Bill Posey)
FL-16 (Tom Rooney)
FL-18 (Ileana Ros-Lehtinen)
FL-21 (Mario Diaz-Balart)
FL-27 (NEW)
GA-1 (Jack Kingston)
GA-3 (Lynn Westmoreland)
GA-6 (Tom Price)
GA-7 (Rob Woodall)
GA-9 (Tom Graves)
GA-10 (Paul Broun)
GA-11 (Phil Gingrey)
GA-14 (NEW)
ID-2 (Mike Simpson)
IL-6 (Peter Roskam)
IL-13 (Judy Biggert)
IL-15 (Tim Johnson)
IL-16 (Don Manzullo)
IL-18 (Aaron Schock)
IN-3 (Marlin Stutzman)
IN-4 (Todd Rokita)
IN-5 (Dan Burton)
IN-6 (Mike Pence retiring)
IA-4 (Tom Latham)
KS-1 (Tim Huelskamp)
KS-2 (Lynn Jenkins)
KS-4 (Mike Pompeo)
KY-1 (Ed Whitfield)
KY-2 (Brett Guthrie)
KY-4 (Geoff Davis)
KY-5 (Harold Rogers)
LA-1 (Steve Scalise)
LA-3 (Jeff Landry)
LA-4 (John Fleming)
LA-5 (Rodney Alexander)
LA-6 (Bill Cassidy)
MD-6 (Roscoe Bartlett)
MI-2 (Bill Huizenga)
MI-4 (Dave Camp)
MI-6 (Fred Upton)
MI-8 (Mike Rogers)
MI-10 (Candice Miller)
MN-2 (John Kline)
MS-3 (Gregg Harper)
MS-4 (Steven Palazzo)
MO-2 (Todd Akin)
MO-6 (Sam Graves)
MO-7 (Billy Long)
MO-8 (Jo Ann Emerson)
NE-1 (Jeff Fortenberry)
NE-2 (Lee Terry)
NE-3 (Adrian Smith)
NJ-2 (Frank LoBiondo)
NJ-4 (Chris Smith)
NJ-5 (Scott Garrett)
NJ-11 (Rodney Frelinghuysen)
NY-3 (Peter King)
NC-3 (Walter Jones)
NC-5 (Virginia Foxx)
NC-6 (Howard Coble)
NC-9 (Sue Myrick)
NC-10 (Patrick McHenry)
OH-2 (Jean Schmidt)
OH-3 (Mike Turner)
OH-4 (Jim Jordan)
OH-5 (Bob Latta)
OH-7 (Steve Austria)
OH-8 (John Boehner)
OH-14 (Steven LaTourette)
OK-1 (John Sullivan)
OK-3 (Frank Lucas)
OK-4 (Tom Cole)
OK-5 (James Lankford)
OR-2 (Greg Walden)
PA-5 (Glenn Thompson)
PA-9 (Bill Shuster)
PA-16 (Joe Pitts)
PA-18 (Tim Murphy)
SC-1 (Tim Scott)
SC-3 (Jeff Duncan)
SC-4 (Trey Gowdy)
SC-7 (NEW)
TN-1 (Phil Roe)
TN-2 (John Duncan)
TN-3 (Chuck Fleischmann)
TN-4 (Scott DesJarlais)
TN-6 (Diane Black)
TN-7 (Marsha Blackburn)
TX-1 (Louie Gohmert)
TX-2 (Ted Poe)
TX-3 (Sam Johnson)
TX-4 (Ralph Hall)
TX-5 (Jeb Hensarling)
TX-6 (Joe Barton)
TX-7 (John Culberson)
TX-8 (Kevin Brady)
TX-10 (Michael McCaul)
TX-11 (Mike Conaway)
TX-12 (Kay Granger)
TX-13 (Mac Thornberry)
TX-14 (Ron Paul)
TX-17 (Bill Flores)
TX-19 (Randy Neugebauer)
TX-21 (Lamar Smith)
TX-22 (Pete Olson)
TX-24 (Kenny Marchant)
TX-26 (Michael Burgess)
TX-31 (John Carter)
TX-32 (Pete Sessions)
TX-33 (NEW)
TX-34 (NEW)
TX-35 (NEW)
TX-36 (NEW)
UT-1 (Rob Bishop)
UT-3 (Jason Chaffetz)
UT-4 (NEW)
VA-1 (Rob Wittman)
VA-4 (Randy Forbes)
VA-6 (Bob Goodlatte)
VA-10 (Frank Wolf)
WA-4 (Doc Hastings)
WA-5 (Cathy McMorris Rodgers)
WV-2 (Shelley Moore Capito)
WI-1 (Paul Ryan)
WI-5 (Jim Sensenbrenner)
WI-6 (Tom Petri)
WY-AL (Cynthia Lummis)

Republicans: 246
Democrats: 189

The Primary Trap

2011-05-14T23:00:00.002-04:00

In 2008, Tom Tancredo ran for the Republican nomination for President. He had no chance of winning or even contending. He did have one issue that he wanted to push. Tom Tancredo happens to be the most persistent anti-immigration politician of his time. At every event and debate, Tancredo pushed for his heavy crackdown on illegal immigration. Tancredo never got anywhere with his campaign, but nevertheless he got his issue to resonate. First John McCain, who had previously been the chief Senate sponsor of a comprehensive immigration reform bill, started calling for "border security first." Then Mitt Romney and Rudy Giuliani, both of whom had not previously featured anti-immigration positions, started advocating crackdowns. Tancredo joked in one debate that they were trying to "out-Tancredo Tancredo."

The end result was not pretty for the Republicans. McCain had early hopes of surpassing George W. Bush's 40%+ of the Hispanic vote. Thanks in part to his new found anti-immigration zeal, he instead sank to 31% of the vote. Republicans had let a fringe candidate push them to a bad political position, and the end results were disastrous.

Republicans would be well served not to make this mistake again. Still, there will be no shortage of fringe candidates in the 2012 nominating process, so the risk remains. A look at the fringe candidates reveals some potential traps for Republican contenders. What are some issues that may come up and provide a trap serious candidates would be well advised to avoid?

Here are some potential pet issues from the 2012 Tancredo equivalents:

Michele Bachmann - Census conspiracies

Herman Cain - Gold standard

Gary Johnson - Legalization of Marijuana (highly unlikely to be adopted by wider GOP)

Roy Moore - Ten Commandments, God in the Judiciary

Ron Paul - Gold Standard, Isolationism

Rick Santorum - Intelligent Design, anti-gay issues

Donald Trump - Birtherism, bizarre claims about Obama

None of these candidates have a prayer of winning the nomination. None of these issue positions will help the Republican Party unseat Obama, and none of them are necessary to win the nomination. These issue positions really only appeal to the far right of the Republican Party. It is vital that the eventual nominee not fall into the trap of letting the fringe candidates set the agenda as happened four years ago. As we go forward, watch how the real contenders handle the pretender pack and cringe if any of them co-opt these fringy agendas.

State of the Day - Arizona

2011-05-14T13:35:00.000-04:00

Arizona has some of the oldest communities of Native Americans, but it is also one of the nation’s fastest growing states. Its population increased 27% in the last decade. Originally, Arizona was a sparsely populated, agricultural state. However, after World War II, the state’s libertarian policies, personified by Senator Barry Goldwater, attracted many new businesses and people who helped make Arizona one of the most Republican states. It has grown through immigration, but also attracted Americans from other states drawn by the booming technology and housing sectors. Illegal immigration from Mexico has caused controversy, culminating in the nationally controversial bill requiring police officers to inquire about immigration status in certain situations in 2010. The issue has festered even as crackdowns and a slowing economy has reduced immigration. The housing collapse had a particularly pernicious effect here, and puts the state’s low taxes at risk. Democrats have improved their standing this decade, with Janet Napolitano twice winning the Governor’s Mansion and the capture of three formerly Republican House seats in 2006 and 2008. Still, the state still retains its libertarian consensus, even if the immigration issue appears to be driving the 2010 elections.

2010 was a disaster for Arizona Democrats. Despite winning national attention for a bumbling debate performance, Republican Governor Jan Brewer won reelection easily over a strong Democratic opponent. Democrats lost two House seats (and kept a third only because of a terrible Republican candidate) all while failing to threaten John McCain. Arizona should be more competitive in a normal year, but given the rise of the immigration issue and President Obama's suit against the state, it seems that Republicans will maintain an advantage, at least for the short term.

Arizona will pick up one seat in 2012. Arizona has an independent redistricting commision. The fastest growing area by far is the heavily Republican Phoenix suburbs. This would make it pretty likely to create a new seat that, at minimum, gives Republicans a very good chance to win. if I had to guess, a heavily Republican seat will be created at the expense of strengthening Eighth District Democrat Gabrielle Giffords.

President – 11 Electoral Votes

Frankly, Barack Obama probably would have won this state in 2008 had John McCain not been the Republican nominee. He has probably hurt his standing in the state during his time in office. While I generally do not think the immigration issue is a big winner for Republicans in general elections (see Hayworth, JD and Graf, Randy), suing the state with great fanfare probably will not work in his favor. Also, the immigration issue seemed to work better for Arizona Republicans in 2010 than it did in 2006 or 2008. A December poll showed that 54% of Arizonans “strongly disapproved” of Obama. He has perhaps put Arizona too far out of reach, but if the President can build on the death of bin Laden and improve his standing in general, the state is not impossible.

As of now, Arizona’s primary is scheduled for February 28, three weeks after Super Tuesday. It could very well move up as it has before. It is a wide open state which could be very important if there is still a race after Super Tuesday. Arizona is more libertarian than social conservative and seems to have a preference for economic conservatives. Steve Forbes won here in 1996 and Mitt Romney lost to Arizonan John McCain by a respectable 47%-34% here in 2008. Thus, it might be one of the few places in the nation where Gary Johnson can get votes and is probably a must win for Jon Huntsman. LEAN REPUBLICAN.

Governor – Jan Brewer (R)

Brewer was elected Secretary of State in 2002 and became Governor in 2009 when Janet Napolitano resigned to become Secretary of Homeland Security. For a while her standing was very weak, and she faced primary challenges and was running behind Democratic Attorney General Terry Goddard. However, her standing improved drastically when she signed the immigration law. Her primary challenges essentially disappeared, and she started running twenty points ahead of Goddard, and continued to do so even after a disastrous debate performance. Brewer ended up winning 55%-42%, and is now a national star for anti-immigration conservatives. LEAN REPUBLICAN.

Senior Senator – John McCain (R)

McCain faced a strong primary challenge from former Rep. J.D. Hayworth, but easily checked it by moving himself shamelessly to the right. McCain fancies himself as an honorable and principled man, but he gets to be the own judge of his honor and principle. He never had any serious risk of losing to Democrat Rodney Glassman, winning 59%-35%. McCain is likely a Senator for life should he choose to be. LIKELY REPUBLICAN.

Junior Senator – Jon Kyl (R)

The Minority Whip opted to retire after three terms. Rep. Jeff Flake has already announced his candidacy and is the likely nominee. Flake is extremely economically conservative but otherwise somewhat independent. He could be a disaster or he could be brilliant.

The Democrats seem to be waiting to see if Rep. Gabrielle Giffords can and will run for this seat. I am not going to speculate on her health status or what kind of campaign she might be able to run. If she does not run for whatever reason, Democrats are looking at an uphill contest. LEAN REPUBLICAN.

House 1 – Paul Gosar (R)

This sprawling Northeast Arizona seat leans Republican, but Democrat Ann Kirkpatrick won it in one of the more impressive victories of 2008. She stayed out of trouble but in a year like 2010 had no chance against Gosar, a very conservative dentist who sported an endorsement from Sarah Palin. Even so, he won only 50%-44%, indicating his position going forward is hardly safe. The seat will need to lose 110,000 people, and that will probably come from the more Republican areas closer to Phoenix, so this seat could be very interesting in 2012. TOSSUP REPUBLICAN.

House 2 – Trent Franks (R)

This is a safe Republican seat that includes Northwest Arizona all the way down to Sun City. It needs to lose 213,000 people. The easiest thing to do would be to take that to help create a new seat in the Phoenix suburbs, which might create an interesting open seat in the non-Phoenix area, since the Glendale resident Franks would probably stay at home. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 3 – Ben Quayle (R)

Republicans had a contentious primary for this open seat in 2010 and nominated the son of the former Vice President, who won 52%-41%, which is not particularly impressive for this mostly Republican Suburban Phoenix seat. Quayle has already said some questionable things, so he has the potential to be one of those controversial types that has trouble holding a seat that should be held pretty easy, like Marilyn Musgrave or Bill Sali. The seat needs to lose only 13,000 people, so it should stay pretty much the same. LEAN REPUBLICAN.

House 4 – Ed Pastor (D)

This is a safe Democratic Hispanic majority seat in Phoenix. The seat should see only minor changes, shedding 21,000 people to meet the equal population standard. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

House 5 – David Schweikert (R)

Bombastic conservative JD Hayworth lost this seat in 2006 to Harry Mitchell. The Democrat retained his seat in 2008 by defeating Schweikert 53%-44%. One health care vote and one completely different political climate later, Schweikert beat Mitchell by a near mirror image 52%-43%. This seat actually needs to pick up 4,000 people in redistricting, and should remain basically the same. TOSSUP REPUBLICAN.

House 6 – Jeff Flake (R)

Flake is vacating this seat to run for the Senate, but Democrats have no chance in this suburban Phoenix seat. It grew by an astounding 45% in the last decade and needs to lose about 249,000 people. The excess will provide a great base for another Republican seat. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 7 – Raul Grijalva (D)

This Southwest Arizona district is not as Democratic a district as you would think given Grijalva’s emergence as a champion of left wing causes. Grijalva went too far when he recommended a boycott of Arizona over the immigration law. His margin went way down to 50%-44%. The seat needs to lose about 100,000 people, and this should help Grijava as the Phoenix suburbs in his district will probably be taken out. Still, Grijalva will be hard pressed next time as Republicans will probably target him from the beginning of the cycle. TOSSUP DEMOCRAT.

House 8 – Gabrielle Giffords (D)

Obviously, Giffords was the victim of a senseless tragedy and her recovery is much more important than any political speculation about her future, which I won't engage in. I'll just say that Giffords needed an atrocious Republican opponent to survive the 2010 wave 49%-47%, and this district needs to lose 43,000 redistricting and it would be possible to help, hurt, or leave the same Democratic strength here. TOSSUP REPUBLICAN.

Debt Limit Debate Classical Washington Silliness

2011-05-13T13:48:00.004-04:00

Do you ever feel like Washington exists on its own planet? That it has its own rules of logic completely incomprehensible to the rest of us? That this planet is completely disconnected from the one the rest of the world lives on? If you believe this, you must love the debate over raising the debt limit.

Congress raises the debt limit frequently and without impunity. Absolutely nobody views it any sort of hard cap or anything else but an arbitrary number. At this point when a debt limit is set Congress knows at the time of setting it that it will have to be raised again. It is kind of like giving Kirstie Alley a cookie limit. It is clear that the debt limit hold no serious purpose. Still, Congress persists in the charade because apparently it collectively thinks that you are stupid enough to think that if it has a debt limit, it must be serious about fiscal discipline.

Since nobody takes the debt limit seriously, it is never factored into budgeting decisions. Therefore when we hit the debt ceiling, Congress is never ready to immediately balance the budget. Thus, the ceiling must be raised or economic chaos would reign. As a result, everybody knows the limit has to be raised. Even Tim Pawlenty. Still, since this is Washington we have to a giant kabuki rain dance about the issue.

Still, Members of Congress believe that they can prove their fiscally conservative bona fides by opposing an increase in the debt limit. When you're a Member of Congress, you can take as many dumb and irresponsible positions as you want as long as you don't manage to bring a majority along with you. They all dream of using a vote against raising the debt limit to score cheap political points like Barack Obama did in 2006. They can change their position later when their opinion actually matters on its own, as Obama did.

So what we have here is a ridiculous exercise where everyone knows they have to vote to increase the debt ceiling and nobody wants to vote for it. The end result of this is endless public posing and political posturing as those who we elected to make the difficult decisions of our national stewardship look to pawn the responsibility for doing so on their colleagues. It's like a game of chicken, but instead of blinking the losers vote yes.

The whole exercise is beyond ridiculous. The President really has all the cards here, since at the end of the day Congress is going to have to raise the ceiling and he knows it. He really should just refuse to negotiate on the matter. If he can't explain to the American people that the debt ceiling has zero to do with actual fiscal discipline, his communication skills are entirely overrated.

When the immediate situation dies down, Congress really should just abolish the debt ceiling and concentrate on things that matter, like the budget. Voters, as you watch this song and dance, remember that all those politicians posture like this because they assume we're a bunch of idiots. Don't fall for it.

State of the Day - Alaska

2011-05-13T10:52:00.000-04:00

Alaska is a unique state that has always balanced reliance on the federal government with a very libertarian attitude. It is a diverse state that is becoming more urban, but that has quite a bit of the wild in its makeup. The state’s economy has centered around oil and energy since the North Slope Oil Strike of 1967. Oil has provided revenue for the state, but it has even further increased federal involvement in the state regulating the oil and building environmental safeguards. Alaska citizens get a yearly dividend check from the $28 billion Permanent Fund, originally set up from North Slope proceeds. The state’s native population has problems, but thanks in large part to smart federal policies, they do better here than in the “Lower 48”. Other federal policies have been more controversial, such as the ban on oil drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge. The newest energy project in Alaska is a natural gas pipeline, which was the main issue that brought Sarah Palin to the Governor’s Mansion. Fishing and tourism remain important. Corruption has been a problem, and Palin capitalized on corruption issues surrounding former Republican Governor Frank Murkowski, former Senator Ted Stevens, Rep. Don Young, and several state legislators. By 2008, this had overwhelmed the ability of the veteran Congressional delegation to secure federal funds. Stevens lost and Young nearly did as well. Despite these setbacks and some local quirks, Alaska remains mostly Republican.

After their brief 2008 resurgence, Alaska Democrats turned back into pumpkins in 2010, as Governor Sean Parnell and Rep. Don Young were re-elected easily. Conservatives did suffer a defeat of sorts as Senator Lisa Murkowski was reelected as a write-in after losing the Republican primary to Joe Miller, who promptly imploded.

There is no reason to believe that Democrats can challenge Young or contend for the state's three Electoral Votes in 2012.

President - 3 Electoral Votes

Alaska briefly looked potentially competitive in 2008 until Sarah Palin arrived on the Republican ticket. Had McCain looked elsewhere for a running mate, he probably still would have won Alaska. I cannot imagine the state being competitive in 2012, and presumably Alaska will send Palin delegates to the national convention if she runs. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

Governor – Sean Parnell (R)

Parnell came close to a promotion twice in 2008, losing a primary challenge to Don Young by 204 votes and then finding himself in position to succeed Sarah Palin should she have been elected Vice President. He remained Lieutenant Governor, but surprisingly became Governor when Palin resigned. Parnell easily defeated Ethan Berkowitz 59%-38%, and given Alaska's Republican bent will be a strong favorite for another term in 2014. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

Senior Senator – Lisa Murkowski (R)

Murkowski lost the primary narrowly to Tea Partier Joe Miller. The Republican nominee turned out to be one of the worst candidates in recent memory, totally alienating pretty much anybody outside of the activist Republican base. The Democrat was a total non-entity. As a result, Murkowski managed to win reelection as a write-in candidate 39%-35% to 23% for the Democrat. Miller unsuccessfully contested the outcome in court. Murkowski will get another six years, and God only knows what will happen in 2016. TOSSUP REPUBLICAN.

Junior Senator – Mark Begich (D)

I feel pretty certain in saying that Begich would not have won had Ted Stevens not been convicted of a felony a week before the election. I say this because Stevens came disturbingly close to winning anyway. Any ambitious Alaska Republican is almost certainly eyeing this race already. Begich will certainly do all he can to produce a moderate record, though he did support the Obama Health Bill. He would have pretty much no chance against a generic Republican in a year like 2010, but we have no idea what 2014 will look like. I still think he will begin his race as an underdog. LEAN REPUBLICAN.

House At-Large – Don Young (R)

Young nearly lost both primary and general elections in 2008 due to ethical issues. It looked as if an indictment was imminent, but two years later nothing has come of that. Until something does, Young is safe. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

The Ugly Issue

2011-05-12T12:29:00.000-04:00

Tuesday in El Paso, Texas, President Barack Obama gave a speech calling for comprehensive immigration reform and a path to legal status for the nation's estimated 11 million illegal aliens. This stance is in keeping with campaign promises, although the President took no steps to make this happen even when Democrats dominated Congress.

Across the state in Austin at the same time, Republicans used their supermajority to pass a bill through the state House outlawing "sanctuary cities" for illegal immigrants, over the passionate and at times emotional objections of Democrats, particularly Hispanics. This bill seemed to emerge from a campaign attack by Governor Perry against former Houston Mayor Bill White accusing the City of Houston's Police Department of not enforcing immigration laws. The City's policy was exactly the same as the State of Texas's in that regard, not that Perry or anyone else cared.

And so, the State of Texas managed to exhibit both sides of the nastiest and ugliest issue in modern politics. For students of history, the current battle over immigration policy should not take anyone by surprise. The issue flares up about every thirty years or so, and in previous epochs has targeted whatever the immigrant group du jour happened to be, whether it be Slavs, Irish, Italians, Chinese, Japanese, Martian, or whatever. Today the battle is primarily over Hispanics from Mexico and Central America, but the fault lines are the same as they have ever been going back two centuries.

Immigration is not a key issue for most Americans, at least not compared to the economy or health care. But like abortion, it is a passionate subject for a relative few on the ends of the political spectrum, which leads to the worst kind of pandering. Compared to other areas the issues are relatively simple and there is a pretty wide ground for reasonable compromise, but there is no issue today that brings out the worst in people and the political leadership like this one. Cynical actions by both Democrats and Republicans simply stoke the issues past the point where anything productive will occur.

Democrats seem to see everything through the lenses of race and ethnicity, and this issue is no different. Democrats do not like to discuss the law or policies. Instead, anybody that wants to enforce the immigration laws is anti-Hispanic. Certainly several accusations of "racism" were thrown about during the Texas House debate. This belittles the law of our nation and comes across as nothing but a cynical ploy to win Hispanic votes. Democrats did not move on this issue in 2009-2010 when they probably could have, which leaves one to wonder about whether they prefer using the political issue to get votes.

A side effect of this attitude is the idea that illegal aliens are just like anybody else and any attempt to enforce the immigration laws is racist, immoral, a violation of human rights, etc. Listening to liberals on this issue, one can forget that we do indeed have a legal system of immigration in this country and millions of people are not following those laws. The very fact that so many people ignore the law and then find themselves living outside the law in many ways IS a real problem. You cannot make this problem go away by calling your opponents racist.

Of course, anytime a mass number of people simply ignore the law, like a 55 mile per hour speed limit on I-10 or Texas's old law mandating that all sex take place in the missionary position, that's a pretty good indication that the law does not make sense. Our laws concerning who can come here legally, which have not been seriously altered in decades, do not make sense because they have no basis in modern reality. They are based on family relationships and nationality, which each nation getting a "quota" based on a formula that has no bearing on the situation today. There is clearly a market for the labor services of immigrants in manual labor fields, and that market is going to be filled whether the law allows for it or not. This brings us to the point that too many conservatives do not understand.

You cannot fix illegal immigration unless you fix legal immigration. Period.

Finding and deporting all illegal immigrants is not feasible. The vast majority of these immigrants are hard workers who are simply trying to give themselves a better life. They will have children that grow up to speak English and be productive citizens. This combination is good, and there is no reason the law should not give non-criminals who can secure work a legal place of some sort in this country. If we could make it relatively easy for such people to come here legally, there would be no excuse to be here illegally. Thus, if we caught people here illegally we could reasonably sure they were up to no good and deport them without any qualms. The law should recognize the existing labor market and try to separate the solid citizen immigrants from the criminals and terrorists that we do have a need to expel. Refusing to change the legal immigration systems gives those darker elements a vast network in which to hide and escape detection, and that is a huge problem.

Conservatives also need to understand that children who are brought here with their families are a special case. Those that grow up to stay out of trouble and go to college or serve in the military do not need to be deported. These are people that will help our society and we should want to keep them here. Those who oppose the DREAM Act, a proposed law that would provide those types of people a path to citizenship, just come across as spiteful. American should not be in the business of trying to kick the superstars of the world out of our country.

Nothing will change unless we amend our legal immigration system to make sense. Can Democrats quit demagoguing the issue? Can conservatives understand that "border security first" will not actually accomplish their stated objective? I'm not optimistic, but at least we can take comfort in the fact that a solution exists here once our leaders decide to do the right thing.

State of the Day - Alabama

2011-05-12T10:39:00.000-04:00

Alabama’s politics have forever been a battle between the Appalachian tinged northern part of the state and the stereotypical Deep South. Like all the states of the old Confederacy, it was long Democratic, though often divided between conservatives and economic populists. The Civil Rights movement of the 1960’s completely reoriented Alabama politics. George Wallace was the stalwart conservative fighting that movement, and he kept Alabama Democratic through the 1980’s as he remained the dominant figure. Alabama has moved on from Wallace and commitment to civil rights and racial equality is now an accepted norm across the political spectrum. Not coincidentally, Alabama has been one of the best states in economic growth over the past two decades, especially in the area of non-unionized auto manufacturing. Blacks vote overwhelmingly Democrat, and in federal races whites votes overwhelmingly Republican, though the Democrats do remain very competitive in state and local races. Alabama Democrats can win when they do well among the traditionally populist, though socially conservative white voters in North Alabama. Still, Alabama is on balance a very Republican state.

As such, 2010 was a disaster for Alabama Democrats. They didn't come close to winning the Governor's Mansion or Richard Shelby's Senate seat. They lost two conservative House seats they had won in 2008 (one on a party switch earlier in the cycle). The Republican wave erased the last vestiges of the old Democratic majority, as Republicans won control of the Legislature for the first time since Reconstruction.

Republicans will therefore control redistricting. The GOP controls all but one black majority district, so they should basically keep the status quo adjusting for equal population. The Democratic Seventh District has lost population, so if anything the Republican districts will become even more so.

President – 9 Electoral Votes

Alabama will stay Republican even in the most Democratic landslides.

Alabama has a Super Tuesday primary, which is likely to vote for a more socially conservative candidate over a moderate or economically oriented conservative. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

Governor – Robert Bentley (R)

Democrats were optimistic that conservative Rep. Artur Davis could win this, but he lost the primary to the more liberal Agriculture Commissioner Ron Sparks. It probably didn't matter in a disaster like 2010. Republican Bentley won 58%-42% and should have a pretty large margin of error in this Republican state. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

Senior Senator – Richard Shelby (R)

Shelby used to be a Democrat in what seems like another time. He still has support from trial lawyers, which means that Democrats cannot even form a base of a respectable campaign. Shelby just won a fifth term 65%-35%. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

Junior Senator – Jeff Sessions (R)

Sessions has perhaps the most conservative voting record in the Senate, and as ranking Republican on the Judiciary Committee, serves as a lightning rod for Democratic criticism. This has no effect in Alabama. Sessions easily checked competent Democratic opponents in his first two races, and delivered a smackdown to an overwhelmed opponent in 2008. Barring a “wide stance” level meltdown or a population exchange with Massachusetts, Sessions should have this seat for as long as he wants it. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 1 – Jo Bonner (R)

Bonner easily checked a weak primary challenge and had no Democratic opposition in this safe Republican district. The Mobile based district needs to shed only 6,000 people and should remain basically unchanged. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 2 – Martha Roby (R)

Perhaps no district in the country represented the disaster the GOP suffered in 2008 than this one. This Southeast Alabama seat is an utterly Republican district which gave John McCain 63%. Yet, the Democrats nominated a well known and conservative candidate, Bobby Bright, who took this seat by less than 2,000 votes. Bright couldn't have advertised his conservatism and dislike of Nancy Pelosi any louder, but it was impossible for him to win in 2010. He lost to Republican Roby 51%-49%. The district needs to pick up 8,000 people, but redistricters might try to shift some Democrats to the Seventh District to shore up Roby. This would require very convoluted lines, however. LIKELY REPUBLICAN.

House 3 – Mike Rogers (R)

This East Alabama seat is a more reasonable district for Democrats than the previous two, and Rogers has seen some opposition. He received only 53% two years ago, but got a pass IN 2010. He still managed to win by a less than impressive 59-41, so he remains an underaciever. He needs to pick up about 7,000 people and is surrounded by Republican territory. LIKELY REPUBLICAN.

House 4 – Robert Aderholt (R)

This slice of North Alabamais one of the safest Republican seats in the country, and Aderholt was sensibly unopposed. He heeds to add about 12,000 people in redistricting, which will come from even more Republican territory. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 5 – Mo Brooks (R)

The Republicans had actually never won the election for this northern Alabama seat, which should be a Republican lock, until this year. Veteran Democratic conservative Bud Cramer held it for years, and in 2008 the Democratic wave allowed another local conservative Democrat Parker Griffith, to eek out a win. Griffith found the national Democratic Party too liberal for his tastes (or electoral prospects) and switched parties in late 2009. Nobody let the local GOP in on the welcoming party, and he found himself on the wrong end of a primary pounding from Madison County Commissioner Brooks, who easily won the seat 58%-42% in November. Now that this seat has taken the plunge it isn't going blue again anytime soon. The seat needs to shed 15,000 people. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 6 – Spencer Bachus (R)

This may be the most Republican district in the nation. Bachus easily beat back a primary challenge. He had no Democratic opponent, probably because the party couldn’t find a member in the district. The Suburban Birmingham seat needs to lose 53,000 people, which can be used to shore up other Republicans. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 7 – Terri Sewell (D)

Former Rep. Artur Davis's run for Governor opened up a scramble in the Democratic primary for this African-American majority district. Sewell won the Democratic nomination, and thus the seat, in the Democratic primary runoff. The seat needs to pick up 50,000 people, but a black majority district will remain for Sewell.

GOP White House Field Not Historically Weak

2011-05-11T20:38:00.000-04:00

With the President scuffling, Democrats are keying to the idea that the field of Republican challengers is historically weak to the point of unelectable (the talking point of the moment seems to be that the GOP field is the "bar scene from Star Wars"). We have pointed out before that the Republicans currently have four potential candidates that look electable at this time (Mitch Daniels, Jon Huntsman, Tim Pawlenty, and Mitt Romney), and the party is likely to nominate one of them.

Yes, there are a large number of people running or who might run that have no chance at winning and simply don't make believable candidates. This group includes Newt Gingrich, Sarah Palin, Michele Bachmann, Rick Santorum, Donald Trump, Herman Cain, Buddy Roemer, Ron Paul, and Gary Johnson. However, this is totally normal. In modern times we see a large number of useless candidates and actually, this GOP field has an unusually large number of potentially decent candidates.

Let's look at the last five elections (1992 onward) and look at the people who took steps to run for the nomination, even if they dropped out before Iowa. I will exclude the races that included an incumbent President or Vice President (GOP: 1992, 2004, Dems: 1996, 2000). You will see that there is nothing odd about the current GOP field.

1992

Democrats

Jerry Brown
Bill Clinton
Tom Harkin
Bob Kerrey
Eugene McCarthy
Paul Tsongas
Douglas Wilder

This field looks better in retrospect, but at the time it seemed very weak. McCarthy was obviously a joke by this point, and Wilder was too out of step with his party to be serious. Jerry Brown also entered this race as washed up comic relief, though he did rehabilitate himself somewhat with a persistent, if hopeless campaign. Tsongas was a one term former Senator with serious health problems. Clinton entered the race as a Governor of a small state with a bimbo problem. Harkin and Kerrey were solid candidates on paper who never gained traction.

Three out of the seven were obviously hopeless. We are not examining the GOP side, but it bears noting that President Bush was challenged by the multi-generational, political spectrum bridging team of perennial hopeless candidates, Pat Buchanan and Harold Stassen.

1996

Republicans

Lamar Alexander
Pat Buchanan
Bob Dole
Bob Dornan
Steve Forbes
Phil Gramm
Alan Keyes
Richard Lugar
Arlen Specter
Pete Wilson

Dornan and Keyes were complete jokes. Buchanan had a talent for stirring up New Hampshirites but was obviously not going to be nominated or elected. Lugar, Specter, and Wilson had nice resumes but were obviously not going to get the nomination. Forbes was rich but had nothing else going for him. Gramm flopped but was taken seriously at the time, even though I'm not sure he would ever have been electable in November. Only Alexander and Dole really presented viable options. Being generous to Gramm, six of these nine guys were Star Wars bar material.

Speaking of Star Wars bar characters, President Clinton was challenged by Lyndon LaRouche in the Democratic primaries.

2000

Republicans

Lamar Alexander
Pat Buchanan
George W. Bush
Elizabeth Dole
Steve Forbes
Orrin Hatch
John Kasich
Alan Keyes
John McCain
Dan Quayle
Bob Smith

Right off the bat, we could dismiss Buchanan, Keyes, Quayle (yes, I know he was once Vice President, so what?), and Smith. Forbes was pretty obviously not viable this time. Alexander, Hatch, and Kasich were reasonable candidates, but quite obviously never had a real chance. Dole was actually highly touted, but in a preview of things to come completely flopped. At minimum five of these eleven never had a chance. If you put Alexander, Hatch, and Kasich in that category, eight of the eleven were hopeless.

Vice President Al Gore faced an abortive challenge from Minnesota Senator Paul Wellstone, who would not have been a serious candidate either. He was challenged by Bill Bradley, who did have some chance.

2004

Democrats

Carol Moseley Braun
Wesley Clark
Howard Dean
John Edwards
Richard Gephardt
Bob Graham
John Kerry
Dennis Kucinich
Joe Lieberman
Al Sharpton

I could be snarky and say that none of these people, including John Kerry, was electable. Kucinich, Moseley Braun, and Sharpton were never serious candidates. Lieberman was never going to get the nomination. Graham was reasonable but just never got going. Clark and Dean were hopeless, but both were taken seriously far into the process so we'll take them seriously. Again, we see five of the ten candidates who had no chance.

2008

Democrats

Evan Bayh
Joe Biden
Hillary Rodham Clinton
Christopher Dodd
John Edwards
Mike Gravel
Dennis Kucinich
Barack Obama
Bill Richardson
Tom Vilsack

Gravel and Kucinich were ridiculous. Bayh and Vilsack had so little support they were gone by this time four years ago, and nobody ever thought Biden, Richardson, or Dodd were actual contenders. If we give John Edwards the benefit of the doubt since the extent of his psychopathy was not known during his active campaign, at most three of these were reasonable candidates.

Republicans

Sam Brownback
Jim Gilmore
Rudy Giuliani
Mike Huckabee
Duncan Hunter
Alan Keyes
John McCain
Ron Paul
Mitt Romney
Tom Tancredo
Fred Thompson
Tommy Thompson

Five of these twelve, Gilmore, Hunter, Keyes, Paul, and Tancredo were never any more than gadflies. Brownback and Tommy Thompson were considered extreme long shots when they entered. You could classify Giuliani and Fred Thompson either way. Both were taken seriously when they got in but shot themselves in the foot. At minimum, seven of these candidates were dead on arrival.

So, what we see is that it is perfectly normal for about half of the field at the beginning to be completely hopeless. It is actually somewhat abnormal for there to be four reasonable candidates in the field. Contrary to popular opinion, the GOP is in good shape.

Texas Provides Clues To How Budget Debate Will Play Out

2011-05-11T09:18:00.003-04:00

Restoring fiscal sanity seems to be the watchword in Washington right now, at least according to everybody's rhetoric. Substantively, it looks like more business as usual. President Obama is talking about the need for budget cuts and shared sacrifice, but is offering paltry reductions in the growth of spending and proposing that only 5% of the population provide the needed revenue. The House Budget Chairman, Rep. Paul Ryan (R-WI), offered a spending plan that makes hard spending reductions, particularly in the area of Medicare, but the wider GOP seems scared to defend this plan in the face of the predictable political opposition. We seem stuck in the same old scenario, where everybody wants to cut spending but nobody wants to make actual cuts. This begs the question, is a plan of real fiscal austerity in fact political suicide?

An answer to this question might come from Texas. Texas has been a very Republican state for at least a decade, during which time extremely conservative candidates have been winning more and more primaries. Until 2010, the Democrats were able to maintain some semblance in their last redoubt of the State House. They lost control of the chamber in 2003 but had cut the Republican majority to 76-74 by 2009, enough to put a check on most uberconservative legislation. The House Dems went down with Obama in 2010, however, and the Republicans picked up a 101-49 majority. This is enough to steamroll through anything without any input from Democrats, and indeed the Republicans have resorted to suspending the rules in order to overcome Democratic parliamentary tactics. The end result of more Republicans and a more conservative GOP is a virtual carte blanche for the most conservative elements of the Texas Republican Party.

The 2010 legislative landslide was accompanied by the re-election of Governor Rick Perry running on an agenda not merely conservative, but geared almost exclusively to the activist wing of his own party. Perry and Republican legislators have continued this red meat emphasis through the current legislative session, delivering "emergency" legislation on Voter ID, "sanctuary cities", eminent domain, tort reform, sonogram requirements for abortions, and resolutions calling on the federal government to balance its budget (insert joke about the pot and kettle). The most important test of the Texas GOP agenda concerns the budget, where the party is committed to closing a biennial shortfall estimated from between $18 and $27 billion without raising taxes and without using the state's nearly $10 billion Rainy Day Fund.

With the economic slowdown depressing sales tax revenue and federal support being far less than it was in 2009, Republican pledges imply a budget for 2012-2013 18%-20% less than the state's 2010-2011 budget. Even for the hardest core of conservatives, this hurts. This is doubly true because Texas has some of the least generous social welfare programs in the nation and has the lowest amount of per capita state spending in the nation. In other words, there aren't really any easy choices.

When faced with these unpalatable choices, many in the Republican Party have flinched. The House did indeed pass such a budget, and it included massive cuts in funding for almost everything, particularly education, Medicaid, and child protective services. The Senate took a long time to pass a budget. That body required an obscure parliamentary maneuver to pass it over Democratic objections, but even the Republicans in the Senate were appalled at some of the cuts. They had to find almost $4 billion worth of "non-tax" revenue such as making one day delays in payments and acceleration of tax revenues at the end of the fiscal period. Even now, it remains a serious question whether the two houses can agree on a budget in the seventeen days left in the regular session. It is clear by now that even many on the right do not want to stand by this budget due to the severe nature of the cuts.

Regardless, a budget will eventually pass. it will be harsh and will have an impact on the lives of every Texan. Whatever its effects, the Republicans will have to live with it. Politically, Texas will prove an interesting test case on how such a scorched earth approach to the budget plays politically. Democrats will not make much headway in Texas in 2012 thanks to redistricting and the unpopularity of their national ticket. However, the Republican primaries will bear watching. If candidates favoring a more balanced approach to budgeting succeed in the 2012 GOP legislative primaries, that will be a good indication that the hardcore approach does not sell. Governor Perry has suggested he will run for a fourth full term as Governor in 2014. If he faces stiff challenges and Democrats are making legislative gains by then that would be a further indication the approach is politically toxic.

Of course, if the far right of the Republican Party continues to win elections this would indicate the opposite, that extreme austerity budgets will work politically, even on the national level. Since nobody on the national level is going too far out on a limb, Texas is the best test case we have. Anybody interested in the fiscal future of the United States should pay attention.

State of the Race - 5/7/11

2011-05-09T15:12:00.006-04:00

In most parliamentary democracies, the current government has the option of calling an election at a time of its choosing. If we had such a system, President Obama would undoubtedly be calling an election now after the operation that killed Osama bin Laden. His approval rating shot up to 52%, moving Obama from decisive loser to narrow winner in our hypothetical race. It is disconcerting for him, however, that such big news only pushes his head to barely above water. This is a very bad sign for him when the actual election occurs in eighteen months.

This week we update our look at the field for the 2012 Republican Presidential nomination, deal with a Senate resignation and another announced House retirement. We also begin to factor in states that have approved actual maps for the 2012 House elections.

Off to the races!

President

Here is our weekly look at the field for the Republican nomination. There is some shifting among the long shots, particularly with Jon Huntsman threatening to break into the contenders category. For now, however, it remains a three horse race.

The Contenders

1. Mitt Romney of Massachusetts
2. Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota
3. Governor Mitch Daniels of Indiana

Dark Horses

4. Jon Huntsman of Utah
5. Mike Huckabee of Arkansas
6. Sarah Palin of Alaska
7. Donald Trump of New York
8. Representative Michele Bachmann of Minnesota
9. Newt Gingrich of Georgia
10. Representative Ron Paul of Texas
11. Herman Cain of Georgia
12. Governor Chris Christie of New Jersey
13. Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina
14. Representative Paul Ryan of Wisconsin

President Obama's approval ratings show a post-bin Laden jump of six points, which puts him from sure loser to probable winner if the election were held today.

These results now show a race to close to call, but with President Obama's re-election the most likely outcome with a 332-206 Electoral College victory. Potential outcomes range from a President Obama victory with 342 Electoral Votes to a Mitt Romney victory with 287 Electoral Votes. The most likely outcome shows a virtual repeat of 2008, except that Indiana and North Carolina are projected to go Republican. The closest states in the current projection are Florida and Virginia

Safe Obama (84)
DC
Hawaii
Illinois
Maryland
Massachusetts
New York
Rhode Island
Vermont

Likely Obama (81)
California
Connecticut
Delaware
Maine
Washington

Lean Obama (86)
Michigan
Minnesota
New Hampshire
New Jersey
New Mexico
Oregon
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin

Toss Up Obama (81)
Colorado
Florida
Iowa
Nevada
Ohio
Virginia

Toss Up Romney (10)
Missouri

Lean Romney (70)
Arizona
Georgia
Indiana
Montana
North Carolina
South Carolina
West Virginia

Likely Romney (83)
Arkansas
Kentucky
Louisiana
Mississippi
North Dakota
South Dakota
Tennessee
Texas

Safe Romney (43)
Alabama
Alaska
Idaho
Kansas
Nebraska
Oklahoma
Utah
Wyoming

Popular Vote: Pres. Obama 51.4%, Romney 48.6%
Electoral Vote: Pres. Obama 332, Romney 206

Governors

Fourteen gubernatorial contests will take place over the next two years. Kentucky, Louisiana, and Mississippi will hold contests in 2011. The states listed below will hold elections in 2012. New Hampshire and Vermont have two year terms for its Governor, so the Granite and Green Mountain States will have a 2012 contest despite just conducting an election. The West Virginia Supreme Court declared that there must be a special election in October to fill the final year of the unexpired term of Joe Manchin. A regularly scheduled election will follow in 2012. We will list the special election until its completion, at which time it will be replaced by the regular election.

Republicans are assured at least a split of Governor's Mansions after 2012, as they lead 25-11 in races not coming up for election in the next two years. Right now we predict the Republicans to gain between a range of two and six Govenrnor's Mansions, with the most likely outcome being four.

Safe Democrat (1)
Delaware (Jack Markell)

Likely Democrat (0)

Lean Democrat (2)
Vermont (Peter Shumlin)
Washington (Christine Gregoire)

Toss Up Democrat (2)
Missouri (Jay Nixon)
New Hampshire (John Lynch)

Toss Up Republican (2)
Kentucky (Steven Beshear)
North Carolina (Bev Perdue)

Lean Republican (1)
Indiana (Mitch Daniels retiring)
West Virginia special (Earl Ray Tomblin)

Likely Republican (2)
Louisiana (Bobby Jindal)
Montana (Brian Schweitzer retiring)

Safe Republican (3)
Mississippi (Haley Barbour retiring)
North Dakota (Jack Dalrymple)
Utah (Gary Herbert)

Republicans: 35
Democrats: 15

Senate

Nevada Republican John Ensign resigned this week and was replaced by Dean Heller, formerly the Second District Congressman. Heller was already set to run for the seat, presumably against First District Rep. Shelley Berkley. A year plus of incumbency will probably help Heller, but not enough for me to move the seat off of "Tossup Democrat".

Democrats will be defending the seats they won in the big Democratic year of 2006, so they start on the defensive. Republicans lead the seats not up for election 37-30. We project a gain of three Republican seats, which would split the Senate in half with control being decided by the new Vice President. We see a range of anywhere from a push to a seven seat Republican pickup. Note this is basically in a neutral climate, so the advantage shown is a Republican structural advantage based on the cycle of seats up for election. There are quite a few Democratic seats that could be very difficult for them if they continue to struggle with public opinion, and that shows up in the large number of seats in the "Lean Democrat" columnn. In other words, if the climate is as toxic as it was in 2010 the Republicans would probably win all of those "Lean Democratic" seats and pick up double digit seats.

Safe Democrat (4)
Delaware (Tom Carper)
Hawaii (Daniel Akaka retiring)
New York (Kirsten Gillibrand)
Vermont (Bernie Sanders)

Likely Democrat (5)
California (Dianne Feinstein)
Connecticut (Joe Lieberman retiring)
Maryland (Ben Cardin)
Rhode Island (Sheldon Whitehouse)
Wisconsin (Herb Kohl)

Lean Democrat (7)
Florida (Bill Nelson)
Massachusetts (Scott Brown)
Michigan (Debbie Stabenow)
Minnesota (Amy Klobuchar)
New Jersey (Robert Menendez)
Pennsylvania (Robert Casey, Jr.)
Washington (Maria Cantwell)

Toss Up Democrat (4)
Nebraska (Ben Nelson)
Nevada (Dean Heller)
New Mexico (Jeff Bingaman retiring)
Ohio (Sherrod Brown)

Toss Up Republican (3)
Missouri (Claire McCaskill)
Virginia (Jim Webb retiring)
West Virginia (Joe Manchin)

Lean Republican (4)
Arizona (Jon Kyl retiring)
Mississippi (Roger Wicker)
Montana (Jon Tester)
Tennessee (Bob Corker)

Likely Republican (1)
Maine (Olympia Snowe)

Safe Republican (5)
Indiana (Richard Lugar)
North Dakota (Kent Conrad retiring)
Texas (Kay Bailey Hutchison retiring)
Utah (Orrin Hatch)
Wyoming (John Barrasso)

Democrats: 50
Republicans: 50

House

Two changes this week. First in Indiana, Sixth District Rep. Mike Pence announced he will run for Governor. His seat remains safely Republican. Secondly, Dean Heller has resigned from Nevada 2 to accept appointment to the Senate. This creates a special election for his seat in September. The seat leans Republican, but it bears watching because the election appears to be an open primary with a simple plurality needed to win. The state Republican Party is challenging this format in court. Such a format would greatly increase the number of possibilities that could occur and make the race difficult to predict.

Also, Arkansas, Iowa, Louisiana, and Missouri have completed redistricting. I admit I have only had time to review the map for Arkansas. That state's ratings reflect the new map, but the others remain based on my previous rough estimates. This will change as I get more time.

Here's how I handle redistricting. To simplify things, I am going to refer to districts by number as if they were constant. This will lead to reported "pickups" for parties that are just district renumberings, but I think doing it this way will help keep things straight. For example, New Jersey is on track to lose a seat. We will "eliminate" the highest numbered district in the state, NJ-13 held by Albio Sires. However, Sires will almost certainly have a district he can win, it will just have a different number. For argument's sake, let's say that Leonard Lance, a Republican currently representing the Seventh District, is effectively drawn out when his district is eliminated and parceled out among other districts, and Sires's district is renamed the Seventh. We will say that Sires's seat was eliminated but that the Democrats picked up the Seventh District. This will even out after we factor for all the states.

Under this format, the following districts will be eliminated.

IL-19 (John Shimkus)
IA-5 (Steve King)
LA-7 (Charles Boustany)
MA-10 (Bill Keating)
MI-15 (John Dingell)
MO-9 (Blaine Leutkemeyer)
NJ-13 (Albio Sires)
NY-28 (Louise Slaughter)
NY-29 (Tom Reed)
OH-17 (Tim Ryan)
OH-18 (Bob Gibbs)
PA-19 (Todd Platts)

That is seven Republicans and four Democrats. Expect most of these members to show up in other districts come 2013. These seats will be replaced by eleven new seats in other states. Those will be listed in italics. To help keep this all straight, we are going to break with tradition and list every seat, even in safe districts.

This gives the Republicans a four seat pickup as a base scenario, primarily due to redistricting. We envision a range, depending on the climate, of anywhere between a 38 seat Democratic pickup and a 41 seat Republican pickup. There are about 70 seats that form the potential battlefield for the 2012 elections.

Safe Democrat (102)
AL-7 (Terri Sewell)
AZ-4 (Ed Pastor)
CA-1 (Mike Thompson)
CA-5 (Doris Matsui)
CA-6 (Lynn Woolsey)
CA-7 (George Miller)
CA-8 (Nancy Pelosi)
CA-9 (Barbara Lee)
CA-10 (John Garamendi)
CA-12 (Jackie Speier)
CA-13 (Pete Stark)
CA-14 (Anna Eshoo)
CA-15 (Mike Honda)
CA-16 (Zoe Lofgren)
CA-17 (Sam Farr)
CA-27 (Brad Sherman)
CA-28 (Howard Berman)
CA-29 (Adam Schiff)
CA-30 (Henry Waxman)
CA-31 (Xavier Becerra)
CA-32 (Judy Chu)
CA-33 (Karen Bass)
CA-34 (Lucille Roybal-Allard)
CA-35 (Maxine Waters)
CA-36 special (VACANT)
CA-37 (Laura Richardson)
CA-38 (Grace Napolitano)
CA-39 (Linda Sanchez)
CA-43 (Joe Baca)
CA-53 (Susan Davis)
CO-1 (Diana DeGette)
CT-1 (John Larson)
CT-3 (Rosa DeLauro)
FL-3 (Corrine Brown)
FL-11 (Kathy Castor)
FL-17 (Frederica Wilson)
FL-19 (Ted Deutch)
FL-20 (Debbie Wasserman Schultz)
FL-23 (Alcee Hastings)
GA-4 (Hank Johnson)
GA-5 (John Lewis)
GA-13 (David Scott)
HI-2 (Mazie Hirono)
IL-1 (Bobby Rush)
IL-2 (Jesse Jackson, Jr.)
IL-3 (Dan Lipinski)
IL-4 (Luis Gutierrez)
IL-5 (Mike Quigley)
IL-7 (Danny Davis)
IL-9 (Jan Schakowsky)
IN-7 (Andre Carson)
LA-2 (Cedric Richmond)
MD-2 (Dutch Ruppersberger)
MD-4 (Donna Edwards)
MD-5 (Steny Hoyer)
MD-7 (Elijah Cummings)
MD-8 (Chris Van Hollen)
MA-1 (John Olver)
MA-7 (Edward Markey)
MA-8 (Michael Capuano)
MA-9 (Stephen Lynch)
MI-12 (Sander Levin)
MI-13 (Hansen Clarke)
MI-14 (John Conyers)
MN-5 (Keith Ellison)
MS-2 (Bennie Thompson)
MO-1 (William Lacy Clay)
NV-1 (Shelley Berkley retiring)
NJ-1 (Robert Andrews)
NJ-8 (Bill Pascrell)
NJ-9 (Steven Rothman)
NJ-10 (Donald Payne)
NY-5 (Gary Ackerman)
NY-6 (Gregory Meeks)
NY-7 (Joseph Crowley)
NY-8 (Jerrold Nadler)
NY-10 (Edolphus Towns)
NY-11 (Yvette Clark)
NY-12 (Nydia Velazquez)
NY-14 (Carolyn Maloney)
NY-15 (Charles Rangel)
NY-16 (Jose Serrano)
NY-17 (Eliot Engel)
NY-18 (Nita Lowey)
NC-12 (Melvin Watt)
OH-11 (Marcia Fudge)
OR-3 (Earl Blumenauer)
PA-1 (Robert Brady)
PA-2 (Chaka Fattah)
SC-6 (James Clyburn)
TN-9 (Steve Cohen)
TX-9 (Al Green)
TX-18 (Sheila Jackson Lee)
TX-20 (Charles Gonzalez)
TX-29 (Gene Green)
TX-30 (Eddie Bernice Johnson)
VT-AL (Peter Welch)
VA-3 (Bobby Scott)
VA-8 (Jim Moran)
WA-7 (Jim McDermott)
WI-2 (Tammy Baldwin)
WI-4 (Gwen Moore)

Likely Democrat (27)
CA-18 (Dennis Cardoza)
CA-23 (Lois Capps)
CA-51 (Bob Filner)
CO-2 (Jared Polis)
CT-2 (Joe Courtney)
DE-AL (John Carney)
HI-1 (Colleeen Hanabusa)
IL-12 (Jerry Costello)
IN-1 (Peter Visclosky)
ME-1 (Chellie Pingree)
MD-3 (John Sarbanes)
MA-2 (Richard Neal)
MA-3 (Jim McGovern)
MA-6 (John Tierney)
MN-4 (Betty McCollum)
NM-3 (Ben Ray Lujan)
NY-9 (Anthony Weiner)
NY-21 (Paul Tonko)
NY-27 (Brian Higgins)
NC-1 (G.K. Butterfield)
NC-4 (David Price)
OH-9 (Marcy Kaptur)
RI-1 (David Cicilline)
RI-2 (Jim Langevin)
TX-16 (Silvestre Reyes)
WA-1 (Jay Inslee)
WA-6 (Norm Dicks)

Lean Democrat (22)
AR-4 (Mike Ross)
GA-12 (John Barrow)
KY-3 (John Yarmuth)
ME-2 (Michael Michaud)
MA-4 (Barney Frank)
MA-5 (Niki Tsongas)
MN-7 (Collin Peterson)
MO-5 (Emanuel Cleaver)
NJ-6 (Dave Pallone)
NM-1 (Martin Heinrich retiring)
NY-2 (Steve Israel)
NY-4 (Carolyn McCarthy)
NC-13 (Brad Miller)
OH-13 (Betty Sutton)
OR-1 (David Wu)
PA-13 (Allyson Schwartz)
PA-14 (Mike Doyle)
PA-17 (Tim Holden)
TN-5 (Jim Cooper)
TX-15 (Ruben Hinojosa)
TX-28 (Henry Cuellar)
WA-9 (Adam Smith)
WV-3 (Nick Rahall)

Toss Up Democrat (37)
AZ-7 (Raul Grijalva)
CA-20 (Jim Costa)
CA-47 (Loretta Sanchez)
CO-7 (Ed Perlmutter)
CT-4 (Jim Himes)
CT-5 (Chris Murphy retiring)
GA-2 (Sanford Bishop)
IL-10 (Robert Dold)
IA-1 (Bruce Braley)
IA-2 (Dave Loebsack)
IA-3 (Leonard Boswell)
MI-5 (Dale Kildee)
MI-9 (Gary Peters)
MN-1 (Tim Walz)
MO-3 (Russ Carnahan)
MN-8 (Chip Cravaack)
NV-3 (Joe Heck)
NV-4 (NEW)
NH-2 (Charlie Bass)
NJ-12 (Rush Holt)
NY-1 (Tim Bishop)
NY-22 (Maurice Hinchey)
NY-25 (Ann Marie Buerkle)
NC-7 (Mike McIntyre)
NC-8 (Larry Kissell)
NC-11 (Heath Shuler)
OH-10 (Dennis Kucinich)
OK-2 (Dan Boren)
OR-4 (Peter DeFazio)
OR-5 (Kurt Schrader)
PA-12 (Mark Critz)
TX-25 (Lloyd Doggett)
VA-11 (Gerald Connolly)
WA-2 (Rick Larsen)
WA-10 (NEW)
WI-3 (Ron Kind)
WI-7 (Sean Duffy)

Toss Up Republican (43)
AZ-1 (Paul Gosar)
AZ-5 (David Schweikert)
AZ-8 (Gabrielle Gifffords)
CA-3 (Dan Lungren)
CA-11 (Jerry McNerney)
CA-26 (David Dreier)
CA-45 (Mary Bono Mack)
CO-3 (Scott Tipton)
FL-12 (Dennis Ross)
FL-22 (Allen West)
IL-8 (Joe Walsh)
IL-14 (Randy Hultgren)
IL-17 (Bobby Schilling)
IN-2 (Joe Donnelly)
KY-6 (Ben Chandler)
MI-1 (Dan Benishek)
MI-7 (Tim Walberg)
MN-6 (Michele Bachmann)
NH-1 (Frank Guinta)
NJ-3 (Jon Runyan)
NY-13 (Mike Grimm)
NY-19 (Nan Hayworth)
NY-20 (Christopher Gibson)
NY-23 (Bill Owens)
NY-24 (Richard Hanna)
NC-2 (Renee Ellmers)
OH-1 (Steve Chabot)
OH-6 (Bill Johnson)
OH-15 (Steve Stivers)
OH-16 (Jim Renacci)
PA-4 (Jason Altmire)
PA-7 (Patrick Meehan)
PA-8 (Michael Fitzpatrick)
PA-11 (Lou Barletta)
PA-15 (Charlie Dent)
SD-AL (Kristi Noem)
TX-23 (Quico Canseco)
TX-27 (Blake Farenthold)
UT-2 (Jim Matheson)
VA-5 (Robert Hurt)
WA-3 (Jaime Herrera)
WA-8 (Dave Reichert)
WI-8 (Reid Ribble)

Lean Republican (25)
AZ-3 (Ben Quayle)
AR-1 (Rick Crawford)
AR-2 (Tim Griffin)
CA-44 (Ken Calvert)
CA-50 (Brian Bilbray)
CO-4 (Cory Gardner)
FL-2 (Steve Southerland)
FL-8 (Daniel Webster)
FL-25 (David Rivera)
GA-8 (Austin Scott)
IL-11 (Adam Kinzinger)
IN-9 (Todd Young)
KS-3 (Kevin Yoder)
MN-3 (Erik Paulsen)
NM-2 (Steve Pearce)
NY-26 special (VACANT)
NV-2 special (VACANT)
PA-3 (Mike Kelly)
PA-6 (Jim Gerlach)
PA-10 (Thomas Marino)
SC-2 (Joe Wilson)
SC-5 (Mick Mulvaney)
VA-2 (Scott Rigell)
VA-9 (Morgan Griffith)
WV-1 (David McKinley)

Likely Republican (20)
AL-2 (Martha Roby)
AL-3 (Mike Rogers)
CA-2 (Wally Herger)
CA-24 (Elton Gallegly)
CA-48 (John Campbell)
FL-24 (Sandy Adams)
FL-26 (NEW)
ID-1 (Raul Labrador)
IN-8 (Larry Bucshon)
MD-1 (Andy Harris)
MI-3 (Justin Amash)
MI-11 (Thaddeus McCotter)
MS-1 (Alan Nunnelee)
MO-4 (Vicky Hartzler)
MT-AL (Denny Rehberg retiring)
NJ-7 (Leonard Lance)
ND-AL (Rick Berg)
OH-12 (Pat Tiberi)
TN-8 (Stephen Fincher)
VA-7 (Eric Cantor)

Safe Republican (158)
AL-1 (Jo Bonner)
AL-4 (Robert Aderholt)
AL-5 (Mo Brooks)
AL-6 (Spencer Bachus)
AK-AL (Don Young)
AZ-2 (Trent Franks)
AZ-6 (Jeff Flake retiring)
AZ-9 (NEW)
AR-3 (Steve Womack)
CA-4 (Tom McClintock)
CA-19 (Jeff Denham)
CA-21 (Devin Nunes)
CA-22 (Kevin McCarthy)
CA-25 (Buck McKeon)
CA-40 (Ed Royce)
CA-41 (Jerry Lewis)
CA-42 (Gary Miller)
CA-46 (Dana Rohrabacher)
CA-49 (Darrell Issa)
CA-52 (Duncan D. Hunter)
CO-5 (Doug Lamborn)
CO-6 (Mike Coffman)
FL-1 (Jeff Miller)
FL-4 (Ander Crenshaw)
FL-5 (Richard Nugent)
FL-6 (Cliff Stearns)
FL-7 (John Mica)
FL-9 (Gus Bilirakis)
FL-10 (Bill Young)
FL-13 (Vern Buchanan)
FL-14 (Connie Mack)
FL-15 (Bill Posey)
FL-16 (Tom Rooney)
FL-18 (Ileana Ros-Lehtinen)
FL-21 (Mario Diaz-Balart)
FL-27 (NEW)
GA-1 (Jack Kingston)
GA-3 (Lynn Westmoreland)
GA-6 (Tom Price)
GA-7 (Rob Woodall)
GA-9 (Tom Graves)
GA-10 (Paul Broun)
GA-11 (Phil Gingrey)
GA-14 (NEW)
ID-2 (Mike Simpson)
IL-6 (Peter Roskam)
IL-13 (Judy Biggert)
IL-15 (Tim Johnson)
IL-16 (Don Manzullo)
IL-18 (Aaron Schock)
IN-3 (Marlin Stutzman)
IN-4 (Todd Rokita)
IN-5 (Dan Burton)
IN-6 (Mike Pence retiring)
IA-4 (Tom Latham)
KS-1 (Tim Huelskamp)
KS-2 (Lynn Jenkins)
KS-4 (Mike Pompeo)
KY-1 (Ed Whitfield)
KY-2 (Brett Guthrie)
KY-4 (Geoff Davis)
KY-5 (Harold Rogers)
LA-1 (Steve Scalise)
LA-3 (Jeff Landry)
LA-4 (John Fleming)
LA-5 (Rodney Alexander)
LA-6 (Bill Cassidy)
MD-6 (Roscoe Bartlett)
MI-2 (Bill Huizenga)
MI-4 (Dave Camp)
MI-6 (Fred Upton)
MI-8 (Mike Rogers)
MI-10 (Candice Miller)
MN-2 (John Kline)
MS-3 (Gregg Harper)
MS-4 (Steven Palazzo)
MO-2 (Todd Akin)
MO-6 (Sam Graves)
MO-7 (Billy Long)
MO-8 (Jo Ann Emerson)
NE-1 (Jeff Fortenberry)
NE-2 (Lee Terry)
NE-3 (Adrian Smith)
NJ-2 (Frank LoBiondo)
NJ-4 (Chris Smith)
NJ-5 (Scott Garrett)
NJ-11 (Rodney Frelinghuysen)
NY-3 (Peter King)
NC-3 (Walter Jones)
NC-5 (Virginia Foxx)
NC-6 (Howard Coble)
NC-9 (Sue Myrick)
NC-10 (Patrick McHenry)
OH-2 (Jean Schmidt)
OH-3 (Mike Turner)
OH-4 (Jim Jordan)
OH-5 (Bob Latta)
OH-7 (Steve Austria)
OH-8 (John Boehner)
OH-14 (Steven LaTourette)
OK-1 (John Sullivan)
OK-3 (Frank Lucas)
OK-4 (Tom Cole)
OK-5 (James Lankford)
OR-2 (Greg Walden)
PA-5 (Glenn Thompson)
PA-9 (Bill Shuster)
PA-16 (Joe Pitts)
PA-18 (Tim Murphy)
SC-1 (Tim Scott)
SC-3 (Jeff Duncan)
SC-4 (Trey Gowdy)
SC-7 (NEW)
TN-1 (Phil Roe)
TN-2 (John Duncan)
TN-3 (Chuck Fleischmann)
TN-4 (Scott DesJarlais)
TN-6 (Diane Black)
TN-7 (Marsha Blackburn)
TX-1 (Louie Gohmert)
TX-2 (Ted Poe)
TX-3 (Sam Johnson)
TX-4 (Ralph Hall)
TX-5 (Jeb Hensarling)
TX-6 (Joe Barton)
TX-7 (John Culberson)
TX-8 (Kevin Brady)
TX-10 (Michael McCaul)
TX-11 (Mike Conaway)
TX-12 (Kay Granger)
TX-13 (Mac Thornberry)
TX-14 (Ron Paul)
TX-17 (Bill Flores)
TX-19 (Randy Neugebauer)
TX-21 (Lamar Smith)
TX-22 (Pete Olson)
TX-24 (Kenny Marchant)
TX-26 (Michael Burgess)
TX-31 (John Carter)
TX-32 (Pete Sessions)
TX-33 (NEW)
TX-34 (NEW)
TX-35 (NEW)
TX-36 (NEW)
UT-1 (Rob Bishop)
UT-3 (Jason Chaffetz)
UT-4 (NEW)
VA-1 (Rob Wittman)
VA-4 (Randy Forbes)
VA-6 (Bob Goodlatte)
VA-10 (Frank Wolf)
WA-4 (Doc Hastings)
WA-5 (Cathy McMorris Rodgers)
WV-2 (Shelley Moore Capito)
WI-1 (Paul Ryan)
WI-5 (Jim Sensenbrenner)
WI-6 (Tom Petri)
WY-AL (Cynthia Lummis)

Republicans: 246
Democrats: 189

The 1% Can't Save the World

2011-05-09T10:54:00.003-04:00

Perhaps the most heartening thing about the death of Osama bin Laden has been the national recommitment to supporting and publicly honoring our troops. The Navy SEALs and especially the Team 6 that carried out the raid on bin Laden's compound have come in for particular praise. More broadly, we are reminded of the brave and dedicated people who have fought and continue to fight this conflict. As both Presidents Bush and Obama correctly noted, we don't often know who they are or even the particulars of what they do. But, we know they're there, we know they are making a difference, and we know they represent the best of our society. It is good to take time out to recognize not just our troops, but all personnel who work tirelessly to keep this nation safe and make the world a better place.

We have to make an active effort to do this because the conflicts of the last decade have been waged by a relatively small group of people. Most Americans are not engaged in the conflict, know anyone that is, or find themselves particularly affected. by it. We have not had to pay extra taxes or limit our consumption. I would venture to say that if we were unable to watch or read the news, most Americans would hardly know we've been at war. These wars are for us, but not of us.

This phenomenon is not limited to wars. Right now, we are looking at a budget catastrophe, but listening to our national leadership this is a problem that most people don't need to deal with. We can solve the problem without touching Social Security, Medicare, health care spending, government employee pay, educational assistance, etc. Just as President Bush told Americans we could fight two wars without any sort sacrifice whatsoever, President Obama says we can solve our fiscal problems by making the wealthiest 1% of the population pay for it. For the vast majority of Americans, our national leadership has and continues to say that we should not be asked to pitch in to solving our nation's problems.

This is a major failure of leadership. By trying to convince a majority of Americans that they do not have to sacrifice any interests in order to achieve improvement in the common good, our leaders do more harm than just making it less likely that we can actually do anything positive. It also alienates Americans away from the greater society by convincing them that they are useless and powerless. The increases cynicism and societal polarization.

In the election next year, I hope a Republican emerges who will stress that nobody is immune from tough public policy choices, and that everybody is going to have give something up to created effective solutions. I'm not optimistic, but I can dream.

State of the Day - West Virginia

2011-05-09T10:45:00.000-04:00

West Virginia has featured a coal centered economy for most of its history. The state became unionized and heavily Democratic, but has generally occupied the lower rungs of states in terms of economic statistics. It has diversified some in recent years, but its younger residents have moved elsewhere in large numbers and left the state with a very old population. Mining, particulary of the mountaintop variety, has remained very important and liberal environmentalists have helped turn West Virginia reliably Republican in Presidential elections. West Virginia remains Democratic on the state level, but Republicans have taken two of the three House seats and the state seems to be in the early states of a transition similar to those Southern states have been through over the past fifty years.

Democrats managed to keep the Senate seat of the late long time Senator Robert Byrd, only because the immense popularity of Democratic Governor Joe Manchin overcame the immense unpopularity of the national Democratic party. Manchin will have to toe a very difficult line to win reelection. Democrats have a decent chance to hold the Govenror's Mansion, but Republicans should easily keep the two House seats they hold. Redistricting will require only minor shifts in population from the Second District to the First and Third Districts. Democrats control the process but they have few options to try to help themselves.

President – 5 Electoral Votes

It seemed a fluke when George W. Bush won this state in 2000. It wasn’t. West Virginia is now a Republican state in presidential elections, and if any Democrat can break the string it will not be Barack Obama, who lost the 2008 primary 67%-26% even after it was obvious he would be the nominee. That late primary (May 8 for 2012) means the state probably won’t matter, but if it does it should be a good state for a culturally conservative candidate. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

Governor – Earl Ray Tomblin (D)

Tomblin became Governor in November after Joe Manchin resigned to take his seat in the Senate. Under West Virginia law, Tomblin remains State Senate President but there will a special election in October for the remaining fourteen months of the term, with primary elections coming up shortly on May 14.

Tomblin has serious primary from State Treasurer John Perdue, Secretary of State Natalie Tennant, and House Speaker Rick Thompson. A PPP poll released this week showed Tomlin leading 32-17-16-15. This could still go in multiple directions, but given that a mere plurality is needed to win Tomblin has a definite edge. Tomblin also has the strong backing of Manchin, which certainly will not hurt him.

Republicans have what appears to be a two horse contest between former Secretary of State Betty Ireland and businessman Bill Maloney. Ireland led 31-17 in the PPP poll and is one of the few West Virginia Republicans to win statewide election, so I'd have to give her an edge in the murky race.

West Virginia remains Democratic in state races, so one would think Tomblin (or whatever Democrat beats him) would have an edge. Indeed, early January polls showed Tomblin with a huge lead over Ireland. However, Tomblin has not really caught on here, as the PPP poll showed him with a 45% approval rating and a low 82% name recognition rating. West Virginia is mad at the national Democratic Party and based on the history of the long conversion of Southern states to the Republican Party, one would start to expect to see the Republican tide seep into high state offices. I really like the Republicans chances here. One factor that could prove a wildcard is potentially very low turnout for the oddly timed election. LEAN REPUBLICAN.

Senior Senator – Jay Rockefeller (D)

It is hard to see Rockefeller losing, but if 2014 happens to be a huge Republican year this could be a surprisingly interesting race. LEAN DEMOCRAT.

Junior Senator – Joe Manchin (D)

Manchin was a popular Governor when the Senate seat came open after Robert Byrd's death earlier this year. President Obama and the Democrats were so unpopular here that it almost did not matter. However, Manchin ran an energetic campaign highlighting his opposition to major parts of the Democratic agenda, at one point literally shooting a copy of the cap and trade bill. Combined with Republican missteps, this allowed Manchin to eek out an impressive 54%-43% victory.

It is hard to see national Democratic fortunes improving in West Virginia for 2012. Manchin has staked out rather independent political positions thus far and basically set himself up to be the next Zell Miller, supporting the Democrats on nothing. If he falls short of this, he will be in major trouble, particularly if Rep. Shelley Moore Capito runs. He is a prime candidate for a party switch closer to the 2012 election. TOSSUP REPUBLICAN.

House 1 – David McKinley (R)

McKinley won by 457 votes over Mike Oliviero, who had defeated ethically tainted incumbent Alan Mollohan in the Democratic primary by running to the right. The new Representatve is hardly safe with a margin like that, but this is the sort of seat that does not flip back to the Democrats once it is gone. The district needs to gain only about 7,000 people in redistricting. LEAN REPUBLICAN.

House 2 – Shelley Moore Capito (R)

The Central West Virginia district has become a Republican seat, and Capito entrenched herself. The seat will lose 25,000 people in redistricting. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 3 – Nick Rahall (D)

This rural Southern West Virginia seat has developed a Republican lean in national races. Rahall has rarely faced a challenge in his 34 years in Congress, but this Republican year was easy for him. Still, Rahall is the Ranking Democrat on the Resources Committee, and thus was an excellent position to defend the coal industry so vital in this district. He managed to win 55%-45%. Rahall will continue to be favored, but as West Virginia slowly shifts Republican, he should see more challenges. His district will need to pick up about 17,000 people in redistricting. LEAN DEMOCRAT.

State of the Day - Washington

2011-05-08T14:01:00.000-04:00

Washington is perhaps America's hippest state and with companies like Starbucks, Amazon, Boeing, and Microsoft, definitely one of its most economically productive. Washington began life as a west coast port and mining country, leading to polarized politics. The state boomed around World War II due to heavy government investment in hydroelectric power and armaments. Washington seemed a serene island of production until Seattle exploded in riots and protests during World Trade Organization meetings in 1999. Boeing cut back on jobs in the state and the tech bust hurt badly. Still, Washington is doing okay. Politically, Washington was traditionally among the most Democratic states in the union, and while it leans Democratic today it is more competitive than in the past. Seattle is heavily Democratic and South and East Washington vote heavily Republican, leaving the Seattle suburbs to cast the deciding votes. The state adopted Louisiana style "jungle primaries" in 2008, but this has yet to make a difference in any major election.

2010 showed Republican strength as the party captured the swing seat of retiring Democratic Rep. Brian Baird. However, for the third time in six years Republican Dino Rossi fell just short in a statewide race, losing narrowly to Democratic Senator Patty Murray. There is no reason to believe the Republicans will be able to break through statewide in 2012.

Washington gained one seat in reapportionment. The state has a redistricting commission designed to create relatively non-partisan plans. The new seat will probably need to be based in the Seattle suburbs, which would make it quite likely to be a competitive seat. If Republicans push to shore up Representatives Jamie Herrera and Dave Reichert, this would make the new seat more Democratic leaning.

President – 12 Electoral Votes

Washington is the mirror image of a North Carolina or Indiana. On balance it is clearly a Democratic state. Yet, Republicans could clearly win it if Republicans won a solid national victory. If it were in the Eastern Time Zone it might provide a decent barometer for Election Night watchers, but since it is on the West Coast and counts votes at the pace of your average corporate litigation, it usually gets lost in the shuffle. TOSSUP DEMOCRAT.

Governor – Christine Gregoire (D)

Gregoire has run five points behind the Democratic presidential candidate in each of her two elections, needing a contentious recount to win the office in 2004. A July, 2010 SurveyUSA poll showed her approval rating at a rock bottom 29%, making it highly unlikely she can win reelection in 2012. Dino Rossi, loser in 2004 and 2008, has expressed interest in the past. However, he lost again in 2010 to Senator Patty Murray, which really ruins his appeal. Attorney General Rob McKenna is the strongest Republican possibility. Rep. Dave Reichert and Seattle Port Commission President Bill Bryant are also Republican possibilities. Gregoire is widely expected to retire, and if she does Democratic prospects will improve considerably to the point of giving them a massive edge. LEAN DEMOCRAT.

Senior Senator – Patty Murray (D)

Murray got her strongest race yet in a terrible Democratic year. In the end, Republican Dino Rossi fell short again 52%-48%. Murray should continue to see strong challenges, but would have to be favored in 2016. TOSSUP DEMOCRAT.

Junior Senator – Maria Cantwell (D)

Cantwell is similarly situated to Murray for 2012. An August PPP poll showed her leading Rep. Dave Reichert by six points and Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers by eight points, but falling under 50% against both. If the climate remains toxic for Democrats, Cantwell could have a problem. If both Reichert and McMorris pass, the nomination will probably fall to former news anchor and failed King County candidate Susan Hutchison, who would probably pose a far less serious challenge. LEAN DEMOCRAT.

House 1 – Jay Inslee (D)

Inslee lost in 1994, but that was in a much less Democratic district. This Seattle area district needs to lose about 77,000 people. LIKELY DEMOCRAT.

House 2 – Rick Larsen (D)

This is a pretty even district that encompasses Everett, Bellingham, and the San Juan Islands. Larsen has generally had an easy go of things since winning this seat in 2000. In the big Republican year of 2010, his margin was down to 51%-49%. The seat needs to lose about 87,000 people, but it will be hard to make it more Democratic because the Republican part of the district is near the Canadian border.
TOSSUP DEMOCRAT.

House 3 – Jaime Herrera (R)

In a year like this one, it would be very hard for the Democrats to hold onto a seat like this one in Southwest Washingon vacated by moderate Democrat Brian Baird. They didn't, as Herrera won 53%-47%. The seat needs to shed 106,000 people, giving the Redistricting Commission the option to stregthen Herrera. However, doing so will make the new district more Democratic. TOSSUP REPUBLICAN.

House 4 – Doc Hastings (R)

This is an aggressively Republican Central Washington district that will not elect a Democrat. It will lose 76,000 people in redistricting. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 5 – Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R)

This East Washington district isn’t quite as Republican as the Fourth, but McMorris Rodgers has no actual competition. It will lose about 43,000 people. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 6 – Norm Dicks (D)

Dicks is entrenched in this Democratic leaning seat, winning 58%-42% in a terrible Democratic year. The Suburban Seattle Western Washington seat will lose only about 35,000 people in redistricting. LIKELY DEMOCRAT.

House 7 – Jim McDermott (D)

Republicans fit this Seattle district about as well as Charlie Sheen would having tea with the Queen. If the controversial McDermott was going anywhere, he would have already gone. The seat is only about 13,000 people over the equal population standard. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

House 8 – Dave Reichert (R)

Reichert was a local celebrity in suburban Seattle for his work in catching the Green River Killer, Gary Ridgway. Even so, he had strong opposition in 2006 and 2008 in this marginal seat. His survival was impressive. The much improved Republican political climate gave him a much stronger starting position, so much so that his 52%-48% win seems unimpressive. The seat needs to shed about 123,000 people. This might give Reichert a more Republican district, at the cost of making the new seat more Democratic. Otherwise, Reichert will continue to have close races. TOSSUP REPUBLICAN.

House 9 – Adam Smith (D)

This is not the famous economist. Rather, he represents a suburban seat which runs between Seattle and Olympia and leans Democratic. His 54%-46% win was impressive in a year like 2010. The seat will lose 62,000 people, which probably won't hurt Smith LEAN DEMOCRAT.

No Good Answers in Pakistan

2011-05-07T19:56:00.002-04:00

Since September 11, 2001, our relations with Pakistan have taken center stage. That nation, first under military dictator Pervez Musharraf and now under the democratically elected Asif Ali Zardari, has described itself as an ally of the United States against extreme Islamic terrorists. Publicly, our nation takes the same line. Of course, the reality is not nearly so simple. Pakistan was one of the few nations to recognize the Taliban, it has been somewhat less than vigorous in closing its border with Afganistan and pursuing terrorist operatives in the sparsely populated Northwest Provinces. Now, it appears that Osama bin Laden had been living in a heavily armed compound literally across the street from the Pakistani Military Academy for as long as five years.

Clearly, the gut reaction for the United States is to throw up our hands in exasperation and wonder what kind of friends we have. It's also quite easy to say that we should "get tough" with Pakistan. Indeed, this was a common theme among Presidential aspirants in 2008. Barack Obama was perhaps the leading proponent of such an approach during the campaign, but his administration has kept up the status quo with Pakistan diplomatically. Why is that?

We know three things about Pakistan:

1. Pakistan is not a stable country with entrenched civil institutions, and it never has been.

2. There is sizable bloc of fundamentalist Islamists in Pakistan that does not approve of the Western led "War on Terror", and this group is capable of adding to the instability of the goverment.

3. All facets of Pakistani society maintain a hatred and distrust of India.

These are the factors that guide Pakistan's action. Unfortunately, there isn't much we can do about that. There is little to nothing that the United States can do to help build a stable civil society in Pakistan. The U.S. has not been particularly effective in doing this in nations that we have occupied, so the idea of doing it in such a complex society that we don't occupy is pretty clearly beyond U.S. capabilities. There is also little the United States, can do, at least in the short term, to eliminate radical Islam in Pakistan.

It might be more effective to approach Pakistan from the back door by making efforts to defuse tensions with India. Again, however, this is not easy. The hatred between the two nations goes back generations. This creates a vicious circle. The constant vigilance against India ensures that the Pakistani Army remains the dominant institution in Pakistan, which is a long term hurdle in establishing civil society. Pakistan has also used the Indian "threat" as an excuse to maintain close ties with the Taliban and other Islamic terrorist groups. Of course, when these groups carry out actions in India, it heightens tensions, which exacerbates the problem. It also ensures both India and Pakistan will retain their nuclear weapons, which remain vulnerable should Pakistan come to be controlled by extremists.

That said, if India and Pakistan could manage to come to some sort of understanding, this would relieve the pressure that Pakistan feels constantly surrounding it, both literally and figuratively. Barring that, Pakistan will remain driven by these less than ideal factors. They may frustrate us, but there is certainly a possibility that Pakistan could be taken over by even worse groups. Think Iran with nuclear weapons. Really, preventing this from happening is the primary goal of our Pakistani policy, which explains the machinations involved.

State of the Day - Virginia

2011-05-07T12:23:00.000-04:00

As the first and biggest of the original thirteen colonies, Virginia did much to establish the United States and played a big part in the traditions and ideals that would create, and nearly destroy, it. The white landed aristocracy dominated Virginia through the Civil War and well into the mid-20th century. In the second half of the twentieth century, the state changed as African-Americans were allowed to vote, the population shifted away from rural areas, and the DC suburbs boomed. This has led to political shifts changing partisan control of the state about once a decade since the 1970's. Republicans used the tax issue to take control of the state in the 1990's. Moderate Democrat Mark Warner won the Governor's Mansion in 2001 with a broad based victory, inaugurating a decade that saw the Democrats surge in the state. Yet most of the Democratic success in the state, wins by Tim Kaine for Governor in 2005, Jim Webb for Senate in 2006, and Barack Obama for President in 2008, relied heavily on huge Democratic margins in Northern Virginia. The suburbs here have shifted toward the Republicans, as they have nationally since President Obama took office, leading to the landslide election of Republican Robert McDonnell as Governor in 2009.

2010 marked another course correction in Virginia politics. Republicans picked up two Republican leaning House seats, the Second and Fifth Districts, that had previously dumped weak Republican incumbents in 2008. They also beat longtime moderate Democratic Rep. Rick Boucher in an area that had trended Republican in most other races. They failed by a narrow margin to oust first term Rep. Gerald Connolly out of the Northern Virginia suburban Eleventh District.

Virginia should continue to be a competitive state in 2012. The mercurial Senator Jim Webb decided to retire, setting up a probable clash between past peak political superstars, Republican former Governor (1994-98) and Senator (2001-2007) George Allen and Democratic former Governor (2006-2010) Tim Kaine. Barack Obama carried Virginia for the Democrats for the first time since 1964, but Republicans probably have to carry Virginia to beat him. Virginia did not gain a new House seat. The Legislature is split, so look for a status quo plan. Republicans would probably like to strengthen their freshmen in the Second and Fifth Districts, but to do so will probably have to agree to strengthen Gerald Connolly and keep the Tenth District winnable for a Democrat if longtime GOP Rep. Frank Wolf retires. Any adoption of a plan for U.S. House districts is delayed indefinitely while the legislature and Governor McDonnell try to resolve a huge row over state legislative districts in time for this fall's elections.

President – 13 Electoral Votes

As the DC suburbs of Northern Virginia have grown larger and more Democratic, Virginia has trended rapidly toward the Democrats. Bob Dole ran seven points ahead of his national showing in winning Virginia in 1996. George W. Bush twice ran three points ahead of his average. Barack Obama won Virginia by 53-46, exactly his national showing. If Republicans cannot check this trend, Virginia will be a Democratic leaning state in a decade. For now, however, I would guess that the state is still just a hair Republican. Barack Obama organized heavily here, and John McCain most certainly did not, which probably gave the Democrat a couple of points. Obama has not seemed to “take” here as President, and this means that Virginia is in serious danger of flipping back toward the Republicans in 2012. If Obama continues to poll in a way that indicates he his headed for a national defeat, it is hard to see him carrying Virginia. Conversely, in the current political lineup it is hard to see a Republican winning the White House without Virginia.

Virginia has moved its primary to the first Tuesday in March, placing it on the same date with Texas and Ohio. If the race continues past Super Tuesday, these states should be very important. Evangelicals are a huge presence here and I would expect a Huckabee type to have an edge over a Romney/Daniels. Mike Huckabee won 41% here in 2008 even though his campaign was effectively over the week before. Having said that, none of the evangelically oriented candidates are looking particularly strong, so this could be a wide open contest. LEAN REPUBLICAN.

Governor – Robert McDonnell (R)

Virginia is the last state to limit its governors to one term. Lt. Governor Bill Bolling stood aside for McDonnell in 2009 and presumably will want to be the 2013 GOP nominee. However, Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli has become a favorite of conservatives as one of the more visible participants in lawsuits to strike down Obamacare. He looks likely to stake a claim as well and should be in excellent position to take the state convention. Democrats are seemingly lacking a candidate at the moment, as the two names most often mentioned are 2009 failure/Clinton Family ATM Terry McAuliffe and State Sen. Mark Herring. Virginia has elected a Governor of the opposite party of the President for almost forty years now, and it probably will again in 2013. TOSSUP REPUBLICAN.

Senior Senator – Jim Webb (D)

I cannot describe Webb any better than former Virginia Democratic Chair Paul Goldman and my old professor Mark Rozell did when they referred to him as "the Frank 'I Did It My Way' Sinatra of the Senate." True to form, Webb elected to retire after one term. This sets up what should be one of the more competitive races of the 2012 cycle.

The favorite for the Republican nomination is former Rep. (1991-93), Governor (1994-1998) and Senator (2001-2007) George Allen. He was considered a major national star until narrowly losing reelection to Webb in 2006. That race saw Allen run one of the worst campaigns of modern times featuring macacas, nooses, racy novels, a bizarre revelation about his Jewish heritage, and spending the last weekend of the election campaigning in the parking lot at FedEx Field (which happens to be in Maryland). Still, he almost won anyway in a horrible Republican year, has terrific name recognition, and by sheer regression to the mean should run a better campaign. How much better will probably determine whether he can win in a neutral environment. His immediate problem is that he looks likely to get a challenge from his right in the form of Delegate Robert Marshall, Tea Partier Jamie Radtke, or Prince William Board of Supervisors Chairman Corey Stewart. Allen starts as a favorite, especially given the party will use a primary instead of the normal convention, but given Allen's problems and the success of insurgent candidates in 2010, he is not a shoo-in.

After much recruiting national Democrats got their preferred candidate in the form of former Governor (2006-2010) and DNC Chairman Tim Kaine. While he still faces potential primary challenges from Rep. Bobby Scott or former Reps. Rick Boucher or Tom Perriello, Kaine should have all the institutional support and is very likely to be the nominee. Kaine, like Allen, was once of his party's brightest stars as a popular Governor of a swing state and widely considered a future cabinet member, or even Vice President. While not crashing as spectacularly as Allen, Kaine's star dimmed somewhat during a rough final year as Governor and a miserable tenure at the DNC. Still, he remains a formidable candidate.

The Republicans have potential to run off the rails if Allen bombs again or the party nominates an unelectable right winger. Assuming it is Allen vs. Kaine next fall, however, the race should be very close and very competitive. Early polls show the race very close, and I do not see that changing. The deciding factor is likely to be the national climate in which this race takes place. I would be suprised if the outcome differed by more than a point from the Presidential race. TOSSUP REPUBLICAN.

Junior Senator – Mark Warner (D)

Unlike other Democrats who have won statewide in the last decade, Warner has demonstrated broad appeal beyond the Democratic base in Northern Virginia as a popular former Governor. He is not likely to have trouble winning reelection in 2014 barring an extreme anti-Democratic mood. LIKELY DEMOCRAT.

House 1 – Rob Wittman (R)

Democrat Krystal Ball did not forsee her 64%-35% defeat in 2010. This meandering district, which includes Fredericksburg, Williamsburg, and part of the Hampton Roads area, is a mostly Republican district where the Democrats could not top 42% in the best climate imaginable with a Presidential candidate who had a strong organization turning out votes. It needs to lose 46,000 people in redistricting. That will probably be used to shore up Scott Rigell in the Second District. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 2 – Scott Rigell (R)

This Virginia Beach/Norfolk district is the home of Pat Robertson and leans Republican, though Obama did carry it 51%-48%. That victory swept Republican Glenn Nye into office 52%-47% over the perennially underwhelming incumbent Thelma Drake. Nye acted conservatively in office but had no chance in the 2010 environment, losing 53%-43% to Rigell, who looks like a comer in the Republican Party. This seat needs to gain about 42,000 people, which should help give Rigell a boost. LEAN REPUBLICAN.

House 3 – Bobby Scott (D)

This seat is carefully drawn to put blacks between Norfolk and Richmond into a black majority district. While the seat needs to add 40,000 residents, no one can doubt that there will be a majority black seat safe for Scott. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

House 4 – Randy Forbes (R)

Forbes escaped two Democratic cycles without a serious challenge in this Republican leaning suburban Richmond and surrounds seat. Forbes should continue cruising, minus 17,000 constituents after redistricting. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 5 – Robert Hurt (R)

Democrat Tom Perriello won this Republican leaning rural Southern Virginia seat in 2008 by 727 votes over Virgil Goode, an incumbent who had a tendency to stick his foot in his mouth. Perriello was obviously going to be very vulnerable under any circumstance. Perriello, an earnest liberal, did everything people say they want their Congressman to do. He worked his district hard and voted for what he thought was right regardless of pressure. He then proved why so few politicians do that, losing 51%-47% to Hurt. In all actuality, Perriello was probably helpless no matter what he did in a year like 2010. This seat needs to pick up about 34,000 new people and is surrounded by Republican territory. Democrats have proven they can be competitive here, but winning this seat back will be difficult. TOSSUP REPUBLICAN.

House 6 – Bob Goodlatte (R)

Nothing to see here. The Northwest Virginia seat is safely Republican, but needs to pick up 22,000 new people. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 7 – Eric Cantor (R)

This Central Virginia district isn’t totally Republican, but the Majority Leader will be very difficult to beat. The district needs to shed about 30,000 people, which might help Robert Hurt. LIKELY REPUBLICAN.

House 8 – Jim Moran (D)

Moran’s frequent ethical peccadilloes make him continually vulnerable to a primary challenger. However, the Arlington/Alexandria district is filled with government employees, making it impossible for Republicans. It needs to pick up 38,000 people, which will make the district a tad less Democratic but still nowhere near competitive. SAFE DEMOCRAT.

House 9 – Morgan Griffith (R)

This Southwest Virginia seat is one of those dwindling number of districts that voted heavily Republican for most everything but sent its culturally conservative longtime Democratic Representative to Washington every two years. Like almost all of these districts, it quit voting for the Democrat in 2010 and sent 28 year Democrat Rick Boucher packing 51%-47%. The new Congressman, Griffith, should find himself in very strong shape going forward. The seat will need to add 55,000 people. LEAN REPUBLICAN.

House 10 – Frank Wolf (R)

This should be a swing district in Northern Virginia, but Wolf is obviously popular. In a horrible 2008, he checked a strong challenge 59%-39%, running 13 points ahead of John McCain. Wolf won 63%-35% in 2010. The district will need to shed an eye popping 86,000 people in redistricting. That will probably come from a more rural area which will be transferred to Bob Goodlatte's seat, and could make this district more Democratic should Wolf retire. SAFE REPUBLICAN.

House 11 – Gerald Connolly (D)

This Fairfax based seat is still a swing seat, though it had trendly sharply Democratic this decade. However, Fairfax County voted for Robert McDonnell in 2009, and Connolly won by 920 votes against the same (less than ideal) candidate he stomped 55%-43% two years earlier. The seat does need to shed 47,000 people. That will probably come out of the Manassas/Prince William County portion of the seat, which would help Connolly. He still may have a problem if Democrats don't recover their suburban mojo. TOSSUP DEMOCRAT.